Projecting the playoffs
Nov
2007
It’s that time of year again, our first playoff projections.
This is where we take the 22 automatic bids, 10 of which are not yet set, then figure out at-large bids, some of which will lose between now and Selection Sunday, then seed them and pair them up logically … or fiscally … or geographically … or randomly, depending on the bracket.
In doing this every year, we have to toe a fine line. We can call some conference races, leave some open, pretend we know what’s going to happen, or ignore what has yet to be played. This is an inexact science, but it’s an attempt to look at the entire field using the NCAA’s stated selection/seeding criteria. But you can’t simply try to project one bracket in isolation. How do you know if there are eight West teams getting into the field, and not seven or nine or 10?
First, the basics:
Thirty-two teams will form four eight-team brackets. And we know the champions of 22 conferences will get an automatic bid to the playoffs. Three bids (Pool B) are set aside for independents or members of non-automatic bid conferences. The remaining seven bids go to what’s called Pool C, which is everyone left over.
So how will the brackets be formed, who will play whom? That’s what we answer each week from here until Selection Sunday. For more info check out our Playoff FAQ.
Teams that have clinched playoff spots are in bold.
New Jersey Bracket
1. New Jersey (Pool A)
2. Curry (A)
3. St. John Fisher (C)
4. RPI (A)
5. Salisbury (B)
6. Hobart (C)
7. Hartwick (A)
8. Widener (A)
We tried projecting this bracket without figuring out who would win the Liberty League, but it wasn’t doable. So we projected Hobart and RPI to win their games, which gives RPI the automatic bid. Hartwick and St. John Fisher win in Week 11 and Hartwick gets the automatic bid. Salisbury gets moved into this bracket because there aren’t enough East teams that qualify.
Washington and Jefferson Bracket
1. Washington and Jefferson (A)
2. Wesley (B)
3. Muhlenberg (A)
4. Mary Hardin-Baylor (A)
5. Trinity, Texas (A)
6. Capital (C)
7. Randolph-Macon/Hampden-Sydney (A)
8. N.C. Wesleyan (A)
North Carolina Wesleyan can get to Washington and Jefferson within the prescribed 500 miles, and Capital can get to Muhlenberg as well. Interesting how when you lift Salisbury out of the bracket, you get the two Texas teams at 4-5.
Mount Union Bracket
1. Mount Union (A)
2. Wabash (A)
3. Case Western Reserve (B)
4. Wheaton, Ill. (A)
5. Franklin (A)
6. Mt. St. Joseph (C)
7. MIAA champ (A)
8. Concordia, Wis. (A)
The travel works out in this bracket, even from Mequon, Wis., to Alliance, Ohio. We qualified nine teams for the playoffs from the North Region, which filled this bracket after we moved Capital to the South.
UW-Whitewater Bracket
1. UW-Whitewater (A)
2. St. John’s (A)
3. Central (A)
4. St. Norbert (A)
5. Redlands (C)
6. Bethel (C)
7. Whitworth (C)
8. Cal Lutheran (A)
Alright, NCAA penny-pinching could rear its ugly head here. But even the NCAA couldn’t possibly make Redlands and Cal Lutheran play again, one week later, right? Right?? Let’s hope so, anyway. So we’re sending Whitworth to Redlands and Cal Lutheran to UW-Whitewater in the Danny Jones Reunion Bowl. Bethel can’t play St. John’s again, unfortunately for St. Norbert, because Norbert gets the call. Bethel would be at Central.
We end up with three teams with two regional losses in Pool C in this projection: Capital, Hobart and Bethel. Occidental, with one regional loss and the weakest opponents’ winning percentage among one-loss teams (currently .391), gets passed in the regional rankings when Redlands beats Cal Lutheran and gets left home. Waynesburg’s .424 is the second-lowest.
We’ll do this again at the end of the night on Saturday, heading into Selection Sunday.
