Immediate reaction to 2006 bracket
Nov
2006
Alright, well, I’ve had the bracket in my hands for almost five hours so I’ve probably come to grips with it, but you guys haven’t had it nearly as long so it’s time to let out those pent-up frustrations.
I would really like to get to the bottom of the Millsaps mileage issue. The folks on the committee told me that the number they got was higher than 500 miles, so I’d like to know what it takes to standardize these distances. There’s a Web site the NCAA mandates schools to use to determine whether a game is in-region and that is indeed the site I used. Why they got different numbers, neither of us is sure.
In the end, it just means we have a regional semifinal one week early.
Looking forward to the potential matchup of Rowan and Wilkes in the second round. That should be a great game. Rowan is just getting its offense in gear and I’m not sure that Hobart, which struggled with William Paterson and others, can keep up. Wilkes is strong on defense as well. I haven’t seen the field since September, so I wonder what it looks like now.
Springfield, as I mentioned on the air, is in shape to play two games on turf, which bodes well for their offense. They need a lower seed to advance out of the other half of the bracket so they can continue to host on turf. They would get that if Rowan were to beat Wilkes, but I also doubt the Springfield/St. John Fisher potential rematch in round two would replicate round one. Springfield will still be favored but that doesn’t mean the game will be the same.
Can anyone aside from Capital hang with Mount Union in the top bracket? Can Capital even do it?
Kind of a neat story to get two long-time playoff drought teams together in round one in Pittsburgh. Contrast in styles, too.
West, two storied programs meet in the first round in Pella, while Bethel tries again to get the first-round monkey off its back.
Floor open for your thoughts.
November 12th, 2006 at 3:42 pm
Two conference teams playing in the first round should never happen. What a jip for the conference.
AND, two WIAC teams may be playing each other in the second round…
pcole, nice job on ESPN News.
Is there going to be a playoff pool this year on d3football.com?
November 12th, 2006 at 3:44 pm
SeanGOP - yes there is going to be a Pick ‘em this year. Look for it tomorrow mid-afternoon.
November 12th, 2006 at 3:45 pm
Interesting how things turned out in the south. Texas teams get screwed, and all the predictions topple over as a result. Still need an explanation why CMU and W+J aren’t playing each other. And instead of Dickinson moving, it’s W+L.
November 12th, 2006 at 3:45 pm
Prediction - St. Norbert gets beat by at least 40 points.
November 12th, 2006 at 3:48 pm
Worth mentioning that three “national powers” had their playoff streaks come to an end.
Trinity’s nine-year, Bridgewater’s six-year and Linfield’s four-year.
Congrats to their previous success! Should be interesting to see if they can return in 2007, or if it’s a more permanent changing of the guard in the SCAC, ODAC and NWC.
None-the-less, very inpressive by those three schools!
November 12th, 2006 at 3:56 pm
Pat, My first post ever. Your playoff projections were awesome. I was really excited to play Millsaps the first round at home.Obviously I underestimated the stupidity of the committee. I just went to Mappoint and also got 491.6 by the SHORTEST DISTANCE the second time I punched it in. The first time it gave the interstate route even on SHORTEST DISTANCE. If “shortest distance on mappoint” is truly the 500 mile fly/bus criteria, the NCAA has once again proven they are idiots of the first magnitude. Any goofball should be able to tell from the map that comes online there has to be a shorter distance to get from Jackson to Belton than IH 20 and IH 35. AND OF COURSE THERE IS!! Even mapquest has the shortest distance at 498 miles. Oh, and what about the inviolate rule of no conference rematches in the first round. I know UMHB can beat HSU again, but to beat such a fine team twice in the same year is tough. THIS IS NOT FAIR–AGAIN!!!
November 12th, 2006 at 3:57 pm
The East bracket is a total injustice to Cortland. The Red Dragons play in a tougher conference with a one loss season and still did not make the NCAA. Union and Hobart are in the same boat and was chosen to represent a soft conference. I don’t understand the logic in Union chosen over Cortlland. Totally WRONG. Go C-State.
November 12th, 2006 at 4:11 pm
The “soft conference” had a team (Hobart) that beat Cortland in the playoffs last year.
November 12th, 2006 at 4:13 pm
Pat,
I think I may have figured out how you received a different distance for Millsaps. I went to MSN Mappoint and typed in Jackson, MS to Belton, TX using the shortest distant choice and received 491.6 miles. When I selected the shortest time choice, however, I received 530.3 miles. This would put Millsaps over the 500 mile limit. I don’t think it should be judged by time, but rather by distance. Does 30 miles really make that big of a difference? I don’t think so. Then the committee sends Millsaps on a 963.2 mile trip to Carnegie Mellon. I guess I don’t understand the committee’s thoughts. The situation, however, does make for a great game on Sat. in Belton.
November 12th, 2006 at 4:13 pm
texas1 wake up, Union got an automatic bid. Learn about the system before you put it down! The LL is not soft either, but I do think that Cortland does play in a tougher conference overall. If Union did not get the automatic bid then I agree that Cortland would be a better choice. Maybe you were thinking of Hobart? Either way, you better hope Rowen beats Hobart or you will be totally wrong.
November 12th, 2006 at 4:29 pm
Either way. Cortland is a better choice over the 2nd place team in LL. Both LL will not past round 2 of the NCAA.
November 12th, 2006 at 4:37 pm
Well, aside from the frustrations perpetrated a bureaucracy that is not held accountable for its imperfect processes and yet seeks to promote “best practices” (Mappoint shortest distance vs. some version of Mapquest or whatever), the South Region is hard to comprehend.
We see the seedings by the most recent QOWI.
1) Wesley 12.200 #1
Millsaps 8.700 #60T
2) HSU 11.000 #11
3) UMHB 10.500 #17
4) CNU 10.444 #18T
5T) CMU 10.333 #21T
5T) W&J 10.333 #21T
7) Dickinson 9.500 #35
9) Wash & Lee 8.500 #66T
How much earlier does W&J have to leave to drive across 3-4 states, depending on the route, from western PA to eastern VA to get to the playoff game. Isn’t the geographic proximity about not missing classtime? What about the W&J students who might wish to drive into Pittsburgh to see the Presidents play a playoff game?
My cynical side says that CMU got the most favorable draw (aside from Wesley) in the first round. I am also going with Millsaps to get the first round win!
The plane flight thing could bite the NCAA’s budget! As for now, if higher seeds win, we have one flight in the first round (Millsaps to CMU), one in the second round (CNU winner vs Texas) and maybe a UMHB/HSU back to Wesley–3 flights.
I can see Millsaps beating CMU (one flight), Millsaps going to Wesley (2nd flight), CNU-W&J winner vs Texas Winner (3rd flight), Texas winner to Wesley for the South Region (4th flight).
I could have imagined Dickinson going to the East where I am certain they are more likely to have preferred than Wesley.
CMU-W&J/ Wesley-CNU/ and UMHB-Millsaps/HSU-W&L — one flight
CMU winner to Wesley/ and HSU to UMHB no flights
Wesley hosting Texas winner — one flight.
We maintain conference integrity for the ASC with this bracket. I realize that CNU gets the short end of that one.
There is lots of frustration in the ASC and from other Texas fans about the job that the selection committee did to us!
November 12th, 2006 at 4:43 pm
The brackets have been updated to include the seedings. View the updated brackets.
November 12th, 2006 at 5:23 pm
If you’re a fan of Cortland State or Franklin, you’re upset. Understandibly.
The rest of the brackets, save the Texas fiasco, are pretty much what everybody expected. As a HSU fan, I’m just at a loss for words on the first round pairing. I’m sure the UMHB fans feel about the same way.
AA really has it in for us Texas folks, I guess.
November 12th, 2006 at 5:27 pm
Does anybody know how many players a team can dress at home or on the road?
November 12th, 2006 at 5:28 pm
Really, would Cortland? Who is the only team to come out of the East….? Not Cortland! So you could say Cortland would not get past the 2nd round as well. You sholdn’t be bitter, you sound like a little boy crying. I agree that Cortland should go instead of Hobart but, didn’t hobart beat you guys in the playoffs last year? As I recall Hobart finished 2nd in the LL last season also. So you make it sound like a travisty that Hobart got selected ahead of Cortland, but just last year they beat you. Listen man I do agree with you somewhat, but don’t be that bitter guy. I don’t think Cortland should be punished for losing to Rowen in OT, and I think they have been. I can only imagine how good Cortland would have been with their number #1 QB playing all year long. It is a touchy situation. Just simmer on the LL, because again, if it is such a weak conference how did its 2nd place team beat yours last year.
November 12th, 2006 at 5:29 pm
Pride,
I believe the number is 52 players plus 10 coaches. Pat will correct me if I am wrong but I believe that is the numbers I read earlier in the weekend.
November 12th, 2006 at 5:42 pm
Pride:
Yes, 52 players and 10 coaches, whether you’re at home or on the road.
November 12th, 2006 at 5:55 pm
Thanks Guys
November 12th, 2006 at 6:16 pm
It seems like the NCAA is more interested spending money to tell a school what it’s team mascot is than it is taking time and spending money to do the right thing when it comes to the brackets and seedings in D3.
There is no good or right reason that HSU & UMHB should be playing in the first round. The ASC is getting screwed on this bracket.
November 12th, 2006 at 6:34 pm
My initial reactions — and unlike Pat, I haven’t had very long to digest it — is the three rematches and some of the weak matchups in the first round which will guarantee a second-round appearance for some team who is worse than the UMHB/HSU loser. But Trinity/Millsaps did them no favors.
