A penny pinched …
Nov
2005
A penny pinched is still just a penny.
For the cost of one extra flight, the NCAA decided to pair up top 10 teams in the first round, not once, but twice. That’s just plain wrong.
I know the folks in Indianapolis are tired of hearing the term, but the shoe fits.
Perhaps it happens so often that I’ve become anesthetized to it, but the more I reflect on this bracket, the more upsetting it is. What’s the point of adding teams to the bracket if we’re still going to be stuck eliminating Top 10 teams so early?
The fascination over saving first-round flights is interesting, considering that the current policy guarantees second-round flights. When you eliminate one of the two Texas teams early, you guarantee someone flies to or from Texas for the duration of team’s life in the tournament. If you set them up to play in the second round, the reward comes later.
Besides, even if we are indeed to bow down to the altar of “geographic proximity,” why not put UW-Whitewater in the north and Lakeland in the West? Whitewater is much closer to Illinois, which is the gateway to the rest of this bracket. I know this committee has never done much for competitive balance, but how about at least following your own guidelines?
“Once selected, teams will be grouped in clusters according to natural geographic proximity.”
But apparently, only for reasons of saving money, not for balancing the bracket.
November 13th, 2005 at 7:04 pm
NCAA rules of thumb:
1) Don’t spend money on DIII athletics
2) Any questions, see rule 1
November 13th, 2005 at 7:16 pm
It is a bit disconcerting, as you could even tell from the ESPN anchor who, presumably, doesn’t have as much experience in D3 as we do. That’s pretty clear, but Pat is dead on in his analysis - we’re used to it. So is Jay Locey, and Steve Mohr, and Pete Fredenburg…
November 13th, 2005 at 11:07 pm
See, JT, that’s what bothers me. We got the increased money this year to expand the playoffs but we didn’t plan on an extra flight? Creative use of three flights could’ve done wonders here.
November 13th, 2005 at 11:11 pm
I think they took the easy way out when Hardin Simmons lost. It was like, hey, each region has eight teams now!
November 13th, 2005 at 11:15 pm
Thanks to ESPN for the coverage of the brackets. Let the games begin. We all could be in 1A and not have a playoff.
November 13th, 2005 at 11:20 pm
My Dad asks me why I display disdain for DI athletics. Even though I enjoy great games no matter the division. You’d think with all the millions they bring in, they’d drop more that a few hundred thou on the DIII playoffs.
They suck… and I say this after my team got a good draw.
November 14th, 2005 at 12:19 am
Well said, Pat. The committee could at least think about competitive balance when it would cost 0 dollars to do so. Also, the west and south play in the semifinal although they are definitely the strongest brackets. How does that make sense (or cents)?
Great job on TV, btw.
November 14th, 2005 at 12:31 am
I figure the West and South will play so that if the two top seeds advance, it’s just one flight, instead of two. The north and east may be able to drive to each other.
November 14th, 2005 at 12:34 am
Every season come playoff time I think back to what former Trinity great Jerheme Urban told me 3 years ago on selection Sunday. He told me that to be the best you’ve got to beat the best, and that getting into the second and third round of the playoffs isn’t the goal of any team. You’ve got to beat the good teams on the road to Salem.
It’s the right thing for a player to say, but is little consolation to fans.This is like opening presents on Christmas only to find that it’s a flaming bag of doggy doo. Guess I feel worse for Mary Hardin and Occy because they have to go on the road after great seasons. Stupid NCAA goons.
November 14th, 2005 at 12:41 am
Couldn’t agree more, Pat. How sad it is that #6 Occidental or #1 Linfield is going to be out after the first round. So much for seeing if the SCIAC can continue its momentum after the Tiger’s run last season. They were never even given a chance this year, despite going undefeated and a #6 ranking. #2 UWW and #3 SJU knocking each other out in the 2nd round? Give me a break. That’s a loss for all of D3. UWW could have given some added competition to the North, and maybe even made it to the semis. Now, we won’t hear from either them or the Johnnies after week two. Oh, and let’s have #4 UMHB and #8 Trinity play early YET AGAIN, so that after this Saturday we don’t get to hear from either of these solid teams anymore. Meanwhile, elsewhere there are much weaker teams playing, well….even weaker teams.
November 14th, 2005 at 1:13 am
I agree as well. As a Concordia-Moorhead fan, I wasn’t particularly happy about our setup (I don’t know much about Coe, but a potential second-round matchup at Linfield doesn’t sound too appealing), but I feel worse for Linfield. The #1 team in the country shouldn’t have to potentially play #6, #9, #2, #4, and #5 to win the national championship.
November 14th, 2005 at 1:41 am
I feel worse for Linfield. The #1 team in the country shouldn’t have to potentially play #6, #9, #2, #4, and #5 to win the national championship
Why not? I know that it is a tough road, but imagine the games we get to see along the way:
Linfield-Oxy
Linfield-Concordia Moorhead
Linfield-WhiteWater/central
Linfield-UMHB
UMHB/Linfield-MUC.
Of course these are just biased hopes, but man that could make for some great football games. And if Linfield were to go all the way, there would be no question about who’s the best
November 14th, 2005 at 7:33 am
I am new to D3 football so help me understand why Mt Union, Augustana and North Central all all ranked higher than Wabash, yet they are the 1 seed in their bracket?
