Stagg Bowl XXXIII predictions

14
Dec
2005

We’ve predicted every Stagg Bowl since Stagg Bowl XXVII, and that year we were one of the few groups east of the Rockies to correctly predict Pacific Lutheran would beat Rowan.

We’re going to rest on those laurels … well, basically forever. We’ve been right every year except 2003, when St. John’s got it done against Mount Union against very long odds. Here’s what our assorted staff and contributors see happening Saturday in Stagg Bowl XXXIII:

Pat Coleman — D3football.com Publisher, Stagg Bowl Broadcaster
I have some trepidation picking against Mount Union, but I’m going to. There’s just too much diversity in the UW-Whitewater offense to expect Mount Union to be able to stop everyone, whether it’s Justin Beaver, whom everyone knows about, to Derek Stanley, who, while the fastest, might not even be the best wide receiver on his team. (That would be Jim Leszcynski, who started the season as the No. 1 receiver but has been caught by Stanley.) And don’t forget tight end Pete Schmitt, as well as the work of an offensive line led by Brady Ramseier and Max Sakellaris. I seem to remember last week saying this group would have its hands full against Wesley. While that didn’t happen, I mean it this time. Now, Mount Union is no pushover, to be sure, and the secondary of UW-Whitewater will be tested. The bend-but-don’t-break defense can’t even afford to bend. If they do, expect a steady dose of running back Nate Kmic, like last week, and see Mount Union try to shorten the game. But in the end, many Mount Union games end in laughers when the opponents get outcoached. The margin of coaching will not be as significant as in previous Stagg Bowls.
UW-Whitewater 35, Mount Union 34

Keith McMillan — Around the Nation Columnist, Stagg Bowl Broadcaster
I’m still not 100% sure how I feel about this game, but I do think we’re looking at two teams whose skill position players are lauded but have equally important interiors. The game might be decided by the UW-Whitewater offensive line against the Mount Union front six, and both have passed several tests during the season. I think we’ll see some scoring, but we can throw out the 40 points and 500 yards each offense averages. In the second half, the defensive cream will rise to the top, led by Mount linebacker Mike Gibbons. Although Whitewater appears to be an unstoppable train right now, the Purple Raiders are more well-rounded and better on defense, so I’ll take my swing.
Mount Union 24, UW-Whitewater 22

Pat Cummings — Mid-Atlantic Region Columnist, Stagg Bowl Broadcaster
I am one of the few that can say I have seen both teams play this season. That being said, I could regale you with statistics and facts and historical tidbits. But all I provide is simple conjecture. The high-powered Whitewater offense will get its points, but don’t let Mount’s low point total against a solid Rowan defense make you think the Purple Raiders are punchless against Whitewater. The Warhawks won’t score as much as you think as the Mount defense, paced by Mike Gibbons, pulls through when it counts most, providing the foundation for an eighth Stagg Bowl championship.
Mount Union 27, UW-Whitewater 21

Gordon Mann — Contributor, Stagg Bowl Broadcaster
2004 Stagg Bowl predictions champ

Before last year’s postseason I wrote this about the WIAC playoff reps: “I know it seems like you play Mount Union or St. John’s every year, but if you’re the best conference in the country at some point you’re going to have to beat these teams. The best team in the best conference has to be the best team in its playoff region occasionally, right?” Well, now the best team in the WIAC will be the best team in the country, though by a thin margin.
UW-Whitewater 28, Mount Union 24

Adam Johnson — West Region Columnist
The Warhawks of UW-Whitewater must feel like they’re at a McFadden and Whitehead concert singinging along to the hit “Ain’t no stopping us now.” The Warhawks have rolled over some of the most prolific programs in Division III history and their reward is the synonym for Division III excellence–Mount Union. This clash of purple pride will showcase a powerful Whitewater offense against a stingy Mount Union defense. With a deep threat in Derek Stanley, a smash mouth runner in Justin Beaver and a “Cool Hand Luke” quarterback in Justin Jacobs, the Warhawks will get their points. If their defense can put on a show like they did against St. John’s they complete their improbable run and hoist the coveted Walnut and Bronze.
UW-Whitewater 34, Mount Union 24

Tom Wilson — East Region Columnist
Three years from the Purple Raiders last championship in 2002. I think this is they year Mount Union wins their eighth title. I expect a great game.
Mount Union 24, UW-Whitewater 21

Ron Boerger — South Region Columnist
UW-W is on an incredible roll, but MUC has history and tradition on their side. UW-W is rolling offensively, MUC seems to have turned up the defensive effort late in the season. UW-W has great receivers and MUC has an emerging star in Kmic. Every time I’ve picked against Larry Kehres’ boys, I’ve ended up wrong. They’re 6-1 in the Stagg Bowl, but seem vulnerable this year. I think the Raiders will relish the underdog role they find themselves in. Stagg Bowl Most Outstanding Player Nate Kmic rushes for 150 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Mount Union 24, UW-Whitewater 21

133 Responses to “Stagg Bowl XXXIII predictions”

  1. mikeb525 Says:

    MUC 34
    WW 30

  2. dutchman89 Says:

    MUC 34
    WW 20

  3. Iknowitall Says:

    UWW 47 MUC 10

  4. d3fan Says:

    UWW 36 MUC 33
    An early congrats to the Warhawks for winning the Stagg Bowl!!

  5. WiWarhawk Says:

    First off…are there any tickets left? Ticketmaster said that there aren’t. HELP!!!!

    Being a UWW fan, I can easily see how MUC would have the upperhand in tradition and the whole “being there” aspect of the game. However…that tradition has to start somewhere, so who’s to say that it isn’t Whitewater’s turn to start that same tradition…or at least establish that mentality?!?

    But, let’s be realistic…it is Mount Union. I remember as an undergrad cheering on the Raiders to set the record for most consecutive wins. They are an amazing team with extreme power at their disposal.

    In the end, though…I am still going with my Warhawks. If the Lindfield game didn’t end the way it did, I would be a lot more indecisive. I sat at my computer listening to the Lindfield game over the web and was impressed with the last two minutes. It was at that point that I knew UWW had the resolve and the mettle to win it all. Coach Brez has done an amazing job with the kids this year, and like he has said “They aren’t cocky…their confident”. That’s the kind of confidence that beats Lindfield in their own house.

