D3football Daily Dose

Keith McMillan and I and a guest each week run down the games to watch in several categories — some standard, some off the wall. But this is just the start of the conversation, as we open up the Daily Dose for your thoughts and comments.

This week’s guest is back to the top of the rotation, as Gordon Mann, D3sports.com’s deputy managing editor, rejoins us.

Continue along with us here on the blog and on the message boards on game day, especially if you can’t make it to a game yourself, and then we’ll be back Monday with our weekly podcast, wrapping up the previous weekend’s action.

Game of the week
Gordon’s take: Last week we had “de facto championship games,” but this week we have a team who can actually clinch a playoff spot when St. Norbert hosts Ripon. If the Green Knights win, they are MWC champions and the first team officially into the 2007 playoffs. A Red Hawks’ victory wouldn’t be quite as definitive but it would give them first place with games against Grinnell (2-5) and Lawrence (2-4) remaining. If last year’s game was any indication, this also has the potential to be a very entertaining game. In 2006 the teams had a see-saw battle swing in favor of St. Norbert when Zach Behnke returned a blocked punt to give the Green Knights the lead for good.

Keith’s take: Pacific Lutheran (5-1) at Linfield (3-2). It’s among a handful of games Saturday with conference title and playoff implications. I like this game best because of the rivalry that’s developed between the two recent national champions (Lutes, 1999; Wildcats, 2004) and the fact that the “Catdome” should be rocking for this one. Northwest Conference teams are behind the 8-ball in the Pool B picture, so the loser here is virtually eliminated from playoff contention.

Pat’s take: Bridgewater (5-1, 1-1) at Emory and Henry (4-2, 1-1). What could be better than a league’s old guard and new guard playing for their playoff lives in front of an unbelievable number of fans? Emory and Henry lost at Randolph-Macon last week but faces Washington and Lee, Catholic and Guilford to close the season. If the Wasps can get by this game, they still have a shot at the automatic bid. Bridgewater just held Guilford 23 points below its season average, but then again, Emory and Henry doesn’t pass nearly as often.

Surprisingly close
Gordon’s take: No. 7 Central at Dubuque is interesting, but we can’t be surprised when the Dutch play a close game. So I’ll go with the Rhine River Cup battle where No. 5 Capital travels to Otterbein. This has all the makings of a trap game – rivalry game, favored team on the road with a huge match-up next week, injury plagued-offense. Capital is 27-5 since the beginning of the 2005 season, with four losses to Mount Union and one to Otterbein. Maybe quarterback Wade Bartholomew has a bit of a let down coming off last week’s three touchdown showing against Ohio Northern. Maybe the Cardinals keep it close early and gain confidence as the game goes on. That doesn’t mean the Crusaders won’t win. But I don’t think they do so by more than two scores against a .500 team.

Keith’s take: Mt. St. Joseph at Manchester. When your season points toward one game, as the Lions’ has, and you lose it, a hangover is difficult to avoid. The 3-3 Spartans are in the midst of a good season, but this is a game 5-1 Mt. St. Joseph shouldn’t lose. They won’t, but it might take a few quarters to realize this is an opportunity to get back on track and stay near the top of the conference in case Franklin stumbles rather than a meaningless game.

Pat’s take: No. 2 Mary Hardin-Baylor at Mississippi College. Admittedly, the Choctaws have given up a fair amount of points to the good offenses they’ve seen, and the Crusaders have more than just a good offense. And yes, Mary Hardin-Baylor has won 18 consecutive American Southwest Conference games. And they only allowed 14 points to Hardin-Simmons, on the road, while MC allowed 45 at home. So before I talk myself out of it, yes, this is a game that might actually be worth the $8.95 to watch it on the Web. After you get done watching the Springfield/St. John Fisher game on D3Cast for free, of course.

Most likely Top 25 team to lose
Gordon’s take: No. 22 New Jersey has held every opponent to 15 points or less this year, but they’ll have their hands full with Western Connecticut. The Colonials are scoring 26.7 per game this year including showings with 44, 41, 27 and 26 points and running back Wayne Neal leads the NJAC in rushing yards per game. If Western Connecticut turns this into shoot-out can the Lions’ offense keep up?

