Final playoff projections
Nov
2006
It’s all over but the number crunching, right?
Some years Pool B is a bear. Pool C is always a bear. And bracketing the teams is often easy to project but distasteful to do thanks to the NCAA’s grip on the pursestrings.
This year, at least, Pool B is easy. Three teams ran the table and finished 10-0, with Washington & Jefferson finishing 9-1. There were no other one-loss teams … or teams with two overall losses … in Pool B. Carnegie Mellon will give the UAA a playoff representative for the first time since 1999.
Pool C was not as easy. There are nine teams with one loss and only seven spots in Pool C. This year our team of bracketologists went one step further in our playoff projections, mocking up the final regional rankings that the committee will work from. We felt this was important with the shuffling in the East Region and especially the West, because Pool C candidates are evaluated in the order in which they are ranked in the region. The top team on the board in each of the four regions are evaluated against each other, and once a team is put in the field, the next team from its region replaces it on the list.
These are the primary criteria (not in priority order) which will be reviewed by the NCAA:
• Win-loss percentage against regional opponents
• In-region head-to-head competition
• In-region results against common regional opponents
• In-region results vs. regionally ranked teams.
Opponents are considered ranked only if they are ranked at the time of the ranking or playoff selection process.
• Quality of wins index–only contests versus regional competition (see Quality of Wins on the left-hand rail for most recent calculation)
• Conference postseason contest(s) is included.
One thing was brought home to me over the past year: Note that some areas say “results” against regional opponents, regionally ranked teams, etc. This does not say winning percentage. It’s possible that merely playing a regionally ranked team and losing is better than going 0-0. Something to keep in mind.
Here’s our best guess at the Field of 32, through the end of the regular season.
Wilkes Bracket
1. Wilkes (A)
2. Springfield (A)
3. St. John Fisher (C)
4. Hobart (C)
5. Union (A)
6. Rowan (A)
7. Dickinson (A)
8. Curry (A)
Hobart and Union are conference rivals, who do not need to meet in the first round as long as the NCAA’s “geographic proximity” is maintained. Curry plays at Wilkes, Dickinson at Springfield, Union at St. John Fisher and Rowan at Hobart. Dickinson moves over because … alas … we do not project Cortland State to be in the bracket. More on those decisions later.
Mount Union Bracket
1. Mount Union (A)
2. Capital (C)
3. Concordia (Wis.) (A)
4. Wheaton (C)
5. Mt. St. Joseph (A)
6. North Central (A)
7. Wittenberg (A)
8. Hope (A)
No shuffling required here. Remember, the NCAA has not flinched in the past at rematches of teams that met in non-conference games. Therefore, Wittenberg playing Capital again and Concordia and North Central meeting up is not a problem. Mt. St. Joseph cost itself a home game with its loss to Thomas More. Again note who’s absent, just the two Pool C teams in this bracket.
Wesley Bracket
1. Wesley (B)
2. Mary Hardin-Baylor (A)
3. Hardin-Simmons (C)
4. Carnegie Mellon (B)
5. Washington and Jefferson (B)
6. Christopher Newport (A)
7. Millsaps (A)
8. Washington and Lee (A)
Wow, Washington and Lee, falling behind a team that wasn’t even in the regional rankings last week. Ouch. Bad way to go into the playoffs. Now, of course, this is a vastly geographically challenged bracket. Millsaps can get to Mary Hardin-Baylor in 491.7 miles according to the NCAA’s approved mapping software (Mappoint, available to all online, with the shortest possible distance setting as always). This opens up a potential flight to bring someone to Hardin-Simmons, and Christopher Newport is seeded perfectly for the task. The two Pittsburgh-area teams play each other … and Washington and Lee goes to Wesley.
Wait, did we just construct a South bracket where the seedings hold true? Stop the presses!
Oh, right, no presses on the Web. So we march on.
UW-Whitewater Bracket
1. UW-Whitewater (A)
2. Central (A)
3. Whitworth (B)
4. UW-La Crosse (C)
5. Occidental (A)
6. Bethel (A)
7. St. John’s (C)
8. St. Norbert (A)
This is another bracket that requires a flight, with Occidental and Whitworth the logical teams to pair. St. Norbert treks to Whitewater, St. John’s to Central and Bethel to UW-La Crosse.
So our seven Pool C teams: Capital, St. John Fisher, Hobart, Wheaton, Hardin-Simmons, UW-La Crosse and St. John’s. The final three teams at the end were St. John’s, Cortland State and Franklin. (Trinity, as the top remaining South team, was also on the board but wasn’t a factor.) All three have very similar criteria.
We pondered some bracket scenarios in case the NCAA selected Franklin. That would put them in the North bracket in the No. 6 spot. North Central, most likely, would lift out of the North and head to the West where they would be a No. 8 seed, behind St. Norbert in most of the criteria. If they selected Cortland, then Dickinson stays in the South as the No. 6, Washington and Jefferson would likely move to the North, likely as the No. 6, and North Central goes to the West.
