D3football Daily Dose

Two weeks ago I thought projecting the playoffs would be relatively easy this year.

We had about as many one-loss teams as there were Pool C bids. Simple enough – just plug and chug, maybe with one slot for a fifth Pool B or two-loss team.

Then St. John Fisher lost to Alfred. Wabash finished up the Monon Bell victory. Sean Salinas returned to upset Hardin Simmons. Now it’s not so simple.

Is Alfred the next best bet with one-regional loss and another against Washington & Lee? Will the SCIAC really get two bids? Does the Committee look more favorably on two-loss ONU who beat Mount Union or two-loss Capital who beat ONU?

The answers are seldom easy and the numbers will often surprise you. For example, we’ve crunched preliminary numbers on the Quality of Win Index and regional records for teams on the threshold. And the one who does best in those categories?

Wilkes. Then Cortland. Then Hampden-Sydney.

That doesn’t mean any of those teams get in, but it’s better news for three teams who seemed like real long shots before today’s games kicked off.

Feel free to post your thoughts below and on the message boards. We’ll be up late and then post our final projection ahead of Pat’s big appearance on ESPN News tomorrow around 1 PM.

Some other points to ponder…

Backing in: Ithaca and Ferrum may have lost a home game or two with their defeats against Cortland and CNU respectively. But will that carry over to the first round of the playoffs? Not necessarily.

Last season two teams lost their regular season finale and neither won their first round game. Willamette lost to eventual-champ Linfield and then Occidental in the first round. Aurora fell to non-D3 Valparaiso and came up short against Wooster.

But in 2003 those who lost their last regular season game went 6-6 in the playoffs. Bethel, Hope and Redlands dropped their first round contests but CNU got through by beating Muhlenberg. Ithaca made it to the regional final where they fell to RPI. The Red Hawks got thumped by Hobart 43-25 to end the regular season, but rebounded to win the East region.

Wish you were here: With apologies to Pink Floyd, I have a message to the undefeated (again) Trinity Bantams who will sit out the playoffs:

How I wish, how I wish you were here. You’re just one game short of a playoff sport, year after year. Running over the same old ground, what have you found? Time to turn in your gear. Wish you were here.

Then again, maybe I should’ve gone with “We don’t need no education.”

Don’t Stop Believin’: Keeping the classic rock theme, let’s tip our cap to a couple teams who ended 2005 on a good note despite some struggles along the way.

Allegheny may be, as one friend said, “the best 3-7 team in the country.” Five of the Ls are by 7 or less with another in OT. But they finish strong with wins against Earlham and Wittenberg.

Kenyon wrapped up its first winning season since the other George Bush was president (1990) thanks to a 39-yard Chad Rothschild field goal with four seconds left to beat Denison.

And Colorado College and Menlo put on a grande finale of their own in the Tigers’ 58-52 3OT win. Along with 1,325 yards of total offense combined, check out these QB stats:

CC Chris Neal 24-38, 403 yards, 3 TD passing 30-181, 2 TD rushing
Menlo Adam Hazel 25-41, 400 yards, 4 TD passing

OK,
Pat and I will check in from our respective rivalry games, and through comments, you can do the same.

It’s a beautiful day here in Greencastle, about 60 degrees and bright, with a wind blowing end zone to end zone that might affect the game.

I won’t ramble too much now, but it gets no bigger than this. Rivalry game with a 9-0 vs. a 7-1, playoff implications for both sides.

We’re about 6 minutes to kickoff. Let’s get it on!

Yes, definitely looking ahead to Saturday. In fact, I’ve been looking forward to this weekend for a little over a month, since I decided I was going to spend Week 11 at the Union/RPI game. I have to be in the northeast on Sunday to do the selection show on ESPNews and felt this was easily the best use of my time on Saturday. Expect a photo gallery Sunday at some point from the game.

Top 25 team most likely to get upset: It’s not fair to pick Union — even though Union is in the Top 25 and RPI is not, I think they’re pretty evenly matched, plus it’s a rivalry game, which makes it unfair to pick. Thiel is a consideration, so is Rowan and Delaware Valley. Augustana is possible. So is either IIAC team. Going with Coe, I guess.

Top 25 team most likely to have the game in hand by 10:00 of the first quarter: Linfield. Next question.

Tiebreaker most likely to need a slide rule: Keep an eye on that MIAA. If Albion doesn’t beat Olivet and the right other things happen, it could get kind of messy.

Rivalry foreclosed: This weekend will be the last great Secretaries’ Cup game, between Kings Point and Coast Guard. The “Little Army/Navy Game” will move to September next year because Coast Guard is bailing out of the Liberty League. Talk about taking the life out of a rivalry game. Imagine Michigan and Ohio State playing in Week 2?