Keith’s take: It’s hard to go against No. 8 St. John Fisher in a game that looked like it would be much bigger than it’s turned out to be, but Springfield is still dangerous, especially on its home turf. With the Pride and the Cardinals joining Hartwick a loss behind Alfred in the Empire 8 race, it’s do-or-die for both teams here. If the Pride, who played five of their first six on the road, have any, this could be a toss-up.

Pat’s take: St. Olaf. Maybe the Oles have slid a bit high, at No. 13, after the losses around them the past couple of weeks. Bethel is hardly reduced to playing spoiler at this point – after all, the Royals (Bethies?) are still unbeaten in the MIAC and host St. John’s at the end of the season. This league has three-way tie potential still – and by the way, that’s what we projected in Kickoff.

They’ll be on your radar
Gordon’s take: Albright, who has barely registered a blip on the national radar at 5-1. On one hand, the Lions haven’t beaten anyone with a record better than 2-4. On the other, they were unlikely to be in this situation after last year’s 2-8 performance. Sophomore quarterback Tanner Kelly seems like an All-American in the making (1,561 yards, 13 interceptions) after his stellar freshman campaign. But he and Albright will have the toughest test of this year against All-American in the present Kyle Follweiler and a Wilkes defense that is still very good.

Keith’s take: The IIAC top four. Finally some clarity in one of the nation’s most muddled conference races. Central goes to Dubuque, after both teams beat Coe by a touchdown, while the Kohawks attempt to save face at Wartburg, who has already beaten Dubuque. We could emerge from Saturday with a three-way tie at the top of the conference, or we could emerge with a clear leader, with Central at Wartburg still looming Nov. 10. Montclair State at Cortland State is also worth watching for the help it’ll provide in figuring out the NJAC race.

Pat’s take: Illinois Wesleyan. The Titans face three serious tests in their final four games, though facing Elmhurst at home might be the least painful of the three. (The others: at North Central and home against Wheaton.) If they don’t win this game, it could be a painful downward spiral and a .500 finish, but a win, followed by a presumptive win at North Park, puts IWU at 6-2, 5-0 heading to Naperville on Nov. 3.

Smallest margin of victory — Mount Union, Mary Hardin-Baylor or UW-Whitewater?
Gordon’s take: I picked Baldwin-Wallace as the team most likely to keep No. 1 Mount Union in check in the preseason but the Purple Juggernaut’s offense has me thinking otherwise now. Mississippi College gave up 42 and 34 to Hardin-Simmons and Louisiana College, both of whom got stomped by Mary Hardin-Baylor. So I guess that leaves me with the Warhawks for the smallest margin of victory.

Keith’s take: On paper, the nation’s three top-ranked teams face tough conference tests. Before giving up 62 points to Heidelberg and Muskingum the past two weeks, Baldwin-Wallace looked like a defensive juggernaut that might give Mount Union some trouble. Looking at the margins of victory for the three teams, using their average score (60-4 for MUC, 55-13 or UMHB and 30.5-14.5 for Whitewater) and the Warhawks are the only pick here, especially since they play No. 20 UW-Stevens Point.

Pat’s take: Mary Hardin-Baylor. UW-Stevens Point has had a great season so far but their three non-conference opponents (Webber International, Iowa Wesleyan and Waldorf) are a combined 3-18, and their three conference wins are each by three points against 2-4 teams. That game won’t be as close as the previous three UWSP conference games.

Playoff hopeful who sees its bubble burst
Gordon’s take: Springfield still has a faint chance at the postseason, despite its 3-3 record. But the combination of a Pride defense that’s giving up lots of points and a St. John Fisher offense that’s scoring them doesn’t bode well. They’ll join UW-La Crosse as a team ranked in the preseason Top 10 who will the playoffs. I also give No. 13 St. Olaf the edge at home in a game that would end Bethel’s chances at postseason return.