November 7th, 2007 at 10:31 pm
You projected some winners and losers this weekend, but not for Randolph Macon and Hampden Sydney. Are you trying not to test Keith’s impartiality? (wink) Just kidding - Some interesting match-ups on there. I think that’s a real fair bracket.
November 7th, 2007 at 10:58 pm
very good bracket…
however, when bethel beats st john’s and alfred beats sjf it is going to make things interesting
November 7th, 2007 at 11:00 pm
also wartburg is going to beat central (10 to 14 points)
November 7th, 2007 at 11:16 pm
mille125: Bethel beating St. John’s merely assures both get into the field.
November 7th, 2007 at 11:33 pm
No Coast Guard… LMAO J/k…
November 7th, 2007 at 11:42 pm
I find the South Bracket there to be most interesting, with Capital imported and a legitimate Texas-on-Texas matchup. That would be one bracket where “upsets” look really possible … especially if we go back to how well No. 8 NCW matched up with No. 2 Wesley Week 1. Could also mean you have Capital at Wesley (467 miles via MQ, so no flight) in Week 2, if the bracket was set up 3-6, 2-7 on the same side. Which would send UMHB possibly back up to W&J, site of a 52-16 beatdown in ‘04.
This won’t hold of course, but it is nice to get your mind around some of the potential matchups.
MSJ-Case in the North would be like that CMU-Millsaps game last year, guaranteeing one team a slot in the second round, which would be a big step for the HCAC or the UAA to do it twice in a row.
Norbert’s the type of team that would play a lot more home playoff games if it weren’t in the West.
The Redlands/Cal Lu rematch idea stinks. It makes sense, but you know I hate rematches when there are options. I like what you came up with Pat … but I can see two SCIACs meeting in the first round. Saving a flight out of there is rare. At least one would get a home game and second-round appearance.
Definitely one of the weirder collections of Cs we’ve seen in a while.
November 8th, 2007 at 12:19 am
I realize it is only the 7/8 seeds, but I’ve assumed the MIAA rep would get the ‘coveted’ trip to Alliance. I’m curious what your reasoning was for the 6-4 MIAA team over 7-3 CUW?
November 8th, 2007 at 12:40 am
oops. posted this on the wrong thread.
repost:
November 8th, 2007 at 12:48 am
this bracket must have been more difficult than usual. a few twists this weekend turns this whole project upside down.
November 8th, 2007 at 1:08 am
I responded on the wrong thread, but also said you probably meant to post here. Oops.
Wait, I think I can edit.
Aw, heck yeah, I can.
Will also delete the ones that are out of place on the other thread, like they never happened. Sound good, usee?
November 8th, 2007 at 1:25 am
I guess a better question on west/south is: wouldn’t it be easier to move wheaton west tthan capital south? wheaton is close to st. norberts/UWW/central….but pat probably saw that as creating more problems for west/south. ok to delete my misguided previous post. thanks
November 8th, 2007 at 2:22 am
Pat -
Thanks for putting this together. In reviewing your proposed brackets there are several teams that have similar / same records (ie - 2 losses) that higher SOSs / OWPs.
I understand you made some assumptionson upcoming game results that are probably made ona much more informed basis. As I looked at key games, I assumed that the higher ranked team won and the loser became a Pool C candidate. I also assumed that one lose teams that were ranked in this ranking should be pooled with 2 loss teams for purposes of ranking the teams based on their SOS OWP. * Additionally, if a team in a particular region was ranked higher than another team in that region, i followed the regional ranking orders versus the SOS, then I went back to the SOS at the point the next threshold was met.