November 14th, 2005 at 7:39 am
Rankings don’t mean anything. The NCAA has their methodology, which is found in the FAQ of the site.
To be honest, in any sport, the NCAA cares not a whit about rankings.
November 14th, 2005 at 8:21 am
Thanks for wading in on this, Pat. I was on the Play-off blog yesterday and one of the main themes was, they have always done it this way so live with it! I just think that pointing out the obvious unfairness regardless of what the history of the playoff matches has been can’t be a bad thing. The pressure of public opinion can do wonders some times, certainly not this year, but maybe for future choices by the committee. One more plane ride would have made a huge difference, huh? Unexcusable!
November 14th, 2005 at 8:43 am
In a perfect world, like Pat posted in Daily Dose, 1 would play 32, 2 would play 31, on down to 16 playing 17. But why pay all that money for college kids to fly (drive) all around the country for five weeks just so us fans can potentially have a Linfield/SJU/UW-Whitewater/MUC semifinals? Like it has already been mentioned, if one of those four schools is the best team in the country, they’ll have to beat one another at some point. Shoot, pretty much anyone (after the first round perhaps) has to play the best to get to the Stagg Bowl.
My team, Bridgewater, would potentially have to beat the #13 (W&J, then #14 (Thiel), then #4 (Mary Hardin-Baylor), then #7 (Delaware Valley) to get to the Stagg Bowl. If we are good enough to be playing for the championship, then we’ll have to beat four top 14 teams. Sure, Linfield will definitely have the toughest first round game (you could argue Trinity as well), but why would pairing the Wildcats with a Curry or Johns Hopkins in the first round (who they’d easily beat) make them anymore the champion than beating a top 10 team in the first round? I think if anything, it’ll make Linfield’s championship run MORE impressive if they knock off #6 (Oxy), #9 (C-Moorhead), #3 (SJU), #2 (UWW), and #4 (UMHB) to get to the Stagg Bowl.
Like it has already been mentioned, at least we don’t have the media (D3football.com), the coaches (AFCA), and various computers picking Linfield and UW-Whitewater to meet in the final. For most of us, it might be “picking a poison” by liking our system (along with DII and DI-AA) more than the DI-A one … but 32 schools currently have a chance to win the title (even if they’ve lost in the regular season) … that’s 30 more than DI-A will have come bowl time for them.
November 14th, 2005 at 8:55 am
Freedom1st,
I see those HOME playoff games for Linfield!
The 2004 UMHB team played #7 Trinity, #3 HSU, #5 W&J, and #1 MUC on the ROAD, and that was a tougher trip to the playoffs than Linfield plays this year at home!
November 14th, 2005 at 9:25 am
There we go again. It is all about “we got screwed in the past so it is ok to screw the top 5 teams this year. No! It wasn’t right in the past and it is still not right this year. Especially when Pat has pointed out that pairings could have been better and still met the “geography proximity,” in most cases. WW is about 45 minutes from the Illinois border. The point is, it could have been done better!
November 14th, 2005 at 10:07 am
Reply to Jmerch-The CCIW, the conference that North Central is a member of is a stronger conference than Wabash plays in. This is the reason Wabash is ranked below those teams.
November 14th, 2005 at 12:08 pm
The CCIW is definately a stronger conference than the conference Wabash is in.
Bracket 1 is one of the toughest I have ever seen. The Champ is going to be from Bracket 1. Bracket 4 is the weakest I have ever seen. Can’t the great teams be spread out? The Bracket 1 Championship game might as well be the Stagg Bowl.
November 14th, 2005 at 12:29 pm
Heads-up, we now have the official seedings:
http://www.d3football.com/playoffs/05/bracket.htm
November 14th, 2005 at 12:31 pm
They don’t even have to do the perfect world #32 vs #1. Keep the regions the way they are (it’s easier for fan travel, too), but they need to use their heads (yeah, right) and make adjustments when it is necessary. Regional border teams can be moved certain years with minimal effect on the budget. Put UWW in the North, dummies. Put the WIAC school(s) in the North every year the West is stacked. Or, put the SCIAC school in the South. On years the South is stacked, put one of the Texas schools in the West and/or one of the more eastern Southern schools in the East. Put a eastern Northern school in the East during years it makes sense. This is not rocket science.
And as far as the “you have to beat the best teams anyway so why not play them right away” line. Please. The odds are if you are playing a bunch of top caliber teams AND your opponent(s) you will face down the road are playing inferior competition, you are at a disadvantage. You are more likely to sustain injuries playing better teams, and let’s not forget you will have to open up your playbook much more just to survive these games, whereas other top ranked teams playing lesser talent can win without having to do so. This can play a factor when teams get to start viewing playoff game tapes later in the playoffs.
This year they couldn’t even get the semifinals right. Why isn’t the West playing the East? Jeesh.
November 14th, 2005 at 12:50 pm
I would love to hear how they figured the East was the second best bracket?
November 14th, 2005 at 12:55 pm
GMAFB. Three two-loss teams in the LEAST bracket and it’s supposedly #2.
