Looking ahead to Week 14: Quarterfinal Week
Nov
2006
It’s that time again — probably way past it. When we have 264 comments and counting on last week’s Game Day Updates blog post, it’s time to start looking ahead.
The 32-team field has been drawn (Nov. 12) and quartered (through last weekend). Here we have eight teams remaining and four quarterfinal matchups — perhaps the best foursome in recent memory, if I didn’t make that completely clear in Around the Nation. I think we could see four single-digit margins of victory. And even though Pat Coleman and I provide this week’s expected final scores, and they don’t all fall in the single-digit range, we both know we’re looking at eight teams matched against opponents they can beat, should they put it all together Saturday.
It’s our third consecutive week of predicting playoff scores, and we do so not so much to flaunt our knowledge or embarass ourselves, but just to provide an idea of what’s expected to happen, so you’ll know you’re seeing history in the making should the results go off course. Pat has taken the wrong winner in just three of the 24 games so far, while I rebounded after a rough opening week to go 7-1 last week. Pat and I both missed one of the East bracket games and correctly hit the winners in the others.
Why is that relevant? Because our scores — done separately, without consulting each other — are again very similar. That may not speak much to what will happen, but it does paint a clear picture of what’s expected.
Wesley (South) Bracket quarterfinal in Dover, Del.:
Pat: Mary Hardin-Baylor 27, Wesley 23
Keith: Mary Hardin-Baylor 29, Wesley 28
Mount Union (North) Bracket quarterfinal in Alliance, Ohio:
Pat: Mount Union 42, Capital 21
Keith: Mount Union 35, Capital 23
Wilkes (East) Bracket quarterfinal in Pittsford, N.Y:
Pat: Rowan 20, St. John Fisher 17
Keith: Rowan 23, St. John Fisher 21
UW-Whitewater (West) Bracket quarterfinal in Whitewater, Wis.:
Pat: UW-Whitewater 31, St. John’s 20
Keith: UW-Whitewater 28, St. John’s 17
If Pat and I are wrong, and all four games are decided by a touchdown our less, that would be a first in the eight years of expanded playoffs. I looked back at the seven previous 28- and 32-team brackets, and found that all but three quarterfinal games were decided by seven points or fewer (12 games) or 25 points or more (13 games). No season has featured two margins like Pat and I are predicting in Alliance and Whitewater, but three (’02, ‘03 and ‘05) have featured three games decided by a TD or less.
It makes sense, as the early rounds have always seemed to separate the “playoff teams” from the “Stagg Bowl contenders.”
The road to Salem continues Saturday.
Feel free to comment on our picks or make your own below.
November 30th, 2006 at 7:55 pm
SJF 31 Rowan 20
November 30th, 2006 at 8:11 pm
Now, commenting as just a regular guy, and not the ‘official lead item to the blog writer,’ let me say that I’ll have more respect for the criticisms of anyone who doesn’t like my expected scores if they also share their expected scores here.
Obviously the fans of St. John Fisher, St. John’s, Capital and Wesley think and hope I’ll be wrong. I could honestly see all of those teams doing well on Saturday, but picking winners is all about actually picking winners.
And so it goes.
A couple of tidbits I promised in Around the Nation:
> With three of the four games on Eastern Time, fans across the country should have the chance to catch the end of the Johnnies-Warhawks game in a couple of ways. The St. Cloud Times runs a MIAC blog, and I’m assuming they plan to update it pregame, at the end of every quarter and postgame, like they did last week from Whitworth.
Also, UW-Whitewater’s internet broadcast partner Penn Atlantic (/www.pennatlantic.com) is schedule to have the game available for viewing for free. It may only be footage from the coaches’ tape or press box, I’m not exactly sure how it works. But even if it’s not a slickly-produced TV feed, it beats what you can get for most D3 games.
As always, our Weekly Schedules page should have audio/webcast links to all the games, through NCAASports.com. Pat Cummings and I will be at Wesley … and for anything else, you’ll have to check the pages yourself
> My understanding of next week’s possible matchups, with game sites:
SJF or Rowan at Mount Union
SJF or Rowan at Capital
Wesley or UMHB at Whitewater
St. John’s at Wesley
St. John’s at UMHB
St. John’s as a 7 seed would definitely be on the road, as would both of the East Region teams (3 and 4 seeds) against the North Region (1 and 2 seeds).
November 30th, 2006 at 8:18 pm
Gordon Mann and Mark Roberts at UW-Whitewater/St. John’s.
Seth Cantor and Eric Renn at St. John Fisher/Rowan.
November 30th, 2006 at 8:18 pm
http://www.d3football.com/audio/
November 30th, 2006 at 9:13 pm
Thanks, PC.
As you all can see, that’s Pat’s department.
November 30th, 2006 at 9:46 pm
When games are played at any level in any sport at the jucture of the season alot of the time games can be either very close or very one sided. And I don’t think that a team on either side of the sheet can be considered a failure if they are beaten soundly. We saw that at Welsey last year were things went extremely well for them even though they were a decided underdog for 3 straight weeks and then the opposite occured. Playing down hill as they say is a lot easier than up hill.
Wesley 30 UMHB 20
Eating up the clock can also hurt UMHB if Wesley can score from anywhere on the field as has been the case all year. That will put Welsey’s D on the field more which does allow teams to get some points. But Wesley will stack up well if UMHB doesn’t keep them honest with a passing game. Wesley’s DB’s single cover very well which allows them 7 or 8 men in the box.
SJF 27 Rowan 21 OT
I think Rowans luck runs out. They have played some tough games and aftyer a while it catches up with you.
UW-W 28 St. John’s 17
Wonder if that winter storm has any effect? Would love to see another game in Dover but I don’t think the St. Johns can win in Whitewater
Mt. Union 34 Capitol 17
I don’t think Beavers is tired yet.. I don’t think Capitol can outscore the MT.
Good Luck to all teams.