In my quick review, the following teams represented the top seven as we sit here today:
One loss teams*-
1. Mt St. Joseph (N 6) / 8-1 / OWP 47.5 /OWP Rank 144
Two loss teams and one loss teams ranked below two loss teams in their region -
/ 7-2 / OWP 62.8 / OWP Rank 13
/ 7-2 / OWP 54.1 / OWP Rank 62
/ 7-2 / OWP 53.5/ OWP Rank 72
2. Capital (N 7) / 7-2 / OWP 53.4 / OWP Rank 73
3. Whittenberg (N
4. North Central (N 9) / 7-2 / OWP 56.5 / OWP Rank 42
5. Hobart (E 5) / 7-2 / OWP 55.6 / OWP Rank 51
6. Millsaps (S
7. Hartwick (S
8. Bethel (W 5) / 7-1 / OWP 48.6 / OWP Rank 132 (assumed loss to St. John’s making 2 losses)
9. Wartburg (W 6) / 7-1/ OWP 50.7 / OWP Rank 107(assumed loss to Central making 2 losses)
10. Occidental* (W 7) / 7-1/ OWP 39.1 / OWP Rank 208
The differences in the above and your projection include the following:
1. Hartwick in as a Pool A and St. John Fisher in as a Pool C in the East — sort of a wash.
2. Whittenburg (N 8 / OWP Rank 13); North Central (N 9 / OWP Rank 42) and;Millsaps (S 8 / OWP Rank 62) falling mathematically in spots 5, 6 and 7 versus inclusion in your proposed bracket of Bethel (W 5 / OWP Rank 132); Redlands (W 8 / OWP Rank103) and; Whitworth (W 9 / OWP Rank 98).
What is the logic of including the three west teams that have lower OWP Ranks?
Also, one item of note is that it looks like both North Central and Hobart have games this week-end that reasonably could go either way. If either of these lose, teams 8 and 9 move up in my estimate.
I understood that the best remaining 7 teams filled the Pool C slots regardless of region. Is there a requirement to have a minimum number of teams from each region?
If the thinking was subjective, what was your thinking in regard to including the three West teams with lower OWP Rankings than other teams on the board / list?
Thanks again for your work.
November 8th, 2007 at 7:06 am
What are the chances of SJU being a #1 seed in the West?
November 8th, 2007 at 8:12 am
Fowler57:
Probably not very good.
UW-Whitewater has been ranked in front of the Johnnies in every regional ranking thus far. It would take a Warhawks loss to UW-Plattville (1-5 in WIAC) and a Johnnies win over Bethel for SJU to take that spot. The former isn’t likely to happen.
November 8th, 2007 at 8:13 am
If Capital wasn’t depleted on offense, they’d have a chance to win the South. Their defense is more than good enough, but their offense is worse than HORRIBLE.
November 8th, 2007 at 8:13 am
Interesting that you say Mequon is within the 500 miles to Alliance. Mapquest and Yahoo Maps agree with you. MSN’s mappoint says it’s 518 miles. I thought MSN was the “official” mileage of the NCAA. Of course, after last years Texas matchup when they seemingly had an alternative, it’s hard to say what maps they are using.
November 8th, 2007 at 9:18 am
What is going to happen with Wheaton (IL) when they lose to Ill Wes. this weekend? Maybe dropping to #7 in the North to play Wabash (this will be not “scrimage”. Or to #5 then just have to switch sites with Franklin. Great job on the “Projections”. Alfred gets screwed again even if they beat SJF? Possible!
“We’ll KEEP the Bell”
November 8th, 2007 at 9:30 am
Interesting. We’ll have to look at that. But easily adjusted without making too much difference in the bracket because we can send CUW to Wabash and the MIAA winner to Alliance.
November 8th, 2007 at 9:32 am
Bright guy: We aren’t projecting Alfred to beat SJF but if they did then it would open the door for Alfred or Waynesburg.
November 8th, 2007 at 9:32 am
Don’t sleep on Union. They have the highest probability in the liberty league to make the playoffs. This weekend at the U will be a great game. I have a feeling that Union will ultimatley be the team that comes out of the Liberty League. An interesting note on the LL is that nobody controls their own destiny this weekend.
November 8th, 2007 at 9:47 am
Carl: OWP is neither the be-all nor the end-all.