Why do they have their number? Frostburg State has dealt Salisbury some puzzling losses in recent years, in Regents’ Cup play. (The two Division III state schools in Maryland have a trophy game.) In 2002 and 2003, Frostburg (6-5, 4-5) stuck a fork in some pretty good Salisbury teams (9-2, 7-2). It can happen again. Would like to see if Salisbury’s Dustin Johnson can get a medical redshirt year, though. Once upon a time you could get a medical redshirt if playing four games of a 10-game football season. Otherwise, his college career is done.

Don’t go away mad, just … Anyone notice the midseason cancellation of the Lawrence/Macalester game? Lawrence needed the date to make up its conference game against Illinois College, which was postponed after an IC soccer student-athlete drowned on campus. Ignominious end to Dennis Czech’s coaching career.

Worst predictions ever: Hmm, so someone predicted F&M would go 10-0. (Yeah, someone who writes for this site.) The Diplomats need a win Saturday against Gettysburg to finish 5-5. The quarterback whom we were told “dominated” the Centennial last year has completed just 42% of his passes and thrown four TDs compared to 11 interceptions. Yay, hyperbole. Guess dominated is a relative term — he completed 48% of his passes last year. Must be something in the water — the local paper apparently wrote a story today under the headline “Diplomats on Brink of Dream Season.” Guess “nightmare” was too big to fit in the space. No seriously, here’s the story. If I were editing that story, I’d have said something like “Diplomats Hope to Salvage Season.”

That’s all I got. Now over to Gordon.

Today is Friday November 11, 2005 and there are only two teams in the New England Football Conference that are preparing to play tomorrow, Fitchburg and Curry College. Tomorrow is the conference championship game for the NEFC and potentially the last game that the seniors on the field tomorrow will have a chance to play.

Today is also potentially the last practice for a group of seniors that I have had the privilege to play with for Four years. Us seniors that were honored this past Saturday have compiled the best record in school history with a record of 26-13.

After practice today the team will get together at a certain location at Elliot field to go through what we call “The Burning of the Shoe” which is when coach puts a cleat into a whole and sets it on fire while the team stands around the flames and the seniors get to tell their stories to the younger guys and thank everyone that has been involved in the program. The “Burning of the Shoe” usually is an emotional time for everyone as it could be the last time that that group will ever be together.

Saturday will be a special day for us Falcons as we have been waiting for this day for an entire year. Last year in the championship game we were beat by Curry College in a very tough, hard played football game. Well this year we get the chance to avenge that loss as both teams have taken care of their side of the division and will meet for the right to represent the conference in the NCAA playoffs.

Earlier this year we opened our season with a 28-13 win against Curry, however I expect that both teams will come into the game tomorrow very well prepared and that the game could come down to who has the ball last. Although I have had a tough season I am looking forward to the opportunity to redeem myself tomorrow either by punting well and putting our defense in good field position, or with a big kick that will help the offense.

In all of my years of playing organized football I have won a couple of championships on the Pop- Warner level, but nothing ever as big as the game that will be played tomorrow. Out of all of the DIII football teams in the country only 32 teams are going to play for a national championship, and with a win tomorrow we will get that opportunity

To all the seniors playing their final game tomorrow congratulations on playing four years of college football. Everyone else playing tomorrow enjoy every opportunity because it is going to go fast.

Alright, let’s try something different. Take the 32 teams selected using the NCAA’s criteria, but seed them nationally. What would we get?

This is a seeding of the 32 teams using the NCAA’s seeding criteria. It’s a little rough, obviously, because there are some seeming inconsistencies in the NCAA’s regional rankings, ones which we’ve had to take into account here since they would use the same criteria.

1 Linfield
2 UW-Whitewater
3 St. John’s
4 Wabash
5 Delaware Valley
6 Trinity (Texas)
7 Occidental
8 Union
9 Mount Union
10 Ithaca
11 Thiel
12 Ferrum
13 Mary Hardin-Baylor
14 Rowan
15 Augustana
16 Wesley
17 North Central
18 Concordia-Moorhead
19 Coe
20 Bridgewater (Va.)
21 Monmouth
22 Hardin-Simmons
23 Hobart
24 RPI
25 St. John Fisher
26 Mt. St. Joseph
27 Central
28 Willamette
29 Adrian/Albion
30 Johns Hopkins
31 Curry/Fitchburg State
32 Lakeland

So that leaves this for brackets:

Linfield Bracket
No. 32 Lakeland at No. 1 Linfield
No. 17 North Central at No. 16 Wesley