November 30th, 2006 at 10:11 pm
ROWAN 21 SJF 17
November 30th, 2006 at 10:21 pm
I’ve never been much for picking scores, but I’m going with UWW, MUC, Rowan, and UMHB.
Side note on the video broadcast of the SJU/UWW…if you don’t have a very good internet connection, you will have a hard time with it. I’m not sure what they are doing for this game, but they teamed up with the UWW-TV station (they broadcast all the home games on campus tv) to provide that feed on the net.
November 30th, 2006 at 10:25 pm
I may be misunderstanding you PA Wesley, but are you referring to Justin Beaver under the Mount/Cap game? Last time I checked, he’s got a warhawk on the helmet. Perhaps you mean some guy named Kmic that seems to thrive in the playoffs…
November 30th, 2006 at 11:08 pm
My goals for this weekend’s trip to the West Region Finals are as follows:
1) Don’t die on a snowy road in a firey car crash. That would put a serious crimp in my holiday plans.
2) Don’t be in New Jersey when December 1 becomes December 2. I’ve got a flight from Newark Airport to O’Hare at 8:25 PM tomorrow but we’ll see whether the weather cooperates.
Maybe I’ll end up flying into Milwaukee. Or Madison. Or Minneapolis. Or Midway. Or some other place that starts with an M. As long as I’m not stranded in New Jersey waiting for a plane that never comes.
3) Don’t watch a blowout.
Actually, if I get through No. 1 and No. 2, that last one will just be gravy.
November 30th, 2006 at 11:09 pm
By the way, I suppose I could plug the Wesley or UMHB broadcast over Pat Cummings and that other guy for D3football.com, but that would just be spiteful.
November 30th, 2006 at 11:21 pm
Runner
Yup I transposed and deleted wronngly!!! Sorry for the ERROR
November 30th, 2006 at 11:41 pm
I was gonna say, as a Wesley fan, if you’ve got some info on “Beavers” (s intended), share it!
Gordo, nice to see you back around here.
And I’m, I honestly had my nose too deep in ATN and things these past couple days to see who else was broadcasting where. But since all of our readers are just a click away …
Interesting thoughts on the games. Rowan’s luck could run out, and even though Rowan and SJF seem pretty even, Rowan at Mount Union has a better ring to it than St. John Fisher at Mount Union.
I’ve never been to Columbus, FWIW. Or Canton even.
I will most likely be in Ohio next week, unless the aforementioned SJU visit to Dover takes place.
That would be interesting. When was the last time SJU played on the East Coast?
November 30th, 2006 at 11:57 pm
D3Keith
No I don’t have a scoop on Beavers. I don’t even know if he is still enrolled at Wesley.
That would be a nice addition for whoever the future QB at Wesley is especially with the running game they will have.
December 1st, 2006 at 12:10 am
D3Keith:
‘…Rowan at Mount Union has a better ring to it than St. John Fisher at Mount Union.”
While I understand the historical significance of such a matchup, I don’t think history has a role to play in the amount and level of interest. How many blogs have appeared here over recent weeks referring to the successes of yesteryear, only to be exposed as irrelevant to the current situation?
December 1st, 2006 at 12:21 am
I should add that history does not NECESSARILY play a role. Having said that, a Rowan win proves my earlier comment that they are the “Timex” of the D3 football world. What a story that would be!
December 1st, 2006 at 12:28 am
National Semi-Finals
UMHB at UW-Whitewater
Rowan at Mount Union
The Cru are the underdogs this time around but I believe they are going to put on a huge performance. Last year they had no idea who they were up against now they know. Expect sweet revenge to be executed. UMHB has definitely had a much tougher schedule than Wesley College. But I guess we will see on Saturday.
December 1st, 2006 at 1:07 am
So here’s the deal. Fisher will not lose. Rowan, although a nasty defense, doesnt quite understand how nasty our offense is. Also, 23 points on a stellar defense of Fisher will NOT happen. Fisher’s defense continually gets underrated! There is absolutley no way that a “semi-good offense” is going to score 23 on Fisher - only two teams have scored 20 on Fisher. I am calling the score 28-10 Fisher. The only reason I see Fisher losing to Rowan is if the weather gets to their head, which I seriously seriously doubt. The only Fiser loses this game is if FISHER messes up, not if Rowan is that good. Watch and Listen.
December 1st, 2006 at 1:35 am
LG1970,
I don’t know the answer to the question(s) in your first post, but I think history, or better yet, name recoginition, most certainly does play a role in the level of interest people take in the game.
It may not BE a better game or matchup, but it has “a better ring to it.”
That’s my point and I’m sticking to it.
December 1st, 2006 at 1:38 am
And I mean, too, for the East Region fans, they might feel more confident sending Rowan to Alliance, knowing they’ve been there, the program has won there, and the mystique may not be mystifying.
By the same token, I love seeing new teams on the come up. I’d also like to see Mark Robinson, et. al., play.
It could be in Columbus for all I care, I’m going to be interested either way.
December 1st, 2006 at 8:15 am
I tend to agree with rachacha in the sense that a very good offense (SJF) vs. a good defense (Rowan) will beat an average at best offense (Rowan) vs. a very good defense (SJF). Final score 27-13 SJF. But I do also agree with D3K in that any team in the East, aside from Rowan, that goes to Alliance will be in trouble. Playing in the national semis against MUC will be overwhelming and “mystifying” to SJF. However, I’m hoping they can play the “we have nothing to lose” card and go into Alliance and pull the shocker of the year.
As for other scores:
UMHB 31 Wesley 17
MUC 38 Capital 24
UWW 28 St. Johns 27
December 1st, 2006 at 9:00 am
This East Bracket final is a tough one. Rowan, like everyone has been saying, has the experience and confidence to go out to a semi-final and give MT Union a game. Yet I have been very impressed with SJF’s defense and offense, especially in the playoffs. This one is going to be tough to call but I’ll give it a shot. Anything will be better than my Union heavy brackets! Rowan 14 SJF 10
December 1st, 2006 at 9:07 am
Rowan runs out of luck, SJF 31 Rowan 17. Only stopper would be a nasty winter storm, then it’s anybodies game.