We’ve known about the West Coast sub-bracket and Texas sub-bracket for years; no use whining about them getting “screwed” when this has been established over several years, expected in advance and delivered on.
Cortland, which some people thought got favorable treatment (not unfair, just “lucky”) in being one of the last teams in last year ends up being the first team out this year.
Poetic justice, maybe. But an absolutely tough break when your team is 9-1 with an overtime loss. Cortland, as we mentioned, would have been a 1 or 2 seed in the East had it outscored Rowan in overtime, or nailed a field goal that hit the upright in regulation or any number of other small things that made a difference in that game.
A game of inches, as they say.
November 12th, 2006 at 6:53 pm
Keith, between the use of some sort of mileage standard OTHER than the NCAA-mandated Mappoint, and violation of the policy (I thought it was an actual rule, but apparently not) against rematches of conference foes in the first round, I do not think ’screwed’ is too strong a term for what happened to the ASC! (And I’m a CCIW guy.)
November 12th, 2006 at 6:54 pm
Its the same deal every year since about 2000 - Union, RPI and/or Bart make the playoffs and a few fans from the NJAC and E8 say how “soft” our conference is (then RPI goes to the F4 in 03, Bart beats Cortland and Union drops 55 on IC in 05- both of which counted for our high preseason rankings this year which probably helped us in the selection committee, etc).
To those few still living in the past, please wake up - it’s 2006 not 96 or 86.
I get Cortland’s frustration, but Bart deserved to go to the playoffs for the 5th time in 7 years.
The LL had 5 of its 7 teams finish the season above .500. The NJAC had 4 out of 8. Your 4th place team - which beat your 3rd place team - lost by 10 pts to the LL’s 6th place team, a 3-6 club.
Cortland’s non conference wins were over Morrisville (1-8) Brockport (4-6) and IC (7-3) - tough years for all of those teams (except maybe Morrisville). Ok, so the NJAC has Rowan, but even most Rowan posters would probably say that this season Rowan is having a “down year” by their standards too.
Bart on the other hand, beat Dickinson (CC Champ) and Alfred (7-3, who also beat IC) - up years for them.
When it comes down to limited space for lots of good teams, why shouldn’t the committee take the team that played a slightly tougher out of conference schedule and in slightly tougher league THIS SEASON?
No one has yet made a solid argument to me why Cortland was a better candidate than Hobart that they deserved the Pool C over them.
Of course, you hung with Rowan had a great season. I am not saying that the fact you were left out was a bad deal - it was - Cortland SHOULD have made it in, but the process isn’t perfect. But to say that Bart didn’t deserve it? That is just whining IMO.
All Bart can do now is go down to Rowan and beat them - otherwise, it will be the same old thing again next season about how weak the LL is….
November 12th, 2006 at 6:59 pm
Hobart may have beaten cortland last year in the playoffs but that was last year. This year cortland and hobart played a scrimmage before the season that I know doesnt count but still Cortland beat up on Hobart pretty easily. They actaully ended early because hobart was getting killed. It was a scrimmage but it was the week before the season started and i’m sure both teams were playing like it meant something. No one wants to start the season getting killed in a pratcie game. So for everyone who says Hobart deserves it, good thing it wasnt a scheduled game because you might be sitting at home this year instead of us.
November 12th, 2006 at 7:11 pm
Mr Ypsi, thanks for the the sentiment! As a CCIW fan who has seen that strong basketball conference dealt some strange administrative issues, you can understand our frustration.
Well, we just have to move on. Not fun, but that is the way that it goes!
November 12th, 2006 at 7:20 pm
Pat is about to appear on WONC 89.1 FM at North Central College. Tune in for playoff analysis.
http://www.wonc.org/
November 12th, 2006 at 7:26 pm
Sour Grapes. It’s a shame that Cortland did not get in, it is a shame. We’d be having this same debate if Cortland got in over Hobart. It could have went either way. Hobart the Co-LL champs got in and Cortland didnt. Cortland fans stop being partisan homers and use your brains to see that it could have went the other way. There is also a 7-3 team in the playoff team in the playoffs, why arent you blasting them. Why do you Cortland fans hate Hobart so much??? I’m not from around the area but all I see is hate, hate and more hate geared toward Hobart by Cortland fans.
November 12th, 2006 at 7:28 pm
pcole, great job today!
November 12th, 2006 at 7:28 pm
once again - no real logic to support your argument. you said it yourself
a) it was a preseason scrimmage that didn’t count
+
b) you THINK they were playing like it meant something
like i said b/f, it’s a raw deal for cortland. i am still not accepting you can gauge how good or bad a team is based on a meaningless scrimmage.
November 12th, 2006 at 7:29 pm
What a joke! Cortland should be in, don’t feel bad CS fans these are the same people that had Hobart ranked all year.
November 12th, 2006 at 7:31 pm
Perhaps they’re not blasting the 7-3 teams because they got automatic bids. That’s apples, you’re oranges.
November 12th, 2006 at 7:31 pm
Show’s over, thanks for listening.
November 12th, 2006 at 7:45 pm
Not much respect from the NY schools for the LL league - hard to understand. Union and IC have always had great battles with Union winning the last couple of meetings. As for Cortland, tough call. I would be upset too but you had to know it wasn’t a lock. Some years you’re in and some years you’re out but wow so much hobart trash talk. Congrats to the pumpkin heads and best of luck. To Cortland, bringing scrimmages into the discussion, come on. I recall Cortland having the #1 defense in the country in ‘89 and UC smoked them 40something to 14 (or around there). Sounds like everyone is picking SJF and Rowan or UC and ‘bart. Any score predictions?
November 12th, 2006 at 7:47 pm
got it pcole, i didnt know the 7-3 team got the AQ… Sorry Cortland, I feel for you but this could have went either way.
November 12th, 2006 at 7:57 pm
dcfbguy it’s not a hate for Hobart but a love for Football.Any team that could come out to play the way they did when they played Union for what was the league championship should not be skipping off to the playoffs.NO sour grapes just injustice.CS fans it’s not the first time they got it wrong and it won’t be the last,great season. A football fan
November 12th, 2006 at 8:18 pm
bart has one bad game and so they don’t deserve to go to the playoffs? like other parties have said - could have turned out the other way - cortland fans can’t fault bart - if the shoe was on the other foot - bart fans would have similar beefs over how they had a better QoW, etc.
like pat said - bart didn’t take your pool c bid away.
November 12th, 2006 at 8:23 pm
Cam08, again, you are funny and you make me laugh. Cortland fans this is getting crazy. Please stop the this garbage against Hobart. If you are going to refer to a scrimmage than I’ll refer to the game last year. You cannot win. All you can do is attempt to find a scapegoat in the LL. You have every right to be angry, Cortland is a very good team that deserved to be in, no doubt in my mind. You know many fans on this blog can come out with class when things go wrong for their teams. So stop the crying, and be upset, but stop trying to rip Hobart. You just don’t have enough factual info to support the claims against the LL, so grow up.
November 12th, 2006 at 8:28 pm
What’s done is done… We cant change anything, i feel for Cortland… Now they need do destroy their oppnent in the ECAC bowl to prove and show that they belonged in the tourney.
November 12th, 2006 at 8:42 pm
I’m glad you laugh so easy,and I am so sorry if I hurt the feelings of Barttie’s or the L.L.I’m just going to step out to see if I can find some class now. Tah Tah
November 12th, 2006 at 8:44 pm
I think we’re beginning to get to the point–if we haven’t already been there–where we (as fans) need to take into consideration the NCAA’s continued bias (for lack of a better term) against the Texas teams when evaluating playoff records for overall conference strength. After all, somebody has to lose this weekend.
November 12th, 2006 at 8:51 pm
Cortland deserved their shot. The real problem for them was the automatic conference winners with two or three losses. There are probably any number of teams with two or three losses that didn’t make it but are better than 75% of the field. And in the end, maybe one or two teams actually have a chance of beating or even coming close to Mount Union.
November 12th, 2006 at 8:55 pm
Oh, come on, give me a break, people. The system isn’t a surprise to Cortland State. It hasn’t changed in the past year — in the past seven years, really. The automatic bids went in in 1999 and they are an integral part of NCAA postseason at every level. This isn’t the time to start griping about that, folks.
November 12th, 2006 at 8:59 pm
Cam08, good luck buddy, no feelings hurt here. I think you and I just disagree on mostly everything. Sorry if I came on to strong.
November 12th, 2006 at 9:13 pm
Guys if you really wanted to gripe how about Pool B and C bids being combined? Not that it would change anything for Cortland. Of course you will really have a gripe if St. John’s loses in the first round, then you could say you should have been in instead of the Johnnies.
November 12th, 2006 at 9:14 pm
Can someone explain how the regions got seeded? The Mount Union Region is seeded #1 with only 3 teams in the most recent D3football.com top 25. One team is ranked #38 and another is unranked. The UW-Whitewater Region has all 8 teams ranked in the top 25, 5 in the top 10! This only comes into play in the semi-finals if two similarly seeded teams from differernt regions meet (the team from the higher seeded region gets home field).