No. 24 RPI at No. 9 Mount Union
No. 25 St. John Fisher at No. 8 Union

Wabash Bracket
No. 28 Willamette at No. 5 Delaware Valley
No. 21 Monmouth at No. 12 Ferrum

No. 20 Bridgewater (Va.) at No. 13 Mary Hardin-Baylor
No. 29 Adrian/Albion at No. 4 Wabash

St. John’s Bracket
No. 30 Johns Hopkins at No. 3 St. John’s
No. 19 Coe at No. 14 Rowan

No. 22 Hardin-Simmons at No. 11 Thiel
No. 27 Central at No. 6 Trinity (Texas)

UW-Whitewater Bracket
No. 26 Mt. St. Joseph at No. 7 Occidental
No. 23 Hobart at No. 10 Ithaca

No. 18 Concordia-Moorhead at No. 15 Augustana
No. 31 Curry/Fitchburg State at No. 2 UW-Whitewater

Now, believe it or not, this only requires 12 flights. Hobart and Ithaca is a drive, RPI and Mount Union is a drive (seriously, 496.6 miles), Adrian/Albion can drive to Wabash, St. John Fisher and Union can drive. So if someone can pick up the tab for the extra 10 flights, we can get this done. Who’s with me?

From week to week there are many factors that build up to every Saturday. The most essential component leading up to a game has to be preparation. A good week of practice is imperative to the success a team earns, and that goes for the whole team, not just the guys who step on the field on Saturdays.

The guys who give the first and second string teams a look everyday are often overlooked and taken for granted. The harder they work, the better they are making their teammates and team. It’s a hard role for many guys to accept considering many of them were the go-to-guys on their high school team.

Going into week ten and our conference championship game we knew we had to have a good hard week of practice as we faced North Central College. Led by the self- proclaimed “Hit Squad” (defensive scout team) and senior Bill Smigiel, our offense was provided with great looks all week which we greatly benefited from. The intensity and concentration of each practice was higher than usual as our setback last year in Naperville, IL was still instilled in our heads.

We had been waiting for November 5th for 364 days and the seniors had been waiting four years for a conference championship. It is always a thrill when two highly touted teams meet head-to-head because there is usually a lot on the line. Last Saturday was no exception. As time ran out Josh Patterson booted a 22 yard field goal giving us a 20-17 victory and conference championship.

It was a hard fought battle, filled with plenty of emotion and good football, the way a game should be played by two playoff caliber teams. No matter what outsiders may have seen during and after the game and what they had to say about it, the players on both sides of the ball played their hearts out for 60 minutes. Both teams came ready to play and went after it the entire game, garnering nothing but respect for the players on the field.

Coming off last weeks victory, we head into another battle that bears a great challenge steeped in tradition. This Saturday we head to Wheaton, Illinois to take on Wheaton College. This senior class has yet to walk away from this game with a ‘W’. This game has come down to the last minute with potential to win on the last play the past two years and we walked away empty handed both times. Anyone who follows CCIW football knows that this game breeds great football and this Augustana squad comes into this game recalling the anguish of too many recent setbacks to Wheaton.

Welcome back to the game we annually call our playoff projections. This is where we take the 21 automatic bids, most of which are not yet set, then figure out at-large bids, some of which will lose between now and Selection Sunday, then seed them and pair them up logically … or fiscally … or geographically … or randomly, depending on the bracket.

In doing this every year, we have to toe a fine line. We can call some conference races, leave some open, pretend we know what’s going to happen, or ignore what has yet to be played. This is an inexact science, but it’s an attempt to look at the entire field using the NCAA’s stated selection/seeding criteria. But you can’t simply try to project one bracket in isolation. How do you know if there are eight South teams getting into the field, and not seven or nine or 10?

First, the basics:

Thirty-two teams will form four eight-team brackets. And we know the champions of 21 conferences will get an automatic bid to the playoffs. Four bids (Pool B) are set aside for independents or members of non-automatic bid conferences. The remaining seven bids go to what’s called Pool C, which is everyone left over.

So how will the brackets be formed, who will play whom? That’s what we answer each week from here until Selection Sunday. For more info check out our Playoff FAQ.

Keep in mind, these are the NCAA’s criteria:
The following primary criteria (not in priority order) will be reviewed:
• Win-loss percentage against regional opponents
• Quality-of-wins index–only contests versus regional competition
• In-region head-to-head competition.
• In-region results vs. common regional opponents.
• In-region results vs. regionally ranked teams (ranked at the time of the ranking/selection process).
• Conference postseason contest(s) is included.

