D3football Daily Dose

It’s all over but the number crunching, right?

Some years Pool B is a bear. Pool C is always a bear. And bracketing the teams is often easy to project but distasteful to do thanks to the NCAA’s grip on the pursestrings.

This year, at least, Pool B is easy. Three teams ran the table and finished 10-0, with Washington & Jefferson finishing 9-1. There were no other one-loss teams … or teams with two overall losses … in Pool B. Carnegie Mellon will give the UAA a playoff representative for the first time since 1999.

Pool C was not as easy. There are nine teams with one loss and only seven spots in Pool C. This year our team of bracketologists went one step further in our playoff projections, mocking up the final regional rankings that the committee will work from. We felt this was important with the shuffling in the East Region and especially the West, because Pool C candidates are evaluated in the order in which they are ranked in the region. The top team on the board in each of the four regions are evaluated against each other, and once a team is put in the field, the next team from its region replaces it on the list.

These are the primary criteria (not in priority order) which will be reviewed by the NCAA:
• Win-loss percentage against regional opponents
• In-region head-to-head competition
• In-region results against common regional opponents
• In-region results vs. regionally ranked teams.
Opponents are considered ranked only if they are ranked at the time of the ranking or playoff selection process.
• Quality of wins index–only contests versus regional competition (see Quality of Wins on the left-hand rail for most recent calculation)
• Conference postseason contest(s) is included.

One thing was brought home to me over the past year: Note that some areas say “results” against regional opponents, regionally ranked teams, etc. This does not say winning percentage. It’s possible that merely playing a regionally ranked team and losing is better than going 0-0. Something to keep in mind.

Here’s our best guess at the Field of 32, through the end of the regular season.

Wilkes Bracket
1. Wilkes (A)
2. Springfield (A)
3. St. John Fisher (C)
4. Hobart (C)
5. Union (A)
6. Rowan (A)
7. Dickinson (A)
8. Curry (A)
Hobart and Union are conference rivals, who do not need to meet in the first round as long as the NCAA’s “geographic proximity” is maintained. Curry plays at Wilkes, Dickinson at Springfield, Union at St. John Fisher and Rowan at Hobart. Dickinson moves over because … alas … we do not project Cortland State to be in the bracket. More on those decisions later.

Mount Union Bracket
1. Mount Union (A)
2. Capital (C)
3. Concordia (Wis.) (A)
4. Wheaton (C)
5. Mt. St. Joseph (A)
6. North Central (A)
7. Wittenberg (A)
8. Hope (A)
No shuffling required here. Remember, the NCAA has not flinched in the past at rematches of teams that met in non-conference games. Therefore, Wittenberg playing Capital again and Concordia and North Central meeting up is not a problem. Mt. St. Joseph cost itself a home game with its loss to Thomas More. Again note who’s absent, just the two Pool C teams in this bracket.

Wesley Bracket
1. Wesley (B)
2. Mary Hardin-Baylor (A)
3. Hardin-Simmons (C)
4. Carnegie Mellon (B)
5. Washington and Jefferson (B)
6. Christopher Newport (A)
7. Millsaps (A)
8. Washington and Lee (A)
Wow, Washington and Lee, falling behind a team that wasn’t even in the regional rankings last week. Ouch. Bad way to go into the playoffs. Now, of course, this is a vastly geographically challenged bracket. Millsaps can get to Mary Hardin-Baylor in 491.7 miles according to the NCAA’s approved mapping software (Mappoint, available to all online, with the shortest possible distance setting as always). This opens up a potential flight to bring someone to Hardin-Simmons, and Christopher Newport is seeded perfectly for the task. The two Pittsburgh-area teams play each other … and Washington and Lee goes to Wesley.

Wait, did we just construct a South bracket where the seedings hold true? Stop the presses!

Oh, right, no presses on the Web. So we march on.

UW-Whitewater Bracket
1. UW-Whitewater (A)
2. Central (A)
3. Whitworth (B)
4. UW-La Crosse (C)
5. Occidental (A)
6. Bethel (A)
7. St. John’s (C)
8. St. Norbert (A)
This is another bracket that requires a flight, with Occidental and Whitworth the logical teams to pair. St. Norbert treks to Whitewater, St. John’s to Central and Bethel to UW-La Crosse.