Keith’s take: Plymouth State. With the Panthers and NEFC heavyweight Curry each undefeated heading into Saturday’s game, the loser falls behind in the Boyd Division and will likely miss out on an invite to play Coast Guard in the NEFC title game. The winner of that game gets the NCAA bid, while no NEFC team has been an at-large selection.

Pat’s take: Wilkes. Despite being 2-4 overall, the Colonels are 2-1 in the MAC. It’s just not clear what kind of team is going to show up for Wilkes this weekend.

Winless team most likely to change fortune
Gordon’s take: King’s (0-6) had a nice comeback against Albright last week when third-string quarterback Blaine Fox gave the Monarchs a spark. Lebanon Valley (1-5) has to be pretty disappointed with how 2007 has shaped up, considering the Flying Dutchmen hoped to build on last year’s 6-4 finish with at least an ECAC appearance. King’s has been close to a W three times this year and I think they break through here.

Keith’s take: Hiram (0-6) goes to Denison (1-5) coming off an encouraging performance at Wooster, where the Terriers lost 24-17. I also like 0-6 Bluffton to get over the hump against Anderson (1-5) after a pair of 7-point road losses.

Pat’s take: Averett (0-6, 0-3 USA South). The Cougars travel to Greensboro (1-5, 0-3), who might be more fired up than they were in a 33-7 loss at Shenandoah. Regardless, it’s hard to believe Averett, even losing as much as it did from last year’s team, is still winless.

The NCAA has, thankfully, moved away from its flawed Quality of Wins Index to incorporate more relevant numbers into its strength of schedule calculation.

The only variation the NCAA made to this formula over the years it was in place was to change the name, rather than make the formula work better. Now at least we have a wholesale change.

SOS will now be determined using a schools’ opponents’ winning percentage and their opponents’ opponents’ winning percentage. That is, not only will it measure a team’s opponents record, but the teams that opponent played in order to get to that record.

There are too many numbers to post here. They have their own page. Click here to read, but feel free to comment.

Keith McMillan and Pat Coleman did a whirlwind tour of Chicago on Saturday, visiting six stadiums, talking to five coaches and seeing one and two-half games. The night culminated in a great Division III atmosphere at Wheaton, where the lights, turf and new video board provided the perfect frame for a great game.

Keith and Pat talk about what they saw and what happened elsewhere in Week 7 in this week’s Around the Nation Podcast.

 

 D3football.com's Around the Nation Podcast [13:31m]: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

The leaves are turning color from green to orange and red, the breeze is a bit cooler, grass football fields are transforming from crisp green to slightly muddy brown, Pat and Keith are on the road and that means only one thing; it’s another Division III football Saturday in October.

With most of the D3football.com staff on the road this weekend, I’ll start off our weekly Saturday blog live from the D3football.com studios. Post your thoughts on this week’s games right here, from wherever you might be watching or listening to the action. All the live audio and live stats links can be found on the scoreboard link on the left hand side of the page.

And, don’t forget D3football.com and D3cast are under the lights tonight in Milton, Mass. for the East Region “Game of the Week.” It’s undefeated Curry hosting Endicott at 7:00 PM. The Colonels look to improve to 7-0 on the season while the Gulls are hoping to knock off their rivals from the NEFC Boyd Division. Todd Bloniarz and Derek Falvy will call the game.

Pat Coleman and Keith McMillan will be joining us this afternoon from the Chicagoland area with updates from Elmhurst-North Central and later Wheaton-Augustana. For more on Keith’s latest trip to Abilene, Texas; read this week’s Around the Nation column.

The floor is now open, albeit a little early. Enjoy today’s games.

Keith McMillan and I and a guest each week run down the games to watch in several categories — some standard, some off the wall. But this is just the start of the conversation, as we open up the Daily Dose for your thoughts and comments.

Continue along with us here on the blog and on the message boards on game day (we’ll be in Chicagoland), especially if you can’t make it to a game yourself, and then we’ll be back Monday with our weekly podcast, wrapping up the previous weekend’s action.