Combined bracket records:
WEST 74-3
SOUTH 70-7
NORTH 69-11
LEAST 68-10
You know, I kid about “East coast bias” but things like this make it awfully hard.
November 14th, 2005 at 12:59 pm
Maybe the problem is the ‘regions’ themselves…. I’ve long complained that the ’south’ region got changed forever when the ASC grew into it’s current proportions…. the south extends from PA to West TX… The west covers all of CA as far east as ’some’ of the WI schools, while others are in the North. Pat has mentioned that Lakeland and Whitewater are in different regions…. Maybe now with 32 teams they should consider trying to balance things out in 8 regions. Maybe the regions need to be dynamic and be ‘re-drawn’ after the top 32 teams are identified, and 1-32 has been established and strength of region/travel/???? could be factored in…
November 14th, 2005 at 1:03 pm
Don’t forget to check out Massey RAtings to find out about your team. It shows the WIAC and the CCIW as the two best conferences in the country.
http://masseyratings.com/
New data won’t be avail until tuesday ( I think).
GO AUGIE!
BraCKET 1 has the Stagg winner in it.
November 14th, 2005 at 1:08 pm
I assume it was done the same way it was always done — the brackets have always been seeded by the strength of their No. 1 team, which in this case is Delaware Valley.
November 14th, 2005 at 1:19 pm
SeanGOP,
Congrats on Augies big win Sat.
Palermo,
Agree, the CCIW is no joke. Expect both Augie and North Central to win some games. I llike Augies first round, but North Central’s potential second round better, assuming they can get past a tough first round matchup. Think Augie beats Lakeland rather handlily.
I’d love to see North Central and Augie go at it again if they can both get through to round 3.
November 14th, 2005 at 1:44 pm
horseface,
I’m not sure what you like so much about a potenial second round match-up with Wabash (at Crawfordsville). The only common opponent Wabash and North Central had this year was Wash. U (back to back weeks in September) and both teams had similar results. I’m guessing this bracket goes 1 vs. 2 in Crawfordsville on Dec. 3. The final result being a Wabash championship over Trinity on Dec. 17. (Of course I’m not biased in that prediction at all).
November 14th, 2005 at 1:51 pm
D3forme,
Thank you for addressing the theory of , “got to play the top teams, might as well do it early.” Very well said!!! I would only add to your great points that in some cases , one of the top teams loses their home field advantage as well. way to early Oxy must travel in the first round and #3 St. Johns must travel to WW if they both win out in the second round. You would hope that the championship is decided at the Stagg Bowl which is a neutral field, not in a Regional Championship where one team has home field advantage!
November 14th, 2005 at 3:02 pm
I’d prefer to play Wabash in Crawfordsvegas (Home to the world famous “Touch of A$$”), than Mount Union at their place. Both tough teams and tough places to play, but Mt. Union just doesn’t lose at home. Call it the lessor of two evils.
Not even sure why I’m talking about round two. North Central will have their hands full on Saturday.
Oh, and I wouldn’t bet the farm on those predictions.
November 14th, 2005 at 3:11 pm
These playoffs are far from a perfect science no doubt, but what about the NCAA is? The NCAA basketball tourny has its faults, and the BCS is a joke.
In IL our HS football playoffs are designed into regions the same way. After the first round, whether your the 1 or the 8 seed, you could play on the road. Whoever had less home games at that point gets to host. People, like me, have complained about this since it was put in place about 4 years ago, but in the end the cream always seems to rise to the top. Far from apples to apples but….
November 14th, 2005 at 4:12 pm
Even as a Wally, I must admit that the East and North are not the best bracket and the West is by far the best. My problem is the fact that East and North are the only brackets that look normal where 1 plays 8 and so on for the most part. Where the West has the #1 vs #3 in the bracket. I know polls and regional ranking are different but one vs three is nuts. I don’t care if its been done b4, it should not continue. We need to have the best teams playing the worst teams b/c allowing one team to play their starters for 40 minutes and the other for 60 or perhaps 70 minutes will take a toll. This is unfair and even though it will hurt my Little Giants, I think UWW should’ve been added to the North and given it a lot more clout. I really think the rankings need to be adjusted b/c I know Depauw is and probably UWW is closer to Wabash than Alleghany is and they are in our conference. I just wish the NCAA could get something right but I guess that would be asking far far too much.
November 14th, 2005 at 8:32 pm
Quote from horseface “but Mt. Union just doesn’t lose at home.”
Actually, 4 out of the last 5 losses for Mt. Union have been at home, and the 4th was in Salem at the Stagg Bowl.
2005 ONU 21 MUC 14 at MUC
2004 MHB 38 MUC 35 at MUC
2003 STJ 24 MUC 06 at Salem
1999 Rowan 24 MUC 17 at MUC
1995 WLAX 20 MUC 17 at MUC
The last time MUC lost on the road at a non-neutral site was 1994 at Albion. The final score was 34-33.
The last time MUC lost on the road (non-neutral site) was
November 14th, 2005 at 8:40 pm
Sorry for the duplication, trying to post while my 2 and 4 year olds were harrassing me.