November 12th, 2006 at 1:26 am
I can only speak knowledgeably on the South bracket, Pat, but I think your projections are spot-on there.
November 12th, 2006 at 1:28 am
Except the fact that you’v got Hobart ranked 4 and Union ranked 5 on the bracket….
I think you meant to have Rowan at 5 and Union at 6 correct?
November 12th, 2006 at 1:32 am
I think he means the seedings that he has, but sometimes the seedings don’t necessarily lead to the matchups, he probably means that (4) Hobart will play (6) Rowan and (3) fisher will play (5) Union, to avoid the conference rematch.
November 12th, 2006 at 1:34 am
Yes, avoiding the conference rematch, as I wrote.
November 12th, 2006 at 1:36 am
Should be an interesting day! Look forward to seeing you on ESPNNEWS!! What’s the over/under on mispronounced schools this year?
November 12th, 2006 at 1:37 am
Oops, just saw the bracket not the blurb….
November 12th, 2006 at 1:56 am
Portgrad2004: Zero! That’s one of the reasons I’m in the studio instead of doing a live remote like in 2003 and 2004.
November 12th, 2006 at 1:59 am
Aha! I see Pat….that makes sense….We wouldn’t want them to call Hobart Hubert or something like that….
Wouldn’t it be more fun to make ESPN look foolish? Nah! Good job keep them in line!
November 12th, 2006 at 2:00 am
Also I didn’t like it when they stuffed you in the ESPN Zone!
November 12th, 2006 at 2:07 am
Ehh, nah, they take this seriously. Same anchor as last year, too.
November 12th, 2006 at 2:18 am
Wow, what games have you been watching ? Cortland State’s only loss was on the road to a strong Rowan team in OT…They ended the season with a tough OT win using their 4th string QB…
Cortland will be in the field tomorrow. Anything else would be an injustice.
November 12th, 2006 at 3:26 am
What about Bridgewater? Even though they may have two losses they are still the best team in the ODAC. After their past showing in the playoffs they should get the nudge this year.
November 12th, 2006 at 3:36 am
It doesn’t matter who Hobart plays in the 1st round. Both Rowan and Union have beaten them the past two years in huge competition plays. However, the Statesmen have a very solid senior class backed by talented juniors and sophmores that can turn any game around if they play together. What might prove to be the difference is the special teams of Hobart, lead by punter Dominick Ancona, who is one of the best punters in D3 football with an average of 41 yrds a punt. If Ancona maintains his prowess, the Statesmen defense will be able to control the game because of field position domination. If the Game is played at Hobart, I have the Statesmen coming with the win, only if the offense plays as a unit and the defense plays Hobart football. Union and Rowan are going to face a very different team that is hungry for a trip to Salem.
November 12th, 2006 at 4:15 am
Pat,
why would you think the committee would move north central to the west bracket and not concordia? seems easier to move them?
November 12th, 2006 at 5:17 am
I would hate to say it but I have had a sick feeling all week Cortland would be left out of the playoffs no matter what they did in Cortaca. The NCAA As a Cortland fan I hold my head high. We were 9-1, with 1 loss on the road in OT with our 3rd string QB to the defending regional champions. We blew out Montclair, beat Ithaca, and got big victories over Kean and Brockport.
If that isn’t enough, then there isn’t much we can say about it.
Dickinson has 0 wins versus teams with a winning record this season. Did you read what I just wrote? 0 wins. They played two decent teams - Ursinus and Hobart, and lost to both of them. Why does the East need this team when it has strong teams from strong conferences with better records than Dickinson? To boot Dickinson barely won the games they won. 14-0 over Juniata? 22-21 over Hampden-Sydney? Give me a break. They would be mid-pack in the NJAC.
Yeah I know we are getting into the whole Pool A vs Pool C thing, and that Dickinson and Cortland are not competing for the same playoff spot. But they sure are if Dickinson gets moved into the East.
I say keep Cortland should be in this bracket. Send them to Wilkes (a mere 2 hour trip), match Curry with Springfield, and lets get thing on.
November 12th, 2006 at 6:39 am
Del-Val’s last 3 games have pulled them into the play-offs! Yesterdays blanking of host Widner (ranked second in scoring) was well earned! They also blanked host Juniata the previous week! They are playing on all cylinders right now! The MAC Champ for the last 2 years is ready and poised to defend their title!! GO AGGIES!!
November 12th, 2006 at 7:06 am
Pat…..certainly respct your D3 knowledge but Franklin should absolutely get a spot…..high powered offense and a really strong defense….. a team that is playing their best football at the end of the season. Their phenomenal fan base WILL TRAVEL in big numbers wherever they go!!! This is a high octane team that can be really dangerous……smacking Hanover yesterday and the week before shutting out a potentially playoff bound Defiance team on the road coupled with their early season win over Wabash are reasoins enough to send the Grizzlies to the playoffs…..the committee should recognize and reward schools that have had phenomenal seasons whether or not they are “new kids on the block” Franklin celebrated 100 years of football at the college a few years ago….they deserve this opportunity!