December 1st, 2006 at 10:16 am
I’m making the 5+ hr trip to Rochester this afternoon, hopefully the weather will cooperate.
I was in Alliance last year and Linfield the year before. I can say this from those two experiences: No matter who wins the east, it will be a difficult chore. These small towns in other parts of the country live for their teams.
That said, Rowan has the better defense and the better QB. If Rowan can contain the SJF running game they should prevail in a tight one. Word of advise toSJF: capitilize when you have the opportunity early because if the game is close late, Rowan will find a way to win.
Rowan 20 SJF 13
December 1st, 2006 at 10:19 am
sorry I just can’t see fisher only scoring 10 when before this game their lowest point total was 27 and that was in a game that they made a ton of mistakes….I think it comes to this the Rowan D is slightly better then the Fisher D. The Fisher O is a lot better than the Rowan O Rowan has a lot of experiance Fisher has some experiance….Fisher has the home crowd and from what I’m hearing could get incredibly insane
December 1st, 2006 at 10:27 am
hold on the Better QB have you seen Kramer or Kramers stats lets compare stats. Kramer Qb Effincey 170.52 1 int 65.6 Comp% 1714 yards 18 td’s
Orihel-Effic 108.77 12 int 54.7 comp % 1683 yards 10 td’s
you tell me with these stats who would you want as your qb…the numbers tell the tale
December 1st, 2006 at 10:46 am
D3Keith and Pat:
Wesley gets no respect. You folks pick UMHB to take us out last year. As I recall, Wesley won. I hope you both are as wrong again this year. I am hoping for a Wesley win and St. Johns win so Wesley can play the semifinal at home next week instead of on a slap of ice.
D3Keith:
Larry Beavers is academically ineligible. He comes to almost every game and hopes to return next year. Marcus Lee was back this fall but left college early in the semester.
GO WOLVERINES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
December 1st, 2006 at 11:00 am
Superman: I don’t care what the stats say, Rowan has the better QB as you’ll find out. His “not so hot” stats are a product this year of inexperienced receivers and a conservative offense scheme ( I sound like his agent).
The reason for the low score prediction is two-fold: Looks like bad weather and the Rowan defense is ranked among the best in the country. I haven’t seen SJF and can only go by what I’ve read, but I have seen Rowan all year and can tell you they haven’t played to their capabilities all year and still they have found ways to win. That makes them dangerous or it could finally catch up to them.
December 1st, 2006 at 11:05 am
I’m sorry a good qb finds ways to get the good stats at some point 12 interceptions is 12 interceptions…Kramer has been dealing with the same thing as Orihel ok WR’s but look at what he’s done sorry Kramer is the better qb here
December 1st, 2006 at 11:09 am
I have seen Fisher all year. I can say wholeheartedly that this team has something to fight for; its called RESPECT. Being there doesnt mean anything when you are in growney stadium with a sea full of Fisher fans with nasty weather. What will win out for Fisher is there very well rounded offense and defense. Rowan may have a great QB but we’ve seen that already with Springfield. Having a “great QB” does not equal a great team. Yes, it could be close. But i really don’t think that Fisher is going out on this one.
December 1st, 2006 at 11:18 am
Springfield was one dimensional, Rowan is not.
December 1st, 2006 at 11:19 am
Good luck to anyone trying to come to Whitewater today. About six inches of snow so far and it’s still coming down pretty good; and anyone trying to fly into Milwaukee, well, I guess it’s blizzard conditions out there.
Oh yeah,
UWW- 35
St. Johns- 14
December 1st, 2006 at 12:17 pm
Here are my predictions for scores.
UWW - 35
St. John’s - 14
MHB - 28
Wesley - 10
Rowan - 24
SJF - 21
Capital - 28
Mount Union - 24
Me - 0
My car’s head gasket - $968.69
Ok, the Mount Union score looks odd, but if I picked a score which had them winning, then I would almost want them to win so I would have a correct prediction. So I decided to go with an upset. Capital is a darn good team, and Mount Union can’t win every single time (even though it seems so).
I think UW Whitewater may even score more points.
December 1st, 2006 at 12:21 pm
By the way, I do have Mount Union winning against Capital in Pick ‘em. That does not mean I wouldn’t be thrilled if MU lost. I think probably 95% of Pick ‘em entries have Mount Union beating Capital in that game.
Does anyone not have Mount Union winning this game (against whoever) in the Pick ‘em? Does anyone not have Mount Union going to the Stagg Bowl?
I’m just curious and am interested in why?
December 1st, 2006 at 12:32 pm
rachacha,
Might I add, Rowan plays this little thing called “defense.”
Great to see a Profs fan and Cardinals fan take an unbiased look at who the better QB is.
ICBomber91,
I like the points you made and the way you shared your reasoning.
I guess if that storm keeps moving … we have four locales liable to get snow. I was saying I think it would hurt the speed teams at Wesley most … but then again, since UMHB likes to run so much anyway, it just might be an epic battle btween Cru O-line and Wesley front seven.
I have no idea what shoes you wear for turf + snow. I always played on grass.
Archer,
I laid out my reasoning for the pick pretty clearly. I didn’t make my mind up on that one until I went through everything. I certainly think Wesley can win, but I like UMHB a bit better. I respect them both. Not sure the No. 3 team in the country gets “no respect,” just not enough for your liking. Understandable, I suppose.
I don’t think the last year’s argument really helps Wesley, given that last year Beavers lit up UMHB for four long TDs in the h2h meeting, and he’s not with you this year … and last year you lost to Whitewater 58-6, which UMHB just played to a draw practically in October. (The UMHB performance in that game weighed heavily into my thinking.)
I’m not saying those are the only arguments to consider, they’re not even terribly relevant when talking about this year … just don’t think bringing up last year actually helps Wesley’s argument as much as you think it does.