November 14th, 2005 at 9:36 pm
I’ve got a 3 and almost 2 year old that won’t leave me alone when I’m on the computer. I understand bro.
Thanks for the info. Call it gut feeling then…..I feel better about Wabash than I do MUC in round two….shoot me. Perhaps I should have said “Mt Union just doesn’t lose…..period”. Their record over the past decade speaks for itself.
Before all you Wabash fans jump all over me, I know your squads legit, its just my opinion. I hope NCC gets the chance to play you. We’ve got our hands full with the team that gave MUC all it could handle, and beat ONU, the team that beat MUC at their place this year. I’m getting way ahead of myself here.
November 15th, 2005 at 4:41 am
Maybe alot of people will have their eyes opened when they see Monmouth play on Saturday against St. John’s.
November 15th, 2005 at 7:07 am
As kid pointed out, if this were D1-A, if you’re anybody but Linfield or UW-Whitewater, you’d have NO chance of winning the title.
November 15th, 2005 at 7:47 am
reply to Palermo & SeanGOP - my point exactly….the CCIW is stronger than the conference Wabash plays in. It also appears Mt Union is in a better conference and/or is a stronger team. I was asking why Mt Union, North Central & Augustana are lower seeds than Wabash.
November 15th, 2005 at 9:01 am
10-0
November 15th, 2005 at 9:26 am
reply to jmerch-It most likely had to do with them being undefeated when it came down to seeding process. CCIW goes 2-0 in the first round. Place your bets in Vegas!
November 15th, 2005 at 10:06 am
jmerch,
I’ve given up trying to figure this stuff out. It appears the undefeateds get seated first, then the 9-1’s, 8-2’s etc. I belive strength of schedule, conference (massey rank) and the like come into play when the records are tied. I’m sure its more complicated than this, but this is basically it …..I believe.
November 15th, 2005 at 10:32 am
Regardless of your allegiances, here is looking forward to the first week of football PLAYOFFS. At least all of this will get decided on the field.
November 15th, 2005 at 10:44 am
Horseface - it’s all in the FAQ. The NCAA uses their own QOW factor, the regional rankings, etc. They don’t use any outside polls or ratings.
November 15th, 2005 at 10:46 am
Check out the Massey ratings for schedule strength, team rank and conference rank. And yes the CCIW and WIAC kill the rest. Eight of the top 20 teams in Massey are in the CCIW or WIAC. Why? Because they play good competition - not cupcakes like Wabash does.
http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cf&sub=III&mid=6
I still am p.o.’d at the first bracket. I don’t care how much it costs to send teams around. Don’t stack the top talent (most of the top) in one bracket!! I would kill to have my team in the 4th bracket. Talk about a weak bracket. That bracket is weaker than some conferences - seriously!!
UW Whitewater will win it all this year, and a CCIW team will beat Mount Union. Augustana had a guy with 3 interceptions against Wheaton! Good luck Mount Union against that. That Augie player somehow did not make “Team of the Week”. Oh well, the playoffs is what counts.
November 15th, 2005 at 11:00 am
SeanGOP,
Beware of the Muskies. Nah, just kidding. I think Augie wins this one, but it might be closer than you think. Lakeland gave Carthage all they could handle this year. Good luck.
I saw that Augie forced 6 Wheaton turnovers last weekend. Man, you guys just find ways to win week in and aweek out.
I’d love to see a North Central-Augie rematch in round 3, I’ll be rooting for Augie regardless if North Central’s outcome. Love to see the CCIW do well.
November 15th, 2005 at 11:02 am
Actually, Sean, the REAL Massey ratings (using SOS and MOV) are in the far right column (before the conference name). Only Augie (4) and North Central (7) are in the top 20 in that listing.
He puts the one ranking first because that’s the BCS ranking system, which cannot put MOV in its factor.
i wouldn’t give short shrift to Wabash, they’re 15th in that ranking. Believe me, Capital or North Central will be in for a battle.
November 15th, 2005 at 11:42 am
You have to respect any team that goes undefeated. It takes a lot of skill, a little luck, and tremendous focus. Nobody will give Wabash short shrift.
However, you have to wonder how battle ready that Wabash will be. How many really tough games did Wabash play? The 3rd - 5th teams in their conference have Massey ratings of 107, 123, 128. Have they been tested or are they just well rested?
Meanwhile, there were 6 teams in the CCIW that you had to be ready to play. Some of the final scores were not indicative of how close some of the games were. North Central pulled out some games late, as did Augustana. The bottom team in the CCIW had a Massey rating of 109. Are NCC and Augie battle tested or perhaps mentally and physically tired? Consider too that the 2004 CCIW playoff teams, and preseason choices to return, are done for the season.
We’ll see Saturday. The NCC and Capital game could be a five hour game, so mental toughness will be a factor.
November 15th, 2005 at 12:07 pm
MWFB,
Good post. That’s what I’ve been trying to say, you just said it much more eloquently.
