An early look at playoff picture

By Mike Safford Jr. (posted Oct. 18)

With the release of this week's AFCA Division III poll, the top 21 teams in the nation did not shift, which brings to mind a question -- will the Pacific region get any of the 28 berths into the 2000 playoffs?

Pacific Lutheran, the defending national champion, remained No. 9, while Linfield, who defeated PLU 38-28 earlier this season, sits at No. 13. But does that really matter?

"The funny thing about the whole scenario is that the AFCA poll has no real basis on the selection committee's decision regarding the playoffs," said Nick Dawson, PLU sports information director.

There are many national polls for Division III football, ranging from the aforementioned Coaches Poll, to the Columbus Multimedia ranking, and the Dunkel Power Index -- but unlike the Division I Bowl Championship Series, where power ratings and national rankings are key, other criteria are used.

No, the Northwest Conference or the Southern California Intercollegiate Conference champions do not receive automatic berths (a conference needs to have at least seven football-playing schools). No, the defending national champs do not get a free ticket. But some teams do.

Twenty-eight teams are selected to the national playoffs and will be grouped into four seven-team brackets. 

The playoff berths are divided into three categories.  Pool A berths are given to 17 conference champions from across the nation, none of which reside in the Pacific Region.  Pool C berths are given to four teams in those conferences that receive the automatic qualifiers (AQ) that do not win the conference championship.  That leaves seven Pool B spots -- for independents and teams from conferences that do not receive AQ's, like the NWC and SCIAC.

PLU and Willamette took advantage of the system last season, each receiving a Pool B bid, facing each other in the first round of the playoffs.  "With PLU's success last season, it gives the Northwest Conference a shot at receiving one, maybe two berths into the playoffs this season," said Steve Flegel, Whitworth SID.

Strength of schedule, record against opponents within the region, and records against Division III opponents all rank heavily in the minds of the selection committee.

Many have been critical of the SCIAC and West Independents and the strength of their schedule as a reason for teams not receiving playoff berths.  Others say the NWC gained a great reputation with its success at the NAIA level.  No matter what, it all comes down to a numbers game.

With four weeks left in the season, here is my best guess as who has a shot to earn a playoff berth.

1. Pacific Lutheran (2-1 NWC, 5-1 overall): Yes, the Lutes have a loss.  But PLU has handled DIII opponents Cal Lutheran (49-7) and Eastern Oregon (61-36) with ease, routed Lewis and Clark (62-6), and won at Whitworth (34-28).  With last year in the back of everyone's mind, and the fact that the Lutes have received a bid the past two seasons, they are the best bet to receive a Pool B berth.

2. Linfield (1-0, 5-0): The Wildcats might in fact have the upper edge, with an undefeated record and a victory over PLU.  The squad has played West Region independents Menlo (31-30) and Eastern Oregon (43-28), defeated Whittier (43-7) of the SCIAC on the road, along with Southern Oregon (23-11), which was ranked No. 5 in the NAIA National Poll at the time.  Linfield still must face the bulk of the NWC schedule, including Whitworth, Willamette and upstart Puget Sound, but 45-consecutive winning seasons and a rich playoff tradition (three NAIA titles) will help their cause.

3. Puget Sound (2-0, 4-1): After 0-9, 2-7, and 1-8 seasons, it is scary to put the Loggers in this club.  However, UPS has won four games in a row, including last week's 17-7 win over previously unbeaten Pomona-Pitzer.  Puget Sound has defeated Claremont (30-27) and Willamette (17-14) on the road, and defeated Lewis and Clark (42-35) at home.  The Loggers did lose to Simon Fraser (24-20), which puts them behind the eight-ball.  However, victories against Linfield and Pacific Lutheran down the stretch will help the Loggers cause.

4. Redlands (2-0 SCIAC, 4-2): It looks like the Bulldogs may be able to run the table in conference, with only Occidental (2-0, 4-1) standing in their way.  Losses to Azusa Pacific (56-30) and Lewis and Clark (21-17) will hurt their chances in a big way.  Last season also looms on their mind, when Redlands finished 7-2 and did not receive a Pool B berth.  However, the national committee has chosen the Bulldogs twice in the past, so anything is possible.

As the "Second Season" draws closer, have fun looking at the polls, but know that the selection committee is looking elsewhere.

Willamette to be featured on Fox Sports Net
Being different can make a difference.  This week, the Fox Sports weekly college football show, The Slant, will feature the Willamette football team and its "Fly" offense. The Bearcats are the only NCAA program that uses the unique offense and will showcase it to the world. In the five-plus years head coach Mark Speckman has been on the Willamette coaching staff, the Bearcats have broken 33 offensive school records, including 738 yards of total offense in a game (versus Bethany (Kan.), 1996) and 554 yards rushing in a game (versus Montana Tech, 1997). The Slant can be seen Tuesday and Thursday at 3:30 Pacific on your local Fox Sports affiliate.