Here’s our best guess at the Field of 32, updated Nov. 9. This is just a projection as if the season had ended today. Teams in bold have clinched automatic bids.

Delaware Valley Bracket
1. Delaware Valley (A)
2. Union (C)
3. Ithaca (A)
4. Rowan (A)
5. Hobart (C)
6. RPI (C)
7. St. John Fisher (C)
8. Curry/Fitchburg State (A)
This setup works so that there are not any conference rematches in first-round games. … We still have three Liberty League teams in because they all have decent numbers, but I think if RPI wins Saturday’s game against Union then Hobart will drop out. If RPI loses then RPI will drop out. Why? RPI already has a better regional winning percentage and Quality of Wins index, but Hobart has the head-to-head win. A win against Union will give them the automatic bid and a guaranteed slot. Union would have the win against Hobart on its résumé. … This committee is apparently giving a lot of weight to one game: Hobart over RPI. The win against a regionally ranked opponent gives Hobart a better regional ranking than St. John Fisher, even though SJF has a better regional winning percentage and better QOW. … If Rowan loses to Montclair this week, Cortland gets the automatic bid and Rowan is out.

Wabash Bracket
1. Wabash (A)
2. UW-Whitewater (A)
3. Mount Union (A)
4. Augustana (A)
5. North Central (C)
6. Mt. St. Joseph (A)
7. Adrian/Albion (A)
8. Lakeland (A)
They will not rematch Augustana and North Central in the first round. Projected matchups: Lakeland at Wabash, MIAA winner at UW-Whitewater, North Central at Mount Union, Mt. St. Joseph at Augustana. … Stiff price for North Central lining up in the neutral zone on the blocked field goal at Augie. … UW-Whitewater was the No. 2 team in the West regional rankings. They wouldn’t be put up higher than No. 2 in the North.

Trinity (Texas) Bracket
1. Trinity (Texas) (A)
2. Thiel (B)
3. Ferrum (A)
4. Mary Hardin-Baylor (C)
5. Wesley (B)
6. Bridgewater (Va.) (A)
7. Hardin-Simmons (A)
8. Johns Hopkins (A)
Geography still dictates Hardin-Simmons at Trinity (Texas). That puts Johns Hopkins at Ferrum. … Thiel still leads Ferrum in QOW and has the win against a regionally ranked opponent. Why is Ferrum ahead of Thiel in the regional rankings? … This has Wesley headed for its second-ever NCAA playoff game, both in the state of Texas.

Linfield Bracket
1. Linfield (B)
2. St. John’s (A)
3. Occidental (A)
4. Concordia-Moorhead (C)
5. Coe (A)
6. Monmouth (A)
7. Central (C)
8. Willamette (B)
Alright, Willamette, you have this spot for now. At 4-0 in-region with an 11.000 QOW you are in the last Pool B slot. At 4-1 in-region next week with a projected 10.000 QOW you won’t be, so the playoffs start a week early for you. (And if Pacific Lutheran beats Whitworth, the QOW for Willamette will fall even further.) … First-round matchups: Willamette at Occidental, Central at Linfield (no mud anymore), Monmouth at St. John’s (455 miles on NCAA map), Coe at Concordia-Moorhead (490 miles on NCAA map).

Who’s left? Our next Pool B team (i.e., the one waiting for Willamette to lose) is Washington and Jefferson. They were considered in Pool C but had a lower QOW than anyone selected in Pool C, save Hobart, which had the win against the regionally ranked team. Huntingdon next, as its QOW dove from 9.400 to 8.600 this week. The Maryville game, even if a win, will drive it even further down.

I have another separate playoffs post coming later, possibly tomorrow. I like that idea better.

OK, so I’ve written in the past about my concerns about Rowan (Immediate thoughts on Week 7 and Week 9). Today my fears came true. Rowan couldn’t muster up enough offense (or, according to observers, much of a sense of urgency) in a 20-19 loss at William Paterson. When was the last time William Paterson was the lead story on D3football.com? Sept. 19, 2002, for a Mark Simon Feature on a pair of Pioneers who returned to football after returning from military service.

Funny, when I started to write that sentence, my assumption was “never” — but I checked it out.

Rowan needs to come out firing next week. They won’t get into the playoffs with two losses, not in their final two games. There might be a two-loss team that gets in the field somewhere, but not in this situation. Rowan wins and it’s in (beating both Cortland State and Montclair, the other two teams they’d be tied with). If Montclair wins, Cortland goes to the playoffs because Cortland beat Montclair.

Nice little 32-0 run, Whitewater. That was another one of the early scores that sent ripples through knowledgeable D-III fans.