    So, d3football.com…with all due respect, your predictions mean nothing to me. You predicted Lindfield to go all the way, and UWW to bow out in the second round. You also predicted that the Wesley game wouldn’t be a blow out. So predict away and look at your skilled positions all you’d like…

    I’ll look at the heart of the UWW Warhawk football team.

    ~Ryan

  6. pcole Says:

    Ryan,

    We did not predict that Wesley would not be a blowout. Thanks for reading.

    “Even without an equipment miscalculation such as at Brockport State, Wesley could still get blown out, even if they hang onto the football.”

    I’ll look at the heart of our predictions.

  7. pcole Says:

    As for tickets, I’d be shocked if it were sold out. The one time it happened it was because one school was 90 minutes from Salem.

    Call 540-375-3004 to get the Salem Stadium ticket office.

  8. pcole Says:

    Sorry to monopolize the comments for the moment, but just checked with the Salem folks and there are plenty of seats available.

  9. lilpeds Says:

    This blog should be a treat.

    I say a tight game in the first half…14-14.

    Second half Whitewater grinds, forces a big turnover or two. Chaulk kicks the game winner with time expiring.

    31-28 Whitewater.

  10. kid Says:

    UW-Whitewater 38, Mount Union 24

  11. dlippiel Says:

    MUC 31- WCC 24 Good luck to all players! May the game be all about the players! Injury free and fun, lets go Raiders!

  12. WiWarhawk Says:

    Actually, I was referring to this article: http://www.d3football.com/atn.php where the prediction was UWW 31, Wesley 28. Since we like quotes, I’ll just state that in the article above, the author stated

    “That said, I’ve got a strong feeling — and remember, I’ve been high on UW-Whitewater for quite some time — that the Wolverines are going to have a chance to win in Saturday’s fourth quarter.”

    I can see why it’s easy to digress into smack talk on this forum. BUT…amen dlippeil..let’s have an injury free game! You cheer for the raiders and Let’s Go Hawks!!!

  13. WarhawkFan610 Says:

    I dont think Whitewater can be stopped. The have beat Linfield and St. Johns. I don’t think Mount Union can keep up with the Warhawks and their highpowered offense through the whole game. If they can beat the defending champs I think they can probably beat Mount Union. It will be close at the beginning and through most of the first half but I think Whitewater will pull away later in the game.

    38-17 Whitewater. let’s go Hawks

  14. kirasdad Says:

    Mount Union: 31
    UW-WW: 24

  15. bvboom Says:

    UWW 41 MUC 17

  16. Ric Says:

    Early in the week I thought it would probably be a one score game either way. I no longer think that will be the case. This game will not be as exciting as either team’s quarterfinal.

    Mount Union 37
    Whitewater 20

    Purple Raiders will “Leave No Doubt”

  17. Gordon Says:

    Wow. I’m not sure which shocks me more — the words “champ” next to my name or AJ quoting a Verizon commercial.

    - James Earl Jones (who also like Whitewater to win)

  18. Ric Says:

    BTW Ron, Mount Union is actually 7-1 in championship games.

  19. WarhawkFan610 Says:

    I’ll just remind all the Mount Union Pickers that Whitewater is 14-0 and Justin Beaver is going to set a record Saturday for most yards in a season in the Whitewater win.

  20. SmedIndy Says:

    WW 27 MUC 24

  21. wsufan Says:

    Whitewater 31
    Mount Union College 27

    Pete Schmitt scores the game winning touchdown.

  22. pcole Says:

    You’re just saying that because he’s on the cover. :)

  23. uwwhawk18 Says:

    Although MU has historically been a true powerhouse, I think they’ve met their match this year. I have played with some really good teams at Whitewater, but this team is really special. To top it off they proved themselves. They swept thru the toughest region by far. Not to say that Linfield wasn’t tought, but they saw what UWW brought to the table, an now it’s MU’s turn. GO HAWKS!!!

    UWW 38 MU 21

  24. wsufan Says:

    Well yeah, plus they were showing his TD catch against Wesley on TV-19 while talking about the game. It had to be a sign.

  25. rbrockwell Says:

    Mt. Union 21
    Whitewater 20 (missed PAT in double overtime)

    Hey why cant I hope for a long tough played out game?

  26. lg1970 Says:

    UW-W - 33
    MUC - 26

  27. pcole Says:

    Brockwell, I hope with all the talk about high-quality Division III football you thought you were seeing this year that you are coming out to see the Stagg Bowl in person.

  28. lilpeds Says:

    Out of the seven experts’ predictions, four go to Mount Union. Doesn’t look like MUC is that big of an underdog after all.

  29. OU#25 Says:

    Remember in any sport…great defenses beat great offenses….Saturday will not be the exception. Mount wins 34-24.

  30. wiac watcher Says:

    I was just about to make that point, lilpeds! But the Hawks seem to take one step forward and two steps back as far as the “respect factor,” goes this year. Keith, you have me completely confused. Didn’t you predict that UWW would win it all at the beginning of the post season and then back track picking Linfield to win, and now, Mt. Union. Since the Hawks have done nothing but march through the toughest region in the playoffs all the way to the Stagg Bowl, doesn’t make sense to me. Anyway, it will come down to the defenses, I believe, and much is being touted about MUC’s defense and UWW’s may be being overshadowed once again so I will just throw out this. “The Warhawks have an amazing 16 interceptions and has forced 20 turnoevers in its four playoff games.” The defense has also scored 4 touchdowns and a safety! So those numbers say to me that Mt. Union’s offense will not score more points than UWW’s . I predict a Warhawk victory by 2 TD’s. Notice, I took the cowards way out and didn’t deal in actual numbers, LOL! GO HAWKS GO AND BRING HOME THE WALNUT AND BRONZE!!!

  31. rigg0123 Says:

    wiac watcher-
    I agree Keith can be confusing. One of the “experts” will pick the right winner, and that’s all they need to claim how right they all are.

    MUC 24
    UWW 21

    Special teams will win this game!

