D3football Daily Dose

Looking like a tough weekend weatherwise in parts of the bracket this weekend.

I, for example, am projecting missed extra points in the North and West regional finals because of weather. But those are only a point or two either direction.

In last week’s picks, Keith and I both went 8-for-8 and Gordon was 7-for-8. Gordon got his in just under the gun, in a comment post eight minutes before kickoff.

Mount Union 59, New Jersey 7. Closest pick, Gordon (Mount Union 42-7). None picked TCNJ with more than seven points.
St. John Fisher 38, Curry 7. Closest pick, Pat (SJF 31-10). All three had St. John Fisher in the 30s.
Central 37, St. John’s 7. Closest pick, Pat (barely, Central 27-24).
Bethel 21, UW-Eau Claire 12. Closest pick, Gordon (Bethel 21-17).
Mary Hardin-Baylor 64, N.C. Wesleyan 0. Closest pick, Pat (UMHB 48-21).
Wesley 38, Muhlenberg 21. Closest pick, Pat (Wesley 28-20).
UW-Whitewater 59, North Central 28. Closest pick, Pat (UWW 38-17).
Wabash 38, Case Western Reserve 23. Closest pick, Pat (Wabash 30-19).

Here’s our take on the regional finals.

South Region
Pat: Mary Hardin-Baylor 41, Wesley 27
Keith: Wesley 34, Mary Hardin-Baylor 31 (OT)
Gordon: Mary Hardin-Baylor 28 Wesley 20

West Region
Pat: Central 20, Bethel 13
Keith: Central 29, Bethel 16
Gordon: Bethel 24 Central 21 (OT)

North Region
Pat: UW-Whitewater 34, Wabash 20
Keith: UW-Whitewater 44, Wabash 21
Gordon: UW-Whitewater 30 Wabash 17

East Region
Pat: Mount Union 40, St. John Fisher 17
Keith: Mount Union 45, St. John Fisher 27
Gordon: Mount Union 35 St. John Fisher 21

In 2005 Delaware Valley faced the unenviable task of replacing three players who were the best at their position in school history – All American quarterback Adam Knoblauch, all-time leading rusher Steve Cook and All American center Damien Ciecwisz.

Knoblauch and Cook received far more attention than Ciecwisz, but their impact on the Aggies was no greater than the man dubbed C-Wiz. He anchored a very good line that ran and pass blocked for a balanced offense. He was so accurate on shotgun snaps that you forgot they could be tricky until he was gone. And the next season one coach remarked that Ciecwisz, not the more lauded quarterback or running back, might be the toughest guy to replace.

Centers are so critical to a team’s success. Ask a running team that relies on its line to open holes up the middle. Or ask a passing team whose potent attack can be short circuited by a shotgun snap that’s a tad long or a tad short, granting the defense the half-second they need to get to the quarterback. The Center is the only player other than the quarterback who touches the ball on every snap.

And yet, when putting together this year’s All Region teams, there weren’t many centers nominated in some regions for the honor. Just one center was nominated in the East. Honorees were sparse at the conference level, too. The three centers named All Conference in the NJAC were honorable mention, not first or second team. There were no centers on the first teams for the Liberty League or MAC. In fact, there were no centers selected in the MAC at all.

NOTE: Thanks to Saxon54 for a correction. The Empire 8 did have a center on its first team, Mike Callahan of Alfred. I apologize for the mistake.

Last year we mentioned that the tight end seems like an endangered species in Division III. We know centers are plentiful and there’s plenty evidence of some very good ones, like Mount Union’s Eric Safran who is up for the Draddy Trophy.

Alright, so, the previous blog post has devolved into a St. John Fisher/Mount Union back and forth and there is some good discussion there about Mary Hardin-Baylor and Wesley.

But there are two other games that are taking place on Saturday as well, and we’re sure people want to talk about them without having to wade through all the other so-called discussion.

Three West teams remain alive out of the original seven selected, with Wabash crashing the party in the North Region to represent the North in its own bracket. I’ll move some of the related comments over here but want to get people started, especially on the teams getting out from under St. John’s shadow.

So Keith McMillan and I were on the record as not being surprised at the eight teams which won in Saturday’s second round.

The margins of victory? Definitely a difference. Does it matter that Bethel/UW-Eau Claire was so close? Which conferences made big leaps forward in Week 12 and 13? Who leaves the second round of the playoffs disappointed and who leaves them with an optimistic outlook?

We’ve got two rematches and two new matchups. Now that we’re down to eight teams, who will benefit the most from the reshuffled bracket? And where will we find ourselves on Saturday?

More in the ATN podcast.

 

 Around the Nation Podcast [19:54m]: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

Leftover turkey…check.

Saturday afternoon sweats….check.

Eight great games to decide the regional finalists…check.

Pat Coleman and Keith McMillan went over the (Susquehanna) river and Frank Rossi and Mark Robinson went through the (Upstate NY) woods to bring you Muhlenberg-Wesley and St. John Fisher-Curry respectively on the NCAA Sports broadcasts.