Who’d have thought that we could have six potential playoff teams meeting at the Monon Bell, Cortaca Jug and Dutchman Shoes games next week? Cortaca won’t have any effect on whether either team makes the playoffs (Cortland’s at-large bid chances are a longshot at best, they wouldn’t even be the best two-loss team out there) but Ithaca is in and Cortland will be scoreboard-listening. RPI almost didn’t make it to this dance, however, needing a late TD to beat Rochester.

Capital had another great day on defense. In fact, if you throw out the Mount Union game, Capital has allowed just 7.6 points per game all season. Usually I’m not in favor of throwing out a game to make a point, but Capital has allowed just 11.4 points per contest even with that game, and shoot, for most of the past decade the Purple Raiders have been the Priceline of offense — you know, name your own score.

Only today did McDaniel refute my hypothesis that their 4-1 season could very well turn into 4-6. The Green Terror had lost four in a row before beating Muhlenberg today 13-6.

Ferrum clinched its first playoff bid since 1990, UW-Whitewater its first since 1997, and Johns Hopkins its first ever. Welcome to the show. See you on ESPNews in a week.

If Crown plays Southwest Assemblies of God and nobody reports a score, does it count?

E-mail of the day:

Below is the result of your feedback form. It was submitted by
K (xxxxxx@comcast.net) on Saturday, November 05, 2005 at 09:55:34 AM
—————————————————————————
Subject: What About Rowan
Notes: I consistanly monitor your website and I think that it great, however you never write anything about Rowan football. Rowan has been at the top of Division III football for many years and you never give them any respect. I would like to see anything about Rowan football Thanks

I think the moral of the story is, don’t complain about lack of respect on Saturday morning. Save it for the blog. Ugh.

Alright, well, I’m stuck at home today. This site doesn’t cover the mortgage, so on days when I’m not at work my wife often has to work at her part-time job.

So far so good on the Trinity/Amherst game, looks like we did the right thing sending Keith McMillan up there. Sounds like a good game at this point, although Teamline keeps cutting out at inopportune times. As best as I can tell, Trinity scored a touchdown on a broken play/bad snap field goal. Amherst came back with a long TD pass, but the PAT was blocked and Trinity returned it for a defensive two-point conversion. Trinity (Conn.) 9, Amherst 6.

Have already heard good stuff from our folks in the field. Apparently there’s a scenario in which the LL comes down to a coin flip. Kings Point and Shenandoah could be candidates for the open MAC slots. Looks like the weather is holding up so far at Central/Wartburg. Rose-Hulman does live stats so we’ve added a link to the Rose-Hulman/DePauw game on the Scoreboard.

Will post more as I surf through games.

We media members like drama. Photo finishes. Log jams at the top of the standings. Season finales with conference titles on the line. These are a few of our favorite things.

For several Division III teams, this weekend is about avoiding drama. “Leave no doubt,” as the Linfield fans used to say.

This is your chance, Ithaca. Beat Alfred and you’re in.

Mount St. Joseph, you got a second chance after slipping against Hanover. Take care of Anderson and take your place in the postseason.

UW-Whitewater, being “wacky in the WIAC” is overrated. Stuff Stout and stay out of trouble.

Del Val and Occidental can avoid some Week 11 drama by winning their game, their conference and their AQ this Saturday. Hobart can relegate the Union-RPI “Dutch Shoes” rivalry to the Pool C closet with a win tomorrow. As we wait to see who punches their playoff ticket, here are my two-cents worth (plink, plink)…

Wish you were here: If I had my way, I’d be listening to Rock Lobster, eating rock candy and heading to Rock Island, Illinois where Augustana and North Central will meet for the CCIW title. It’s tough to beat No. 17 versus No. 11 with playoff implications. Though I will say, I’m intrigued by Monmouth-Knox. Any game that involves a trophy like this has to be fun.

Don’t sleep on this one: Teams like Washington & Jefferson and Salisbury have more than a passing interest in the battle between Willamette and Whitworth. The Bearcats and Pirates will fight for their playoff lives as the former still has to play Linfield and the later already lost to the defending champs.

Most Likely Top 25 Team to Lose: No. 22 Central who travels to defending IIAC champ and current contender Wartburg.

Super Ridiculous Pick of the Day: All good things come to an end. Amherst 20 Trinity (Conn.) 17. I’m picking against the Clamorin’ Clucks, my alma mater, here. Especially if that means they are less likely to send me pledge drive solicitations.

Saturday night’s alright: …For doing something else. The only night broadcast is Chapman against non-D3 San Diego (Go Toreros) on www.usdtoreros.com. And that’s only interesting if SD’s coach Jim Harbaugh decides to suit up.