So our seven Pool C teams: Capital, St. John Fisher, Hobart, Wheaton, Hardin-Simmons, UW-La Crosse and St. John’s. The final three teams at the end were St. John’s, Cortland State and Franklin. (Trinity, as the top remaining South team, was also on the board but wasn’t a factor.) All three have very similar criteria.

We pondered some bracket scenarios in case the NCAA selected Franklin. That would put them in the North bracket in the No. 6 spot. North Central, most likely, would lift out of the North and head to the West where they would be a No. 8 seed, behind St. Norbert in most of the criteria. If they selected Cortland, then Dickinson stays in the South as the No. 6, Washington and Jefferson would likely move to the North, likely as the No. 6, and North Central goes to the West.

Welcome to Week 11!

Starting my day off by watching … yes, watching … the Curry/Coast Guard game on the Penn Atlantic video stream. Just saw Curry fake a punt and run for a first down, then bust open a long run which set up the game-tying touchdown. It’s 7-7 late in the first quarter.

You need a strong Net connection to get this video. There’s audio backup on our Scoreboard.

Last night I saw Rowan defeat William Paterson rather handily, and we might be ready to declare the return of the Profs’ offense. The young receivers are beginning to look halfway decent, though I can see why there hasn’t been a lot of confidence in them to date. Their hands weren’t perfect and sometimes their routes weren’t overly sharp.

Cortaca is tied at 7-7 with just under a minute to go in the first quarter. Game day doesn’t get much better than this.

It’s a great weekend for rivalries. And for every Cortaca Jug or Monon Bell or Shoes, there’s a Little Brown Bucket, an Old Musket, an Old Tin Cup, and Old Funky Knickers.

Sometime in the late ’20s, nobody really remembers when, the janitor cleaning out the locker room at State Normal School #2 came across a pair of pants left behind by someone from Central Mennonite College. The following year, when Normal’s team made the short trip over the mountains to play in their neighboring state, they attempted to return the knickers, which by now were less than sanitary, and were rebuffed. In the end, the battle was so fierce over them that they became a trophy symbol of the teams’ meeting, with the “trophy” going to the loser.

Seem unlikely? Absolutely. Totally made up? You bet. But the story isn’t all that unlike how many trophy games must have come about. The Goat Trophy? The Drum? The Shot Glass? The Wooden Shoes? They all have stories, too.

We’ve heard many stories about the Jug, the Shoes and the Monon Bell. But let’s hear from people with other tales to tell. What’s your local trophy game and your favorite memory?

By the way, State Normal School #2 and Central Mennonite College are/were actual Division III schools. State Normal #2 became Frostburg State, and Central Mennonite isnow Bluffton.

The NCAA’s regional rankings through Week 10 games:

People, please, note, the records are regional records, followed by overall record. Can’t tell you how many e-mails we get from people saying “you guys got the conference record wrong.” Conference record is not part of the regional rankings. The headers are here for you to read.

East Region
No. School, In-Region, Overall
1. Wilkes 9-0 9-0
2. Springfield 8-1 8-1
3. St. John Fisher 8-1 8-1
4. Union 7-1 7-1
5. Hobart 7-1 7-1
6. Rowan 5-1 6-2
7. Cortland State 7-1 8-1
8. Alfred 7-2 7-2
9. Curry 10-0 10-0
10. Ithaca 6-2 7-2

North Region
No. School, In-Region, Overall
1. Mount Union 9-0 9-0
2. Mount St. Joseph 9-0 9-0
3. Capital 8-1 8-1
4. Concordia (Wis.) 10-0 10-0
5. Wheaton 8-1 8-1
6. Franklin 8-1 8-1
7. Baldwin-Wallace 7-2 7-2
8. North Central 7-2 7-2
9. Wittenberg 6-2 6-3
10. Wabash 7-2 7-2

South Region
No. School, In-Region, Overall
1. Wesley 5-0 9-0
2. Trinity (Texas) 8-1 8-1
3. Mary Hardin-Baylor 7-2 7-2
4. Hardin-Simmons 7-1 7-1
5. Carnegie Mellon 8-0 9-0
6. Dickinson 8-1 8-1
7. Washington and Jefferson 7-1 8-1
8. Christopher Newport 7-1 7-2
9. Bridgewater (Va.) 6-2 7-2
10. Washington and Lee 7-2 7-2

West Region
1. UW-Whitewater 8-0 9-0
2. St. John’s 9-0 9-0
3. Central 8-0 9-0
4. Whitworth 8-0 9-0
5. UW-La Crosse 5-1 7-1
6. Occidental 8-0 8-0
7. Bethel 8-1 8-1
8. St. Norbert 9-0 10-0
9. Wartburg 8-1 8-1
10. Cal Lutheran 6-2 6-2

It’s that time of year again, our first playoff projections.