Kevin LaForest, a former Brockport State broadcaster and occasional postseason live score tracker for us here at D3football.com, known as pg04 on the message boards, is our special guest analyst for this week.

Game of the Week
Keith’s take: Franklin at Mt. St. Joseph. We’ve never seen the Heartland earn two playoff bids, even after Franklin lost 21-14 to automatic qualifier and finished 9-1 last season. So if tradition holds, only one of these teams will make the field of 32, via the AQ. It’s basically a single-elimination playoff game, especially for the Grizzlies, who lost 35-33 at Wabash earlier this year. It could be more of the same from the Lions, a three-time reigning conference champ, or a historic day for the Grizzlies, who haven’t won a conference title since 1981 and have never made the playoffs.

Kevin’s take: No. 11 Ohio Northern at No. 7 Capital. This match-up is the only between two top 25 teams this week, and will probably decide which team gets what could be considered the automatic Pool C bid for the OAC runner-up. The Polar bears were crushed at home last weekend by Mount Union but can make that disappear with a victory this weekend. ONU quarterback Jeff Pankratz will need a better performance after going 13-for-31 for 133 yards last week, while the running game will attempt to get back on the plus side. The crusaders are coming in on an exact opposite feeling after crushing the Blue Streaks of John Carroll 37-13 last week. Their defense was monstrous getting nine sacks and by holding the Blue Streaks to negative yards rushing. The team (if either) that gets out to a quick start will have a great opportunity to win the game.

Pat’s take: Wittenberg at No. 14 Wabash. Wittenberg seems to desperately want to be a factor again in the North Region and has pounded Earlham and Wooster (combined 2-8) to the tune of 131-7. A 13-0 loss to Capital in Week 1 raised eyebrows at the time but seems more reasonable now given what Capital has done since. The Tigers haven’t won a postseason game since 2002, and that was against the Heartland Conference, 1-8 in the playoffs in the automatic bid era. Wabash settled on Matt Hudson at quarterback last week, though he threw for just 129 yards on 23 attempts at Allegheny. Should be a bitter battle.

Surprisingly close
Keith’s take: Concordia-Moorhead at St. Olaf; Hardin-Simmons at East Texas Baptist. The Oles have to get over the hangover from losing a one-point game at conference power St. John’s. If the Oles don’t make it happen right away, the Cobbers could lure them into a shootout: They’ve scored 34 or more in five of six games in their 4-2 season so far. Meanwhile, Hardin-Simmons must get past the idea of being out of the playoff picture and likely the ASC race for the first time in a decade. ETBU is in first place at 4-0, 4-2, but the 2-1, 2-3 Cowboys have the superior talent and should eke one out after they get on board with the idea of playing out the rest of the season as hard as possible. Teams that have taken beatings at their hands for years will be looking for payback if they don’t.

Kevin’s take: No. 3 UW-Whitewater vs. UW-Oshkosh. Well we all know how wild the wild, wild WIAC can be. It appears that any team in the top 4 of the conference has a legitimate shot of making a real run. Whitewater’s lone loss came to an out of division opponent, while Oshkosh lost, but only by 1, to UW-Eau Claire. Justin Beaver of the Warhawks, one of the best in Division III at the running back position, will certainly make it difficult at home. It’s also UW-W’s homecoming game. All this aside, Oshkosh has a fairly potent back of their own. Andy Moriarty has rushed for 10 touchdowns and 721 yards in 5 games this season and could give the Warhawks fits. In the end, though, Whitewater will probably extend their 17 game WIAC winning streak.

Pat’s take: Concordia (Wis.) at Concordia (Ill.). The homestanding Cougars already have more wins than in any season since D3football.com’s inception in 1999. While beating the Falcons is a long shot, this should be a tighter ballgame.