November 12th, 2006 at 9:15 pm
The automatic bids have to be there or some conferences would never get a chance. But the whole conference concept and bid system has really ruined the local rivalries in Upstate NY. Once upon a time Hobart played Brockport, Ithaca, Cortland, Alfred, Hamilton, St. John Fisher, Buffalo St, Rochester… Now those are mostly gone and almost every road game is at least four hours away. Why are Cortland and Buff. State playing in the New Jersey Athletic Conference?? Everybody jumped on the conference bandwagon a few years ago and now you don’t play your next door neighbor. I just wondered if any one else has seen this happen in their neck of the woods??
November 12th, 2006 at 9:18 pm
Traditionally the NCAA seeds the bracket based on the No. 1 seed in that bracket, since the idea of seeding the brackets in the first place is to have a system in place for when equal high seeds advance.
November 12th, 2006 at 9:21 pm
Mr.dlippiel where I come from we get to talk a little trash with are football.And I am sorry but I must have missed when you came on strong,however my feelings are intacked.Go Hobart
November 12th, 2006 at 9:25 pm
Guess I’ll be the first to really comment on Franklin…
In my opinion, Franklin didn’t get screwed by the selection committee or the process. Franklin got screwed when Cortland and St John’s couldn’t take care of business themselves.
If those two teams beat Rowan and Bethel like they should have, Franklin would be in!
*removes tounge from cheek*
November 12th, 2006 at 9:37 pm
According to Microsoft Streets and Trips, it is 532.3 miles from Millsaps College to the University of Mary Hardin Baylor
November 12th, 2006 at 9:48 pm
On the shortest possible distance setting?
November 12th, 2006 at 9:56 pm
The 532.3 was the quickest. Shortest distance was 491.8.
Not knowing the roads in Texas, maybe the “shortest distance” route contains roads which buses aren’t allowed?????
November 12th, 2006 at 9:58 pm
It doesn’t matter — the rules say measure using shortest distance. That doesn’t bind the bus driver to actually travel the route!
November 12th, 2006 at 10:12 pm
Looks like its gonna be UWW versus Mount Union once again. I can’t wait for the Rematch!
November 12th, 2006 at 10:24 pm
The new official database is msn.mappoint.com.
I get 492.1 miles on my query.
US 84 and US 79 in east Texas are very good roads. You get onto I-20 just before the Louisiana border.
November 12th, 2006 at 10:26 pm
Mandefense, the roads in Texas are better than at least 75% of the states in the union … and that is practical experience talking. You want to worry about roads, feel free to worry about those in Arkansas or Louisiana.
November 12th, 2006 at 10:45 pm
two of the one loss teams had to be left out and would have a good beef…….this was known before the selection show……i see lets play some football
November 12th, 2006 at 10:55 pm
I see alot of folks pickin’ Millsaps to upset CMU. Considering all the gripes about CMU’s schedule, I wouldn’t call it an upset if they lose. Now I haven’t said anything as far as predictions with CMU this year, but I do feel like CMU has a good chance at home. Millsaps apparently runs the spread, which CMU has seen 6 out of the last 8 weeks and Colorado College was the only team who ran it to put more than 7 on the scoreboard. (I know, weak schedule) I think it will all fall on CMU staying calm and focused and doing what they’ve done all year to give themselves a shot at winning this game. Good luck to all playoff teams.
November 12th, 2006 at 10:55 pm
to anyone who cares - just wanted to say “hats off” to the DelVal Aggies. I realize the system for D3 playoffs is very good and in the final analysis we did not warrant a spot based on a bad loss in week 7 … was it the worst thing that happened? … or the best!… since that game, we have had 3 shutout victories, 2 on the road against good teams (Kings and Widener). Would anyone have liked to see us coming in as a # 8 seed?? Couldn’t be prouder of the effort they put forth to close the season. I’ll cherish the memories of the ‘04 and ‘05 squads and was hoping for a chance with this year’s team, but we’ll settle for an ECAC game … got no choice … might just be the best thing anyway! Go Aggies!!
PS - Congrats to all in there … have fun with it.
PSS - I feel for you Cortland fans … If only you took care of Rowan - believe me, I know the feeling (twice over)
PSSS If only the Susquehanna bus had broken down 3 weeks ago … Oh well
November 12th, 2006 at 11:12 pm
Tough break for Cortland. If they had made the NCAA’s, would either of their top two QB’s be ready? If not, what were their real chances of getting to round 2?
If they have any beef, its shouldn’t be with the Pool C teams from the East that made it (SJF & Hobart), but with the selection of St. John’s in the West.
If you compare the respective losses of these teams, St. John’s lost decisively, Cortland lost in OT. There is obvious bias toward the selection of St. John’s given its past playoff success, and more importantly the presence of a legend on its sideline.
However, I think when you compare the MIAC with the NJAC, it’s no contest. Further, Cortland has a quality win in conference (Montclair) and non-conference (Ithaca), while SJU’s sole quality win is conference foe St. Olaf, whose 8-2 record was built on a weak non-conference schedule, losses to Bethel and SJU, and wins against the weak sisters of the MIAC.
Regardless, the system in place allows for 25 automatic qualifiers, and 7 at large bids. So if you fail to take care of business and get an automatic bid, you reap what you sow.
November 12th, 2006 at 11:21 pm
OK, I’ll be the first to predict it. Cap will FINALLY knock off Mount Union this year. Hey, it’s got to happen sometime. They aren’t going to dominate through the end of time (or until something better than football is invented). My brother says that’s true, but it won’t happen until Kehres retires. And he may be right. But since it will happen eventually, it may as well start now. And why not us? Yes, this is total homerism, I know, but what better reason is out there right now? Just remember that you read it here first :).
November 12th, 2006 at 11:23 pm
Does anyone out there give Springfield a chance to get beyond their first round game vs. Curry College? What was their regional seed? That wasn’t shown on ESPNnews.
November 12th, 2006 at 11:27 pm
Seedings are listed on our bracket:
http://www.d3football.com/playoffs/06/bracket.htm
November 12th, 2006 at 11:30 pm
Thanks for that info; how do you feel about SC’s chances to advance beyond the second round?
November 12th, 2006 at 11:30 pm
“Isn’t the geographic proximity about not missing classtime?”
I always thought it was about cost containment, specifically with regard to bus trips vs. flights.
In other words, the seedings will be followed unless they need to be broken to save the cost(s) of one or more flights.
As I have said before, D3 can’t afford to pay for itself, and if it was required to by the evil powers that be at the NCAA, as some of you paint it, we might have a playoff system where deserving playoff teams turn down bids they can’t afford.
All of this complaining is understandable on one hand, but it’s also biting the hand that feeds us.
November 12th, 2006 at 11:43 pm
spfldcolfan -
the second round opponent will be a rematch against either Union or St. John Fisher, teams Springfield beat earlier in the season. It would be unfair to say that the Pride would be an overwhelming favorite against either team - and if I were a betting man, I’d take the over, cause none of these three has a chance of stopping each other, especially on turf.
While the Pride should be favored in the first round - it should be reminded that no New England conference playoff team has ever won a game in the NCAA post season tournament, and every year presents an opportunity to get that monkey off their back. No offense to Curry, but I just don’t see it happening this year.
SJF/Union is also a toss up. These are two very similar teams that have shown flashes of offensive and defensive brilliance. The home field will provide a marginal advantage, as the new style turf is identicial to Union’s, virtually taking field conditions out of play. Expect both teams to put up some points in this one.
November 12th, 2006 at 11:52 pm
BDTartan: “Millsaps apparently runs the spread, which CMU has seen 6 out of the last 8 weeks and Colorado College was the only team who ran it to put more than 7 on the scoreboard.”
None of the teams they faced were top 25 in total offense as Millsaps is. Millsaps runs a spread, but still runs for 120+ avg. per game. Also, Millsaps moved the ball against Trinity’ “Black Flag” defense without throwing very much, and without the help of their starting tailback who left the game mid way through the first quarter.
You also have to consider how many points are scored on defense and special teams. Millsaps does alot of scoring through its’ non-offensive teams.
PCOLE, what do you think of the Millsaps/CMU matchup? I think it’s an awesome opportunity for a tradtionally/geographically southern team to go into the northeast and play against a team who they know nothing about, and who knows nothing about them.
It’s a shame that UMHB and UHS must play this early on, but the best teams will win regarless of when and where they play, and both schools are beyond admirable.
November 13th, 2006 at 12:05 am
While I’m at it, I’ll make a run at the other East Regional games.
Wilkes/Washington & Lee. While I don’t see Wilkes as a long-term contender, it shouldn’t have a problem here. Washington & Lee’s presence in this tournament clearly illustrates the flaws of awarding automatic bids. Its two non-conference losses were to mediocre clubs, and it enters the tournament with 3 losses. Wilkes got a big break when the committee opted to move this team up North instead of Dickinson.
Rowan/Hobart. After shedding my LL bias, I’d have to go with Rowan here. I don’t know if it will be that close either. Its a long painful road trip for the Statesmen. I saw Rowan beat Union last year in a thriller. Both teams are well coached, but, on balance, Rowan’s athleticism on defense is a big edge. Moreover, they have a superb quarterback who has yet to hit stride with a young receiving corps. They usually seem to find this stride come playoff time, and playing at home in this spot is worth 2 touchdowns.
Round 2. Wilkes/Rowan. Sorry Wilkes, Prince Rowan will not be returning the glass slipper in this fairy tale season. Rowan makes its upteenth trip to a regional final after this one.
November 13th, 2006 at 12:17 am
Dutchman89,
Your closing “reap what you sow” comment was on point, and Cortland might have a beef with St. John’s, but not for some of the reasons you stated.