And let’s just get this out in the open, from the Wesley fans:
Do you or do you not think Wesley would have won last year’s semifinal if it had not played at Whitewater, on ice, with the wrong shoes, whatever whatever?
December 1st, 2006 at 12:34 pm
I was looking forward to watching the SJU/WW game on the internet feed (that is outstanding) however I’ll be putting in a new floor in one of my bathrooms instead.
One of the bummers of Linfield not making the field this year….my “to do” list just moved up by about 3-4 weeks.
Here are my picks:
Rowan
Wesley
Mount
UWW
December 1st, 2006 at 1:15 pm
This has nothing to do with anything really I was just looking for an answer. It says that Brett Elliot of Linfield is the all time leading touchdown passer in a season with 61, but Bill Borchert of Mount threw 63 I think in like 1998 for mount union and he only played 14 games as apossed to Elliots 15.. I know playoff stats did not count then but still. I dunno just wondered if I had my stats right????????????????????Go MUC beat CAP.
December 1st, 2006 at 1:19 pm
Good luck with that flying Gordon…
I am in the Portland International Jetport (that’s Portland, Maine). Currently awaiting my 1:15pm flight to Philadelphia which is now “tentatively” scheduled to leave for Philadelphia at 4:06pm. Although, the gate agent here says…
“Air traffic control could give us an earlier time, so really, your flight could leave any time from 1:30 to 4:06, or later of course.”
“Grand!” I think. Glad I got my lobster roll already.
Assuming I make it home tonight - which I really think is in question (I always think the worst when flying…diminish my expectations and then a positive turn seems like gold)…I am STOKED for this Wesley/UMHB game. I don’t really have a score prediction or opinion - just hoping to be there behind the mic when the ball is let loose in Dover.
(As a kid starts screaming in the background…)
BRUTAL.
December 1st, 2006 at 1:57 pm
The numbers are crunched.
The win / loss record for the CCIW from 1973 to now is: 34-24.
the 1970’s: 0-1
the 1980’s: 20-6
the 1990’s: 4-7
the 2000’s: 10-10
Prior to the playoff expansions, a team only needed to win 3 games to win it all.
December 1st, 2006 at 2:17 pm
Um. Did I say I was going to UWW/SJU?
Uh, yeah. I meant Mount Union/Capital. The weather cancelled my flight so I’ll be driving to Alliance instead.
Now I just have to hope that my first and third wish expressed above work out.
December 1st, 2006 at 2:21 pm
I have no issue giving way to a better qb or a better team…but being a stats person and someone who worked in the NFL world with stats…they matter A LOT. lets go sheerly fantasy football right now. and you can have either Mike Oriehl as your starting qb-a qb who has experiance and is playing on an experianced team or you can have Rob Kramer who had not started untill this year but has huge numbers on a team that is farther then they have ever been before….I just feel that while numbers don’t always say everything these numbers aren’t even close
December 1st, 2006 at 2:27 pm
MUC - 31
Cap - 17
Pat or Keith, you coming to Alliance this week?
December 1st, 2006 at 2:41 pm
Rochester weather: flurries and wind gusts 20 to 30 mph. Quarterback issue probably won’t come into play. Increased fumbles and misplays by both offenses. Looks like Rowan’s luck is still holding, it will come down to who can overcome the weather miscues. SJF 21 Rowan 14
December 1st, 2006 at 2:43 pm
Rowan will lose this weekend… why is everyone picking them, SJF is a better team over all than Rowan is?
December 1st, 2006 at 2:52 pm
Superman57 I hear you, it is hard to say either way. I have seen them both play. Kramer did nothing but impress me last week. He looks as if he is going to be slow and lathargic, he is neither. He throws well, sees the field well, and makes good decisions, as I said earlier, he is nothign but impressive. Oriehl is just good period. Yet I agree his stats are not what they should be, or could be, and do not compare with Kramer. It really is a hard call and I don’t think you can call it either way. This is one aspect of this weekend that makes this game great! I think the better QB will be the QB who leads his team to victory on Sat. Both teams have many dimensions, all that can win or lose the game. Yet I think the winner of this game has the bragging rights! NOt only as a team but in regards to the QB. If Kramer beats Rowan it will shut all the doubters up! I am still a doubter though, I think Rowan takes it. This may be good for SJF. Each week I have rooted against them. Obviously with Union, one-dimensional Springfield and I have been wrong. If SJF wins tomorrow they will have eardned my respect for a long time. Question: Could either hold a candle to Mt.Union?
December 1st, 2006 at 3:00 pm
D3Keith:
Although I do not have in front of me the rational you and Pat used last year to pick UMHB over Wesley I would guess it was about the same as this year’s rational, that was my point. My guess is that if Wesley played UWW on a natural field, with field turf, on a nice sunny day we still loose but not 58-6, maybe 42-21! UWW was clearly the better team.
No hot dogs and sodas for you in the press box at half time! lol
December 1st, 2006 at 3:01 pm
Dlippeil great post…you explained it better than anyone…. and no I do not think that this rowan team can hang with MUC….and I’m not sure about fisher right now I will say no that they can not hang with MUC BUT!!!!!! Fisher has done nothing but suprise me this year with the dismantlings of UofR, Ithaca, Alfred, and Union…and the solid game the defense played against the best ground attack in d3 of springfield…everytime I thought a game would be a close one Fisher has come out and throughly beaten the opponent
December 1st, 2006 at 3:42 pm
Archer,
Just pushing the buttons that lead to a more complete discussion. Last year Wesley beat UMHB with turnovers and big pass plays. What if UMHB this forces you to line up and beat them?
I also don’t think a 29-28 pick is a very big slight. People who are man enough to make their picks have to go against one team or the other.