November 15th, 2005 at 12:16 pm
You guy’s keep talking about the Massy rating, who’s #2….and what conference is #3. Not trying to take anything away from Whitewater, in fact would rather SJU had to travel to Linfield than to Whitewater although I can drive to Whitewater to see the game. All I’ve heard all year is Linfield, they blow everybody out because they don’t play anybody. What is their oppts. record, under .500 ? 27-49 and the rest of there conf. is 17-22. After SJU beats Monmouth and WW beats Central I will be in WW for the game on the 26th. I love how Locey tries to be so politically correct by saying the rest of the brackets are just as tough. HA! WW or SJU would LOVE to be in the East or North bracket. Just like the “Nature Boy” Ric Flair always said, “To be the best, you’ve got to beat the best” WHOOOO, so lets put the women and children to bed and go looking for F&*%ing dinner.
November 15th, 2005 at 12:18 pm
SmedIndy,
Thanks for filling me in regarding the Massey rankings. The CCIW still looks good.
Is it just me, or is Bracket 4 the weakest by a long, long, long way? I mean wow. Congrats to the teams that made it, but lets get real, they are lucky to be where they are. Undefeated teams should not be playing each other in the first round, just as the bottom feeders shouldn’t be playing each other in the first round.
JOHNS HOPKINS OR THIEL? I am having a tough time deciding between the two. Will JH defense hold Thiel? Both are in weak conferences and have weak schedule rakings.
CORTLAND ST. OR HOBART? Give me something people. These are two teams that would have 0% chance of winning in Bracket 1, but now can move on.
I will not like it when the season is over.
November 15th, 2005 at 12:56 pm
Sean - I do a power rating amalgamation using three power ratings, SOS and a factor of my own that I’m going to post in Top 25 and the playoff thread on Post Patterns. It’s just something fun but it does reveal something about the strength of each region.
November 15th, 2005 at 12:58 pm
Well, I’ll post it there when Post Patterns gets back on line.
Needless to say, the West is a beast, and you CCIW fans will be happy. And Ohio Northern, Hardin - Simmons, DePauw, and Cal Lutheran may be questioning Wilkes. Ah, well.
November 15th, 2005 at 4:49 pm
Reply to midwest fb-I hope the North Central game doesn’t last 5 hours because I will be there with my two young children!
November 15th, 2005 at 5:19 pm
I’ll be there too Palermo. NCC has already played 3 1/2 hour games this season (imagine how long the games would be with tv timeots). Capital is also a very good offensive team. There could be a lot of scoring, a lot of passing, and it could took a while to settle this one. Good thing the game starts at Noon …
November 15th, 2005 at 6:08 pm
mwfb & Palermo,
I will be there too. The weather forecast is calling for rain. Not good for NCC offense…even worse for my tailgating aspirations!
November 15th, 2005 at 8:05 pm
I hope SJU isn’t looking past Monmouth to Whitewater. Keep in mind that St. Norbert lost 27-20 in Collegeville (’01), and trailed 17-13 before the Johnnies ended the 2nd half with 21 unanswered in ‘03. The Scots are well rested after a week 11 bye, and Dante Daniels (851 yds, 12TD in 8 gms.) will be back in the backfield to compliment the nations top rated passer. The Johnnies are a better team, and their at home, and MC is the only unbeaten NOT RANKED, but don’t get cocky! I’d love to see the Scots prove a point this Saturday.
November 15th, 2005 at 8:11 pm
The Scots are without a doubt, undeniably, unquestionably, the best unranked 10 win team in the country (feel the sarcasm). Can I say that MC is the best team with the name SCOTS? Can I at least say they are the best D3 school in Warren County, IL? This is just disgusting!
November 15th, 2005 at 10:02 pm
The NOAA forecast for Naperville on Saturday is Sunny and 43. If it does rain, NCC has played in the rain the last two weeks. So, it should be a little familiar. Field turf is fine in the rain, the only problem is whether the ball stays dry. Capital averages 250 yds/game passing and 150 running. So, their offense will be hindered too if it rains. It’s not like playing Augie who would be happy with rain, since they love to run anyways. Rain wouldn’t necessarily favor either North Central or Capital.
November 15th, 2005 at 10:28 pm
Well I should certainly hope Ferrum isn’t looking past this weekends team. They will really need to get something going this weekend….I just hope it is more than the bus back to Franklin County.
Ferrum 24…Wesley 19
November 15th, 2005 at 10:57 pm
What would lead you to believe Ferrum would look past anyone? They got railed by a 6-4 team from an average-at-best conference. If they weren’t an automatic qualifier, a loss like that could’ve cost them a playoff spot all together. The only saving grace was their 42-37 win vs. Methodist.
“Ferrum 24…Wesley 19″
Wesley’s 42.4 ppg offense should have a field day against Ferrum. Wesley and Ferrum had two like opponents this year; Averett and Chowan. Ferrum went 2-0 with a combined 98-66 score, while Wesley outscored them 108-22! Not to mention Wesley has something Ferrum does not…a win versus a ranked team (beat Salisbury 63-19). The only thing these two have in common is that they both forgot to show up once this year (Wesley vs. Brockport and Ferrum vs. CNU). If anyone should be avoiding looking forward to the 2nd round it’s Wesley.
My prediction:
Wesley 41, Ferrum 21.