November 8th, 2007 at 10:13 am
Brightguy, I’m assuming you’re a Wally. Although I hope I’m wrong, as I understand it Wheaton dominated us in the scrimmage and even though it was just a scrimmage, they beat us badly nonetheless, and that was with Huff. I would really not want to face Wheaton until I had to and I think Wabash gets a really good draw playing MIAA and then Case Western. Especially with games at home.
I think Franklin should get a home game over Wheaton. Wheaton is ranked higher just b/c they had a higher preseason ranking over Franklin. Franklin has lost one game all year to the #7 team in the nation by two points on the road and it took the fallen Little Giants QB getting 499 total yards (475-passing and 24 rushing) to beat the Grizzlies. Besides that they’ve gone 8-0. I think they’ve proven enough to get a home play-off game.
Depauw to Hell, We’ll keep the Bell.
November 8th, 2007 at 10:19 am
Assuming the regions are seeded as such:
1. North
2. West
3. South
4. East
I don’t think Capital will get sent to the South. If they get moved, it will be East.
Reason being is I think the NCAA will eliminate any chance the Stagg teams could be from the same conference. Even though no one (myself included) expects a beat up Capital to win more than their 1st round game, I think the NCAA will guarantee it by pairing those regions together in semi’s. Salisbury staying in the South and moving Capital east makes this a moot point.
November 8th, 2007 at 10:23 am
HSCoach — interesting conspiracy theory but not sure they think that way.
Moving Capital East puts them in airplanes after the first weekend.
November 8th, 2007 at 11:08 am
BrightGuy,
good analysis but I think the way the pool C conversation goes (as discussed on the pool c board) is like the musical chairs analogy posted elsewhere. Even if NCC is a stronger pool C candidate than Bethel the fact is that Bethel will be one of the first Pool C teams at the table from the west and NCC will be 3rd at best from the north.
November 8th, 2007 at 12:14 pm
Go Mount!
‘84
November 8th, 2007 at 12:42 pm
Danimal:
The polls, either preseason or current, don’t affect the rankings including Wheaton’s ranking relative to Franklin. Right now the Thunder are close to the Grizzlies on several criteria like OWP, OOP (see http://www.d3football.com/strength-of-schedule/2007) and record versus regionally ranked teams (1-1 for each).
November 8th, 2007 at 12:51 pm
If montclair st. wins there last game and finishes 8-2, how do they not qualify for ncaa at large bid. Assuming Hobart wins their game and finished 8-2 as well, there strenght of schedule isnt as tough as montclair. How do they qualify better then montclair. Another scneraio is say Hobart loses to a good Rochester team and they finish 7-3, who fills in for the spot of Hobart.
November 8th, 2007 at 1:27 pm
After seeing your predictions for the seeding of each region I was just wondering how you think things will turn out and who will win each region. Also when there are only 4 teams left which region winner will play which.
November 8th, 2007 at 1:36 pm
Pat -
Thanks for your follow-up.
If you have time and this is a fair question - How do the 12 teams including in the rankings this week stack up? In other words, in yur view, who is #8 through #19 on the Pool C pecking order at this point?
Also, is the most significant secondary factor to OWP geography in most cases? Just trying to understand.
Thanks.
November 8th, 2007 at 1:41 pm
You know, if Mount Union, Whitewater, Mary Hardin Baylor or Capital, and Curry or Hobart win regionals, we will have purple overload in the semis.
November 8th, 2007 at 1:49 pm
At first glance, I’d think that either Montclair State or Cortland State might be in line for a Pool C ahead of a second LL or E-8 team this year. Montclair has a slightly higher SOS rating than Hobart, and a significantly higher SOS than SJF and Hartwick. Cortland has a significantly higher SOS than SJF.
That certainly constitutes enough teams qualifying to keep Salisbury in the South and Capital in the North. It probably knocks Whitworth out of B, though, and bumps Concordia into the West.
My humble .02 worth.
November 8th, 2007 at 2:06 pm
Sorry–hit submit too early.