Superman57,
Stats don’t always tell the whole story. Period. If you’ve done what you say you’ve done, you know that. I’m not saying Kramer is or isn’t better than Orihel (I would bet not, but I haven’t seen Kramer), but SJF has by far the better supporting cast this year. Maybe you can take Orihel’s numbers from last season when he had a comparable supporting cast.
I don’t know who that would favor, I just thought I would point out one of the many ways stats don’t tell the whole story.
Shoot, if they did, Alma would be playing this week.
December 1st, 2006 at 3:45 pm
For the record, I’m pulling for SJF to win just to see a new team travel to Alliance for the Semi’s. I’ve seen Rowan enough.
December 1st, 2006 at 4:01 pm
Well,
Either way, we are getting off topic. Who the better fantasy QB would be between Kramer and Orihel has no bearing on who wins Saturday. Defense is a huge factor for both of these teams … weather, special teams, etc.
Gordon,
That stinks. But at least we have that TV feed and three D3.com/NCAAsports.com broadcasts now Which reminds me:
From UW-W:
Keith,
I was reading your comments on the daily dose about the Penn Atlantic video stream for this Saturday’s game and wanted to update you on the quality of the broadcast. All of UWW’s regular season games and all of the playoff games we host are telecast via UWWTV to 100,000 homes along the Charter Communications Channel 20 network (throughout Southeastern Wisconsin and Northern Illinois). This broadcast uses five cameras, instant replay, graphics, and two announcers in the booth plus we frequently have a third announcer on the sidelines. This production is directed by one staff member and manned by about fifteen undergraduate students. This is the broadcast that will be shown over Penn Atlantic. It is of exceptional quality for a division III game. Our students spend a great deal of time prepping for the game (taping interviews and preparing the in-game graphics). Needless to say a number of our students go on to professional careers in television and radio.
Since Penn Atlantic does not charge for the NCAA playoff games telecast over the web, be sure to urge your readers to connect in as they will get a chance to see our TV crew in action and they will be treated to a quality television broadcast via the web. One final note, UWW established this special partnership with Charter Communications several years ago and we televise live all of our home football games, as well as many of our home volleyball, basketball (women’s as well as men’s), and select other sports. All of these games are available via Penn Atlantic. Over the years, our students have telecast NCAA playoff games in basketball, baseball, volleyball and, of course, football. Needless to say, only at a Division III university would undergraduate students get the chance to televise a live NCAA playoff quarterfinal game. Like last year, we hope to be televising the semifinal game as well.
Dick Haven
Associate Dean”
December 1st, 2006 at 4:07 pm
Breaking news out of Goldthwait, Texas –
D3football.com has canceled their Game of the Week broadcast of the West regional final between University of Wisconsin-Whitewater and St. John’s University due to weather and travel cancellations. You can tune in the game through allinbroadcasting.com.
Thanks!
December 1st, 2006 at 4:09 pm
Whoa,
6 new comments. Most I’ve ever had to moderate at once.
Anyway,
Purplephyco, I always thought Borchert in ‘97 maybe, had 54 TDs and 1 INT in the regular season and after the Stagg Bowl had 67 and 2.
But last year at the end of the season, I did the research to debunk some D3 records myths. We found that Justin’s Beaver’s 2,400 yards last year was four yards short of Ricky Gales of Simpson in 1989, and Gales did in in 11 games as opposed to 15.
I did not find any evidence that I was correct about Borchert, however, meaning Elliott really does hold the record with 61 and/or I missed it.
P-Cummings,
You’d better be there. Archer says he has two hot dogs and two sodas at halftime for you.
(has never done play-by-play … How hard could it be? … Doesn’t want to find out)
December 1st, 2006 at 4:10 pm
You go, Dick.
That’s really top shelf that UWW is putting it out for everyone. But I’ll still be making the drive and seeing the game in person. Nothing like being there…..
December 1st, 2006 at 4:14 pm
So, uh, who wants to tell Pat that broke at 2:17 p.m.?
(knows Pat will not take kindly to this message)
December 1st, 2006 at 4:17 pm
AJWassup:
Pat is on the “Tour de Tejas” trip for D3hoops.com and Keith will be at Wesley/UMHB with Pat Cummings.
So you get stuck with the C-team — I’ll be there for the game.
It’ll be just like that movie the Replacements. I’ll even do the game under the Keanu Reaves personna.
December 1st, 2006 at 4:58 pm
Keith stats don’t tell everything but…the good qb’s find a way to not make mistakes….most interceptions are the QB’s fault…so if you take the inexperiance for granted and knock of his interceptions by half and add 5 more touchdowns his numbers still read 15 touchdowns 6 interceptions not a bad year but not a great year
December 1st, 2006 at 5:01 pm
Keith
I don’t know if Wesley would have won or not last year at UW-W but the score may have been 56-48. Would have been interesting to see on a dry field. And the way the weather is churning up if both teams win again it may be another nasty day in Whitewater next weekend.
I think you guys in the booth will be a little more toasty than us outside tomorrow. I don’t think there is much chance for snow other than a few flurries at best. Stop and say hello I sit next to the door to the press box. usually second row isle seat..
December 1st, 2006 at 5:02 pm
and Keith my band teacher in high school would always tell us your only as good as your last performance…so last year is well last year
December 1st, 2006 at 5:28 pm
So Gordon…I take it traffic is going to hold you up tomorrow then???
(insert rim shot here).
December 1st, 2006 at 5:39 pm
20 MPH winds predicted in Alliance tomorrow. If that holds true, MUC wins big, as the fans will witness the Nate Kmic show.