November 12th, 2006 at 8:23 am
Thank you RunFerrum for your kind words. The announcers at yesterday’s BC/Catholic game said that Millsaps would have to beat Trinity for BC to get in to the tournament. Millsaps defeated Trinity 34-12. What else would have to happen for BC to get in. If we don’t get in, it could be due to lackluster play against Guilford and E&H;in which case, we have it coming.
November 12th, 2006 at 8:26 am
Two NJAC teams belong in the playoffs. Dickenson probably wouldn’t beat Kean. They might even be bottom three in the NJAC.
November 12th, 2006 at 8:31 am
Usee: They don’t usually move higher seeded teams. It’s not hard to move North Central either.
mpEagle: Your broadcast team failed you. You needed probably to have about six teams lose for Bridgewater to get in.
November 12th, 2006 at 8:50 am
Going stricly on records, you leave out some very excellent teams. A week 2 OT loss to # 12 Wilkes and a mid-season upset by Susquehanna should not penalize a team like Delaware Valley that finished second in the MAC behind Wilkes, the #1 seed in your regional picks, and finished by shutting out its last three opponents, good teams from Kings and Widener.
Other teams with similar records made your list.
This is not a down year for the MAC. It is a year where the MAC has gained some parity in its ranks. The emergence of Wilkes and Kings to join Delaware Valley and Widener at the top of the MAC should tell you that.
November 12th, 2006 at 8:52 am
Ehh, no offense, but it should penalize Delaware Valley. Two losses, one to a 2-8 team? Not gonna make the cut any time. Remember Wilkes was the last one in last year and its second loss was to a 5-5 team.
November 12th, 2006 at 8:55 am
Cortland does belong over Dickenson.With only 1 loss to a quality team on the road I would be surprised if they don’t get in. The only thing negative is the fact that they are down to a 4th string QB, but that was good enough to beat Ithaca when they had to. Enough of that . GO PRIDE!
November 12th, 2006 at 9:09 am
If Cortland doesn’t get in, that would be a big screw job IMHO. Also, Rowan deserves to be in among the top four seeds. The Profs should have a home game in round one, given Union’s loss to RPI and Cortland’s defeat of Ithaca.
BTW D1-AA Robert Morris finished at 7-4 and in second place in their conference. During the season they beat at least one team ranked in the D1-AA top 25. Remember Rowan doesn’t play Harwick, Utica, Norwich, WPI, Becker, Endicott etc. Something should be said for how tough the NJAC is.
If it were me setting the bracket:
1. Wilkes
2. Springfield
3. St. John Fisher
4. Rowan
5. Hobart
6. Cortland
7. Union
8. Curry
November 12th, 2006 at 9:15 am
Pat…Would Union be projected to be behind Hobart because of their 2 losses even though the won the AQ and beat Hobart? All the “logic” makes my head spin.
November 12th, 2006 at 9:35 am
Dickinson won their conference and has EARNED an automatic bid.
Win your conference and don’t leave it up to the committee.
BTW, CortlandFootball, the Dickinson-Juniata game was an absolute mudbowl. Scoring points was nearly impossible. Maybe you stick to building your team up instead of trying to knock others. Good luck - hope you make it.
GO DEVILS!!!
November 12th, 2006 at 9:39 am
Pat,
What was your reasoning for taking SJU over the other two: Cortland and Franklin? If you look at QOW SJU is behind Cortland…not sure about Franklin.
I could go off here about how the East doesn’t deserve any pool C’s because the competition out there is not as good, but I won’t. Yes Rowan played MUC tough last year in losing 19-7, but they seem like an annomoly rather than the trend.
Year in year out the West is the toughest bracket based on scores in the games.
November 12th, 2006 at 9:56 am
Well I’ve resigned myself to Cortland not getting in. We’re the #15 team in the nation in last week’s D3Football poll, and we’ll probably go up after beating Ithaca. But that’s not enough to make the NCAA’s field of 32. I guess I’ll be pleasantly surprised if we get a bid at 2pm, but I know the odds are slim.
Just out of curiosity…I wonder who the highest ranked team in a D3Football poll to never make the playoffs was? Might we set an infamous record?
Cortland did declare for the ECAC’s. I don’t know how fired up the team will be to play in an ECAC game, but at least the seniors will get one more game before they graduate. I hope they put a chip on their shoulders for that game.
Another question…
Why is Rowan always ranked so low in these projections? Am I missing something? They lost 1 D3 game, in the NJAC, in OT to a long time rival with a 7-3 record. Look at Fisher’s loss - a blowout. Look at Hobart’s loss - a blowout. Springfield lost 24-7 to IC, which lost to Cortland, which lost to Rowan. Doesn’t anyone respect the NJAC? I never thought I’d become a Rowan fan, but I’m going to be their biggest supporter outside of the Boro if they end up seeded as low as we are projecting.
November 12th, 2006 at 10:11 am
Guys, Dickinson gets in because they won the Centennial Conference championship. There is no Dickinson versus Cortland choice to make.