  32. MUC78@PU Says:

    Over the years Mount Union has had its share of losses in the playoffs to eventual DIII national champions. For example, in 1985 & 1986 to Augustana, 1990 to Allegeny, 1992 & 1995 to U. of Wisconsin at Lacrosse and in 2003 to St. John’s. Likewise, in 1993, 1996, 1997, 1998, 2000, 2001 and 2002, Mount Union was able to earn the right to be called champions themselves. Mount Union players and fans have consistently acknowledged and respected the teams who have earned the DIII national title. If fact the hallmark of the Larry Kehres era a Mount Union has been to take one game at a time and respect every opponent whether they are 14-0 or 0-9. The highest respect is being given to this years University of Wisconsin - Whitewater team. The University of Wisconsin at Whitewater’s football team and fans have much to be proud of. Likewise, we Mount Union fans are proud of not only Mount Union’s history, but also Mount Union’s 2005 football team. I believe this years Stagg Bowl will be a battle between two excellent football teams with Mount Union coming out on top because, as in the past, on the day of the championship Mount Union will play the best 60 minutes of football.
    Congratulations to the University of Wisconsin Whitewater for an excellent season and good luck.
    GO RAIDERS, bring home number 8.

  33. allsky7 Says:

    “They” say that good defense beats good offense most of the time. With all due respect to the W-W D and the MUC O, this is kinda being billed as the W-W offense vs the MUC defense.
    Not this time! The MUC defense will not be able to stop the W-W offense enough times to win the game.

    W-W 27
    MUC 21

    BTW- I’ll be the 40 something, “bubba” looking guy who looks like he just came out of the mountains of Amherst County Virginia. :)

  34. pakownr97 Says:

    I agree with Ron Boerger’s comment about Mount Union relishing their new role as underdogs. To be in a Mount Union uniform and be an underdog has to be a motivating factor. But I think Pat Cummings was closer on the score.

    MUC 28
    UWW 21

  35. UWW-fan5 Says:

    UWW 38
    MUC 21

  36. tje Says:

    I am an alumnus of St. John’s University class of 1975. I’ve only been to two Stagg Bowls, one in 2000 and the other in 2003. Mount Union defeated St. John’s 10-7 in the 2000 game. St. John’s defeated Mount Union 24-6 in the 2003 game. I found the Mount Union players and coaching staff to be just as gracious in victory as in defeat. There were some nice interactions with fans also. There was some good hearted ribbing about how bad St. John’s was going to be defeated in 2000 which I didn’t hear repeated in 2003. The thing that struck me about both games, however, was how much difficulty Mount Union had scoring against the zone defense. Based on their record it seemed odd to me that they couldn’t put up any more than 16 points combined in the two games. I don’t know how much zone Whitewater plays but if I were the Whitewater coach I would certainly want to review the films of the two St. John’s - Mount Union Stagg Bowls for game planning.

  37. Pounds32 Says:

    First year coach Willy Will is the addition U-WW needed to boost them into the elite of D3 football. His expertise and insight into disecting film has clearly paid dividends as the season has progressed. I predict a future coach of the year on the staff of U-WW.

    UWW 35
    MUC 24

  38. SeanGOP Says:

    This is a no-brainer.

    UW Whitewater 35 (at least)
    Mt. Union 21 (at most)

    If you can beat St. Johns, Central, Linfield and Wesley (not to mention go undefeated in the WIAC), then Mt. Union will get beat too.

    And yes, I think Mt. Union is a great team (one of the all time greats in any division as far as legacy / domination), but they are going to get stomped this weekend by an amazing UW Whitewater team.

  39. SeanGOP Says:

    This is a no-brainer.

    UW Whitewater 35 (at least)
    Mt. Union 21 (at most)

    If you can beat St. Johns, Central, Linfield and Wesley (not to mention go undefeated in the WIAC), then Mt. Union will get beat too.

    And yes, I think Mt. Union is a great team (one of the all time greats in any division as far as legacy / domination), but they are going to get stomped this weekend by an amazing UW Whitewater team.

  40. SeanGOP Says:

    Sorry for the duplication - it was not intentional.

  41. 71Whitewater Says:

    Mt Union has a great tradition, but games aren’t because you’ve won before. They are won on the field and the Warhawks have the mojo.
    WW 27, MUC 17

    GO WARHAWKS,
    Steve

  42. 4theloveofthegame Says:

    Two outstanding teams!! I feel the difference will be coaching. Larry Kehres knows how to prepare his team for a national championship. He knows what his team will experience in Salem and has them ready. He’s a master at developing game plans and making mid-game adjustments. As long as Mount doesn’t lose the turnover battle, they’ll be returning to Alliance with another National Championship. Look for a low scoring first half as both teams feel each other out. Then look for Kehres’ adjustments in the second half to be the difference.

    Mount wins… 28-24

  43. LGFan Says:

    WW 45
    MUC 17

    Did you not see last week?
    WARHAWKS Always… you know!

  44. budcrew08 Says:

    I’ll pick UWW 28, Mt. Union 24. I’d like to see a different team win it this year. MU already owns 7 titles!

  45. fishingfool42 Says:

    The only thing that I know about Mount Union is that they have a very good team again this year and one that has a long history at the Stagg Bowl. Being a long time resident of Whitewater and having seen many Warkhawk teams, this one has something very special being put on the field every week.

    Hawks 34
    MU-23

  46. Ajwassup Says:

    Mount Union 27
    Whitewater 20

    GO RAIDERS!!!

  47. Iknowitall Says:

    What has Mount Union showed this year that really even gives them a chance against UWW. The line is UWW by 4 I saw online. I just dont see them keeping this game close. Tradition don’t mean anything here. This is UWW with Div 1 caliber athletes playing a solid team with Div 3 caliber athletes. When I am out there I think I might book a room for next year too. Cause they will be back here.

  48. PikeCat Says:

    UWW 27
    MUC 13

  49. iceman2541 Says:

    Mount Union has quite a few D1 caliber players, too, you know. This game will be a good one, regardless of who wins.

    MUC 27
    UWW 24
    in overtime

    Mount is far too good to be blown out and in saying so, I am taking nothing away from UW-W, who have likewise had a tremendous season!

    I agree with MUC78 100%. Very nicely stated.

  50. sitlux Says:

    UKNOWNOTHING - Where to start with what MT. has shown….#1 in Yds. Per Game (Vaunted WW Offense is almost 30 YPG behind) #2 in Total Defense (WW didn’t make the top 30 and gives up 104 more YPG) #18 Rushing Offense (WW is #24 with 15 fewer YPG) #10 Rushing Def. (WW #27 with 22 more YPG given up) #19 Passing Offense (WW #30 with 15 fewer YPG) #6 in Passing Effeciency (WW not in the top 30) #7 Scoring Offense (WW #4 with 0.3 more PPG) #2 in Scoring Def. (WW #19 giving up 6 more PPG) Turn over margin goes to WW +24 -v- +7 (great Stat for WW!)