December 1st, 2006 at 5:46 pm
Well, assuming I’ve done the math correctly…
MUC by 11
UWW by 13
SJF by 3
Wesley by
December 1st, 2006 at 5:47 pm
hmm, it didn’t like my < sign
should be Wesley by less than 1
December 1st, 2006 at 5:59 pm
I love how all of you are counting out the Johnnies…just like in 2003 when they played Mount Union and we all remember what happened there, or how about in 200 again against Mount Union, no the J’s didn’t win that one, but they sure made it interesting…hey SeanGOP…what team do you root for again? Augustana? Is that what I saw a while ago? I forgot are they one of the “8″ still alive? Lets remember that last year the Johnnies turned it over 8 times one a fumble that was returned for a score…tomorrow’s game will be interesting, will the Johnnies win, not sure…will it be a better game than last year, yea I think so…
December 1st, 2006 at 6:34 pm
Any Cap fans out there? Fans from the other seven teams have weighed in on their team’s chances…..
December 1st, 2006 at 6:45 pm
Only at Goldthwaite by 4:07 pm…
He had better hurry if he is going to make Georgetown by 6pm!!!
Maybe the NCAA gave him the wrong mapping software!?!
December 1st, 2006 at 6:53 pm
Pat,
Were you in:
a) Abilene
b) Brownwood
c) Both
d) None of the above
for a game?
December 1st, 2006 at 7:13 pm
Here’s another few points to ponder… Winds tomorrow are expected 10 to 20 mph. Both teams have real good kickers but this may sway to a bit of an advantage to Wesley because the wind usually blows across the field and not from end zone to end zone. One other point. Wesley has intimidated punters into bad kicks all season long. In a defensive game that could be a big advantage.
December 1st, 2006 at 8:08 pm
st johns may upset UWW….wesley will handle UMHB
December 1st, 2006 at 8:51 pm
I find everyone’s comments rather amusing when it comes to the UW-Whitewater/St. John’s game tommorrow afternoon. Yes, I know UW-Whitewater is rather solid all the way around, however please take into account what happened last year when these teams met. Johnnies - 8-9 turnovers; UW-Whitewater - 1-2. It does not take a rocket scientist to realize that if a team turns the ball over that many times against a good team, they will get beat and more than likely BIG. For most of the year, SJU was ranked #3 in the nation, right behind UW-Whitewater. Yes, they did slip up against Bethel to close the season, but have proven why they are one of the top D3 teams in the nation by winning 2 hard games on the road. Why can’t they make it 3 in a row? I will be attending the game tommorrow in Whitewater and let me tell you, UWW is in for a rude awakening. I have not seen one person give the Johnnies a chance, it makes me laugh. I will tell you this: SJU will NOT turn the ball over 8 times this game and the final outcome will be much different than last year. Final Score: St. John’s 28 UW-Whitewater 17. GO JOHNNIES!!
December 1st, 2006 at 9:09 pm
Well…it is now 9pm…and I’m still not in Philadelphia.
Got on the plane in Portland to go to Philadelphia and then they said we had to get off…so I did. That was 1:50pm.
Air traffic control said we wouldn’t leave until at least 4:45pm. Knowing Philadelphia ATC…always playing third fiddle to the NYC and Washington/Baltimore air traffic, I figured I would take a shot.
I got onto a flight from Portland to Washington Reagan at 3pm with a connection to PHL at 5:40pm, getting me into Philly at 7pm.
I arrive into DC on time and the PHL flight looks golden. I’m patting myself on the back with this one.
5:40 comes and goes and they say Philly Air Traffic Control has backed us up to 9pm departure. Now - I saw some of the flight crew hear this and their reactions weren’t the best. Flight crews are limited in their allowable hours of working and I had a feeling that if we really couldn’t leave til 9pm, the crew would time out.
So…I took a chance and left the airport, grabbed the Metro to Union Station and am currently on a train back to Philly to arrive at 30th St. Station at 10:30pm. Interestingly enough, I saw a flight attendant who had been at Reagan waiting for the Philly flight…she confirmed my suspicicion that she thought the flight crew was going to time out…so she decided to take the train too…
The right decision would have been to stay in Portland and wait for the Philly flight cause I’d have been home by now…but hindsight is always perfect.
I’ll make the game tomorrow as long as no trees fall on the tracks or we have some sort of incident on the Amtrak Regional…
See you in Dover bright and early tomorrow AM!!!
December 1st, 2006 at 9:14 pm
patcummings
you live in philly? that makes sense.you have the luck of a Philadephian!!!!
December 1st, 2006 at 9:19 pm
Yeah I do…but I travel around the country most of the year for work. I leave Sunday for…drum roll please…Iron Mountain, Michigan.
No drum roll?
Eh.
December 1st, 2006 at 9:29 pm
Keith,
I called from the road and asked Ryan to post it. He posted it. I didn’t ask him to check to see if Gordon had already posted it and he didn’t think to check either.
Give me a break — next time I will call YOU and ask you to post it.
December 1st, 2006 at 9:35 pm
I find the comments rather amusing as well about St. John’s/UW-Whitewater. People are assuming that turnovers occur in a vacuum, that all of the Johnnies’ turnovers were simply bad luck. Well, that’s not true. You can’t assume they will turn the ball over zero times either.
In the game I saw, St. John’s was down 21-7 at the half after turning the ball over just twice. It’s not like all of those eight turnovers were turned into points. Four fumbles and an interception came looooong after the game was decided.
December 1st, 2006 at 9:38 pm
Ralph: 4:07 ET, which left me plenty of time to get here by 6 p.m. CT.
December 1st, 2006 at 9:49 pm
Pat, thanks for the comment. While I agree with you that we cannot expect zero turnovers this time around, eight is out of the question. It is not like UW-Whitewater “blew” us out of the water last year. Again, yes they capitalized on our miscues, but at the same time we had chances to make something happen and didn’t. Trust me, I KNOW UW-Whitewater is a fantastic team, but everyone is already crowning them “West Region Champs”. All I am saying is I would not bank on a home-game next weekend in Whitewater if I were you. Johnnies will win this game and prove all the naysayers wrong. Johnnies ROLL Saturday!