IMO, the final spot comes down to Cortland and St. John’s–so I’m agreeing with Pat, et. al there. It will be interesting to see which one the committee picks, and how that affects other regions.
November 12th, 2006 at 10:49 am
CortlandFB -
Agree that if Cortland gets left out it would be a shame. Unfortunately, if this is the case, it will prob be due to an off year for the NJAC compared to other eastern conferences.
November 12th, 2006 at 10:52 am
I’m guessing it will be SJU as well but it will be very interesting if Courtland’s tiny Quality of Wins edge has any influence. Given the flaws in the Q of W, you’d think a difference that small wouldn’t get too much weight.
While it doesn’t mean much, it’s interesting at least to note that the last time the East managed to get a team to the Stagg. They were soundly beaten by a No. 7 West seed (and a few years later another West No. 7 played Mount Union in that great 10-7 Stagg).
I’ll admit it now that I feared all along that SJU was a bit overated this year. It did not win in its usual style. Seemed very inconsistent. Despite starting with two wins over the WIAC (UWEC was down a bit), Concordia was also down and Carleton was improved but not the breakthrough team everyone thought. The problem is once they start winning and keep winning it’s tough to downgrade them.
Bottom line: It didn’t improve throughout the season as the better SJU teams do. Combined with the injuries vs. Bethel, it could be a tough go for SJU — assuming it gets in.
November 12th, 2006 at 10:58 am
I understand why Dickinson gets in, but Cortland not getting in is a travesty! Surely there’s a way for Cortland to get in. One loss in OT and beating IC? 9-1 record? Is it that upstate NY has too many good teams?
November 12th, 2006 at 11:04 am
Oxy will get Central. Whitworth will wither.
November 12th, 2006 at 11:17 am
Pat is probably resting for his big appearance today, so maybe I can help answer some of these questions since I was involved in the projection process.
“What was your reasoning for taking SJU over the other two: Cortland and Franklin? If you look at QOW SJU is behind Cortland…not sure about Franklin.”
Franklin (10.400) is actually in front of both teams in QOW, but we projected SJU instead for a couple reasons.
1) First, what you don’t see here is the mock regional projections we had to make before the Pool C picks. To truly simulate the process, that’s what you have to do – pick the regional top 10 and then pick the Pool Cs. That’s how the committee does it.
We thought yesterday’s results dropped Ithaca out of the East regional rankings, opening a spot for another team like Delaware Valley. Why does that matter? Because by knocking Ithaca out of the regional rankings, Cortland deprives itself of a “win against regionally ranked teams.” An unfortunate Catch-22 for the Red Dragons. Suddenly Cortland’s only regionally ranked opponent is Rowan to whom they lost.
Similarly in the West, there is some chance that Wartburg drops out of the regional rankings by losing to Dubuque and St. Olaf takes their place. If that’s the case, SJU gains a win over a regionally ranked opponent to go 1-1 with the loss to Bethel.
2) The QOQ difference between Cortland and SJU is relatively small (10.222 to 10.200). Base on past experience, the difference between two teams needs to be more substantial for it to be the only deciding factor.
3) The Committee has taken two MIAC teams in the past. Like last year and the year before that. The same can be said for the NJAC, but not the HCAC. Plus the HCAC has gone 1-7 in the playoffs since automatic bids were awarded. They might fall into the same category as MWC, NEFC and some other conferences as being highly unlikely to grab two bids.
4) Because the primary criteria are so close and there aren’t any secondary criteria, we looked at how the Regional committees have treated each of these teams in previous Regional Rankings. Cortland entered the week behind SJF and Hobart and probably won’t leap them. Franklin entered the week behind Capital and Wheaton (Ill.) and probably won’t leap them either.
SJU on the other hand was second in the region. Would a loss really drop them from No. 2 to out of the playoffs completely? We suspect not – so they got the final Pool C bid in our projections.
November 12th, 2006 at 11:19 am
Bigdubdiesel, judging from the time at which you posted your “Hobart love letter” I would guess that you just came off a celebration from the win over Rochester. Hobart will only ever be as good a team to win one game in the NCAA’s because of their high school style of football. Lining 8 up in the box and blitzing everyone on every play is hardly college football. I’d like to see Cortland make it in instead of Hobart or have those two teams play. My selections for the dance…
1) Wilkes
Curry…….Why they let a team from the NEFC play in the NCAA’s is beyond me!!!! Bottom team from Liberty League leaves and becomes a contender the very next year shows you something. Any decent team wanted to make it to the National playoffs just to say they did should join that league!!!!! Curry goes ever year and gets pounded….this just doesn’t make sense.
2) Springfield
3) Fisher
4) Rowan
5) Union
6) Cortland
7) Dickinson
November 12th, 2006 at 11:19 am
Last year’s debacle, sending OXY on the road to #1 Linfield was embarrasing for the NCAA. Please make some amends this year and give us fans in LA a home game! Better yet, send Central out here for a revenge game since the last meeting…the ice bowl of 1986 playoffs, a 71-0 Dutchies rout on a frozen field.