November 15th, 2005 at 11:36 pm
As someone said earlier, there will be TV timeouts. Unfortunately I must leave the friendly confines of Wabash and Holliet Stadium this saturday b4 the game to return home to for the holidays. Does anyone know the channel in which the games will be broadcast. I’d love to follow the little giants still. Any help would be appreciated. thx.
November 16th, 2005 at 7:25 am
blackhatson the hill - Being a Ferrum grad I hope you are right. My heart says you are but my head says you are not.
GoScotties - Not sure what you mean by Ferrum’s victory over Methodist being their saving grace except for the fact it got them in the playoffs. (Ok, guess that is saving grace enough) In my opinion Methodist is a slightly above average team that if you remove a couple of skill guys, they become very average. No dis intended to Methodist and it is perhaps unfair to judge a team on one ball game but an average Maryville (though probably better than their record) team whipped Methodist for over 3 and a half quarters. (winning 24 to 14 with less than 5 to go) Methodist wins 28 to 24 only because of those couple skill guys I mentioned. Ferrum beating Methodist by only 5 is a concern when you look at it through the goggles of the national stage. Of course all this score comparing can get you in BIG trouble but many of us tend to do it anyway. As someone mentioned earlier, the good news is this will all get decided on the field shortly.
GO PANTHERS!!!
GO EAGLES!!! (I’m an H-SC fan but hey, lets keep it in the family, right?!)
November 16th, 2005 at 9:41 am
SeanGOP,
In response to you:
“Is it just me, or is Bracket 4 the weakest by a long, long, long way? I mean wow. Congrats to the teams that made it, but lets get real, they are lucky to be where they are. ”
Interesting thought, but I disagree. I’d point out that Bracket 4 only has 1-two loss team, whereas Bracket 2 & 3 have multiple 2-3 loss teams. I hope you’re not just going by a flawed Massey Ratings system for your analysis.
“Undefeated teams should not be playing each other in the first round, just as the bottom feeders shouldn’t be playing each other in the first round. JOHNS HOPKINS OR THIEL? Both are in weak conferences and have weak schedule rakings.”
Interesting again that you would say undefeated shouldn’t play in the first round, and then you imply that Undefeated Thiel is a bottom-feeder.
Also, Thiel has a Top 10 QOWI, which, unlike Massey, is a tool the NCAA uses to evaluate teams.
November 16th, 2005 at 10:44 am
Mizzou -
But that doesn’t mean the QOW index isn’t flawed. It is…
November 16th, 2005 at 11:17 am
Mizzou Mofia,
I meant the weakest bracket ever was Bracket 2 at the bottom of the page (I made a mistake - bottom of page, must be 4 - oops). So your pointing out the stats were right on about Bracket 4.
What I should have said was the East Bracket is the weakest bracket of them all by a long, long, long, long way. There is Delaware Valley and Union for the good, and all the rest are crap (not so much Rowan). They play weak schedules and come from weak conferences. They all lucked out by making that bracket - BIG TIME. And Delaware Valley is not that great - I think Monmouth could whip them.
The Champ will come from the West, and the West Championship game should be the Stagg Bowl.
Also dude, there is no way that Thiel can be compared to UW Whitewater, Linfield, St. Johns or Occidental. The only way Thiel could even be in the same sentence is to mention how badly those 4 teams kicked their butt - if they even made it that far (which they won’t), or even played someone of that caliber.
If Thiel played in the CCIW or the WIAC we wouldn’t be having this discussion, because they would be lucky, very lucky to be a .500 team.
Thiel, as you may be aware, has a strength of schedule ranking a whopping 143rd toughest in the country. Not exactly intimidating. The Presidents conference ranks a lowly 18th in the country. The other “power” team in the same conference, Washington and Jefferson, has a strength of schedule which ranks in at the 181 toughest in the country. Wow, I wish Augustana could play them (my powerful team from a powerful conference, you know, a conference with real competition. 4 different ranked teams this year, and 6 teams which got votes in the d3football.com poll)
Thiel should be thankful that they get to play someone with just as weak a schedule as themselves.
So people, THIEL OR JOHNS HOPKINS? Give me a reason I should pick one over the other.
November 16th, 2005 at 11:56 am
Again with the Massey ratings? Please. You show me the Massey ratings that say how good the WIAC is, and I’ll show you 3-7 in the postseason. Top to bottom, yes, a strong conference. Not a lot of ‘free wins’ in the conference. But it’s been awhile since the WIAC’s best team has made some noise in the postseason.
“The Champ will come from the West, and the West Championship game should be the Stagg Bowl.”
I think I could half-agree with you. Linfield has to be the favorite to win it all again. But the West Championship game “the Stagg Bowl”…come on.
Last year Linfield pasted the WIAC champ by 38 points, then destroyed Occidental by 29. The closest game Linfield had all season was IN the Stagg Bowl, a closely fought 28-21 win over UMHB.
I don’t think Thiel will make it far enough to ‘test the west’, but I also think the West’s unbeaten 5 aren’t so much better than Thiel that you can write off Thiel, but not write off some of them. I could see 3, if not 4 of the West’s Unbeatens going home curtesy of a Monkey Stomp.
BTW, Pick Thiel because Hopkins can’t score.
