Playoff picture sharpening
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American Southwest Conference
Pool A favorite: No. 10 Hardin-Simmons (7-1, 5-1 ASC)
Pool C possibilities: No. 5 Mary Hardin-Baylor (6-1, 4-1 ASC), excellent
Mathematically still in it: Howard Payne (5-3, 5-2 ASC)
Key games remaining: McMurry at UMHB, Nov. 5; HSU at Texas Lutheran, Nov. 12
Hardin-Simmons is the odds-on favorite to win the conference after slipping past McMurry (5-3, 4-3 ASC) last weekend. Any combination of two HSU wins and/or UMHB losses locks up the title for the Cowboys. With games against Austin (1-7, 1-6 ASC) and suddenly disappointing Texas Lutheran (4-4, 4-3 ASC), it seems likely that Hardin-Simmons will once again claim the ASC crown. Their reward, however, will likely be a road trip in Week 1.
For those of you just joining us: despite defeating Hardin-Simmons, Mary Hardin-Baylor can only win the conference championship by winning out and having Hardin-Simmons loses one of its last two games. The Crusaders “lost” a game to Hurricane Rita, and that will cause them to be one-half game behind in the standings should the two teams end the season with the same number of losses.
Howard Payne can qualify for the playoffs only if HSU loses both of its remaining games and UMHB loses at least one. The Yellow Jackets own a head-to-head tiebreaker only against UMHB. A three-way tie is also possible should both HSU and UMHB lose one of their two remaining games. We’ll worry more about that unlikely scenario should it come to pass.
Southern Collegiate Athletic Conference
Pool A favorite: No. 9 Trinity, Texas (7-0, 3-0 SCAC)
Pool C possibilities: DePauw (6-1, 4-0 SCAC), slight
Mathematically still in it: Sewanee (4-4, 3-1 SCAC)
Key games remaining: Trinity at Sewanee, Nov. 5; DePauw at No. 20 Wabash, Nov. 12
Trinity, which seems to be pulling its act together after stumbling earlier in the season, can clinch the team’s ninth consecutive playoff appearance by winning its remaining two games. DePauw can clinch a share of the conference championship on Saturday against Rose-Hulman (5-3, 2-2 SCAC). Since the two conference leaders did not play (again, thanks to Hurricane Rita), new tiebreakers will determine the SCAC playoff representative should the teams end up tied. The first tiebreaker is total number of losses (all games) which favors Trinity.
With only a narrow loss in Week 1, DePauw could make it to the south region top ten this week after losses by two teams on last week’s list. To have any chance at a Pool C bid, the Tigers from Greencastle absolutely must defeat No. 20 Wabash (8-0) in the season-ending Monon Bell game.
Sewanee could throw a giant monkey wrench into Trinity’s chances with a win on their home field on Saturday. Since losing 34-0 to DePauw four weeks ago, John Windham’s squad has climbed into third place in the SCAC on the strength of road wins against Rose-Hulman and Millsaps (1-6, 0-4 SCAC). Sewanee still has a chance to represent the conference by winning out should Rose-Hulman upset DePauw. Sewanee’s resurgence has a lot to do with the return of quarterback Wesley Satterfield. The team is 3-1 with Satterfield as a starter, during which time he has averaged over 115 yards per game rushing. He also has completed nearly 60 percent of his passes. You can bet Trinity will be paying him a lot of attention come Saturday.
Independents
Pool B/C possibilities: Huntingdon (6-1), slight
Key games: at Westminster (Mo.), Nov. 5
Third-year program Huntingdon still has a chance to get in the playoffs, but it has to win out and hope that a couple of the better known Pool B candidates lose between now and Selection Sunday. Last week’s blowout loss by Salisbury (6-2) was a good start. This week’s game against Westminster, Mo., (5-4) should be a good chance for the Hawks to show how far they have come, and provide a badly needed boost to the team’s Quality of Wins Index. With 1-7 Maryville as the season finale, the team’s relatively low QoWI could be the difference between a Pool B/C bid and not making the playoffs. It would seem to be a pity for Huntingdon to sit at home when their only loss of the season was to undefeated Trinity 15-10.
Who goes where?
Let’s consider where teams will end up. There are eight seeds in each of four brackets. The brackets used to be “East,” “West,” “North,” and “South,” but the NCAA changed that a couple of years ago and now it’s 32 teams nationally that get to go. The NCAA’s South Region (which includes the ASC, SCAC, ODAC, USAC, ACFC) is not as strong as in years past, but it’s also not the weakest region. It seems likely that eight teams will get in this year. We’ll assume for argument’s sake that the “likely” trio of Hardin-Simmons, Mary Hardin-Baylor, and Trinity get in. Who gets to play at home?