The first game will be a match-up between the underrated, but very good Muhlenberg defense and a Wesley offense with great speed on the outside. The second game will be a test whether Curry has anything left after last week’s blowout of Hartwick and whether SJF can be caught watching the scoreboard a little in anticipation of a rematch with you-know-who. And Mark Robinson immediately becomes the all-time leading rusher in D3sports broadcasting history with his debut today.

Interesting games all over the place, though. Let’s hear about them.

Second round of games, with just eight being played on Saturday, four at noon and four at 1 p.m.

Before we begin our predictions of the Week 13 games, let’s take a look back at Week 12.

Winners straight up: Keith McMillan 13-3, Pat Coleman 12-4, Gordon Mann 11-5. Of note, of course, all three missed on Curry beating Hartwick and Muhlenberg beating Salisbury. Keith redeemed his pick against UW-Eau Claire by calling N.C. Wesleyan over Washington and Jefferson.

Closest score on each game: Mount Union/Ithaca (42-18 actual score) goes to Pat (predicted 42-10), TCNJ/RPI (17-13) goes to Keith (13-10), Hartwick/Curry (21-42) goes to Gordon, if anyone (43-42), St. John Fisher/Hobart (24-7) goes to Gordon (31-28), Central/Olivet (38-17) goes to Pat (41-14), St. John’s/Redlands (41-13) goes to Pat (27-17), UW-Eau Claire/St. Norbert (24-21) goes to Pat (24-20), Bethel/Concordia Wis. (28-0) goes to Gordon (35-7), N.C. Wesleyan/W&J (35-34 OT) goes to Keith (38-35), Mary Hardin-Baylor/Trinity (52-23) goes to Keith (42-24), Muhlenberg/Salisbury (31-21) goes to Pat, if anyone (27-31), Wesley/Hampden-Sydney (45-17) goes to Keith (35-13), UW-Whitewater/Capital (34-14) goes to Keith (24-12), North Central/Franklin (44-42) goes to Pat (35-34), Wabash/Mt. St. Joseph (31-21) goes to Pat (30-21) and Case/Widener (21-20) goes to Keith (22-14).

Gordon Mann has been unable to join me and Keith because of his holiday travel schedule, and as it turns out, we have no dissenting view on any of this weekend’s games.

This week’s predictions
New Jersey at Mount Union
Pat: Mount Union 38, TCNJ 7
Keith: Mount Union 28, TCNJ 6

Curry at St. John Fisher
Pat: St. John Fisher 31, Curry 10
Keith: St. John Fisher 31, Curry 17

St. John’s at Central
Pat: Central 27, St. John’s 24 (OT)
Keith: Central 24, St. John’s 22

UW-Eau Claire at Bethel
Pat: Bethel 35, UW-Eau Claire 27
Keith: Bethel 27, UW-Eau Claire 17

N.C. Wesleyan at Mary Hardin-Baylor
Pat: Mary Hardin-Baylor 48, N.C. Wesleyan 21
Keith: Mary Hardin-Baylor 45, N.C. Wesleyan 35

Muhlenberg at Wesley
Pat: Wesley 28, Muhlenberg 20
Keith: Wesley 20, Muhlenberg 14

North Central at UW-Whitewater
Pat: UW-Whitewater 38, North Central 17
Keith: UW-Whitewater 31, North Central 14

Wabash at Case Western Reserve
Pat: Wabash 30, Case 19
Keith: Wabash 26, Case 19

Big question will be if quarterback Mitch Schaeuble plays for UW-Eau Claire after he ended last week’s game at St. Norbert with blurred vision. St. John’s, playing Central, kings of the comeback win, is most likely to make us regret both picking against them, followed by Muhlenberg.

I just wanted to wish everyone checking in a happy Thanksgiving from D3sports.com.

Keith McMillan and I will both be braving the wilds of I-95 in the infamous Northeast Corridor this weekend as he visits family in New Jersey and I head to the Philadelphia suburbs. Wish us luck.

Hope you and yours are having a happy and safe holiday, especially those of you serving overseas. Keep safe.

We’re not sure what was more exciting, the games themselves in the first round or the rush of 16 games all underway at once. It seemed like you couldn’t hit refresh without getting some interesting new tidbit, whether it was Curry pulling away early or TCNJ winning late, Salisbury tying Muhlenberg in the fourth quarter or N.C. Wesleyan taking W&J to overtime.

Plus, Keith and Pat, remember, both saw N.C. Wesleyan the first week of the season. Hear their hindsight on what each saw and how it colored their predictions from last week. And go through the rest of last week’s games and the ones coming up.

It’s our Around the Nation podcast, which continues through the Stagg Bowl.

 

 Around the Nation Podcast [24:58m]: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

That’s where Keith McMillan and I are this weekend — we’re here and you’re there … somewhere. Good week to be playing — if you’re in the tournament, you still have a chance.