November 12th, 2006 at 11:24 am
Pat
If the #1’s hold true do you see #1 thru #4 as
1. Mt.Union
2. U-W Whitewater
3. Wesley
4. Wilkes
November 12th, 2006 at 11:26 am
You people need to chill about the automatic bids. That’s the game, it always has been…no matter what the sport. Cortland wouldn’t even get a sniff if this was a 28-team tournament.
Can there be an upset - absolutely. It is what it is, so if you don’t do your job, this is the risk you run.
November 12th, 2006 at 11:28 am
Why is Rowan always ranked so low in these projections? Am I missing something?
A fair question considering Rowan’s national reputation and their dominance of the East region. The reason is that the Profs don’t do well in the more mathematical criteria.
They only had 7 regional games (Robert Morris and CNU aren’t in region) so losing a game gives them a Regional Win Percentage of .857. Of the ten teams in our mock regional rankings, that is only higher than Union and Del Val.
In QOW, the Profs have a 9.587. That is only higher than Del Val and lower than every other AQ in the region, even Curry. Remember that the QOW is based on mathematical criteria (what was the record of the team you beat, where did you play them) not subjective criteria like is Coast Guard really better than TCNJ.
They lost 1 D3 game, in the NJAC, in OT to a long time rival with a 7-3 record. Look at Fisher’s loss - a blowout. Look at Hobart’s loss - a blowout. Springfield lost 24-7 to IC, which lost to Cortland, which lost to Rowan.
Del-Val’s last 3 games have pulled them into the play-offs! Yesterdays blanking of host Widner (ranked second in scoring) was well earned!
This is an issue that comes up a lot when talking to fans and even coaches. Margin of victory is not a criteria and there’s no evidence that it is considered at all.
In other words, Delaware Valley’s 3 straight shut outs is impressive but not all that important for the committee’s selections. The loss to Susquehanna (who ended up giving Del Val a 0 in QOW for that game) matters far, far more. Incidentally I spoke with Del Val Head Coach Jim Clements after yesterday’s game. He said it best – if you don’t win the conference, you don’t control your own destiny and there’s a good chance you’re not getting in.
Similarly, the Committee has shown that is less concerned about margin of defeat in ranking the Pool C teams in the East. Cortland did lose to Rowan by less than SJF lost to Springfield and Hobart lost to Union. But the Cards and the Statesmen were both in front of Cortland in last week’s regional rankings.
November 12th, 2006 at 11:34 am
I’ve been reading and thinking about all the sceanrios. Here’s what I don’t like. And I’ll admit I’m more than a little biased. Per the d3 gang CNU shuold go to HSU. Why? CNU, UMHB and HSU all have 1 in region loss. CNU beat ASC champ UMHB. Common opponents for CNU and HSU is UMHB…CNU won, HSU lost……….makes no sense to me….Seems to me…send someone else to HSU or UMHB…..if CNU has to play a Texas team…they come to our house!!
November 12th, 2006 at 11:38 am
Sorry about the excessive bolding on the last one. Or maybe I should say sorry about the excessive bolding on the last one.
Moving right along…
”Just out of curiosity…I wonder who the highest ranked team in a D3Football poll to never make the playoffs was? Might we set an infamous record?”
Very good question. Of course, we’ve only been doing our Top 25 poll for a couple years and the NCAA only expanded to 32 teams last year. So you’ve got a couple different variables that limit the amount of data to consider (wow, social science nerd alert).
Here are the highest ranked teams in our poll who missed the playoffs…
2003: Mary-Hardin Baylor (No. 15 in the final poll, No. 11 entering the playoffs)
2004: Ohio Northern (No. 19 in the final poll, No. 15 entering the playoffs)
2005: Ohio Northern (No. 18 in the final poll, No. 20 entering the playoffs)
Cortland will probably be in the No. 13-15 range this week. So UMHB may keep this infamous record.
November 12th, 2006 at 11:38 am
It’s all just thought and conjecture until the selections are actually made today at 2PM!
So hold on to your bootstraps because I have the feeling it’s gonna be a bumpy ride and someone will most likely be left out that deserves to be in! But isn’t that a credit to the quality of D-3 football in the northeast?
I know that’s no consalation to a team that wins 9 football games, but after watching and listening to d-3 football every week it’s amaising how good each team actually is and how competative each league is!
Even with NCAA basketball every year they select a huge field of teams and still someone feels they have been left out! Good luck to all it’s been a hell of a season!
November 12th, 2006 at 11:43 am
Would Union be projected to be behind Hobart because of their 2 losses even though the won the AQ and beat Hobart?
We think so based on the Regional Win Percentage and QOW.
Hobart 0.889, 11.667, 1-1 (Beat Hobart, lost to Union)
Union 0.778, 10.444 1-1 (Beat Hobart, Lost to Springfield)
Maybe the committee will favor head-to-head result (another primary criteria) more, but this is generally the kind of difference in QOW and regional winning % that has an impact.
November 12th, 2006 at 11:44 am
By the way, our record with projections is generally very good, but not perfect, on picking the teams.