    I’m not putting WW down put come on “What has MT. showed this year…” I think the numbers speak a lot better than you do.

  51. TLU98-00 Says:

    Tradition means nothing ? What has happened in the past doesn’t matter ?

    55 AND 54 consecutive game win streaks speak differently, as does the 7-1 title game record. Knowing how to win, adapt to the situation, and being in a proper mental state despite what’s happening all come into play in any game … let alone one of this magnitude. You don’t build what Mount Union has with those things being empty words and meaningless expressions. I wonder how many of the people making these comments have actually PLAYED the game on any level, let alone the collegiate level.

    Mount Union - 38
    Whitewater - 24

  52. jimjearsa Says:

    My prediction!

    One heck of a football game and a whole lot of respectful Mt. Union fans cheering their 2005 Team Football team on. Win or lose we will as always show respect for others. We have our share of bad apples just like all teams do. When you have the tailgating going on your bound to have one or two jerks causing a bad image for the good fans. Just like this website has just a few bad people making comments about these two Great Football Programs.

  53. MUC78@PU Says:

    Iknowitall:
    Statistics do not win football games, but after 14 games they can be pretty good predictors of future performance. I suggest you go back to the home page of D3football and use the NCAA Stats link to check out the 2005 stats. The NCAA ranks team performance in 12 categories. UW-W and/or Mount Union are nationally ranked (in the top 35) in 9 of those 12. This 2005 Mount Union team ranks ahead of UW-W in 8 out of the 9 categories. UW-W wins this stats comparison in turnover margin only. Your zeal for your team is commendable, but I believe both teams have a good “chance” in the Stagg Bowl.

  54. lilpeds Says:

    Exactly. Well put. Let’s just all get real - it’ll be a great game. I’m just curious after the final score, which people are going to be eating their own crow.

    I’ve said all along, close game, two great teams.

    and Jim, hopefully you find that the Whitewater fans respectful as well and not take some of these inane comments seriously. Because there are some of us out there.

  55. iceman2541 Says:

    Remember: More often than not, the team with the fewest turnovers wins the game. That is definitely not a stat to disregard in my humble opinion.

  56. firewater Says:

    this will not be a game. The Warhawks will scream loud and long. UW-W 52 MU 10

  57. MUCfan49 Says:

    I love how unrealistic these scores are coming from UW-W fans. Give a 2nd rated defense some credit no matter how good your offense is. I hope Mount beats UW-W at there own game and has an offensive explosion, unfortunatly I think it will be closer than that.

    Mount Union 35
    UW-W 28

    Pierre blows by the DB’s for 2 TD’s and Nate has 2 rushing TD’s.

    Go RAIDERS!

  58. D3Keith Says:

    All:
    I can be confusing for two reasons. One, I have no guts. I like everyone, and I don’t mean that I’m afraid of insulting someone by not picking them. I mean I like what I see when I see teams playing at this high a level. I see a lot of good in them and not many weaknesses. That makes either team hard to pick against, even though the nature of making picks means you must ruffle one side’s feathers by “slighting” or “overlooking” them. Predictions are something we’ve done this year more than ever, and it’s basically just to get the conversation started — something we can all agree the blog has been successful doing. No one can predict how everything will turn out, and if we could, there’d be no need to watch the games. Being wrong is usually more fun than being right.

    Honestly, having seen Whitewater and Wesley with my own two eyes, I thought that could be a matchup for the ages, especially Whitewater’s O-line and Wesley’s D-line. As we all know, it wasn’t.

    Maybe I’m guilty of getting a good feeling about teams I’ve recently seen or talked to. But I’d still rather get opinions from someone who has seen several teams and has something to compare it to than a big ‘ol homer who always thinks his team is going to win. Even when that is the case, it’s not like it takes thoughtful consideration to tell us how awesome your favorite team is. Everyone (except Philly fans) thinks their favorite team is ultra-cool, and in the end, most of us are wrong.

    So it’s not a big deal if our picks mean nothing to you; they don’t mean all that much to us either. It’s just conjecture/gut feeling/analysis … to get the conversation started. Some people put more time into them than others, but in all cases, you should just take them for what they’re worth. “Expert” doesn’t mean “Way smarter than you,” it means “spends time watching/comparing/caring about more than one team, therefore I should be able to offer some perspective that you don’t already have.”

    Even when winging it, I think most of our staff has been correct often enough to have earned their credibility, and I think people who know the game in Division III would agree. But at the same time, if you’re going to step to the predictions plate, you’re going to swing and miss plenty.

    As I often say, I’ve been wrong before and I’ll be wrong again. But right now I’m right. :)

  59. kirasdad Says:

    The last time MTU gave up over 50 points was a Triple OT win vs. John Carroll in 1999 (57-51).

    The last time MTU gave up over 50 points in a 4 Quarter Game was Nov 17th 1962 in a 0-53 loss to Akron.

    I don’t think the Warhawks will go that high this weekend. Especially this year where MTU is only giving up 9.0 points a game (12.75 a game in the playoffs).

    Just not going to happen.

  60. 02Streak Says:

    IKnowitall - “What has Mount Union showed this year that really even gives them a chance against UWW?”

    Obviously you are not familiar with the OAC where every year any of the top three teams could make a run at the national title, and the fourth and fifth teams would advance past the first round. Lucky for the other conferences, the NCAA only accepts two teams from the OAC, and these two teams meet prior to the title game. This would be an all OAC title game if Captial would have been placed on the other side of the bracket than Mount Union.

    MUC - 24
    UWW - 21

  61. jimjearsa Says:

    lilpeds

    I have no doubt in my mind that the WW fans are every bit as respectful as the good MUC fans. As I said earlier. It’s always just a few bad ones that cause the wrong picture to be painted.

    Good Luck to both teams!

  62. sitlux Says:

    52 - 10 are you even familiar with reality? The #2 defense in the country practices daily against the #1 offense in the country and you think they’ll give up 52 points! Even if they don’t win it won’t be a 42 point game.

  63. D3Keith Says:

    In other words, in a lot of these matchups, I can see either team winning. You know the old saying ‘if we played 10 times …” The great thing about football is you only get to do it once.

    So even though I can see things going UW-W’s way just as I can see things going MUC’s way, nobody wants to hear that as your prediction. Even if you don’t take a stand in your words, you have to put up a score that says “here’s what I think.”