“If you compare the respective losses of these teams, St. John’s lost decisively, Cortland lost in OT.”
True, but margin of victory/defeat is not part of the selection committee’s publicly listed criteria.
“There is obvious bias toward the selection of St. John’s given its past playoff success, and more importantly the presence of a legend on its sideline.”
By this logic, Lycoming should have made the playoffs too.
You sure it’s just not because the committee thought St. John’s was more deserving of a bid than Cortland? Had you even considered that?
“However, I think when you compare the MIAC with the NJAC, it’s no contest.”
In whose favor? I know you’re trying to say the NJAC is a power league and the MIAC is not, but when we’ve crunched the numbers, asked around and rated them, they usually grade out right alongside leagues like the CCIW, MAC and ASC in that second just-below-elite tier. Both the NJAC and MIAC have a historically dominant team and have had two other teams make the playoffs in recent years.
If you’re looking solely at this season, I think Bethel-St. John’s is comparable to Rowan-Cortland as a top two, and St. Olaf vs. Montclair State at three probably favors the MIAC a little bit. I thought the NJAC had good depth this year with West. Conn. and Kean and TCNJ all being competitive at times. How would they fare against Tommies and Gusties and Cobbers? Probably a pretty good split; feel free to crunch numbers on that.
I don’t think there’s anything to support the NJAC being a clearly superior league to the MIAC. You might be able to argue slightly, but it doesn’t seem like that would much factor into who gets the last at-large bid. Schedule strength certainly does, but Cortland and St. John’s each scheduled aggressively out of conference, even though all the teams didn’t end up having good seasons.
“Regardless, the system in place allows for 25 automatic qualifiers, and 7 at large bids.”
That would be 21 automatic bids and four bids for Pool Bs. There is no way for a Pool B team to “clinch” a bid before selection Sunday, and in case of a really good year in Pool B, some of those teams could spill over into the at-large pool and take one or more of the seven, although we have yet to seen it happen.
Although point taken. If you fail to win your conference, you leave yourself at the mercy of the selection committee, who has to apply the criteria to determine the seven at-large teams. You also become dependent on the success and failures of others. The at-large field was weak last year and had room for a two-loss bunch of Red Dragons. This year it had no room for a one-loss team. Them’s the breaks.
As I stated, I think a 9-1 team with an OT loss to an AQ should always get into the playoffs, but given the strength of the field this year, two one-loss teams were getting left out either way. Cortland and Franklin ended up being the two, and Wartburg eliminated itself by losing in OT to Dubuque yesterday.
I also agree that Cortland was severely limited by its QB situation and may not have gone far anyway, but they had a very legitimate defense and could have been a great challenge in the show.
I voted for them and Baldwin-Wallace in the teens on my final ballot.
November 13th, 2006 at 12:21 am
dutchman89…
I agree with your assessment. I don’t recall that any NEFC team has won a first round game, hence the frustration of fans of all bubble teams out there. Perhaps this is the year the option works for SC, or not. Doesn’t matter, as no one expected much from them at the start of the season in the E8. They were picked to finish behind SJF and IC
November 13th, 2006 at 12:28 am
While I’m on a roll, I’ll hit the rest of the brackets.
Lets start in the North. To CapWhenWeWereNobody. I’m going to step out on a limb here, except mine is not as weak as yours. Let’s skip all the early stuff, and get right to the title - Mount Union.
South.
Wesley will take care of Dickinson
Carnegie Mellon continues to have its doubters after beating unheralded Millsaps, another automatic qualifier with 3 unimpressive losses on its resume.
Wesley/CMU. Sorry Tartans - its brawn over brains in this one. Nice season, but home field carries the Wolverines in this one.
CNU/WJU - WJU. The presidents stubbed their toe in the opener, but have seemed to hit their stride. The long trip will not affect them, and they move on. Plus, the USAC hasn’t made any noise in the NCAA’s since Chris Warren played at Ferrum.
HS v. MHB. Texas draw. Rematch’s are tough. Its too bad it has to happen in Round 1. Bucking conventional wisdom, I’ll take the visitors. I must admit, I admire both these clubs for their strong non-conference scheduling. H-S win over Linfield (at home) is more impressive than MHB’s close loss to UWW (at home). In the end, HS exacts revenge.
HS v. WJU. While some President’s do well in Texas, the WJU Presidents do not. HS takes this game in a thriller.
Wesley v. HS. Lots of travel for HS. But flying is better than driving. This game is a toss up. In the end, I think HS pulls the mild upset.
November 13th, 2006 at 12:58 am
D3Keith
1. Decisiveness of a victory does matter. An OT loss to an AQ (and perennial power) on the road is better than a two touchdown loss, at home, to an infrequent playoff interloper. Plus, late season wins/losses should count for something.
2. Lycoming has neither (i) the credentials this season, nor (ii) comparable playoff history success, nor (iii) comparable legend on the field. So this point borders on the ridiculous. While Coach Girardi is certainly a D-III legend in his own right, Coach Gagliardi is beyond compare in wins, and succeeds with an unconventional approach.
3. As for comparable conferences, you make a fair point. Given the breadth of D III football, the pendulum swings among the conferences from year to year make it difficult to rate them. Clearly an East Coast bias on that call. My bad.
On balance, I still submit that Cortland’s rivalry win v. Ithaca, the win over Montclair State (who, incidentally beat Rowan, I AA Iona, Salisbury, and lost to Springfield), edges the Johnnies, whose only quality win remains St. Olaf. And yes, I think the selection committee did take into account St. John’s strong showings in past playoffs and the reputation of its coach. While not official criteria in the selection process, its hard to imagine a committee comprised of individuals who are unaware of these facts. That’s just my opinion.
No need for another long winded reply.
November 13th, 2006 at 1:09 am
I’m not sure you get to dictate the nature of replies, but so as not to offend you, I’ll keep mine short.
“1. Decisiveness of a victory does matter.”
Not to the NCAA. Read that in the criteria somewhere? It ain’t there. Doesn’t matter what you think measures a team, if it’s not in the criteria, it isn’t being considered.
“2. Lycoming”
Way to take a hypothetical exaggeration for effect and totally miss the point.
End.
November 13th, 2006 at 1:22 am
“The rest of the brackets, save the Texas fiasco, are pretty much what everybody expected.”
I always expect a Texas fiasco.
November 13th, 2006 at 1:33 am
lol
November 13th, 2006 at 1:40 am
Dutchman89,
I am not good at giving up the last word. Plus, how you gonna be long-winded and tell me not to be? If you want to skip it, be my guest, but for the passive observers in the crowd:
dutchman89 Says:
“1. Decisiveness of a victory does matter.”
dutchman89 Says:
“2. Lycoming has neither (i) the credentials this season, nor (ii) comparable playoff history success, nor (iii) comparable legend on the field. So this point borders on the ridiculous. While Coach Girardi is certainly a D-III legend in his own right … “
dutchman89 Says:
“3. As for comparable conferences, you make a fair point. Given the breadth of D III football, the pendulum swings among the conferences from year to year make it difficult to rate them. Clearly an East Coast bias on that call. My bad.”
dutchman89 says:
“On balance, I still submit that Cortland’s rivalry win v. Ithaca, the win over Montclair State (who, incidentally beat Rowan, I AA Iona, Salisbury, and lost to Springfield), edges the Johnnies, whose only quality win remains St. Olaf. And yes, I think the selection committee did take into account St. John’s strong showings in past playoffs and the reputation of its coach. While not official criteria in the selection process, its hard to imagine a committee comprised of individuals who are unaware of these facts. That’s just my opinion.”
November 13th, 2006 at 4:10 am
I think non-regional games SHOULD be considered in the future. the two WIAC schools both had huge non-regional wins: UW-Whitewater over MHB and UW-Lax over D-IAA South Dakota State 17-3. Both of those wins were huge for the program. MHB is the #5 team in the country and SDSU is undefeated in their conference. Those wins show the true power those teams have. Regional games should have higher priority, but if it comes down to it, a non-regional win over a team like MHB or SDSU is better than a win over an unranked regional team
November 13th, 2006 at 7:02 am
Pat:
You yourself said, prior to going to see Cortland play in mid-season, that you thought they were underestimated, and then after they won the game you saw you proclaimed that they they were “officially the best team you had seen this year”.
Well the only thing that happened to the “best team….this year” was a loss to Rowan in OT. After all they were still ranked higher in the d3.com poll than several of the other at large East teams?
I am not secon-guessing the bracket as it followed its system and inevitably the last guy out has a gripe, however what I do not and cannot understand is the apparrent ease with which the #15 team in the country gets left out even though there are still teams in Cortland’s own region that were ranked lower…and before you blast me….I know that the d3.com poll is not the criteria for getting in….but then maybe the poll should be:
d3.dontlookatmeCortlandfansandthinkthatyouregoodenoughtogetinat#15inthewholefreakincountrypoll.com
Union guy above:
Fisher has shown a little more than “flashes of brilliance” on offense and defense this year.
They have 4 shutouts I believe and only two teams have scored more than 20…Springfield and Brockport
On offense no one has stopped them….just got outscored by Springfield (and crushed)
November 13th, 2006 at 7:58 am
D3Keith
I think the “thought out reasoning” in my prior posts was self evident. It relies on apremise that some degree of subjectivity is part of the Pool C decisionmaking progress. If the process is purely objective, then I simply do not know all of the criteria.
I don’t think there is any conspiracy at play here.