Last year we missed one (Alfred for Wilkes). So there’s reason for Cortland and Franklin fans to hold out hope here.
November 12th, 2006 at 12:19 pm
Oops. That Hobart line two posts above should read “Beat Alfred, lost to Union.”
November 12th, 2006 at 12:21 pm
Gordon…thanks for giving me the reasoning on why you selected SJU over Franklin and Cortland…I am an SJU fan but not confident that we will get the bid and I will say it again any pool C that gets in from the East would not fare well in the WIAC or the MIAC…I think St. Olaf and Oshkosh would be better teams
November 12th, 2006 at 12:30 pm
I disagree that St. Olaf or Oshkosh would be better than Cortland State, which we project to be out.
November 12th, 2006 at 12:31 pm
LC5 - when did being aggressive and attacking on defense become the equivalent of “playing hs football”?
gordon - thx for the explanations
November 12th, 2006 at 12:33 pm
I don’t like the West vs. East comparisons, because they basically never play each other so who knows? On top of that, it seems when they do play each other in the playoffs, the East team has to travel across the country rather than the other way around. Think RPI being shipped to St John’s.
I have a novel idea. Let’s see a MIAC team travel to Glassboro to play Rowan in the playoffs? Or send them to Union? I wonder how strong the west would look after traveling that far and playing on the other team’s turf and dealing with a hostile crowd.
It’s kinda like the College Bowl system. For years the theory was Miami, FSU, Florida, etc were the best teams in the nation because they proved iit in the bowls every January. Of course, every January they got to play the bowls in their backyards, in the climate they were used to, with no jet lag to deal with. Think Miami would have been so dominant playing Notre Dame in a bowl hosted in the mid west? How about playing the Rose Bowl in Michigan? It becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
November 12th, 2006 at 12:46 pm
Cortland not in the playoffs !? Ridiculous……..9-1 record with their two final games going into overtime . Their lone OT loss to a tough Rowan team and dont forget the big win in OT over Ithaca - anyone who was there knows what a thriller it was - raining: who cares ! Give those men their just reward - they deserve it.
November 12th, 2006 at 1:06 pm
Pat -
What are you doing still posting on here?! Shouldn’t you be in makeup?
Looking forward to the show!
For the anchors sake, no Muhlenberg, Thiel or UW-Eau Claire this year.
November 12th, 2006 at 1:11 pm
Actually, yes, heading to makeup now.
November 12th, 2006 at 1:15 pm
If Cortland doesn’t make it in I will not be following D3 football anmore. I amy as well follow Division I, or maybe even Boxing or figure skating where we can expect somebody to be screwed.
I have to have faith in the system here.
November 12th, 2006 at 1:18 pm
And I hope none the people who make the postseason selections are on the staff of D3football, it is bad enough if they check out the site they would be negatively influenced….
9-1 with the only loss against a strong Rowan team on the road in OT with the 3rd string QB….
Shame Shame if they leave Cortland out
November 12th, 2006 at 1:20 pm
Give me a break — we’d love to have that kind of influence. We do not.
Don’t make us the enemy just because we project your team to be out. That’s going a little far.
November 12th, 2006 at 1:32 pm
Cstate,
Two one-loss teams are going to be left out, that’s just the nature of the beast this year. It may or may not be Cortland. The Pool C field this year happens to be more full than years past with one-loss teams. In years past, we may not even be having this discussion. In the 28-team field, more one-loss teams would be left out. And before the present system, the NCAA would select the four best teams from one particular region. And usually that guaranteed all kinds of gripes.
While the system isn’t perfect, it’s the best one that the NCAA has. Someone is going to be upset, that happens. It’s just like the NCAA basketball tournament, there’s always teams that probably should be in, but do not receive a bid.
If Cortland does not get selected for the playoffs, its no reason not to follow Division III football anymore. It’s like not getting picked in kickball after you’ve been playing it all school year, and because you’re not picked, you take your things and go home.
November 12th, 2006 at 1:36 pm
Johnny–
I understand the comparison but you are way off–this is a bit more important than if I get picked for kickball….and if I was one of the best 15 kickball players in the area and I wasnt picked for a 32 player team I wouldnt think that was right either….
November 12th, 2006 at 1:36 pm
Pat: I really have enjoyed following D3 football on the site this year!!! You do an awesomne job!! I know many folks here are pulling for Franklin to get in….high powered offense and a lot of defense coached by one of the classiest coaches in D3 in Mike Leonard makes an unbeatable combination. In or out, Franklin loses Danny Sears to graduation, but not a huge senior class…. Chad Rupp is a sophmore and TJ Hartsfield is a junior, so the future is really bright for the Grizzlies……keep a close eye on them!!!!
November 12th, 2006 at 1:41 pm
For what it’s worth, I never liked kickball.
Okay — that’s not worth very much.
November 12th, 2006 at 1:47 pm
Pat -
As soon as the commentator next to you starts to make a point, I want you to get a crazed look on your face, stare at the camera, and yell “NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND!”