    It is what it is. Games like this often come down to who can run the ball better, who can stop the run/play great defense and who can generate turnovers … that’s true and all, but it makes for a lame-sounding predicition.

    Still, I won’t back off my Mount Union by a hair pick even though I think Whitewater is more talented.

    And for the record, we may pat ourselves on the back when we’re right, but if you look at the stuff that I write, it is frequently (and justifiably) self-deprecating, and the year-in-review has included the categories “we got these right” and “we got these wrong.” Don’t play us like we’re only telling the side of the story that makes us look cool.

    It’s quite possible that I’ve never picked the right Stagg Bowl winner. I must’ve hit MUC-Trinity in ‘02 …

  64. iceman2541 Says:

    D3Keith:

    Excellent points! We can’t forget “intangibles” too… battle of field position, weather, injuries, etc.

    If these 2 squads played ten times, the series might be 5-5 and nothing would get resolved. As you correctly point out, they play once. Just like the 2003 Fiesta Bowl. So what if Ohio State played the “perfect” game? They did it when it mattered.

    So, good luck to both schools and I can’t wait for the matchup this weekend!

  65. D3Keith Says:

    Ah,
    I meant to sign my post “Keith Kerry.”

    Flip-floppin’ in ‘05 baby-baby!

  66. Tuxguy Says:

    UWW-27
    MUC-17
    Looks like weather will play a part in this game!

  67. wildcat1144 Says:

    Whitwater by at least two touchdowns.

  68. wiac watcher Says:

    D3Keith,
    I’m sure you know that I wasn’t calling you out for picking MUC over UWW. That is your choice. My question is what changed from the beginning of the playoffs when you picked them to win it all? Certainly nothing WW has done on the field this playoff run. If it is because of the intangible that they have never been to the dance before, than, ok. but you knew from the beginning as well. Maybe it is because the opponent is MUC which is new info you didn’t have before and that would make sense as to why you re-evaluated your decision.

  69. fishingfool42 Says:

    You’ll have to forgive some of our overzealous UW fans. As with the football team itself, this will be our first trip to the Stagg and some are a bit pumped up. As has been said, for the most part, UW fans are very respectful. Don’t let a few bad apples spoil your opinion of us fans from Wisconsin. This has all the earmarks of a fantastic showdown between two very talented and excellently coached D3 football teams. Good luck to all involved and GO HAWKS!!

  70. patcummings Says:

    Whoever posted that they want to see someone other than Mount Union to win really has no clue…considering St. John’s and Linfield have taken the last two years.

    The only way to truly appreciate seven championships is to not get another one for three years…

  71. patcummings Says:

    And these blowout scores are ridunkulous…get real people.

  72. sitlux Says:

    D3Keith - speaking of ‘02 Trinity and intangibles, who would have ever thought drinking on the riverwalk would be an intangible.

  73. Poundtherock Says:

    Whitewater 24, Mt. Union 21

    Never seen Mt. Union play so this is pure speculation and wishful thinking. Does have the makings of a close one from all that I have read.

  74. seventiesraider Says:

    This Mount team recalls how it felt to walk off the field after the MHB game last year and vowed not to end another season that way

    Muc 38
    WW 28

    =66 RIP Bro

  75. D3Keith Says:

    wiac watcher,
    well, I was responding to three or so posts that called me out by name and/or quote. And it’s cool.

    My feeling at the beginning was that Whitewater could be the most talented team in the playoffs (and I’ve been known as a WIAC overrater) and could — could — defeat St. John’s and Linfield.

    However, I think this matchup plays into Mount Union’s hands in that Whitewater loves to run, Mount Union has a great run defense. Both teams have the skill kids and secondaries to play with each other, so I’d say unless one dominates the other in the trenches, it should be a good game that comes down to second-half defense and lack of turnovers.

    That is exactly Mount Union’s strength … to say nothing of an offensive line that has started four of the five for 27 games now.

    Mount Union’s not as sexy, if you will, as some of their past teams, but they won’t beat themselves. They will have to be straight up overpowered … I have seen it happened once (UMHB last year) so it’s not impossible …

    That’s really all that’s changed, is the matchup. I honestly think it could go either way by no more than 10 points (17 if some freak stuff happens), but if it comes down to bad weather, playing run defense and not making mistakes … as great as I think UW-W is, that’s MUC’s game.

    But I’ve been wrong before. A lot.

    Also, don’t overlook that while this is Berezowitz’s first trip to Salem with this team, he’s been there like the past 5 years as part of the D3 committee, the Linfield trip was a dry run for a long away trip against a big-time opponent and the guy has quarterbacked a national champion. He knows how things are run.

    Conversely, most of the people who actually got run for the last Mount Union team to win it are gone, as are many of the key guys from the last Salem team.

    I think that helps even out the intangibles, and I think a WIAC team and a team coming out of that West bracket this year has seen enough opponents that should intimidate them … no intimidation on either side by “tradition” or “size” or whatever … as one of my coaches somewhere along the way said, blow up your guy the first play or two of the game, then tell him it’s gonna be like that all day.

    That’s much more intimidating than a name on a jersey.

    FWIW (for what it’s worth)

  76. D3Keith Says:

    sitlux,
    you’re funny. I think that’s why I got that pick right. So, um, thanks Roy?

    (actually thinks that was all a shame)

  77. Kevin Says:

    Don Hansen predicts Whitewater 35 and Mount Union 14 and he’s a pretty good prognosticator.

  78. seventiesraider Says:

    Prognosticator - Perhaps
    Knowledgeable about DIII ?????

  79. OU#25 Says:

    Hansen sucks as a band and as a prognosticator.

  80. wiac watcher Says:

    Thanks, Keith, that was the info I was looking for. IMHO, however, don’t agree with the point that WW loves to run. It is only 1/2 of our very balance offense. They may have some success shutting down the run, (although SJU had a great rush defense as well,) but not for 4 quarters and when they do, WW just passes! What makes this team unusual for me is that most teams run and then pass when needed. This teams execution for both has given them the luxery of not caring which way they go. Pass or run, doesn’t really matter to them. And let’s not forget that WW’s defense has only allowed approximately 77 yards rushing on average in their 4 playoff games if my math is right. MUC having the better rush defense could be debated. Also giving the bad weather intangible to MCU doesn’t work for me either as the game against Wesley surely proved. Got 4 by air and 3 by foot in some pretty lousy conditions. Anyway, just a few of my thoughts. Thanks for talking with me. I always respect the opinions of D-3.com. Will be a great game but got to have faith in the Hawks and how far they have come and that they will find a way to win this game. Good luck to both teams, no injuries and safe travels to all.