Cold and a tad windy here for the Muhlenberg/Salisbury game. Great day for running the football and defense, which is what these teams are already known for.

We’ve previewed this weekend to death, so we’ll just throw it open for you guys. I’d have said y’all, but we’re north of the Mason-Dixon.

D3football.com editor and publisher Pat Coleman and I first took stabs at playoff scores on a meandering ride from our Northern Virginia home base to Thiel (Northwestern Pa.) for a 2005 first-round game against Johns Hopkins. Though we might have been just trying to kill time then, what we found when we compared our guesses, er, predictions turned out to be interesting enough to share. We gave it another try the next week and away we went, doing it again in 2006.

We brought the tradition back for a third year, bringing another wise mind, Gordon Mann, on board for the ride and making it our weekly Triple-take. The goal isn’t to prove which of the three of us is smartest or coolest — that’s obvious, right?. It’s to give fans from Curry to Redlands and everywhere in between an idea of what is expected to happen.

We’re well aware that this is the playoffs, when top teams face off in high-pressure situations, ensuring things don’t always go according to plan. It’s when respect is earned and minds are changed.

So cut us a break if we don’t pick your team by a satisfying score. There are reasons to like everyone that’s left, but our job is to be honest. You might find that even we can’t agree on which way these games will go.

We did not consult with each other at all — the three of us did our score predictions separately.

We’d like to hear what you think too, under two conditions: 1. We keep the bashing of each other to a bare minimum, and 2. You flesh out your thoughts a little bit.

Sound good? Then here goes, beginning in the East:

Ithaca at Mount Union
Coleman: Mount Union 42, Ithaca 10
Mann: Mount Union 42, Ithaca 7
McMillan: Mount Union 52, Ithaca 7

New Jersey at RPI
Coleman: TCNJ 14, RPI 6
Mann: RPI 21, TCNJ 17
McMillan: TCNJ 13, RPI 10

Hartwick at Curry
Coleman: Hartwick 32, Curry 28
Mann: Hartwick 43, Curry 42
McMillan: Hartwick 33, Curry 27, OT

Hobart at St. John Fisher
Coleman: St. John Fisher 38, Hobart 28
Mann: St. John Fisher 31, Hobart 28, OT
McMillan: St. John Fisher 35, Hobart 34

Olivet at Central
Coleman:Central 41, Olivet 14
Mann: Central 35, Olivet 21
McMillan: Central 40, Olivet 7

Redlands at St. John’s
Coleman: St. John’s 27, Redlands 17
Mann: St. John’s 28, Redlands 21
McMillan: St. John’s 21, Redlands 20

UW-Eau Claire at St. Norbert
Coleman: Eau Claire 24, St. Norbert 21
Mann: Eau Claire 21, St. Norbert 10
McMillan: St. Norbert 28, Eau Claire 21

Concordia (Wis.) at Bethel
Coleman: Bethel 41, Concordia 6
Mann: Bethel 35, Concordia 7
McMillan: Bethel 30, Concordia 13

North Carolina Wesleyan at Washington and Jefferson
Coleman: Washington and Jefferson 50, N.C. Wesleyan 16
Mann: Washington and Jefferson 31, N.C. Wesleyan 21
McMillan: N.C. Wesleyan 38, Washington and Jefferson 35

Trinity (Texas) at Mary Hardin-Baylor
Coleman: Mary Hardin-Baylor 41, Trinity 14
Mann: Mary Hardin-Baylor 35, Trinity 14
McMillan: Mary Hardin-Baylor 42, Trinity 24

Salisbury at Muhlenberg
Coleman: Salisbury 31, Muhlenberg 27
Mann: Salisbury 20, Muhlenberg 14
McMillan: Salisbury 20, Muhlenberg 14

Hampden-Sydney at Wesley
Coleman: Wesley 35, Hampden-Sydney 28
Mann: Wesley 28, Hampden-Sydney 21
McMillan: Wesley 35, Hampden-Sydney 13

Capital at UW-Whitewater
Coleman: Whitewater 20, Capital 13
Mann: Whitewater 21, Capital 7
McMillan: Whitewater 24, Capital 12

North Central at Franklin
Coleman: North Central 35, Franklin 34
Mann: North Central 31, Franklin 21
McMillan: North Central 33, Franklin 30, 2 OT

Mt. St. Joseph at Wabash
Coleman: Wabash 30, Mt. St. Joseph 21
Mann: Wabash 21, Mt. St. Joseph 10
McMillan: Wabash 34, Mt. St. Joseph 21

Widener at Case Western Reserve
Coleman: Widener 20, Case Western 17
Mann: Widener 17, Case Western 14, OT
McMillan: Case Western 22, Widener 14

Unanimous favorites: Mount Union, Hartwick, St. John Fisher, Central, St. John’s, Bethel, Mary Hardin-Baylor, Salisbury, Wesley, UW-Whitewater, North Central, Wabash

By split decision: TCNJ, UW-Eau Claire, Washington and Jefferson, Widener