Most likely top 25 team to get upset
Keith’s take: No. 6 Central. Not that losing to visiting Coe would be a major stunner in Iowa. What’s stunning is how the banged-up Dutch keep getting it done. They were outgained for the fourth time this season last week but beat Simpson by a touchdown. Their scores aren’t of the typical dominant top 10 variety, but that’s Central’s m.o.; they aren’t simply playing down to the level of their competition. We wouldn’t have to worry about that with the Kohawks anyway, since they’re among the IIAC’s more talented teams, especially defensively, where they hadn’t allowed more than 10 points in a game until a 28-21 OT loss vs. Dubuque last week.

Kevin’s take: No. 5 Wheaton. Pat picked them last week, and I’m going to pick them again this week. They kind of feel like Wisconsin did last week in the No. 5 position of the Football Bowl Subdivision (or I-A to normal people). Wheaton was able to squeak by the challenge of North Central last week after being down 17-0 at the half. Though they do have being at home on their side, Augustana challenged Illinois Wesleyan to a 22-19 loss on the road. If Augustana can keep it close and withstand the first half homecoming charge, I believe they’ll have a good shot at pulling the upset and making a mess of the CCIW. Also, not many other Top 25 teams are actually playing unranked teams that threaten them in the manner that I feel Augustana does to the Thunder.

Pat’s take: No. 22 UW-Stevens Point. Maybe taking a WIAC team to pull an upset is like picking the low-hanging fruit, but those three NAIA opponents the Pointers started the season with are a combined 3-16, and one of those wins came when two of the opponents faced off. UW-Stout is “just” 2-3, but the Blue Devils’ game at Whitworth was a bigger challenge than anything UW-Stevens Point has seen to date.

They’ll be on your radar
Keith’s take: Illinois Wesleyan. Pat and I will be in CCIW country this weekend and will see four of the conference’s top teams. The Titans aren’t among them, but they are among the conference leaders at 3-2, 2-0 (the non-conference losses were to Coe and MSJ). With wins over Augustana and Carthage already, and Wheaton — the only other team unbeaten in CCIW play — not on the schedule until Nov. 10, the Titans, 3-7 the past three seasons, could make an interesting run, starting Saturday against Millikin.

Kevin’s take: Rowan. Ah-ha. Finally time to mention an eastern team. Perennial eastern powerhouse Rowan is smarting after a disappointing 10-7 conference loss in which their opponent, The College of New Jersey, didn’t score an offensive touchdown. This week, they take on the Buffalo State Bengals in an important NJAC tilt. Rowan is currently 3-2 (1-1 in NJAC) with close losses to Christopher Newport and the previously mentioned TCNJ Lions. However, their wins over Western Connecticut, Wilkes, and Widener have been fairly impressive. The Profs must get back on the winning track if they want any chance at winning the conference and getting into the playoffs to once again become “beasts of the east.” As it is right now, they are essentially 2 games behind TCNJ due to last week’s loss. The question is: Will they fold up, or will the young team show some heart and play out the rest of the season hard?

Pat’s take: Case Western Reserve. At 5-0 but untested, the Spartans have a shot at leaving Carnegie Mellon on the ropes for even an ECAC postseason game. After winning their first 11 games last year, the Tartans are currently 2-3. For Case, this is one of only two chances to impress the playoff committee all season. (They host Wash U in Week 10.) Case’s opponents so far: Oberlin, Denison, Kenyon, Wooster and Gallaudet.

Which conference race will clear up the most?
Keith’s take: The ODAC, but only because it eventually has to. All seven conference teams have at least two more overall wins than losses, and six go head-to-head Saturday, led by Randolph-Macon (2-0, 5-1) hosting Emory and Henry (1-0, 4-1). It’s just like old times for the Yellow Jackets and Wasps, who used to battle for the conference title yearly in the 90s. It’s also the middle of a four-game homestretch for R-MC. One of those two teams will be the last undefeated in ODAC play after Saturday, while four teams who might have more talent than either of them will battle to keep pace. Washington and Lee, 1-1, 3-1 and the defending conference champ, heads to 2-1, 4-2 Hampden-Sydney, while Guilford and Bridgewater meet in Virginia with identical 0-1, 4-1 records.