As far as UW LaCrosse, it was a mid season loss to the #2 in the country. If subjectivity comes in to the decisionmaking, then a late season loss should weigh more heavily against a Pool C contender. I guess I’m simply borrowing logic from our flawed D IA polling system.
Look, in the mid-90’s, when regional committees set the 16 team field, there were several years where Cortland received bids, or its conference brethren received bids, against apparently equal or more worthy clubs in the East did not. At the time, the regional selection committee head was the Cortland AD.
My point is, the process today is as good as it gets. Its never going to be without some controversy, especially when a clearly deserving team stays home while automatic qualifiers get in with 2 and 3 loss seasons. But, as you say, them’s the breaks.
November 13th, 2006 at 8:04 am
SJFF82
Maybe “flashes of brilliance” should be replaced with “flashes of mediocrity”. We know both clubs have the tools to put up some points. They’ve also both been exposed by Springfield’s running attack. I anticipate a high scoring affair, with a close outcome decided by turnovers.
November 13th, 2006 at 8:25 am
The system aint perfect. Cortland fans are aggrieved and probably rightly so. The LL seems to garner little respect among the respondents. Union’s outing on Saturday was their worst showing of the season. Next week’s SJF game should be a good one, hopefully with the banner of the LL flying high afterwards.
November 13th, 2006 at 9:05 am
Just a comment on the St. John’s issue. Does everyone forget they have been the #3 ranked team in the country all year? I never heard anyone complain that their ranking was not deserved. I will have to do my homework but what was the highest ranking that Cortland attained this year?
St. John’s is still the “co-champion” of the MIAC too. Is Cortland? (More homework)
The auto bid went to Behtel because of the head to head. Are you suggesting the #3 team in the country should get bounced with one loss?
Nobody has mentioned Capital….they were #4 until the loss and they aren’t even a co-conference champ and they got in. Was that unfair?
Win the league and (borrowing from the NWC with their permission)
LEAVE NO DOUBT.
November 13th, 2006 at 9:30 am
Raiderguy
You’re absolutely right. Debating this point is a fruitless exercise.
As far as rankings go, there is not doubt that, until a team (or teams) from the East, beside Rowan, consistently advance to semi finals and finals, and bring home some championship hardware, they will always be relegated to the middle of the top 25 rankings. Most of the teams that hover in the top 10, at some point over the past several years, have challenged or beaten Mount Union, and have consistently beaten East teams in the playoffs. As a result, their rankings reflect a top 10 position.
SJF, Union and Hobart represent upstate NY in this year’s tournament. That’s more than adequate representation for the region. If any are to advance, it will somehow be connected with unseating Rowan. They will then have to achieve in the final four. Unless and until it happens, they will not be considered for the top spots in the polls.
November 13th, 2006 at 9:57 am
The QOW index is useless. For an alternative index try the Massey Ratings.
http://www.masseyratings.com/
I think the Massey Ratings can offer additional criteria to help make picks, or confuse your instincts. They, of course, have the WIAC as the #1 conference.
November 13th, 2006 at 9:59 am
Final Four prediction, and then some:
UW Whitewater
Mount Union
Mary Hardin-Baylor
Springfield
UW Whitewater wins it all!
November 13th, 2006 at 10:02 am
Except for Mount Union, its a crapshoot to the final four.
November 13th, 2006 at 10:05 am
Great point dutchman89! But you gotta feel for Cortland going 9-1 with an overtime loss to Rowan and not getting in!
How about that trip for Hobart down to South NJ to face Rowan, doesn’t sound like an easy trip!
But then again Hobart has been playing with lots of heart and on the edge all year, with the exception of their Union loss!
Lets hope one of the upsatate teams can catch some fire!
November 13th, 2006 at 10:07 am
Why on Earth is Linfield still ranked?! They have only beaten one team with a winning record! The others they beat have weak records.
They are good, but I bet Baldwin-Wallace would rip them to shreds, or any number of teams not in the top 25.
They could not win a big game all year! Please leave them out of the final poll. They did not earn it this year. I respect them, but give it to someone that earned it.
November 13th, 2006 at 10:08 am
Pridefan & Pat,
You are permitted to dress 52 players in uniform for all post-season games. However, each team gets 20 sideline credentials to be distributed by the head coach. The 20 includes any coaches that are on the sideline, but does not include coaches in the box. It also includes any trainers, equipment people, etc. If a coach wanted to have 20 coaches he could certainly do that. It just would not leave room for anyone else.
November 13th, 2006 at 10:17 am
Leave it to the voice of the team to temper the reaction of Cortland fans because hey didn’t make it…We all know that there are strict NCAA rules and critieria for selections…but is it possible that the committee took a look at our QB situation and snubbed us ? Let’s face it, with abolutely no disrepect intended to those left standing at all, would you gamble on a 4th string quarterback giving a quality team a good game on the road ? I wouldn’t. The postseason is a the NCAA’s biggest chance to showcase their best…right now the Red Dragons are short at a key position…on paper we loook thin…and that’s what the committee sees, not what I saw in that true freshman who played his heart out and led his team to a win in relief. It’s a shame…I feel for them…but what can we do, except go out with a win in an ECAC bowl game now ? Go Dragons !!
November 13th, 2006 at 10:25 am
I don’t think Cortland State was snubbed because of the QB situation - they better not have.
I personally think Cortland State should be in regardless of who is playing QB. A team is more than a QB.
The soon to be National Champion UW Whitewater lost a prized running back, and they still jammed.
I wish money was not an issue, then 32 teams could be picked regardless of where they are from. The 32 best.
November 13th, 2006 at 10:29 am
Dlippiel -
Thanks for not hammering our Texas Cortland fan. I’m one of those Cortland fans who thinks highly of the LL and, especially the E8. As strong as I feel the NJAC is, the LL is a high quality conference in my opinion. I remember what Union did in the 1989 playoffs. That is still one of the best upstate teams I have ever seen. The E8 this season was the monster conference in Eastern Region in 2006. No fewer than 4 playoff contenders - pretty impressive.
I feel Cortland was better than Hobart this season, but since they didn’t play (not counting a meaningless scrimmage) there really is no way to say. Those are the breaks. I know it will never happen, but a regular season meeting once in a while would sure help to sort these things out.
What the heck though. I seriously doubt Cortland, Union, nor Hobart was going to beat Mt Union in the playoffs.
As I told a couple Cortland fans I have talked to the last 24 hours…there could be worse things than to have your final memory of 2006 be an OT victory over Ithaca in front of 10,000 fans. We’ll be interested in the ECAC pairings this afternoon…
Well that is enough for me on Cortland’s side of things. I am going to crunch some numbers on my computer rating system and offer some thoughts on the brackets later…
November 13th, 2006 at 10:33 am
reddragonsplaybyplay,
A D3 veteran like you knows better than to propose that the “4th string QB” is the reason that Cortland did not make it.
That is preposterous. There were sufficient criteria to evaluate Cortland State’s credentials for the NCAA playoffs. To lay this at the feet of a hard-working 4th string QB, who would leave it all on the field, is unjust to that player. The player should not have it initmated that he is the reason that the Red Dragons are not in the playoffs.
The committee did its work. With the criteria that they have available, and the transparency that they have built into the process, it should come as no surprise that Cortland would fall just short of a bid. In fact, it is probably Bethel’s win over SJU that took your Pool C bid. the Royals knew it was win or stay home and they won!
Your alluding to any suspected future deficiencies in a player is not fair to any member of the Red Dragon team!
November 13th, 2006 at 10:40 am
Snickers:
UWW/UMHB is a regional game this year.
November 13th, 2006 at 11:20 am
Raiderguy,
Having watched the Cortland team mature over the past couple years, I had them on my ballet from week one. I really felt that they were a semi-final calabur club. I started them at #12 and as high as #6 later in the season. I think it is the regional voter that will initially bring out a club, then other regional voters take notice ala Whitworth for example this year. Cortland rose to #12 in d3football.com’s top 25 in week nine.
I saw little difference in the quality of defense between Cortland and Rowan. The Profs are essentially the same defense from 2005. Unfortunately, Cortland suffered a similar fate in 2006, losing not only the number one (at West Conn) but the number two quarterback (at Rowan).
Then Cortland rebounded by beating Ithaca in front 13,000 with the #4 QB. While I can’t say who should be left out given the current selection criteria, I am a little dismayed that the score a team loses by and the stakes of said loss doesn’t matter (a 14-7 OT loss to Rowan for the NJAC title).
If the NJAC can put out two consistent performers, it will be likely that they’ll start getting two bids. Cortland was in last year and just out this year. The NJAC needs to produce two more playoff contenders in 2007, then the conference might be considered over the Liberty League and E8.
November 13th, 2006 at 11:22 am
ballot…. sp
November 13th, 2006 at 11:46 am
LOL. Don’t knock it. Look what it did for Lynn Swan.
November 13th, 2006 at 12:11 pm
JTW,
calabur?…?
November 13th, 2006 at 12:55 pm
oops… ever since spell check my skills in that area have diminished. Maybe I’ll type everything in Word first.
November 13th, 2006 at 12:57 pm
As any Cortland Grad would be, I am completely crushed with the snub. The debate has been an ongoing topic among the NJAC, LL, and the E-8, but that is not the issue. Each conference plays solid football, and has its share of quality teams. The issue is that we are looking at a bunch of 1 loss teams. Cortand, Hobart, SJF, and Springfeild with 9 win, all obviously have qaulity victorys. So, all we can really do is compare losses, right? Cortland is snubbed for an OT loss on the road to perannual power house Rowan (down year or not). Both Hobart and St. John Fisher lose decisively at home to conference rivals. You have to win your big games at home, how do you make the playoffs other wise. And for what its worth Cortland continues to win games without key players, proving the strength, and their worth as a playoff team.