  81. WarhawkFan610 Says:

    everyone face it. Whitewater can’t be beat and their defense is strong and with Stanley, Jacobs, Beaver and Jimmy all on offense Whitewater can’t be stopped. 14-0. if they don’t win I will be amazed. Mount Union is solid but Whitewater is better. We beat the number 1 and 3 team

  82. OU#25 Says:

    Well you don’t really know who the #1 team is until the end of the year. Polls are opinions by sportswriters who have their favorite teams as well. If Mount wins then they are actually the #1 team in the country and all that hot air about the West bracket being the best will certainly have been deflated and proven to be untrue.

  83. wiac watcher Says:

    And visa versa, of course!!!

  84. wildcat1144 Says:

    OU#25,

    If pools are “opinions by sportswriters who have their favorite teams”…then I guess all the writers favorite team this year was Linfield.

    I don’t know how you can say that it’s “hot air” about the west being the toughest and deepest bracket in the palyoffs. It’s pretty clear that the west was the toughest bracket to advance in.

    However, that doesn’t mean squat because it all comes down to this Saturday.

    Unless UWW falls all over themselves and turn the rock over to MUC then I don’t see how the Warhawks lose this game.

  85. wildcat1144 Says:

    excuse me….”polls”

  86. RAIDER98 Says:

    IKnowitall
    Have you EVER played football, other than playing X BOX? Coach K will have the boys ready to go!

    MUC 27
    WW 17

  87. Q-man Says:

    Ready or not, I think it is UWW by 14

  88. saidentary Says:

    Augie had a great team this year that was mentally and physically tough, talented, focused and hungry. MUC won 44-7, mainly on the strength of their o-line and a frosh rb who scampered for 361 yards. People who are counting MUC out are just INSANE! I’d be furious if I were a UWW fan, with all these blabbermouths helping to motivate the Purple Raiders. D-1 atheletes? MUC has ‘em too, even recruited a transfer for the wide-out position. Wow! This is gonna be an interesting game. Good luck to both teams.

  89. saidentary Says:

    p.s. If I’d have seen a UWW game, I’d feel more comfy in making a prediction. The only point is this: These are both great teams, and it’s surprising to me that so many people are so confident in what the outcome will be.

  90. RAIDER98 Says:

    They do not know how to act…..they have NEVER been here before.

  91. kirasdad Says:

    saidentary
    “even recruited a transfer for the wide-out position”

    Please read this article and then explain how MTU recruited Garcon:
    http://www.d3football.com/features.php?feature=84

  92. fowler57 Says:

    Team from Cheeseland 21
    Team from Ohio 12

  93. fowler57 Says:

    Normally a team that is new to the playoffs is lucky to make to the 2nd round. However this team is abnormal. They’ve won impressively in the post season taking down the 2003 Champ, SJU, and the 2004 Champs, Linfield. I also expect them to beat the 2002 champs, Mount Union.

  94. Iknowitall Says:

    Come on with this stats crap. We all know UWW offense is light years better then Mount Unions. How can you compare Offense/Defensive stats when they have no common oppenents and play in different leagues. Lets keep it real here. UWW defense is better too. If Mount Union tries to play smash mouth football game will be over real fast. Jacobs is gonna carve up that secondary Saturday especially if there is snow. Ask Wesley how they did on the snowy field against UWW Div 1 athletes.

  95. oldmantoo Says:

    I am so glad there are so many know it alls. I guess my concern is which MUC team shows up. When they are sharp they are near impossible to beat but the offense in particular has been uneven this year. During the middle of the season, they did not look like the MUC teams that we have been used to seeing. Then they turned it around. Fortunately they have been on a roll in the playoffs. The defense has been extremely impressive. Looking at the stats it was interesting to see finally a team that is more penalized than MUC!

    You know about stats and how they lie, but since we got nothing else to really go on, I will go with MUC since it wins the battle of the numbers, as long as the ‘good offense’ shows up.

  96. saidentary Says:

    kirasdad,

    oh……yeah….. I see that he contacted THEM. OOPS!! My bad! Please accept my apologies. Thanks for the clarification. The statement, “even recruited a transfer for the wide-out position,” was ignorant.
    The article even said that MUC historically hasn’t had that many transfers. Please excuse me while I go wipe the egg off my face that I was eating as a side dish with the crow.

  97. saidentary Says:

    Now I have black feathers stuck in my teeth too.

  98. thebigmp Says:

    Ah yes, this promises to be a classic matchup between an established power (Mt. Union) and an upstart on the rise (UW-W). With all the purple and black flying in the breeze, it wouldn’t surprise me if Prince came to Salem and did the halftime show. Let’s have fun out there and for those of us who can’t make it, we’ll be tuned in to ESPN2!

  99. uwwbandbari Says:

    After seeing how much our guys were running THROUGH the Wesley players rather than around them, I feel we’re going to see some amazing play out of our Hawks. On many runs by Justin Beaver, and one punt return I remember, the Hawks drove the Wesley defenders right into the ground with a good ol’ fashion stiff arm. They’re hungry and aggressive and I see them coming out as pumped as ever.

    WW 42 MUC 24

  100. D3forme Says:

    UWW - 28
    MUC - 18

    I feel it’s going to be similar to last year’s Stagg. Not as much scoring as was expected due to good defense. Now that I’ve said that it will probably be 48-38.

  101. U-WW finatic Says:

    Who is the Willy Will character that Pounds32 is talking about?

  102. U-WW finatic Says:

    Ohh yeah,

    U-WW big over the MUC purpler haters

  103. lilpeds Says:

    Great article Pat.

    Leaving later tonight for the game, hope the roads aren’t as bad on the way down as they are up here.

  104. rigg0123 Says:

    who’s got the better kicker and punter?

  105. lilpeds Says:

    What I’ve seen out of the Whitewater kickers, it’s more inconsistency than anything. Chaulk has a good leg - made a 44 yarder against St. John’s. I believe that’s his season long. He has missed a couple extra points (69 for 74). He tends to come up clutch, though (12 for 15 FG’s) and overall is a reliable kicker.