Kevin’s take: The NCAC. The conference championship is for all intents and purposes up for grabs as Wabash (5-0) and Wittenberg (4-1) go at it Little Giant Stadium in Crawfordsville, Indiana. Both teams are undefeated in the conference and while Oberlin is also undefeated, they will probably not end up being a serious threat. None of the one-loss teams seem poised to make a run either. Should be a pretty fun game between the two teams.

Pat’s take: The CCIW. With four of the top five teams in the league standings facing each other (Augustana at Wheaton, North Central at Elmhurst), some things should begin to take shape. At the very least, Keith and I will get a clearer picture since we’ll be at both games. Surprising Illinois Wesleyan faces Millikin, which has its win against North Park but not much else.

Which non-Division III team is most likely to win this weekend, Trinity Bible at Principia, Faulkner at Huntingdon, or Southern Virginia at Frostburg State?
Keith’s take: I don’t particularly like any of the non-D3s’ chances this week, especially given that Trinity Bible beat Principia twice last year in overtime. The 0-6 Panthers’ misfortune against its most beatable opponent can’t continue … can it?

Kevin’s take: Southern Virginia. Isn’t Trinity Bible the team that lost by 105 points? Otherwise, I think both Faulkner and Southern Virginia will win. However, Southern Virginia is the team that is most likely to win as Frostburg State has not be able to do anything on offense, and has not been able to stop anyone on defense. The Bobcats’ troubles don’t end this week.

Pat’s take: I can’t take Southern Oregon over struggling Linfield, so I’m going with Southern Virginia as well.

There were some puzzling results on Friday and Saturday, and while Keith McMillan and Pat Coleman try to make sense of them, you can listen along in this week’s Around the Nation podcast. What are the prospects now for upsettees Trinity (Texas), Wartburg and Baldwin-Wallace?

Keith returned from a trip to Texas this weekend and gives us his take on Mary Hardin-Baylor. Are the No. 2 Crusaders the team that can challenge Mount Union? Hear Keith’s take. Plus, we explore some of the unlikely names at the top of conference standings.

 

 D3football.com Around the Nation Podcast [18:16m]: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

Here’s where we tell you, and you tell us, whatever you’re seeing or hearing during Saturday’s games.

I’m live here in Abilene, Texas, currently at McMurry for homecoming against East Texas Baptist. Though the Tigers are coming in off three consecutive wins, and McMurry has lost three in a row by 23 points or more, the Maroon and White (preferred local terminology after the surname Indians was dropped in the wake of NCAA pressure) is off to a fast start, scoring on a 58-yard TD run by Rashon Lewis, a junior transfer from Mount St. Joseph. They already picked off a pass in Tigers territory and are threatening again. Techinically, at 3-0 in the ASC, ETBU is in first in the conference, though most people here are aware that the game just underway across down has major title implications. No word yet from Mary Hardin-Baylor’s game at Hardin-Simmons, but keep an eye on the Dose here and the D3 scoreboard.

Some interesting scores so far around the country (Mount Union up 23-0 early, Randolph-Macon up 14-7 vs. Carnegie Mellon, La Crosse perhaps hung over from last week’s stunner, down 21-9 vs. UW-Eau Claire), as well as yesterday (TCNJ beating Rowan). What are people seeing and hearing?

P.S. McMurry now up 13-0.

Keith McMillan and I and a guest each week run down the games to watch in several categories — some standard, some off the wall. But this is just the start of the conversation, as we open up the Daily Dose for your thoughts and comments.

Continue along with us here on the blog and on the message boards on game day, especially if you can’t make it to a game yourself, and then we’ll be back Monday with our weekly Podcast, wrapping up the previous weekend’s action.

Paul Schreel, an Ohio Northern grad and occasional D3football.com broadcaster, is our guest commentator, providing his reality check for Week 6.