November 16th, 2005 at 1:02 pm
Massey has nothing to do with the past - it’s all in the here and now and how teams are doing in the here and now.
November 16th, 2005 at 1:40 pm
SmedIndy,
Alright
Let’s just take a look at how good (or bad) of a system Massey is at the Division III level.
Here’s the final Numbers from last season in Massey. Linfield Number 1. Ok..good. UMHB Number 2. Congrats, they put the two teams in the finals at the top. I wonder what formula they used to figure that out…
Let’s see how Massey does after that…
7-4 UW-Lax was Number 4 and rated higher than Mount Union, even after getting blown out by Linfield. Number 6: UW-Whitewater (7-3), Number 7: UW-Eau Claire (7-3), Number 8: UW-Stevens Point (6-4), Number 11: UW Platteville (6-4). 5-4 UW-Stout was Number 13. UW-Oshkosh was 5-5 and Number 15.
And maybe the kicker, UW-Riverfalls was 3-7 and in the Top 20 out of 212 schools. Poor east coast semifinalist Rowan and 12-1 W&J didn’t even get ranked that high.
So after looking at that, please excuse me from believing Massey is a good ranking system at the Division III level.
November 16th, 2005 at 3:23 pm
Just wanted to address this “knock ” on the WIAC teams play-off records of the past. Not really familiar with any teams before 2003 so have a limited knowledge of the details of those records. I recognize that the numbers are not great. But if this years bracketing is any indication of the road to the Stagg Bowl of WIAC teams in the past, I understand how an early exit is very possible. The 2005 WW Warhawks is one of the most accomplished teams in regards to record, rankings, not to mention the school and WIAC records they have been breaking throughout the season, to come out of the WIAC in 5 years. (The last time a WIAC team ran the table.) Yet by the end of the 3rd round they will have had to beat the #1 and #3 team in the nation just to get out of their region and that is after they have had to beat #18. The West bracket has guaranteed that only 1 of the top 3 teams can make it into the final four!! So, if WW is unable to win out and loses as early as the 2nd round to one of the top teams in the nation, will it be said that this WIAC team is weak and couldn’t make it past the second round? Because without examining the circumstances of the loss, that would be an unfair assessment of the team and conference. But, somehow, I suspect that is exactly what will be said in the years to come when play-off comparisons are made. The PR is much better if one loses in the Semi -Final or Final round!! The “Yellow Brick Road,” to the Stagg Bowl has become a mine field for the top 3 teams on the nation as well as #6. The NCAA should be embarassed!
November 16th, 2005 at 3:38 pm
Mizzou - the whole POINT of the Massey ratings (and the other ratings systems) is to compare schools - where records DON’T matter. Who knows, based on the criteria, River Falls MAY HAVE BEEN BETTER than Rowan.
You must acknowledge that the WIACs records are such because they beat each other up in the conference season. They get such high ratings because they mop up the floor with some pretty good teams in the pre-conference season.
it’s a way to OBJECTIVELY compare schools, which is hard for some people to grasp. I think the Massey ratings, Sagarin ratings, et. al. are great tools in looking at disparate teams.
November 16th, 2005 at 3:54 pm
Wiac watcher,
I don’t mean any disrespect to the WIAC as a conference. My point in typing above was more to knock the Massey ratings for D3 than the WIAC. As the WIAC is Massey’s D3 baby, I threw out some results that, on paper, don’t look great for the WIAC. Those that have followed D3 football know that most of those playoff loses were to top tier teams in close games.
As Ralph Turner pointed out earlier on this blog, the 2004 UMHB team played #7 Trinity, #3 HSU, #5 W&J, and #1 MUC on the ROAD, but made it through that mine field to the Stagg Bowl. With at least 2 home games, the Warhawks will have an even better chance to make some noise.
That said, they better come prepared, especially in that bracket. There are no free passes. The last WIAC team to run the table in the regular season can attest to that.
November 16th, 2005 at 4:03 pm
To back up SmedIndy, I will repeat myself. The WIAC teams this year played 22 preseason games against teams in over 9 different conferences. They won 14 and lost 8. The 8 losses were to the defending national champs (Linfield,) a D-1A team, Drake, 2 D-2 schools, (SDSU and Bemidje State), #3 St. Johns, #22 Hardin Simmon and #10 Augustana to name a few. The WIAC teams have earned respect in the polls and rankings because of years of successful competition against some of the best teams and conferences in the country.
November 16th, 2005 at 4:23 pm
Drake is not only not Division I-A, it’s not even really I-AA. It’s I-AA nonscholarship, which means it awards the same number of football scholarships as WIAC schools do: zero.
I believe we can officially consider South Dakota State a I-AA school, however.
November 16th, 2005 at 4:25 pm
And yet they always have SOME excuse for not getting to the Stagg Bowl. If the conference is head-and-shoulders above all the rest (as Massey implies) then there should be a WIAC rep in the Stagg at some point.
November 16th, 2005 at 4:39 pm
Smed,
In 2004, based on the criteria, the LAST PLACE TEAM in the WIAC WAS better than Rowan, W&J, St. Johns, Wheaton, Trinity, Augustana, Pac Lutheran, Delaware Valley, Wooster, Bridgewater, and every team in the OAC except MUC.