December 1st, 2006 at 11:00 pm
Although I’m certainly not as optimistic about the St. John’s chances as you are, I think that to say the Johnnies will roll tomorrow is a bit much. Yes, last year UWW FORCED 9 turnovers by St. John’s, which is very unlikely to happen again; however, I’m a very strong believer in the fact that our defense is even better than it was last year, and our offense is still one of the best in the country. I do think that St. John’s will fare much better, but it won’t be enough. UWW is coming off a close game against UW-L in which they made many more mistakes than usual. I look for them to be focused and ready to take care of business.
December 2nd, 2006 at 12:30 am
wow johnnie!
u obviously have no idea how “fantastic” of a team whitewater really is. scoring 17 points at home in beaver’s conditions????? is that for real??? didnt whitewater score 58 in similar conditions last year against a good wesley team??? i think u sir might be the one in store for a rude awakening.
December 2nd, 2006 at 1:18 am
Hopefully St. John’s has the right shoes.
December 2nd, 2006 at 1:27 am
And UWW did not force *all* nine of the SJU turnovers, just for the record. I remember one fumble that Alex Kofoed just plain dropped.
December 2nd, 2006 at 2:57 am
purplephyco,
Elliott threw 61 TD’s in 13 games in 2004 season.
December 2nd, 2006 at 3:02 am
True Pat. I was just trying to make a point that the majority of them were not just “miscues” by St John’s. Looking forward to a great game in about 10 hours…now it’s time to rest up for it.
December 2nd, 2006 at 5:28 am
I was just nearing the end of a lenghty unbiased post about the SJF-Rowan match-up when I lost my connection and my post. And I dont really have the patience to re-type it again…but here goes:
Anyone looking at the stats alone (if you havent seen both teams play at least twice each AND at least one game agaist a quality opponent) says SJF all day by 20 and twice on Sunday. If you have seen both play, and I highly doubt anyone has (I havent either) then you can weigh in with an educated opinion as to how the Rowan defense may be able to hold the SJF offense under 27 pts (their lowest output of season) to compensate for their offense that has only scored over 20 twice (2) all year!
I, on the other hand, am not going to be feeling overly confident headin out to the game in about 4 hrs knowing that SJF offense has been unstoppable and that Rowan’s offense doesnt score, because that CRAP (stats) means ZERO right about now. Rowan is Rowan until SJF becomes SJF today. Ya ever hear of the Atlanta Braves in the NL East….if you havent, they ran off 14 straight Division Titles recently because they knew what it was like to execute when the stats werent in their favor.
SJF must execute for 60 minutes today the way they have all year or their numbers will be nothing but excuses that us SJF fans will use for the next twelve months as we blame a loss to Rowan on weather, turnovers (SEE JOHNNIES POSTS ABOVE) or some other happening today that is part of the same game that the other team is playin in.
Please dont read this post as an early obit for SJF. I am just being unbiased for 5 min., and trying to stress that the only thing that counts this season is today for only 60 short minutes where one mistake makes the difference between going home this week OR GOING HOME FROM ALLIANCE NEXT WEEK!!!
With that said, since I havent seen Rowan play this year, I can look at the numbers and easily justify my pick at SJF Offense 27
Rowan Offense 18
Its been a long road SJF faithful, lets bring it today!!!!!
December 2nd, 2006 at 5:46 am
oops, looks like I messed up on my numbers a bit…Rowan only scoring 20 twice…I meant that the two times they gave up 20, they lost…Kinda my point though that stats dont matter in a game like this
December 2nd, 2006 at 10:03 am
UWWFootball & UWWRunner, hey you took what I was saying and blew it out of proportion. Yes, the Johnnies DID have Nine turnovers last year, what’s in the past is in the past. I was merely saying, the team you saw last year was much better than they played. Case in point, this year everyone is crowning UW-Whitewater the West Region Champ, I just found that amusing; that is all. They have not even lined up to play yet and everyone is assuming they will move on. The Johnnies may not ROLL like I stated earlier, that is just my bias coming out, but I have a good feeling this will turn out positive today. I wish you and your Warhawk faithful the best of luck this afternoon and may the best team win.
December 2nd, 2006 at 10:51 am
MUC 36 / Capital 17
UMHB 27 / Wesley 24
Rowan 21 / SJF 20
UWW 35 / St. Johns 24
December 2nd, 2006 at 11:30 am
Fair enough Johnnie. I agree that last year we did not see the real St. John’s team. At the time, UWW was just rolling and if anybody had an off day, it turned into a blowout. Good luck to the Johnnies. I’m looking forward to a great game today.
December 2nd, 2006 at 4:37 pm
theoriginalupstate Says:
The 30th of November, 2006 at 7:55 pm
SJF 31 Rowan 20
—————————————–
Well at least I got the Fisher point total right…..
December 2nd, 2006 at 6:52 pm
D3Keith and Pat:
So nice to see you both wrong again. Last year Wesley beat UMHB by 10 and this year by 14. Maybe someday you will pick Wesley! I looked thru the blog and everyone seemed to pick UMHB over Wesley. I wonder why? Check the stats.! I think we did about 400 to their 250. A very long trip back to Texas! Let’s hope UWW is not be allowed to frezze the field again! I think you both picked Rowan over SJF-HA!
December 2nd, 2006 at 7:08 pm
D3Keith:
Your “gut feeling” that UMHB would win must have been an empty feeling at the end of the 34-20 win of Wesley over UMHB. Maybe one of these days you might pick Wesley over UMHB, but I doubt it!
December 2nd, 2006 at 7:38 pm
I am not a person who likes to be a bad sport, but Ii would only like to say one thing: I told you so.
Red-Zone Scores-Chances……. Rowan: 0-1 Fisher 4-4
FIRST DOWNS………………. Rowan 9 Fisher 18
dominated offense and defense.
December 2nd, 2006 at 10:17 pm
Archer,
I make the picks to give the people an expectation of what might happen; I don’t get any particular gratification from how often I’m right or wrong. Talk all the smack you want if it makes you feel better.
You make picks, you’re gonna be wrong some of the time. If there weren’t some games that could go either way at this point in the playoffs, something is way wrong.