    As for the punter Nick Croak’s average per punt (34.3 yds), it’s a little decieving. He’s had 19 punts inside the 20, helping the UWW field position. He had a few against Linfield that were about 50. He kicks it high, too, allowing the gunners to get down there (like Stanley). Their net average is 32.5, so punt returners basically get very little.

    That’s their kickers scouting report. I don’t know anything about MUC’s.

    Special teams/field position will be big in this one, too.

  106. sju4ever Says:

    It takes a darn good team to beat SJU 34-7, even with all of the SJU turnovers. The last team to beat the Johnnies like that was the 2001 MUC squad (I think 35-15 in the Natl semis). I haven’t seen that type of domination out of 2005 MUC squad. Considering those two factors I’d say it’s:
    UWW 31
    MUC 21

  107. seventiesraider Says:

    Hard to really compare punters. Firstly Mount Union only punted 38 times, but of that 27 were by the Soph who will punt if necessary Saturday. Matt Massaro is averaging 34.1 with eight inside the 20. His longest is 50 yards.

    Mike Zimmerman is the field goal kicker. He is 12-19 and 74-78 on PAT’s. He is pretty consustant inside 30 yards. His longest is 40 yards. Hope that helps.

  108. D3forme Says:

    Don’t think anyone has asked this yet: If MUC had not dropped a regular season game this year, would they still be the underdog? Would UWW, having been the first team to run through the WIAC in a long time and with wins over Central, SJU, Linfield still be the favorite?

  109. D3forme Says:

    And when I say UWW is the favorite right now, I realize that is somewhat debatable, since the experts seem pretty divided. But based on posters comments and the line which someone said has UWW as a +4, they appear to be the favorite.

  110. UWPCJ77Superfan Says:

    AS A wiac graduate of Platteville, I have no love for UWW. However, you cannot deny they are a great team by their playoff performance. Mount Union has tradition, but came from a soft bracket. i predict UWW will defend our conference in the tradition of UW lacrosse. They will win a close game and uplift the best D3 Conference in the USA. Tomorrow you fans and alumni of both schools can wear a purple finger twice in the same week. GO USA!

  111. RaiderJake Says:

    I think it is funny people are underestimating Mount. The OAC is by far the toughest conference in the country. You play 3-4 playoff caliber games before the playoffs even start. Mount can pull the “upset” this Saturday. They are a solid team……their defense will give the Warhawks trouble.

  112. iceman2541 Says:

    That loss was Mt. Union’s first regular season loss in 11 years and only their….. what, 3rd since 1996. No team is going to win every game. Sometimes those types of losses do nothing but motivate. We’ll see.

    While some feel Mount may have had a “soft” bracket, I don’t think Capital and Rowan are doormats by any stretch of the imagination. Had Mount not opted to go for a number of 4th downs against Rowan, the score may have been more lopsided, but make no doubt of the Raiders domination. If I am not mistaken, they had the ball more than 40 minutes. In any event, you have to get ready to play every week, regardless of the team on the other side, and I imagine that is exactly what both teams are gearing up for tomorrow.

    Congratulations to both schools and both conferences for fine years.

  113. UWW-fan5 Says:

    Once again with the toughest conference stuff?? Articles written on this site named the WIAC as the toughest conference…………… “The OAC is by far the toughest conference in the country. You play 3-4 playoff caliber games before the playoffs even start.” -RaiderJake………I’m not doubting the OAC is a tough conference, but you obviously have never seen true WIAC football. Never a blowout, never a bad game. Its not possible to beat a team 66-0 in the WIAC just because all are so evenly matched. This is a good reason why their isnt ever any undefeated teams in the WIAC, and a good reason why we only are able to get 1 team into the playoffs.

    If Linfield cant outscore WW, how will Mount Union??? Talking to some of the players as well, no one on WW is afraid of this Mount Union D. Not a new challenge, especially with so many offensive weapons.

    Do hope to see both teams bring their best.

    UWW 38
    MUC 21

  114. MUCfan49 Says:

    “If Linfield cant outscore WW, how will Mount Union??? ”
    Maybe because Mount Union is number 1 in total offense and post more points on average than UW-W does.

    Alot of you do not like to hear numbers but seeing as the game hasn’t been played yet that is all we have to go on for now. And enough with the UW-W has so many offensive weapons, like we don’t? Pierre and Casto, two wideouts with 1000+ this year and Boehm who has about 500 in only 3-4 starts. Kmic is about to get 1000 yards for the PLAYOFFS. And Ibeh our fullback hasn’t had that much of an impact in the playoffs but being his last game ever I expect big things from him. And Jorris the QB is in the top 5 for QB effiency. I just had to mention that because all I hear is UW-W is unstoppable on offense when actually both teams have players with very similar stats.

  115. Iknowitall Says:

    I know this Mount Union talk is nuts. They have no chance tomorrow. Too bad Linfield cant play tomorrow in place the rematch would be epic although UWW would win by 2 touchdowns. If Coach Berewitz shows mercy it will only be 38-7. If he sticks the knife in it could be 65-7. I get sick of this Capital crap. they squeeked by two bad playoff opponents North Central and Wabash, hardly scored any points in those games. Then they roll up 34 on Mount Union and they should have won the game. You have to wonder how intimidated Mount Unions players are right now. You can see the fear in them and their coaches eyes. UWW is the USC of D3 football this year. Problem is Mount Union aint Texas more comparable to a Northern Illinois. WIAC is best confernence right now no doubht

  116. Iknowitall Says:

    One more thing Mount Unions offensive numbers were against much weaker competition. Look at Wesleys vaunted offense how much of an offensive explosion they have last Saturday in the Perk? UWW will be up and down the field Satuday. For any team looking to get to this level watch and learn how offenise football is played on Satuday. This freshaman running back for Mount Union, saturday he will be welcomed to WIAC football!!!! No John Carrolls, Capitals, or Ohio Norterns out here Saturday. Can you say speed and athletism!

  117. MUCfan49 Says:

    Iknowitall whatever you are on pass it this way. Please go to muc.edu and read the pre game quotes, the team does not really sound that intimidated. I know how tough it must be for you to maybe admit this will be a good game and show weakness that your beloved UW-W might have a tough opponent but to say that they will win 65-7 is truely insane. I am cheering for Mount but I am not going to say they will win 65-7, I have more respect for the Warhawks’ and they would not be in the game if they were not good. So your comments just sure your immaturity and disrespect for our school.

  118. kirasdad Says:

    UDon’tKnowAnything,
    UWW = USC
    MTU = NIU

    WTF????