This is where we take the 21 automatic bids, eight of which are not yet set, then figure out at-large bids, some of which will lose between now and Selection Sunday, then seed them and pair them up logically … or fiscally … or geographically … or randomly, depending on the bracket.

In doing this every year, we have to toe a fine line. We can call some conference races, leave some open, pretend we know what’s going to happen, or ignore what has yet to be played. This is an inexact science, but it’s an attempt to look at the entire field using the NCAA’s stated selection/seeding criteria. But you can’t simply try to project one bracket in isolation. How do you know if there are eight West teams getting into the field, and not seven or nine or 10?

First, the basics:

Thirty-two teams will form four eight-team brackets. And we know the champions of 21 conferences will get an automatic bid to the playoffs. Four bids (Pool B) are set aside for independents or members of non-automatic bid conferences. The remaining seven bids go to what’s called Pool C, which is everyone left over.

So how will the brackets be formed, who will play whom? That’s what we answer each week from here until Selection Sunday. For more info check out our Playoff FAQ.

These are the primary criteria (not in priority order) which will be reviewed by the NCAA:
• Win-loss percentage against regional opponents
• In-region head-to-head competition
• In-region results against common regional opponents
• In-region results vs. regionally ranked teams.
Opponents are considered ranked only if they are ranked at the time of the ranking or playoff selection process.
• Quality of wins index–only contests versus regional competition (see Quality of Wins on the left-hand rail for most recent calculation)
• Conference postseason contest(s) is included.

One thing was brought home to me over the past year: Note that some areas say “results” against regional opponents, regionally ranked teams, etc. This does not say winning percentage. It’s possible that merely playing a regionally ranked team and losing is better than going 0-0. Something to keep in mind.

Here’s our best guess at the Field of 32, updated Nov. 7. This is just a projection as if the season had ended today. Teams in bold have clinched automatic bids.

Wilkes Bracket
1. Wilkes (a)
2. Springfield (a)
3. Union (a)
4. St. John Fisher (c)
5. Hobart (c)
6. Dickinson (a)
7. Rowan (a)
8. NEFC Champ (a)
The natural seedings avoid any conference rematches and the like, so there are no pairings shuffled here. No. 8 plays 1, 7-2, 6-3 and 5-4. … Dickinson moves from the South because only seven East teams were selected. … I don’t believe Curry can pass Rowan with a win in the NEFC title game. Regardless of who wins, the No. 8 seed is likely. … If St. John Fisher loses to Alfred, Alfred (projected .800 regional winning pct., approx. 10.700 QOW) has a shot at getting in. … By beating Cortland State, Ithaca (projected .778, 9.889) would likely to ensure neither team makes the playoffs. … By beating Ithaca, Cortland State (projected .889, 10.000) would likely get in and bump Dickinson back to the South.

Wesley Bracket
1. Wesley (b)
2. Trinity (Texas) (a)
3. Mary Hardin-Baylor (a)
4. Hardin-Simmons (c)
5. Carnegie Mellon (b)
6. Wash. & Jeff. (b)
7. Christopher Newport (a)
8. Wash. & Lee (a)
Yes, we know, Trinity has certainly not wrapped up the SCAC. If Millsaps wins, it would be the No. 8 seed. … Unless you’re new to Division III, you know that travel restrictions will change the matchups in this bracket. The NCAA won’t fly three teams to Texas. This would have the following pairings: Washington and Lee at Wesley, Hardin-Simmons at Trinity (Texas), Christopher Newport at Mary Hardin-Baylor, Washington and Jefferson at Carnegie Mellon. … Note the NCAA doesn’t really try to avoid rematches of in-season non-conference games, but it does try to avoid a rematch of a conference game in the first round.