To continue my thought, I think it’s fair to say that any combination of two of the following teams will be the last two in/last two out:
Whitworth
Capital
Second LL team
Second E-8 team
Second NJAC team
I’d think that Montclair is a lock, given that they also hold a significant SOS advantage over Whitworth. Putting Montclair in the East bumps Salisbury back South and preserves the no-flights-until-the-finals MO. It moves Capital back North, if they get in ahead of Wittenberg, which I find unlikely given the serious SOS advantage Witt has over Capital.
Witt or Capital in the North bumps CU-W into the West, where they match up with UW-W in the first round and preserves the no-flights scenario from the South in the West, too.
November 8th, 2007 at 2:29 pm
How about the serious head-to-head advantage Capital has over Witt??
November 8th, 2007 at 2:59 pm
No offense to Montclair and Cortland but Hobart is a VERY good team that lost two very close games to two good teams when they were playing at a weak level. There is no doubt in my mind that Hobart can play with Montclair amd Corltand, if you lose 30-0 there is no reason you should be playing in the postseason… No offense… If Hobart lost a game that badly, I’d say the same… Hobart RPI’s loss is looking really bad and can come nack to haunt them, unless Union can beat RPI and Hobart can pull off a win against a very tough U of R… A simiar scenario happened last year if I can remember…
November 8th, 2007 at 3:02 pm
In-region head-to-head seems to be the third of the at-large selection criteria, based on the way I read them, pat. But for the sake of the argument, it doesn’t change the basic premise.
Maybe neither one gets a Pool C, but with Witt’s SOS in the Top 20 and the fact that regional record and in-region SOS are the top two criteria, I’d say that they trump the head-to-head.
November 8th, 2007 at 3:08 pm
Just take a look at the regional rankings — if Witt’s OWP were that important wouldn’t Witt be ahead of Capital now?
I think that if regional winning percentage (really, in-region losses) are equal, then head-to-head is next. And you see that in Capital (.534) over Wittenberg (.628) and Occidental (.391) over Redlands (.514).
Plus, take a look at Witt’s OOWP and you get an idea how Witt got that high OWP.
November 8th, 2007 at 3:24 pm
Danimal814:
I am a Wally (Fan), and that was “Pre-Season” with the o-line trying to fill in some spots (1 returning senior), top WR out injured, starting NT sitting after first series. And I believe the final score was only 17 - 0. Now I think we are healthier, our back up QB has done a great job since starting and their “Manimal” on the D-line is out. I didn’t say weather or not I liked that they COULD be moved to #7, I would much rather play the MIAA team in the first round.
November 8th, 2007 at 3:59 pm
I can’t wait to keep the bell (for the third year in a row), then play Mount Union in the Playoffs….this should be a great couple of weeks
O i forgot- Depauw Swallows
November 8th, 2007 at 4:11 pm
jpb,
Witt plays 0-9 Hiram Saturday - so much for their huge OWP advantage!
November 8th, 2007 at 4:16 pm
The Hobart vs. Montclair argument is a valid one. Both have the same regional records, their 2 losses are both to teams with combined 15-3 records, their SoS is very similar with MSU holding a .009 edge in OWP and .025 in OOWP.
MSU has the impressive 1 pt win over Wesley on their resume from week 4, while Hobart’s has the upset over then #11 Alfred in week 9.
The biggest difference and why the committee might give Hobart the nod is that Hobart’s 2 losses were by a total of 7 pts while MSU’s were by a total of 40.
Although it’s not stated, I wonder whether or not the Committee considers “past performance” in the more subjective areas of their selection? Where I am going here is that if Hobart doesn’t get the LL Pool A, would there recent tourney history of being competitive in 2005 and 2006 come into play?
November 8th, 2007 at 5:00 pm
Does Central get in the playoffs with a loss at Wartburg, regardless of score?