The NCAA’s regional rankings give us a good clue as to how the teams will be seeded. Last week was the first time this season for the rankings, which were as follows:
1. Trinity (Texas) 5-0, 6-0
2. Ferrum 7-0, 7-0
3. Mary Hardin-Baylor 4-1, 5-1
4. Thiel 7-0, 7-0
5. Bridgewater (Va.) 4-1, 5-1
6. Hardin-Simmons 5-1, 6-1
7. Johns Hopkins 6-0, 7-0
8. Salisbury 2-0, 6-1
9. Washington and Jefferson 5-1, 7-1
10. Wesley 4-0, 7-1
Johns Hopkins and Salisbury both lost and should be out of this week’s rankings. The rankings are supposed to take into account all the factors that the NCAA does in seeding playoff teams, though seasoned observers can’t justify why Ferrum and not Thiel was ranked No. 2. The records above indicate “in-region” and overall records, respectively.
In an ideal world, the No. 1 seed hosts the No. 8, No. 2 the No. 7, No. 3 the No. 6, and No. 4 hosts No. 5. The 1/8 winner faces the 4/5 winner, the 2/7 the 3/6, with those winners meeting in the regional finals. The NCAA, in its infinite penny-pinching wisdom, mandates that geography trumps seeds whenever and wherever they can save the expense of a plane trip. What that continually means is that the teams based in Texas are matched up until only one is left, as it’s a plane trip for any of them to play anyone else.
Given the information available today, the most likely scenario has Trinity hosting Hardin-Simmons, and Mary Hardin-Baylor hosting someone from out of state. We don’t know who, yet. If Huntingdon should make it to the playoffs, they would likely be the ones sent to Waco as they too are a plane trip from anyone. If two Texas teams survive the first round, they will meet in the second round at site of the higher seeded team.
The only people who come out ahead when this happens are the comptrollers of the NCAA. It’s unfair to the top ranked team (Trinity) to have to face someone besides No. 8, and it’s unfair to the lower ranked team (Hardin-Simmons) to have to face No. 1 in the first round instead of No. 3. Should Trinity and UMHB win the first round, it’s unfair to have No. 1 meet No. 3 in the second round rather than the regional final. Unfortunately, the NCAA long ago placed finances first, fairness second.
HSU continues to win despite adversity
Hardin-Simmons turned back a determined bid by crosstown rival McMurry, but the win was not without cost. The Cowboys, who previously lost quarterback Jordan Neal for the year, lost Jordy Bernhard for the season on Saturday. They now face the prospect of completing their season with sophomore Ryan Hinojoza at the helm. Hinojoza, No. 3 on the depth chart when the season began, completed 12 of 18 for 171 yards, three touchdowns, but two interceptions. The win, the 18th straight in the bitterly contested series, came despite a bravura effort from McMurry’s Ty Sellers. Sellers led all rushers with 105 yards on 26 carries, including five sacks, and completed 17 of 27 passes for 213 yards and two scores. Sellers guided the Indians to a 25-19 lead on the second play of the fourth quarter. A poorly executed onside attempt on the ensuing kickoff set HSU up with a short field and took the air out of McMurry’s sails. HSU outscored McMurry 17-0 down the stretch to take a hard-earned 36-25 win.
Sellers ended the day with 1,007 yards, becoming the first McMurry rusher over 1,000 yards in a single season since 1990. What a shame that this will be Sellers’ only season at McMurry – you wonder what a difference he could make with more than a single season to work with the team.
For their part, Hardin-Simmons fervently hopes this is the last quarterback injury they’ll have to deal with. With both Bernhard and Neal out for the season, Hinojoza’s backup is a sophomore transfer - listed at slot back!
Trinity starts to get its groove on
Those of us wondering when Trinity would start to live up to its lofty rankings have seen progress the last two weeks. The Tigers put together their best road effort of the season to defeat Rhodes (2-6, 0-4 SCAC). The Lynx, who two weeks ago lost 7-3 to DePauw, had no answers in the 34-6 defeat. Jacob Cannon put Trinity’s nascent quarterback controversy to rest with a interception-free 13-for-22, 222-yard performance which yielded two touchdowns. Donny Palmertree had interceptions on successive Rhodes plays, and Dustin Allen added two more sacks in his eight tackles. Rhodes’ defense had a total of five sacks, led by Daniel Brunner’s three. Trinity’s “Black Flag” defense limited Rhodes to 168 yards, 61 in the second half. Second-half defensive adjustments seem to be a big part of Trinity’s success, in fact; the team has now outscored opponents 56-0 in the third quarter.
My South Region Top Five
No. 9 Trinity
No. 5 Mary Hardin-Baylor
No. 10 Hardin-Simmons
Huntingdon
DePauw
Honorable mention: Howard Payne (5-3, 5-2 ASC)
I’ve flipped Huntingdon and DePauw this week as DPU has had two unimpressive wins at home against mediocre opponents (7-3 vs, Rhodes, 14-7 against Centre – and the Colonels had first-and-goal late in the fourth but couldn’t covert). What happened to DePauw’s offense? The defense is getting the job done.
On the other hand, I’m happy to see that both Huntingdon and DePauw received votes in this week’s D3football.com Top 25.
Next week
You may not see a column next week as I get on the big bird for company business early Monday morning and have most of Sunday already booked up. We’ll see.
Questions, comments, and story ideas are always welcome: ron.boerger@d3football.com.