Mount Union Bracket
1. Mount Union (a)
2. Mt. St. Joseph (a)
3. Concordia (Wis.) (a)
4. Capital (c)
5. Wheaton (c)
6. North Central (a)
7. Wittenberg (a)
8. Hope (a)
Standard matchups here. … The NCAA wouldn’t be concerned about matching NCC and CUW up again. … There’s a concern CUW’s facility isn’t sufficient to host (ask Carthage how that goes) and that game could be at NCC again, like it was in September’s double-overtime thriller.

UW-Whitewater Bracket
1. UW-Whitewater (a)
2. St. John’s (a)
3. Central (a)
4. Whitworth (b)
5. UW-La Crosse (c)
6. Occidental (a)
7. St. Norbert (a)
8. Wartburg (c)
Air travel again, put Occidental at Whitworth and St. Norbert at UW-La Crosse (a 2004 rematch). (This was incorrect; a poster corrects me below) … St. John’s would be considered upset-proof — if it loses its conference title, it would still get in.

The four Pool B teams — Wesley, Whitworth, Carnegie Mellon and Washington and Jefferson — are pretty easy picks right now and only W&J is vulnerable. If the Presidents lose, it opens up the possibility that Linfield might make the field. Nobody else really has a shot in Pool B.

The final Pool C decision came down to Cortland State, Franklin and Wartburg. Wartburg had the better credentials for now, but if Cortland State wins it would probably get the nod. Franklin has fairly decent numbers as well and could be selected but the committee has traditionally looked down on runners-up in the bottom conferences (ask any one-loss team from the Midwest Conference since 1999).

We’ll do this again at the end of the night on Saturday, heading into Selection Sunday.

Phew, well, I think we’re finally digging out from the craziness of the afternoon — no, not me at home with the three kids while my wife was working, but the systems failure at D3Scoreboard.com. Well, both.

Big news of the day … the lack of offense at Rowan and Cortland State. Ray Miles, already the backup thrust into a starting role at QB for the Red Dragons, broke his finger and his replacements struggled against the fierce Rowan D … the rest of the East upheaval … Linfield loses at home to Whitworth, lending some legitimacy to Whitworth’s ranking … teams clinching bids left, right and center (Mount Union, UW-Whitewater, Mary Hardin-Baylor, Wilkes, Hope, Dickinson).

I still have family time with my kids before I head back to Connecticut tomorrow but I am opening the floor for other comments.

The NCAA’s regional rankings, through Week 9. Records are regional record, followed by overall record.

East Region
1. Hobart 7-0 7-0
2. Wilkes 8-0 8-0
3. Cortland State 7-0 8-0
4. Springfield 7-1 7-1
5. St. John Fisher 8-1 8-1
6. Union 6-1 6-1
7. Ithaca 6-1 7-1
8. Alfred 6-2 6-2
9. Curry 9-0 9-0
10. Rowan 4-1 5-2

North
1. Mount Union 8-0 8-0
2. Mount St. Joseph 8-0 8-0
3. Concordia (Wis.) 9-0 9-0
4. Capital 7-1 7-1
5. Wheaton 7-1 7-1
6. Franklin 7-1 7-1
7. Baldwin-Wallace 6-2 6-2
8. North Central 6-2 6-2
9. Wabash 6-2 6-2
10. Wittenberg 5-2 5-3

South
1. Wesley 5-0 8-0
2. Trinity (Texas) 7-1 7-1
3. Mary Hardin-Baylor 6-2 6-2
4. Hardin-Simmons 6-1 6-1
5. Carnegie Mellon 7-0 8-0
6. Dickinson 7-1 7-1
7. Washington and Jefferson 6-1 7-1
8. Christopher Newport 6-1 6-2
9. Averett 6-2 6-2
10. Washington and Lee 6-2 6-2

West
1. UW-Whitewater 7-0 8-0
2. St. John’s 9-0 9-0
3. Central 7-0 8-0
4. Whitworth 7-0 8-0
5. UW-La Crosse 4-1 6-1
6. Occidental 7-0 7-0
7. Linfield 4-1 5-2
8. Bethel 7-1 7-1
9. St. Norbert 8-0 9-0
10. Wartburg 7-1 7-1