Game of the Week
Keith’s take: No. 1 Mount Union at No. 9 Ohio Northern. There are many here, from coast to coast (Redlands/Occidental). But anytime there’s a chance mighty Mount Union might get a test, that’s one to watch. The No. 1 Purple Raiders come in off four superb offensive performances, scoring 64.3 points per game, while No. 9 Ohio Northern has allowed just nine points per game. Add in the subtext of the Polar Bears being the last to defeat Mount Union, in the ‘05 regular season, and we’ve got ourselves the game of the week.

Paul’s take: No. 1 Mount Union at No. 9 Ohio Northern. Four matchups feature two ranked opponents but there’s none bigger than Mount Union and Ohio Northern. This may be the deepest and most talented team Mount Union has fielded. MUC ranks first nationally in total offense, total defense, scoring and countless other categories I’m sure. But Ohio Northern leads Division III in turnover margin and has more team sacks (23) than any other program in Division III. ONU will need to get a lot more yards out of RJ Meadows than the 11.8 yards per game MUC averages on defense. ONU will need to win the turnover margin and limit the effectiveness of either wide receiver Pierre Garcon or running back Nate Kmic (a tall order to say the least).

Pat’s take: No. 24 John Carroll at No. 8 Capital. I’d love to go with No. 9 vs. No. 1, but Mount Union has blown out too many great teams for me to have much confidence in that really being a game. But Capital’s offense is in pieces and John Carroll came up big on Homecoming last week. If they can do the same on the road, then the OAC is down to one possible Pool C team — ONU — unless someone can beat Mount Union.

Surprisingly close game
Keith’s take: No. 2 Mary Hardin-Baylor at No. 21 Hardin-Simmons. A lot of people like a blowout here, because the Cru has been so powerful and the Cowboys can’t seem to stop anyone from scoring. HSU opponents have done most of their damage through the air though, and the Cru won’t pass much no matter the situation. The Cowboys, meanwhile, have finally settled on a quarterback. Justin Feaster passed for 495 yards last week. I could be way off, but there’s something about knowing the season’s on the line — and it is for the Cowboys — that draws out the best in teams.

Paul’s take: Wabash at Allegheny. Wabash has been a bit banged up, especially at QB with senior Dustin Huff only playing in the opener (and putting up 477 yards and 4 TD’s). The Little Giants have managed nicely in his absence but they face a very physical Allegheny team and travel all the way east to Meadville, Pa., for their longest road trip of the regular season. The Gators haven’t exactly blown the doors off the competition in their three wins but they do play Wabash tough every year and this one could go down to the wire. Wabash may be faster and deeper but the Gators will fight to the final whistle.

Pat’s take: DePauw at Birmingham-Southern. The Panthers started camp to much fanfare for their 120-plus recruits, beat the Mississippi College JV and barely lost to Rhodes in their opener. Even if Jeremiah Marks were to play he might take some time to get back up to speed and allow Birmingham-Southern to keep the game within reach.

Most likely Top 25 team to get upset
Keith’s take: No. 15 Salisbury. Wheaton (at North Central) and Redlands (at Occidental) made plenty of sense here, but Geneva’s made a little noise as it transitions to Division III. With two sure wins (Morrisville State, Becker) to follow before the season-defining clash with Wesley, the Sea Gulls could get caught looking ahead.

Pat’s take: No. 5 Wheaton. Kyle Bradley and/or Sean Norris will be getting his first taste of the Little Brass Bell game and the two were sacked a combined seven times last week against Millikin. North Central will have a first-year starter at quarterback as well, but has the home field and perhaps a bit of a chip on its shoulder.

Paul’s take: No. 4 St. John’s. I feel like I’m really going out on a limb here but it might just be St. John’s. St. John’s is always a class act but they were less than impressive last Saturday versus a 2-2 Carleton team. STJ didn’t score its first points until nearly halfway through the fourth quarter and can’t afford such a sluggish start this Saturday. St. Olaf is an offensive force so far this year ranking fourth in the nation in total offense, passing and scoring. Can the Johnnies defense stop the Oles’ offense? The game’s in Collegeville and I’m sure the Oles would love to ruin the homecoming festivities.