November 8th, 2007 at 5:42 pm
I’d say Whitworth is included because they have clinched the NWC championship and winning this weekend gives them 8 wins and 6-0 conference record. NWC doesn’t get an automatic bid until next season, but ceremoniously should get one this season. That said…you mention avoiding rematches…but if you have Whitworth playing Redlands then that right there is a rematch from week # 1 of this season. Tough scheduling.
November 8th, 2007 at 5:45 pm
where does Cortland fall in all of this when they beat Ithaca this weekend for the Jug? Any chance at the playoffs? Having two loses will hurt their chances. What’s your opinion?
November 8th, 2007 at 6:52 pm
Since everyone is talking about Capital being in the playoffs, and wondering where there going to land. People should think about the game this weekend, and has anybody thought about if Capital gets beat then there will be 3 teams in the OAC 7-3 with Baldwin Wallace on Top. Would that mean the OAC will only have one team in the Playoffs this year??? Or will the ncaa take a 7-3 team??
November 8th, 2007 at 7:07 pm
mjbcoug: I mention conference rematches. The NCAA has no qualms whatsoever about a non-conference rematch. In fact, it happens fairly regularly. The NCAA also has no sentiment about a pre-automatic bid.
Tonyg45: We have only seen a few teams with two regional losses get Pool C bids. Never a team with three losses. If Capital loses then Mount Union is the only OAC team in the field.
shoeboy: I feel confident about Central (and St. John’s) getting in if they lose Saturday.
November 8th, 2007 at 7:37 pm
Cortland is in a tough spot b/c although they could finish the season 8-2, their in region record would only be 7-2 (vs. other Pool C contenders with 8-2 or 9-1 records) since I believe their game against Morrisville was out of region.
Also, their SoS at 102 isn’t as high as other Pool C contenders like Montclair (43), Hobart (51) etc.
November 8th, 2007 at 8:15 pm
If Cortland St. loses to ithaca they are def eliminated from the tourney. Yes If st. john fisher wins and hartwick wins, hartwick gets the auto-bid. That making st. john fisher 9-1 but with a SOS of (153). I can’t see why a team who has an easy schedule could make it over a Montclair st. with SOS (44) and a hobart (53). Even be 9-1 you can still be held from the dance I.E. Cortland last year. Either Montclair st. and/or Hobart deserve to be in east bracket with good records on a tough schedule, i cant see why Salisbury was needed to be added to the east.
November 8th, 2007 at 8:21 pm
Union5, I’m crtainly not counting out your Dutchmen. I believe (and am obviously hoping) Union will beat fading RPI if they don’t shoot themselves in the foot like they did last weekend vs. Hobart. This was a battle of 2 heavy weights, punching it out. However, Union committed several very foolish penalties at very critical points in the game that really cost them. (ie. Two 3rd down personal fouls in a Hobart scoring drive late in the game) Although very unusual for me to say, I’ll swallow hard and say it…. “GO UNION!!!” Watch for a high scoring Hobart-Rochester game, the 100th meeting between the two schools. Both teams are hot. Should be great game.
November 8th, 2007 at 8:22 pm
rams15: Every year is different. There aren’t nearly as many one-loss teams this season.
November 8th, 2007 at 8:48 pm
I am a Cortland fan and no way they make it thanks to the stinker they put up against Brockport and getting smoked by TCNJ. Beat Brockport and they would have an arguement but that game will haunt them.
November 8th, 2007 at 8:53 pm
Gents this is my first post so if I screw something up I apologize in advance!
North Region I think can get pretty messed up this weekend if I was looking at things the right way
Weaton @ Illinois Wesleyan - Ill Wes playing for a possible tie for the CCIW (with North Central playing Carthage to get into the mix to) Weaton (8-1) lost to Carthage (7-2) last week while Illinois Wesleyan beat Carthage earlier in the year. I think this is going be a very decisive game for both the CCIW and the playoffs.
Case @ Ohio Wesleyan - A presumable overrated Case team (according to a lot of people on d3football) playing a mediocre Ohio Wesleyan team.