Another crazy game for Cal Lutheran
Last week, Cal Lutheran withstood a 731 yard passing performance and won.  This week, the Kingsmen scored 51 points and lost.  Luke Winslow connected with Kevin Carlsen from 9-yards out as time expired, giving Azusa Pacific a 54-51 victory.  CLU (0-1 SCIAC, 2-3) jumped out to a 27-0 first quarter lead, but watched the Cougars, ranked No. 11 in the NAIA, rally for the improbable victory.  Running back Dorian Stitt tied the CLU school-record with four touchdowns, and rushed for 201 yards on 30 carries.

Poets end streak
Freddie Lee galloped in from 5 yards out late in the third quarter and the Whittier defense held strong, as the Poets ended their 13-game losing streak with a 24-17 victory against Claremont-Mudd-Scripps.  Quarterback Mark Mejia threw for 204 yards and ran for 74 for Whittier (1-0, 1-4), who despite four non-conference losses, are in the SCIAC race.  Ryan Gocong had another solid effort for the Stags (0-3, 2-4), 138 yards on 34 carries and two touchdowns.

Around the region
Occidental (4-1, 2-0) got an early jump with a fumble recovery on the opening kickoff and ran away from Chapman 48-20.  The Tigers opened with a six play, 35-yard drive to open a lead, and outscored the Panthers (1-5) 27-0 in the third quarter. ... Defensive lineman Kris Jower tackled LaVerne running back James Evans in the end zone late in the third quarter, breaking a 10-10 tie, as Redlands (4-2, 2-0) remained unbeaten in SCIAC play with a 22-10 win over the Leopards (1-4, 1-2).  Brandon Ford rushed for 139 yards for the victors. ... Brian Siu grabbed touchdown passes of 87 and 50-yards as Puget Sound (2-0 NWC, 4-1) defeated Pomona-Pitzer (4-1) 17-7. Siu caught seven passes for 201 yards, as the Loggers got revenge from last year's 57-43 loss to the Sagehens. ... Pacific Lutheran (5-1, 2-1) set a school record for victory margin as the Lutes routed Lewis and Clark 62-6.  PLU gained 644 yards of total offense and never punted against the Pioneers (1-4, 0-2). ... Tim Wolfmeyer caught a 46-yard touchdown pass from Chris Witt with 31 seconds left, giving Colorado College (3-3) a come-from-behind victory over Westminster (Mo.).  Joel Nelson rushed for 120 yards as the Tigers rallied from a fourth quarter deficit to beat the Blue Jays. ... Linfield (5-0, 2-0) assured itself an NCAA record 45th consecutive winning season with a 43-28 victory at Eastern Oregon (2-4).  The Wildcats built a 33-0 lead after three quarters, as Curt Musser went 25-for-34 for 327 yards and three touchdowns.  Marty Williams, making his first collegiate start after tailback Carl Haberberger was lost for the season against Whittier, rushed for 93 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries...Zamir Amin threw for 421 yards, 310 yards less than last week's record setting performance, but Menlo (2-4) fell again, this time to NCAA Division I-AA St. Mary's 71-34.  The Gaels set a modern day scoring record with the 71 points and ran up 725 total yards against the Oaks. ... Whitworth (3-2, 1-1) made a first quarter touchdown pass stand up, defeating Willamette (2-4, 0-2) 9-0, the Pirates' first victory over the Bearcats since 1992. Ty McGregor caught a first-quarter TD pass from Scott Biglin and Paul Alejo added a field goal as the Pirates forced four Willamette turnovers and a season low 133 yards of offense.

Game of the Week
Whitworth (3-2, 1-1 NWC) at Puget Sound (4-1, 2-0), Baker Stadium (Tacoma, Wash. ) 1:30 p.m.
A must-win game for both teams, especially for the Loggers if UPS is to remain atop the Northwest Conference standings.  Whitworth is riding high after shutting out Willamette, last year's NWC champ.  However, the Pirates will be without starting running back Jeremy Spencer (shoulder) and free safety K.C. McVey (ankle).  The load will be on the shoulders of Billy Condon (366 yards rushing) and defensive end Sky Blake (NWC leading 66 tackles, 13.2 per game).  Quarterback Craig Knapp (99-for-177, 991 yards, 9 TD, 5 int.) is the leader for UPS, with receivers Brian Siu (28 receptions, 465 yards, 4 TD) and Adrian Evans (28-263-4) his main targets.  The Loggers are looking for revenge of last year's 45-12 defeat and hope for their first victory against the Pirates since 1994. A UPS win will also give the Loggers their first winning season since 1987

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