November 13th, 2006 at 1:07 pm
How good is Wahington & Lee I don’t know much about them?
Does anyone think Cortland belongs in over them?
I can’t compare the two I didn’t see Washington & Lee play!
November 13th, 2006 at 1:11 pm
Doesn’t matter. Washington and Lee got an automatic bid!!
Geez, people, come on. Look at our projections — every team with an (A) next to its name got an automatic bid.
http://www.d3football.com/dailydose/?p=270
November 13th, 2006 at 1:15 pm
If Raiderguy feels SJU wasn’t overranked I feel better. I know he’s seen them plenty (and, of course, has a pretty good purple pedigree.)
I feel a bit for Cortland because in some ways they might have had an easier chance getting out of the East bracket than SJU does out of a tougher West. Central is a very solid program. Courtland probably wouldn’t have had to play a top 10 program until the second round — if unlike last season — it wins a post-season game.
But we can batter regional things, but the real issue is comes down to the commitment to AQs.
Personally, I think they are needed and part of the d3 mission. And I know the NCAA wouldn’t likely budge either.
But should the NAIA continue to erode, ala the NWC move, and the ranks of d3 hit a growth spurt, perhaps someone would suggest a modest proposal to handle the influx. Why reward conferences that are one-and-done? If a conference can’t win a playoff game in four or five years as an AQ, then throw its champ into Pool C, unless they are unbeaten.
That way you could accomodate more deserving teams without expanding the bracket — and without extending the season.
I’m sure there are problems, such as the tiny North league that gets put up against MUC every year, and brighter minds will find more issues. But if the NAIA, which seems shakier by the season, sends a surge of teams this way, we’ll have even more Cortland situations.
This probably isn’t the answer and I’m not all that comfortable with it, but I thought I’d fly it up there … fire away, please.
November 13th, 2006 at 1:15 pm
My bad! Not paying attention today!
November 13th, 2006 at 1:19 pm
Good post.
Cortland has a legitimate beef and should be in the playoffs for all the reasons mentioned in previous posts. The problem might be that there are too many automatic bids. Or maybe it was Cortland’s non-league schedule. Wins over Morrisville and Brockport, two teams that failed to get a win over any team above .500, had to hurt them in the end. The win over Ithaca just wasn’t enough. If the NJAC doesn’t improve its bottom teams, Cortland is going to have to schedule more teams like Alfred, St John Fisher and Hobart if they want an At-large bid. Buff State and Brockport have been strong programs in the past, and may rebound in the next couple of years. If they do, wins over these teams would likely get the Red Dragons in the tournament.
Do some of these conferences really deserve a guaranteed spot for their champion? Should there be more At-large selections? That would also leave a lot of room for second guessing by those who just miss.
I’ve said before that I don’t think the NJAC is a strong conference. Rowan and Cortland are national powers and that will always keep them in the playoff hunt, but the bottom four in the NJAC don’t provide quality wins for the top two. The top four teams made the E8 the best conference in the east this year. I think the LL top four (Union, Hobart, Rochester, RPI) are very strong. Rowan and Cortland probably have a slight advantage over Union and Hobart, but the next four matchups favor the LL.
Pat and Keith had the field pegged because they understand how the selection process works and they did their homework. There is little subjectivity in the process and that’s what most people asked for.
November 13th, 2006 at 1:20 pm
Well said. that is the bottom line.
November 13th, 2006 at 1:29 pm
The Division III membership is looking at the NAIA influx already and potential overcrowding of the championship field is definitely one of the reasons why it’s being pondered.
Emolion, thanks, but I have to give credit to Gordon Mann, who you see blogging here regularly and is on the bracketology team.
November 13th, 2006 at 1:29 pm
As a geographically challenged Cortland alum in the home of perennial Big Ten whipping boy Minnesota, I appreciate the support for my alma mater, especially from dutchman, SeanGOP, and JTW. Nothing vs. Hobart, but can’t believe defenders bringing up LAST YEAR’s result to back up their argument–totally irrelevant to Cortland’s 2006 team. Also agree, as one close to the MIAC scene here, St. John’s got in on strength of past performance, which has indeed been impressive despite questionable strength of schedule. Finally, QB situation is irrelevant to playoff selection—I don’t care if they’re down to the waterboy starting–the team deserves better.
November 13th, 2006 at 1:39 pm
The NJAC may not be that strong this year, but Hobart sure had a tough time with bottom feeder William Patterson. Who cares if one leagues number 4 or 5 team is better than the other leagues 4 or 5. The LL has Worchester, Merchant M., and St Lawrence has been a joke for years. Montclair is a solid program, and if Buff State returns to form along with New Jersey we’ll be back to this league beating each other up and we’ll all have 2 or 3 losses, and that won’t get you in the playoffs either.
November 13th, 2006 at 1:39 pm
Interested to see RPI and Cortland square off in the ECACs (Rochester vs. Alfred is another great upstate match up as well!). Should be a good one!
November 13th, 2006 at 1:41 pm
Keith, I met you at the UMHB/UWW game last month and told you I read but don’t post. That has changed with the latest NCAA stupidity. You are missing the point about the South bracket. Believe me, all of us in Texas are well award of “cost containment” by the NCAA. Read Ralph Turner’s post earlier about how by using its own mapping program there could still have been one flight this weekend and probably LESS flights later. Plus EVERY OTHER BRACKET HAS PERFECT SEEDING MATCHUPS THIS WEEKEND. Ludicrous arrogant ignorance is no defense. We have meekly(relatively speaking) accepted this ridiculous “sub bracket” for years, and now there was a year to easily avoid a #2 vs. #3 south region matchup in the first round–AND A CONFERENCE REMATCH TO BOOT–and they don’t do it. INEXCUSABLE AND INDEFENSIBLE!
November 13th, 2006 at 1:51 pm
obviously I meant well aware not “well award” on recent post—and Texas fans definitely are well aware of NCAA D3 playoff mindset!
November 13th, 2006 at 2:05 pm
While I am complaining about the South bracket, why did W & L go east instead of Dickinson? Does that make sense on any level, especially geographically?
November 13th, 2006 at 2:07 pm
UW Whitewater will beat Mount Union in the Championship game… Who’s with me?
November 13th, 2006 at 2:10 pm
I don’t get why Cortland fans are mad at Hobart for not getting in!
Hobart is one tough football team with lots of heart. They had one bad game against top notch Union!
Cortland fans should be upset about not getting in…but Hobart has nothing to do with it! I’m not sure what a preseason scrimmage has to do with it!
November 13th, 2006 at 2:18 pm
JAFO is right - don’t blame Hobart for Cortland State not getting in. It can only be the blame of the football team not getting in and the selection committee. I think Cortland should have gotten in.
Anyway, Hobart is going to get beat by Rowan.
November 13th, 2006 at 2:20 pm
About what time should we expect the Pick’em to be available today? I can’t wait!
I am very glad d3f does the pick’em - it makes the playoffs better (especially if your team didn’t make it).
November 13th, 2006 at 2:28 pm
labart96 -
Were this weekend’s ECAC games announced or were you speculating on the matchups? Do you have a link to the announcement?
November 13th, 2006 at 2:28 pm
I don’t know when it will be available, probably late. I haven’t see our tech guy online at all today but he did promise it would be done.
November 13th, 2006 at 2:38 pm
SeanGOP: Which St. norbert game were you at this year??? Maybe I met you…
November 13th, 2006 at 2:41 pm
Thanks man!
November 13th, 2006 at 2:43 pm
SeanGOP: Did you see alot of St. Norbert games??? Who is their main offensive threat and are they big up front?? Do they still run that wishbone to death?? Give me a quick scouting report. I need some info.
November 13th, 2006 at 2:53 pm
umhbcrufan16, Re: W&L vs. Dickinson in the East
I can only speculate here, but I think this is probably as accurate as anything.
One basic tenet of drawing up a tournament is that if you are forced to move a team because the standard seeding process breaks one of your criteria, you move the lower seeded teams of those involved. Since W&L was probably ranked lower than Dickinson in the traditional South region, they got the “privilege” of being moved out of region. Since Lexington and Carlisle are both well within the 500 miles of Wilkes-Barre and Dover, the geographical limitations were not of primary consideration.
November 13th, 2006 at 2:58 pm
I’m alive. Starting on it right now. I don’t think it will take too long to put together this year.
November 13th, 2006 at 3:21 pm
Hey SeanGOP
Jumpin the gun for both teams aren’t you. Upsets do happen. UWW and Mt. Union can be upset.
November 13th, 2006 at 4:16 pm
will UWW have their tailback available for the playoffs?
November 13th, 2006 at 4:28 pm
SeanGOP,
I missed the part where the Raiders have already made it to Salem and “decided” to play WW again.
And “decided” that “OK, we won it last year so now it is your turn.”
If it happens I at least know it wasn’t because WW had the better team but simply a Mount Union accomodation.
November 13th, 2006 at 4:46 pm
To Ralph Turner first…I respectfully disagree with you…how else does a 9-1 team not make it ? I refuse to buy into the NJAC not being strong…I saw every team…at least once. We hope things like that don’t happen…but they do…sure there were many strong teams, but the Red Dargons were one of them and anyone who feels cheated, both inside and outside the team, has a right.