They’ll be on your radar
Keith’s take: My alma mater Randolph-Macon. In a rare show of favoritism, my Yellow Jackets (4-1) play a big game for the first time in years, as ‘06 playoff participant Carnegie Mellon (2-2) visits for homecoming. I’ll be in Texas serving the greater Division III community, but my heart will be in Va. thinking maybe, just maybe, my boys are legit.

Paul’s take: Occidental. They might just be a candidate for another top 25 spoiler as they take on 25th ranked Redlands at home Saturday night. This team’s gone 31-4 in the last 3+ seasons and squeaked out a 28-27 win at Claremont-Mudd-Scripps last weekend. I just don’t know if Redlands has what it takes to beat the Tigers on their home turf. Sure Redlands is 3-0 but one of their wins is over Haskell Indian Nations (WHO?!?!?). The balanced Occidental offensive attack might be too much for the Bulldogs.

Pat’s take: Carnegie Mellon. No, just kidding, Keith. Redlands. These guys are about as under the radar as you can get and still be in the Top 25. Admittedly, last week’s 12-0 win against Chapman doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in the offense, which put up 24 points against Whitworth in the season opener. Redlands’ Haskell Indian Nations win isn’t against an impressive opponent, but then again, Occidental’s opening three opponents are 1-10.

Who has a bigger weekend, Jarvis Thrasher vs. HSU, Nate Kmic vs. Ohio Northern or Matt Penz vs. St. John’s?
Keith’s take: Kmic. Larry Kehres leans on him in big games, and we could see the Purple Raiders’ all-time rushing leader get 30 more carries in an attempt to wear down a pretty good defense.

Paul’s take: Waynesburg freshman running back Robert Heller. I know I’m cheating but this kid leads all of D-III in rushing and should clear the 1,000 yard mark in his fifth collegiate game. I don’t care about the fact that he’s getting almost 40 carries a game; he’s a beast.

Of the three choices, I hope it’s not Nate Kmic. If he has the biggest weekend, it means MUC controls the game and this spotlight game won’t be much of a contest. I’ll go with Jarvis Thrasher simply because he’s done big things in his first two meetings with HSU. Why change now? To control the clock and limit the effectiveness of HSU’s Justin Feaster, the Crusaders will give Thrasher plenty of touches. He feasts in order to table Feaster’s effectiveness. I can’t believe I went there.

Pat’s take: Matt Penz. But that doesn’t mean St. Olaf comes out of Collegeville with a victory.

Who is more likely to stay unbeaten, Pacific Lutheran, UW-Stevens Point or Coe?
Keith’s take: UW-Stevens Point. Although Coe is the only one with a home game here, UW-Platteville, the Pointers? opponent, comes in reeling from three consecutive defeats and may prove an easier mark than either Dubuque or Whitworth.

Paul’s take: UW-Stevens Point. PLU plays at Whitworth which is no easy task. Coe plays at home and has only given up 23 points on the season. UW-SP plays on the road in the WIAC (never a fun proposition) but they face a UW-Platteville team that hasn’t been able to get things together yet this season. UW-SP hasn’t lost to Platteville in the 21st century. That has to count for something.

Pat’s take: Pacific Lutheran. It’s all about the mustaches. Plus, we’re sending Adam Johnson out for the Oct. 20 Pacfic Lutheran/Linfield game and I want to make sure it’s as meaningful as possible!

Around 6 p.m., Saturday looked like an interesting day, but nothing spectacular. Then the UW-La Crosse/UW-Whitewater game turned, St. John Fisher went down and Willamette kicked Linfield’s unbeaten D-III record to the curb.

In the end, a lot of news at the top of the poll. This week’s Around the Nation podcast focuses on those games, but also deals with Hampden-Sydney, Trinity (Conn.), Williams, TCNJ, Capital, Mount Union, Redlands, Occidental and the great games in the upcoming week.

 

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