Do it. That will make me laugh.
November 12th, 2006 at 1:52 pm
CState- Cortland in may push UW-LaCrosse or SJU out. UW-LaCrosse is the number 10 team in the AFCA poll and number 8 in the D3football poll; SJU was number 3 in both polls and will fall, but I would doubt no lower than 13 or so (near Rowan). So in that case, Cortland would be the worst ranked of the three. Does it make sense to include Cortland at the expense of one of the other two then?
November 12th, 2006 at 1:56 pm
Works for me
November 12th, 2006 at 1:57 pm
Hey CORTLANDFOOTBALL … I am the commentator that sits next to Pat… he better not pull any Corso stuff on me!! Good luck!
November 12th, 2006 at 2:05 pm
HERE WE GO !
November 12th, 2006 at 2:16 pm
REDICULOUS…..I’M DONE.
November 12th, 2006 at 2:20 pm
One last note:
Pat sits on air in front of the nation and says Rowan could be a sleeper to go far and to make some noise….but he tries to justify leaving Cortland out when their only loss was to his man loving Rowan team in Rowan in OT…
This just makes my skin crawl…
later D3 people, I may as well go play kickball then watch some boxing….
LOL…an OT loss to a top team on the road with a 3rd string QB..unreal…
November 12th, 2006 at 2:20 pm
One last note:
Pat sits on air in front of the nation and says Rowan could be a sleeper to go far and to make some noise….but he tries to justify leaving Cortland out when their only loss was to his man loving Rowan team in Rowan in OT…
This just makes my skin crawl…
later D3 people, I may as well go play kickball then watch some boxing….
LOL…an OT loss to a top team on the road with a 3rd string QB..unreal…
November 12th, 2006 at 2:21 pm
OOps., sorry about the double post
November 12th, 2006 at 2:35 pm
Thank you for your patience. We had to disable the Dose for a few minutes while our server loads sky-rocketed. They should remain online the rest of the day.
November 12th, 2006 at 2:39 pm
“On top of that, it seems when they do play each other in the playoffs, the East team has to travel across the country rather than the other way around. Think RPI being shipped to St John’s.
I have a novel idea. Let’s see a MIAC team travel to Glassboro to play Rowan in the playoffs? Or send them to Union? I wonder how strong the west would look after traveling that far and playing on the other team’s turf and dealing with a hostile crowd.”
—
How much is a home crowd worth: 28 points?
It was 38-10 SJU over RPI.
52 points?
It was 52-zip Linfield over Rowan, the beast of the East.
Who knew Courtland was such fabulous whine country. (I’ll take an Oregon bottle anyday.)
November 12th, 2006 at 2:40 pm
Easy CState. It has nothing to do with Pat. I thought he gave us some props on national TV when he and Dari mentioned us as one of the surprise teams to be left out. ESPNews also showed numerous video highlights of Cortland, which I thought was great.
This is highly disappointing, but the system is what the system is.
Dari - nicely done. Hope you have better news for us next year.
Congratulations to the teams which made it in. Hopefully Eastern Region steps up this playoff.
When does the ECAC Selection show start?
November 12th, 2006 at 9:22 pm
“I wonder who the highest ranked team in a D3Football poll to never make the playoffs was?”
My guess was Ohio Northern last year. Gordon did the math and gave you the answer.
“CSTATE89to93 Says:
later D3 people, I may as well go play kickball then watch some boxing…”
Good riddance.
It’s one thing to be mad about your team being left out. It’s another thing to take out on the guy delivering the message. You ever heard the phrase “don’t shoot the messenger.”
Clearly, since D3football.com’s poll has Cortland well into the top 20, we think they’re one of the 32 best teams in the country. But the playoffs are set up for fair access, not necessarily to be fair.
I think any 9-1 team with a legitimate schedule whose only loss is in overtime to the automatic qualifier should be in. That is a textbook Pool C case in my view. But Cortland is out, and you can’t blame the committee, and you most certainly can’t blame D3football.com.
Cortland had its shot on the field. That, by definition, is “fair access.” Having been at the Rowan game, I know Cortland had its shots at winning, despite the QB troubles.
The committee sets its at-large criteria out well in advance, and sticks to it. You have to admire them for that. The reasons for one team getting in over another are generally there in writing.
When that criteria benefitted Cortland’s 8-2 team last year, I don’t remember you or any other alumni crying about how unfair it was.
It’s not a perfect system, but it is explained in advance, in writing, and it’s much, much better than the alternative.
If you can’t be rational about your team not getting in (try emulating CortlandFootball), I’m sure everyone here would just as soon have you be a figure skating or kickball fan.
November 13th, 2006 at 12:38 am
Forgive me if this has been mentioned, but Pat’s projection not only nailed all 32 teams, but got 22 of the seeds correctly, 23 if you count W&L being an 8 seed in the East, not the South as Pat guessed.
The other seeds were all off by no more than one spot, except Rowan, which Pat had as a 6 and the committee a 4.