Now I was way wrong today … on St. John Fisher. But I don’t think anyone saw 31-0 coming. We all knew Rowan didn’t really have the offense, but you begin to buy into teams that just find ways to win. Looks like the Cardinals didn’t allow it to remain close and let the Profs bust out any late-game magic and/or gifts. Couldn’t help but think Linfield ‘04 when I saw that final. Tough way to end, but maybe an indication they were playing above their heads the whole time.
Wesley earned their respect today. Nothing fluky about it. UMHB made it a game in the second half, and that’s what worried me about them, if they ever get that running game rolling, sometimes they win going away. I think it was Warrick who said in the postgame that this year was a more fulfilling offensive performance, because if you take away those big passes from last year, there wasn’t much offense. Today Wesley dictated the tempo by not being foolish and thinking they could run against UMHB. So Chip Knapp and Warrick took what they knew they could do, and made it work to their advantage.
More on that perhaps, in ATN.
So I got to meet a bunch of board regulars at the tailgate today. Archer, I take it that wasn’t you who yelled to me “Hey Keith, don’t pick us again next week” from the Wesley end. You did make a comment about halftime in the box, so I may have even met you, but you didn’t identify yourself.
In any case, I told the guy who yelled at me (good-naturedly, I thought) in the tailgate area (I was cutting across en route to Wesley’s postgame presser) that it’s a good thing this isn’t I-A, because we’d have had 1 vs. 2 set up a long time ago, and Wesley and SJF wouldn’t even have their shots. And clearly after their performances today, they deserve a chance at getting to the championship.
The one thing that should be a hot topic for Wesley this week is how representative that 58-6 was last year at UW-W … that was a shocker to me, I’m sure, if you go back and look at my picks this time last year.
I think the talk will be very similar to this week from St. John’s, that that 34-7 score last year wasn’t representative of how the two teams matchup. That proved true in a 17-14 game today.
I think that line of thinking will work for Wesley fans this week. It’s not going to be easy to go into Perkins and win on grass, but another 58-6 has to be very unlikely.
December 2nd, 2006 at 10:35 pm
A little disturbing, if not flattering, that a couple of you seem to be enjoying Pat and I being wrong more than you’re enjoying your team winning today.
The day what I say is more interesting than what happens on the field is my last day doing this.
December 2nd, 2006 at 10:50 pm
Superman57,
“You’re only as good as your last performance” holds up just as well in football as it must have in band. Good stuff.
That will sound sweet this week, for SJF and Wesley, I’m sure. And throwing out last year is realy the only thing Wesley can do. I give a lot of credit to Drass, when I asked him that question, he said they threw out last year this week too (i.e. not to get too overconfident about UMHB, not to read too much into the UWW loss).
Another few thoughts on Wesley … I love Drass, and I love their guys. Articulate on their thoughts about the game, guys mentioning God in the postgame. Just good stuff all around. I’m personally drawn to players from the Delaware Valley, and I like to see teams with some kind of mix, whether its racial, as in Wesley’s case, or just from different areas/backgrounds … in a way, that’s what college is all about, realizing that even people who look and talk like you had different home lives growing up and different outlooks on the world, and anytime you see all that blend together with a grand accomplishment in mind, and see it achieved, is a really cool thing to see.
I know it’s hard to believe, but the D3football.com staff tends to feel a little bit for all the teams. Rarely do we get anything but good reactions on the road, from fans and school officials, and it is nice to be appreciated, but it’s nicer to know you put all that time into a service that is being well-utilized.
Where I’m going with that, though, is that I really enjoy seeing the teams who won achieve, and I feel a little bit for the guys whose seasons ended today.
Kinda stinks to be a Capital senior … two 3-point quarterfinal losses to MUC. I mean, the flipside is not having been there at all and test yourselves, but it must also be no fun to know you were good enough to win twice, and you played well but not well enough.
St. John’s too, you can hold your heads high knowing you went into Whitewater just like La Crosse did last week and gave yourselves a chance.
But losing those 17-14 games, as opposed to 31-0, means — at least it did for me as a player — that you go back over the game in your mind and agonize over the plays that you missed, even if you made a bunch of big ones.
December 3rd, 2006 at 9:07 am
D3Keith:
Wasn’t me at the tailgate party, maybe the PAWesley fan or at half-time. I am not allowed to go tailgating. I would have come up and introduced myself.
Believe me, I was just busting you in the blog. I have been to all the Wesley games this year and almost all of their practices. Knapp and Drass are two great guys and coaches! I see them in action and marvel at what they do. I am with you 100% on the diversity thing. What a chance for everyone to grow and become productive adults. I, like many Wesley fans, was hoping for a St. John win so we could play at home, but I will be in Wisconsin supporting the Wolverines and hoping for a trip to the Stagg Bowl.
You and Pat and the others do a GREAT job! I am a BIG D3 web page fan. You do a super job of ginning up energy with the blog. If you are at Whitewater the drinks are on me.
GO WOLVERINES
December 3rd, 2006 at 2:01 pm
PAWesleyfan introduced himself.
It’s cool … there are a lot of people who read and don’t post and/or recognize the D3 staff from our pictures.
I’ve been doing this long enough to know not to get caught off-guard by anything anyone says to you, in person … I always have something good-natured to say back, and it comes through a lot better in person than on the boards.
December 3rd, 2006 at 2:43 pm
Archer
Twasn’t me!!!! I stood next to Keith and Cummings and had to look up to talk to both!!!!!
I gave them both an honest opinion on what I thought are the differences between last years and this years teams and what I thought they might look for from some of Wesleys unsung players.
I have been going to Wesley games 11 years and enjoy every trip regaurdless. I post more to inform and defend what I think about Wesley’s teams. And yes I get testy when someone interjects uninformed statements about the Wolverines. But I have been known to chum the waters so to speak.
And it is great when the team proves week after week that they belong where they are.
December 6th, 2006 at 2:10 pm
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