To seanGOP…Right on ! The quarterback is NOT the whole team…so why should the team have been cheated ?
Anyway…again no disrespect to those going…and MUCH respect to the Cortland guys who voted to go to the ECAC game before the jug game and aren’t backing out….good for them and go Sean Pratt !!!
November 13th, 2006 at 4:50 pm
Emolion -
The Brockport game is usually a monster opponent for Cortland. Brockport had an off year, so it really wasn’t Cortland’s fault. Morrisville is a fellow SUNY school looking to fill a schedule, and we accomodated because we were 1 game short. The belief is long term Morrisville will be very, very good. They are a multi-time champion in JUCO. In the interim they are building and not nearly as strong as they will be. This year it was an easy win for us. In the future? Probably a very tough game.
Cortland cannot simply schedule Fisher, Alfred, RPI, Hobart… Believe me. They have tried, and tried. For the most part private schools up here want nothing to do with the public schools when it comes to football. Ithaca is a noted exception as they will, and do, schedule anybody.
Fisher to their credit still plays Brockport out of conference, and also has a competitive game with Kings. I understand they are in the process of scheduling Mt Union(!!!!) too. Hobart plays Dickinson, F&M some years, and Alfred. RPI could use a schedule upgrade, since they play Utica, Becker, and Endicott out of conference. Those are 3 very weak teams and automatic wins for RPI most years. RPI missed out on a Pool C bid last year, and I wouldn’t be surprised if their strength of schedule played a role. If any of those teams needs Cortland on their schedule, it is RPI. But that is never going to happen.
So we have tried to get the upstate teams on Cortland’s schedule. Heck we tried to form a league with them, and then join the leagues they formed on their own. Needless to say they weren’t interested in Cortland, which is why we ended up in the New Jersey Athletic Conference. It is the same reason Brockport (and Buffalo State before them) ended up in the ACFC with Salisbury and Wesley. It was either that, or go back to playing D2 games with Southern Connecticut and Mansfield again as we did for many years.
November 13th, 2006 at 4:58 pm
And you won’t be able to play Mansfield much longer… Hit the papers here in P.A. last week that they may be dropping their football program soon
November 13th, 2006 at 5:02 pm
I understand and agree with all the reasons that Cortland should be in.Can someone explain why Hobart is I know a win is a win but there were many games they played where they didn’t so much find a way to win but there oponants a way to loose.Sometimes a dead horse needs to be beaten if it’s ever going to be fixed.PS hope I made you laugh Mr. D. Also note to Rowan if you want to beat Hobart just pass run or kick the ball.
November 13th, 2006 at 5:49 pm
Warrior,
I didn’t see any St. Norbert games this year. All I need to know is that they are from the Midwest Conference and UW Whitewater is from the WIAC. That tells me they are going to get thumped. I think St. Norbert could beat several of the teams in the playoffs this year, but got a bad luck first game. That is the deepest bracket out of the four - only 3 losses total! Noone can dispute that.
Jimjearsa,
Of course I’m jumping the gun - but I have to make a prediction to be in Pick ‘em!
Raiderguy,
Refer to the line written to Jimjearsa. Personally, I would love it if Mount Union lost in the first round - that way a CCIW team stand a better chance. I attended Augustana, and I would rather not have any team beat Augustana’s record of 4 straight National Championships. Mount Union poses the biggest threat for obvious reasons. I’m sorry I think your team is great.
November 13th, 2006 at 6:10 pm
Some really good posts here, I have enjoyed reading them all. The more I think of it the more I do feel for Cortland. Hey I have an idea and even a request. Cortland please take it to RPI in the ECAC GAME. I don’t care if it makes the LL look weak, yes I am a bitter Union fan after Saturdays loss. You really did deserve to be in the NCAA tourney and I am sorry things did not work out. Just take it all out on RPI and hammer them. Cam08 yes it made me laugh, thanks man, and I do happen to agree that Rowen will beat Hobart. I can’t wait for the Union/SJF game this week. I think it is going to be a great game. Also this will be a great matchup of two awsome backs (Arcidicano and Robinson). If Arcidicano’s ankle is good then it will be two of the better backs trying to help their teams to an NCAA victory. Both teams have many weapons on offense so it should be excitiing. Hey U defense, this is your opportunity to get back on top after last week. You showed tons of heart last week but to win this week you need to stop SJF early and often.
November 13th, 2006 at 6:26 pm
dutchman, it really doesnt matter whos running behind that line….whitewater is gonna win it all but even if i wasnt a johnnie fan…they will play whitewater and lose by a touchdown…the bethel lost couldnt of come at a better time…they will use it for motivation and beat central by 3 touchdowns…as long as kofead plays good
November 13th, 2006 at 6:27 pm
I do believe Union could go far in post season some of the best ball running and control I saw in the LLdon’t know what happen at RPI didn’t catch that game.Look Mr. D a positive post, I am really progressing
November 13th, 2006 at 6:54 pm
Who is the favorite in the first round match-ups in the East bracket? Who does everyone see coming out of this region? I like Wilkes, Rowan, SJF, Springfield—all the higher seeds, of course, I think Rowan is the favorite to come out of the bracket, on paper, but luckily the games aren’t on paper..Thoughts???
November 13th, 2006 at 7:29 pm
What happened with the Union/RPI game was that RPI finally played like the team they should have been all season. The offensive line shut down the tough Union d-line and Robertson came through in the clutch, hitting his recievers when he needed to. RPI’s d-line and lb’s also played a terriffic game. Union’s o-line could not get a push up front. I am excited for the Union/SJF game. I feel that Union can win this game if they don’t play like they did against RPI. lol. I do sympathize with Cortland. I feel that they probably would have been the East representative in the semifinals if they were in, yet they get punished for an overtime loss. This stuff happens when there are limited spaces for conference runner-ups.
November 13th, 2006 at 7:53 pm
ok. who wants to talk a little smack? I sense a little holdback right now. c’mon. we need to give our respective troops some incentive. and please, no boy scout reply. this can be accomplished without degenerating into a low brow free for all. by the way, as a rule, the defending champss (mount union) is exempt from smack in round 1.
d3keith, pcole. ryancoleman:
please indulge a little here.
who wants at it first?
November 13th, 2006 at 8:02 pm
sents57
saw part of the UC/RPI game on webcast. the mud certainly didn’t help the dutchmen from getting any traction. blanche made several big catches. 3 untimely picks (could’ve easily been 5).
field won’t matter at SJF. expecting a shootout.
not to take away anythng from RPI, since they playe on the same field.
November 13th, 2006 at 8:06 pm
Cortland fans, I have one other thought about the dynamics in the Selection committee as they went down the list
Up first–
1) North-Capital/Wheaton/Franklin West UW-LC/SJU/Linfield South HSU/Trinity East SJF/Hobart/Cortland — Capital in as N#2; move up Wheaton
2) North-Wheaton/Franklin West UW-LC/SJU/Linfield South HSU/Trinity East SJF/Hobart/Cortland — HSU in as S#3 (They beat UW-SP as badly or worse than UW-W and UW-LC did.) Move up Trinity
3) North-Wheaton/Franklin West UW-LC/SJU/Linfeld South Trinity East SJF/Hobart/Cortland — UW-LC in as W#3. Move up SJU
4) North-Wheaton/Franklin West SJU/Linfield South Trinity East SJF/Hobart/Cortland — SJF in as E#3. Move up Hobart
5) North-Wheaton/Franklin West SJU/Linfield South Trinity East Hobart/Cortland — Wheaton in as N#4. Move up Franklin.
6) North-Franklin West SJU/Linfield South Trinity East Hobart/Cortland — Hobart in as E#5. Move up Cortland.
7) North-Franklin West SJU/Linfield South Trinity East Cortland — SJU in as W#7.
If you look at that table, SJU was the next best pick from the West in Round #4, #5, #6 and #7. That is a long time to be asking the question “Is SJU the next best team on the table?”
As that question was being asked, SJF came off! Then Wheaton came off! And then Hobart came off! That certainly must have raised some genuine questions as to which was the next best team left on the table for the 7th pick. I can imagine the committee’s dynamics to see 2 East Region teams and 1 North Region team coming off while SJU was still on the table. Trinity, or whoever it was, was just too weak in the next South position.
Cortland, good luck in the ECAC.
November 13th, 2006 at 8:25 pm
Or if UW-LC came off 2nd, then SJU moved up and was there in the 3rd round!!!
HSU comes off in the 3rd round, but SJU is lurking as the next best team from the West!
Talking about a team looming like a vulture over the table! How do you not question yourself saying that SJU is not good enough to come off after the second round, as #3 or #4 or #5 or #6 or #7?
November 13th, 2006 at 8:52 pm
Ralph Turner,
I know you laid it out for us angered Cortland fans, but its is still not clear as to why Hobarts 9-1 or St John Fishers 9-1 is stronger than Cortlands 9-1?
November 13th, 2006 at 9:35 pm
dutchman89
I definetly feel that the conditions of the field favored RPI. I watched the game from field level, so I knew how terrible the field was. RPI practices on a field that has similar conditions to ‘86 Field right now and they also play on a grass field (obviously), so they were used to the mud. Union is a turf team, so they aren’t as used to playing in those conditions. And yes, the turnovers killed Union. There could easily have been 8 or 9 picks, but many were dropped by the safties. I am also expecting a shootout with Fisher, though both teams do have very tough defenses. Union will be on turf again, so their offense will probably have a better game than they did this past weekend. I would definetly love to catch that game, but I probably will travel to Cortland to watch my Engineers.