    I think you need to quit drinking all that cough syrup. IF, UWW wins tomorrow, I will be the first one to congratulate you all, but jeez, have some objectivity when posting. This is just rediculous. Again, IF UWW wins, it will not be a blowout by any means.

  119. UWW-fan5 Says:

    MUCfan49…….So you think Mount Union has a better offense than Whitewater and Linfield??? I’m not sure if that’s what your saying, but if it is, your crazy. You guys are able to run up your numbers when you play teams like Heidelberg. We had no teams on our schedule like that this year. The one major blowout, and the worst team I believe we played all year was Lakeland College, a playoff team…….And by the way, we average more points than Mount Union. 42.1-41.8. Check the numbers next time.

    Run Up The Score Warhawks!!!!

  120. MUCfan49 Says:

    Having not seen you play it is hard to tell. But I am just talking about overall the consenus of these messages make it sound like Mount Union is incapable of putting a drive together. I was just stating that from the game notes it appears that Mount and UW-W have similar numbers in regards to each position, the one exception being that we have two RB’s over 1,000 and UW-W having one at 2,000 and not sure if #18 and #3 are RB or FB for you guys. My mistake on the point averages, got a little mixed up on who had more because I was just going off of memory on that one.

  121. wildcat1144 Says:

    “If Linfield cant outscore WW, how will Mount Union??? ”

    Easy…don’t turn the ball over 4 times (1 for a TD) and you have a pretty good shot. WW created their own luck with some good D-Line play vs. Linfield in the turnover department but the Warhawks DB’s were being used all game long vs. Linfield.

    Regardless I still like WW by 10

  122. MUCfan49 Says:

    wildcat1144,

    You just mentioned the Warhawks DB’s being used in the Linfield game. Does that normally happen or was that just a freak occurence. Mount likes to go deep to Pierre alot but Jorris has trouble getting it to him when he isn’t wide open. Even when he is it is hard, for example against Rowan, Pierre beat a DB by about 10 yards and Jorris threw it right to the Rowan player. But if the DB’s aren’t as fast then a deep ball to Garcon might be something Mount goes to alot tomorrow.

  123. UWW-fan5 Says:

    UWW DB’s are fast, and solid. The Linfield wideouts and obviously QB are off the charts. Their passing game is a thing of beauty. I couldnt imagine any secondary hanging with them.

    Both #18 and #3 are our back-up RB’s. Travis Reuland #9 is our FB. Underrated FB at that.

    The numbers may be similar between the teams, but I dont think the opponents are equal. Again, just opinion.

    Go Warhawks!

  124. joelmama Says:

    Mount - 21
    WWW - 13

    know it all know we understand your thinking. IF you think LK is intimidated by any d3 team then we truly understand where you are coming from.

    Right now LK is finalizing his game plan in the Wyndam hotel like he has done eight other times in the last 12 years. He has the best record in the history of college football. I don’t think he wil be the coach that is intimidated tomorrow.

  125. UWW-fan5 Says:

    anyone who says 13 points by uww has no clue what they are talking about

  126. Iknowitall Says:

    No disrespect at all to Mount Union. What they accomplished for last decade is incredible, probably unmatched, what UWW is striving for. But this UWW team is incredible, unbeatable machine. I hate to see a storied program take one like they will tomorrow but LK game plan wont make a differnce. You could take greatest coaching minds for the last 15 years and put them all on the sideline tomorrow but it wont matter………….

  127. UWW-fan5 Says:

    Dont downplay how good of a coach Bob Berezowitz is. He’s been around for a long time with good reason. I dont think coaching will win the football game tomorrow.

  128. MucATOAlum Says:

    Ive been reading these for a little while now, and I’m so disgruntled by all the spam that I just had to log on and leave my own message. First of all, lets be realistic. Both of these football teams are exceptional, and a blowout will not occir on either end. Both coaches are exceptional in that they have advanced their teams to the National stage with a chance for a championship. These teams mirror one another in both offensive firepower and defensive presence. This will be a tight game from the onset, and it could go either way. Its going to be a game of momentum, all be it, a turnover, big special teams play, or otherwise. Being a former Raider player and excited fan ready to watch a great game of live high caliber football, my herat is obviously with MUC, however, UW-W can and will bring it, and Im just excited to be a part of it. So no more downplaying each others players, coaches, and supporting staffs. Just enjoy the game for what its billed to be….a National Championship! If I anyone knew who was gonna win, then we woudn’t be playing the game! Everyone is beatable on any given day, and may the best team win…..Nonetheless, GO RAIDERS!!!!!!!

  129. MucATOAlum Says:

    One other thing…..It’s kind of sketchy to downplay the strength of the OAC….If you’ve noticed, the OAC has more playoff wins than any other conference in history. On the same note, the WIAC is a very strong conference as well, so I beleive conference strenghths negate one another. Also, many players who play national championship caliber D-III football become D-I caliber athletes by the time their careers are over. More and more D-III players are making their way to the league every year. I think this year, and these two teams are no exception. Hope its nice out tomorrow!!!! Enjoy the game…..wear purple!!!!!

  130. UWW-fan5 Says:

    MucATOAlum
    If you dont like the comments, why are you reading them??? Everyone has their own opinion, and wants to back their team. Either MUC or UWW fans are pulling fortheir team, and are trying to prove what makes their team superior……If everyone was like you, their would be no purpose for a message board. No one would post anything.

  131. UWW-fan5 Says:

    WIAC was rated the better conference this year.

    GO Warhawks!!!!

  132. kirasdad Says:

    I agree that the WIAC is probably top-bottom the best conference in DIII, but the OAC is no slouch either (”No Judge, you’re a tremendous slouch”). The Top 4-5 schools in the OAC could probably win a first round game in any playoff year and our bottom 5 may not be anything to write home about, but seeing how JCU, ONU, CU are starting to beat up on each other and catch up to MTU (ONU took them this year if you haven’t heard) I think the OAC is getting even tougher.

    Good Luck to both teams today and here is to an injury free, cleanly played win by the Raiders!

  133. pcole Says:

    D3football.com declared Pat Cummings the D3football.com predictions champ with a projected final of Mount Union 27, UW-Whitewater 21.

    We also would like to recognize MUCfan49, who was the first commenter who got the score correct.

    Once again, the collective wisdom of the D3football.com experts, which picked Mount Union 5-4, was correct.