I’m aware of the WIAC’s out of conference success. But these schools I listed all had out of conference success too. Some even won playoff games, and one even *GASP* beat a WIAC team. BUT, based on Massey’s criteria, because these schools aren’t in the WIAC, they can’t get the ‘bonus points’ associated with being in the WIAC.
This is a flaw in Massey’s criteria. It regionalizes talent to the extreme, and at the D3 level, it comes up with flawed results. This isn’t a problem at the D1 level because money for cross-country games isn’t a problem.
November 16th, 2005 at 5:13 pm
Ron - This may be the year.
November 16th, 2005 at 5:16 pm
Mizzou -
Massey isn’t the only power rating that rates all of the WIAC (along with the MIAC, the CCIW and the IIAC) - so does Born and La-Z.
And how do you get “bonus” points? You play the teams on the schedule and it measures how well you do against them, that’s all. If all of a sudden Curry and the rest of the NEFC starting rolling over everyone non-conference by wide margins, then they’d get the bump.
One thing I did notice was that some conferences took a plummet over the last three weeks of the season - especially the aforemented NEFC and that motley UMAC collection of schools.
November 16th, 2005 at 6:37 pm
I stand corrected on that point, Pat. I knew that Drake was a nonscholorship school in football as is their entire conference, I believe.
November 16th, 2005 at 6:46 pm
Looked all that up several weeks ago and was going by memory today. Obviously, it is not so good these days, lol!!
November 16th, 2005 at 6:57 pm
Oh, and I don’t think I had it exactly right then either! Will do better with the homework in the future!
November 16th, 2005 at 7:15 pm
The correction doesn’t really detract too much from my point, however. Instead of one D-1A and two D-2 schools, the corrected account is one D-1AA nonscholarship school and one D-1AA school and one D-2 school. Still all pretty good competition for D-3 teams.
November 16th, 2005 at 7:33 pm
And Ron,
Can’t argue with your point. There should be a WIAC team in the Stagg Bowl at some point if the conference is so much better! Can’t really explain why their play-off history isn’t better than it is. Maybe this year! Go Hawks!
November 16th, 2005 at 7:46 pm
Smed,
I’ve read a lot about what other people have said about Massey, but didn’t read any of the official methodology until today when I started reading it off the Massey site. The way I understand it, there is a slight carryover from records from the previous year, which is supposed to be mostly washed out by the end of the year. Key late season victories count more (which is how the 2 finalists usually get 1-2).
As far as the ‘bonus points.’ Here’s my basic take on that. A WIAC team (take River-Falls last season) could lose all of its non-conference games and still get ranked in the Top 20 by Massey (as did River Falls). That’s a credit to the other league members winning so many non-conference games. Massey includes the who-beat who-beat who-beat who (etc) principles into its ratings. So really, I think you’re right in saying that if another conference started consistently winning a large portion of its non-conference games, they could get a good spike.
A problem then arises for ranking good teams in medium-to-weak conferences in Division III, where you don’t have a lot of travel outside of driving distance in the regular season. They don’t get the benefit of the who-beat-who circle until playoff time, and the playoff’s often don’t provide enough games for every good team to move up to where they should be. Even when Trinity beat the West Region Champs in 02 to make the Stagg, a West region team finished ranked higher.
I haven’t read the Born or Laz methodology recently, so I can’t comment on them. It’s my hunch though that many of these power indexes (including Massey) were built for Division I sports, where there are considerably less teams, and more overlap in games between regions. If you look at the final Massey ratings in 2004 Division I football, it’s not a far stretch from the final AP poll. If you look at the final Division III ratings, it looks nothing close to the D3football.com Top 25. The method serves a purpose, but serves it much more accurately outside of Division III.
November 16th, 2005 at 8:00 pm
That’s why I have my own methodology, and have posted a mix of the power ratings with my own factors.
November 17th, 2005 at 10:22 am
OK OK,
The past of the WIAC is the past. I’m looking at this year, and this year they are the best conference in the nation. The CCIW is a close second (21-3 best in the nationnon-conference record, two of the losses by one team). How do you think a Thiel or a Delaware Valley would do in the WIAC or CCIW? Answer - not good. There are only a handfull of teams in the playoffs that would have made it had they had to play a CCIW or WIAC schedule.
This year UW Whitewater is my pick in the pool to win it all. I having them beating Augustana in the final. My other final 4 picks are Mary Hardin-Baylor and Rowan.
And for Mizzou Mofia, I picked Thiel over Johns Hopkins. Johns Hopkins may have good defense, but they only have good defense against weak opponents.
And for those who don’t like the Massey ratings, your team must not be ranked too high. Massey does not use win / loss record as the only criteria. Only a fool would use win / loss criteria exclusively to make picks for the playoff pool or for rankings.
GO AUGIE!! I would love for Augie to win the whole thing, believe me, but I have to use my brain when making picks. That way, I have a better chance at winning the pool. I like my chances
November 29th, 2005 at 5:10 pm
Larry Kehres was offered the Head Job at Kent State a few years back. But many wouldn’t call that a major college football program.