November 13th, 2006 at 9:38 pm
I’ve crunched the numbers on my computer rating system and I’m ready to post its projections for the opening round of the bracket. For those interested, it is an iterative based system somewhat like the LazIndex. On average it accurately predicts games at about a 77%-80% clip most weeks. The playoffs are always tougher because the teams are more closely matched than during the regular season.
Wilkes Bracket-
Wilkes over Wash & Lee
Rowan over Hobart - very close game, watchout Rowan
SJ Fisher over Union
Springfield over Curry
Mt Union Bracket-
Mt Union over Hope
Wheaton over Mt St Joseph
North Central over Concordia, Wis
Capital over Wittenberg
Wesley Bracket-
Wesley over Dickinson
Millsaps over Carnegie-Mellon
Washington & Jefferson over Christopher Newport
Hardin-Simmons over Mary-Hardin Baylor
UW-Whitewater Bracket-
UW-Whitewater over St Norbert
UW-Lacrosse over Bethel
Whitworth over Occidental
Central over St John’s
Incidentally my rating system has Hardin-Simmons as the 3rd best team in the country, with UMHB as the 5th best team. So this 1st round matchup is a major hose job.
November 13th, 2006 at 9:50 pm
bethel might lose but watch out uw lacrosse…i watched the st.john bethel game and that was a good game…sju played the worst they could i ever seen them play in the past 6 years and still almost won if lofboom did trip at the 10 yard line when no one was in 10 yards of him…..
November 14th, 2006 at 12:14 am
Let’s go UWL!! Since Whitewater handed it to them, they have been playing quite well. I’d love to see a UWL and UWW rematch in round 2.
I don’t know anything about Cortland, but come on folks, it is time to move on.
Go Eagles!
November 14th, 2006 at 12:16 am
umhbcrufan16,
I am not missing the point about Texas. It’s wrong. I’m just not outraged anymore because this happens every year in Texas on the West Coast. If it would really please you, I’m sure I could go back to some other year when you guys got screwed and re-post it and it would still apply.
ChuggerD99 almost had it nailed. Cortland not getting in is not an endorsement of the E8 or LL over the NJAC. It’s simply a case of having several deserving teams, in this case nine for seven spots. If Cortland and Franklin hadn’t been left out, someone like UW-La Crosse or St. John’s or St. John Fisher or Hardin-Simmons — all of whom were ranked and lost only to their conference champion — would have been left out and had the same argument.
In that situation, the committee can’t win. Inevitably, as someone above mentioned, the 33rd and 34th teams will have beef.
Be glad this isn’t ‘04, when we would have had nine worthy teams for three spots, and 29 and 30 would have had beef.
Be glad this isn’t ‘98, where in the West, one of the five unbeaten conference champs could have missed the field — forget about Bethel or St. John’s.
Cortland,
I don’t like any rating system that spits out a result that doesn’t jive with h2h results.
In voting this year, until CNU lost to N.C. Wesleyan, I was able to keep all my head-to-head top 25 teams in order (i.e. Rowan-CNU-UMHB). Later, it was impossible to contain the Ithaca-Springfield-Union-Alfred-Hobart-SJF craziness.
As far as the predictions your system made, they look good for the most part. I see a few I disagree with, and I’ll be writing about that later in the week. But there really aren’t a whole lot of toss-ups in the first round. Or rather, games without a clear favorite. Any of them could end up being toss-ups. That’s the fun of the playoffs.
Dutchman89, I feel your early post from this morning. As for the smack talk one, I’m sure they’re well underway on Post Patterns. That’s where I’d keep it.
November 14th, 2006 at 1:34 am
Who do ya’ll thinks going to win……..HSU or UMHB? What do you think?
November 14th, 2006 at 7:52 am
Keith -
You answered your own question. H2H is important, but it isn’t all encompassing. For instance the mess that was E8 - basically unsolveable by simple ELO type ranking methods.
When developing the system I actually researched how often teams which beat their opponent by say 1-4 points, or 40 to 50 points, etc, actually ended up ahead of that opponent in their conference standings at year’s end.
What I found was a victory of 17+ points almost always means the winning team was “better” over the course of the season. Like 98% of the time.
Furthermore a victory of 50 points, 60 points, and so on, became meaningless. Once a team wins by about 4 touchdowns, there is virtually no difference in the probability they are beter than their opponent than had they won by an even larger margin. So blowouts are muted.
However a victory of a touchdown or less only held up only about 65% of the time.
So in other words the “wrong team” wins almost 1 of every 3 games. We can come up with potential reasons why it happened. A key injury for one game. A tough road loss. Too much partying the night before the game. Bad luck, even bad officiating. The system doesn’t care. It just knows close games have to be put in their proper perspective. Otherwise you end up ranking William Paterson ahead of Rowan in 2005.
What Laz does, and my system does, is iterate through every score of every game. The overall strength of a team is the result of all games, and takes into account the potential that a close win or a close loss may have been an upset.
November 14th, 2006 at 8:37 am
Some factoids from the computer ratings based on all regular season games -
Top 3 teams
1. UW-Whitewater
2. Mount Union
3. Hardin-Simmons (I know you disagree with this one Keith)
Weakest Team in the Country - Principia
Weakest Team in the Playoffs - Curry (ranked #108)
Strongest Team out of the Playoffs - Cortland (ranked #12)
The Great East Hope for 2006 - St John Fisher. Overwhelming except for the Springfield game. Has a real chance to make a national run.
Where does first year Morrisville rank? - #175, roughly even with Utica and Maine Maritime.
Was Bethel really better than St John’s? - Yes, but only by about 2 points
November 14th, 2006 at 9:57 am
Cortland Football,
I am facinated with your computer rankings. I hope you are wrong about Hardin-Simmons - I have them getting beat by Mary Hardin-Baylor. I have MHB going to the final 4.
You are right about the hose job - those two should not be playing each other in the first round. That is a slap in the face to the whole conference.
Where do my Augustana Vikings end up in your rankings? And how about Linfield (who I don’t think should be ranked with three losses)?
Thanks man.
November 14th, 2006 at 9:57 am
Cortlandfootball
Good point about the lack of play between private and public schools upstate. RPI used to play Brockport, but that series ended in the 90’s. I don’t think that Union has played a state school since Albany moved up.
I believe upstate NY Division III football is as good as you get anywhere. It is too bad that three of the state university programs had such a problem getting games that they had to join leagues out of the area to fill their schedules. It would be nice to see more of the upstate teams play one another during the season. Look at the poll below and you will see that the coaches upstate believe that their best team is Cortland.
http://campus.hws.edu/upstate/
November 14th, 2006 at 11:33 am
CortlandFootball,
My computer tends to be in agreement for the most part.
1. Mt Union
2. UW-Whitewater
3. St. John Fisher
7. Hardin-Simmons
8. Mary Hardin-Baylor (0.27 points separate these two)
10. Cortland St (Strongest Out)
111. Hope (Weakest In)
183. Morrisville St
223. Principia
Bethel is better than St John’s by 0.39 points.
For perspective, Mt Union is 5 points above UW-W, who is 11 above SJF. The standard error is 1.40.
HSU/UMHB is the only first round game that my computer suggests an upset over the NCAA seeds. Of course, it doesn’t take into account home-fields. Since the game is at UMHB, one would think they have a slight advantage.
November 14th, 2006 at 11:55 am
So we knew going into Sunday that two 1-loss teams were going to be left out. Why is this? Of the nine conference runners-up involved in this dilemma, four of them lost to teams with 2 losses and three more lost to teams with one loss. If any of these seven games had gone the other way, the team currently with the AQ would most likely be sitting at home this weekend, freeing up an extra Pool C spot for Cortland or Franklin (who themselves are in this list of seven games).
Too many teams just didn’t take care of business when they had the chance to win the AQ. Moral of the story: Don’t put yourself at the mercy of the selection committee.
November 14th, 2006 at 11:57 am
Altor -
Great to see someone else having fun creating computer ratings! I have Fisher #4 in the country. It is interesting both of our systems concur on their strength.
SeanGOP -
I have Linfield ranked #24 in the country. Not their best team the last few years, but certainly still strong enough to win a lot of games against a brutal schedule.
I noticed I have Augustana near the bottom of the top 50. I’m not sure I agree with that. They seem to be hurt by North Central, who my system doesn’t have a lot of respect for at #27. If North Central proves the system wrong and whips somebody in the playoffs, it will lift Augustana too.
November 14th, 2006 at 12:05 pm
CortlandFootball is certainly aware of my longstanding feelings re public vs. private scheduling problems in football. Doc Weber, highly regarded CState longtime AD of yesteryear, was at the point 50 years ago in attempting to formulate a D3 state league ….to no avail. Just how ridiculous has it gotten? Not long ago CState and Alfred had matching open dates. A no go. BUT the pair did have a preseason scrimmage, mainly because erstwhile Corts coach Dave Murray was (is) piloting Saxons’ ship. As for Hobart, it was due to open CState schedule in early 80s when it became known Cortland was considering dropping football. Hobart scrambled successfully to replace the Cortland game. Don’t believe they’ve played since then in regular season. A shame NYers can’t get along. What a conference it would be!
Also, as was written in Monday’s Cortland Standard, CState coach Dan MacNeill once served on D3 football committee and indicated it (as apparently now) had a problem ranking teams based on win index n