And frankly, I think Pat’s South Region, regardless of whether Dickinson or W&L is the 8 seed, makes more sense than the committee’s.
I was completely hands off the playoff predictions and saw them the same way/time fans saw them, so my congrats are true, not just a way to have one site guy pat the other site guy on the back.
November 13th, 2006 at 12:48 am
Thanks, man. But credit has to go to Gordon Mann as well. He’s worked with me on bracketology for a few years now, both football and basketball. I don’t do it alone.
November 13th, 2006 at 1:10 am
I like these points:
CortlandFootball “Why is Rowan always ranked so low in these projections? Am I missing something? They lost 1 D3 game, in the NJAC, in OT to a long time rival with a 7-3 record. Look at Fisher’s loss - a blowout. Look at Hobart’s loss - a blowout. Springfield lost 24-7 to IC, which lost to Cortland, which lost to Rowan.”
CNU85 “…..if CNU has to play a Texas team…they come to our house!! ”
Course, you never have to worry about a Texas team leaving Texas early.
GordonMann: “Incidentally I spoke with Del Val Head Coach Jim Clements after yesterday’s game. He said it best – if you don’t win the conference, you don’t control your own destiny and there’s a good chance you’re not getting in.”
Right on, coach.
November 13th, 2006 at 10:13 am
Thanks for the props Keith. I wish I knew you were on the field at the Rowan game. I would have liked to have met you.
CState89to93 is frustrated. So am I. I think he will probably regret what he wrote, and realize he overreacted. Don’t be too hard on him. I also agree we were lucky to have the system benefit Cortland in 2005. Though I would gladly trade the 2005 bid for the 2006 bid considering how much better this team is than last year’s team was.
I also have to give Pat, Gordon, and the staff a ton of credit. You guys absolutely nailed it. Even if Pat didn’t follow my directions on air, I still enjoyed the too.
Here are some more questions for you guys:
1) Why does the NCAA look at regional victories so closely, if they are choosing between teams on a national level? In other words, if it comes down to between Hobart and St John’s for the final Pool C bid, what does Hobart’s eastern record have to do with St John’s western record? It is not in any way a worthwhile comparision. It seems to me it would actually be better to look at records OUTSIDE of region in this case.
2) Why does the NCAA rely on QoW for D3? In D1, the (much maligned) BCS takes advantage of the existence of well-developed, well-researched computer ranking systems. Many of these ranking systems also rank D3 teams. Why wouldn’t the NCAA use them? I have a lot more faith in what Massey thinks of a team, than in what QoW thinks of a team.
3) Is there any movement afoot to simply combine Pool’s B and C? Within 2 years it looks like almost everyone except for the independents, and a few conferences, will be Pool A/C eligible.
November 13th, 2006 at 12:09 pm
Pat -
The other thing I forgot to mention is I wanted to thank you for using my picture from Cortaca on the D3Football front page. I appreciate the exposure (no pun intended).
Of all the pictures I have taken the last few years, that is one of my favorites. I have it on my computer desktop. Considering how lousy the conditions were that day I was pleasantly surprised at how well the pictures came out.
November 13th, 2006 at 12:11 pm
CortlandFootball, the NCAA is exploring using opponents’ opponents’ record instead of QOWI in in D3 sports in the next few seasons. I believe that they are getting the bugs out now.
November 13th, 2006 at 8:21 pm
Cortland,
Ah, you didn’t miss much, not meeting me. I’m sure I’ll see Cortland again, although I picked another fine year to not go to Cortaca. I’m sure when I finally go it’ll be 45-7.
The emphasis on regional games, as I understand it, was to encourage Division III schools, most of whom are on very limited budgets, to schedule manageable trips first, rather than trying to have superpowers play each other. You can do that if you want to, but they’re saying that game can’t help or hurt you, at least in primary criteria.
However, I think the D3 powers that be admitted the regional emphasis is flawed when it changed the regional game designation this year, basically making everything but Colby vs. Cal Lutheran a regional game. Because there are so few D3s west of the Rockies and in the Southern part of the country, those schools had very limited scheduling options, and were going into the playoffs with six and seven regional games when other teams had 10. Going 6-1 was always going to have them losing to a 9-1, by percentage, so I’m guessing they felt it was unfair.
I think we make too big a deal of QoWI. If I were on the committee, I would only use it to point out major schedule discrepancies. The 10.222 of Cortland vs. 10.000 of St. John’s, for example, doesn’t tell us a whole lot, and I think the committee was justified in going either way on those two teams. You never want some random result, like whether Carleton beat Hamline, to determine whether St. John’s is more worthy than Cortland.
When the PAC and NWC get their AQs next year and the year after, respectively, there may hardly be a Pool B at all. The UMAC is breaking up into the SLIAC and getting an AQ in 2010 or 11 too.
Ralph breaks this all down somewhere on Post Patterns, I think deep in the Pool B thread. It paints a pretty clear picture, or at least an educated guess, of where the Pool system is headed.
I do believe the goal is to have everyone be able to say they had a legitimate shot at a playoff bid when the season started.