If Weaton loses, Case loses, Franklin win, Mount St. Joe win how does that scrammble the North Region rankings?
If things go that way I think its really going fugde things up for the north teams
Just some food for thought
November 8th, 2007 at 9:08 pm
rams15,
Are you saying that if SJFC beats Alfred this weekend (a very tough task, hard to see Alfred dropping 3 in a row) and finishes 9-1 they don’t deserve to make the playoffs but instead should stay home in favor of Montclair St.??
November 8th, 2007 at 9:11 pm
What will most likely happen if Case Western Reserve loses its final game of the season to Ohio Wesleyan and falls to 9-1? I would think they would fall from the top 3 Pool B teams, right? Also, Pat you mention that Oxy currently has the worst opponents’ winning percentage (.391) among one loss teams. If my math is right, Case’s opponents are currently even worse at .368. They have played some truly horrible teams, and it looks like they could be the one loss team whose opponent’s winning percentage is among the worst, if not THE worst, if they
November 8th, 2007 at 9:12 pm
(sorry, pressed enter too soon)……if they were to fall to 9-1? Would they still get in, or not? And how would this shake things up elsewhere?
November 8th, 2007 at 9:14 pm
When I ask if they would still get in, I’m obviously referring to if they would get a Pool C, since it wouldn’t look like a Pool B would be likely if Salisbury, Wesley, and Whitworth win their games.
November 8th, 2007 at 9:47 pm
SJFC1993,
im not sayin they dont deserve it but still with the schedule they have they should be 9-1. But like you said they have a tough task in front of them in beating Alfred. If Alfred wins and assuming Hartwick beats a bad Utica team, Alfred wins the head to head gets the auto-bid and puts Hartwick in second place in the E8 cause of their head to head over SJF. Now back to defending Montclair, do you take the 8-2 Hartwick with SOS (72) over Montclair 8-2 with SOS (43).
November 8th, 2007 at 10:35 pm
rams15:
I disagree…well you probably figured out why by now…but really: You are admittedly placing too much emphasis on SOS and not on the teams themselves. You indicate that with such an easy schedule…they (SJF) should be 9-1. What if they were 10-0 with an “easy” schedule? Would they still be out in favor of an 8-2 team with a better objective (SOS) analysis? The fact is that SJF is and has been a Top 10 team all season, and if they beat AU, they will, at a minimum, finish as the 6 team in the country. If Mount Union goes 10-0 with the easiest schedule in the country, do they not get in either because they had a weak schedule or do you look past the schedule and actually analyze the quality of the team?
Montclair is obviously a strong East team….but they lost 2 games so far and that, no matter how tough your schedule is does not cut it.
November 9th, 2007 at 8:12 am
either way… go C STATE this weekend… beat the bombers
November 9th, 2007 at 8:44 am
I love this time of yesar,. the forum boards on this site are always bumping! Its great to see the ineterst in D-3, the different opinions, and the commintments to peoples respective squads! Good luck to everyone making a playoff run!
November 9th, 2007 at 9:00 am
For Union to beat RPI:
1.) Catellier must get the start
2.) Union must be disciplined or I am calling for the return of Bagnoli
3.) Both Tillo and Coney must carry the ball well and Tillo must play some FB to clear the way (go O-line!)
4.) The Dutchmen DB’s must defend the pass better than they did last week!
5.) Union must run the ball if they get it inside the 5 and not pass their downs away like usual
I hope King has had is hat on backwards all week and by the end of the game tomorrow puts it on backwards again. GO UNION!
November 9th, 2007 at 10:21 am
SJFF82, the rise of the conferences and the expansion of the playoffs has made the 10-0 question virtually moot. With the exception of the UAA, the ACFC, the independents and a quirky NCAC outcome, a 10-0 team has won the Pool A bid for the conference. If a team is not the Pool A, or an undefeated Pool B, then they are hoping for a “do-over”.
Good luck to all, I think that we will see a spirited debate about the 32nd, 33rd and 34th teams, but the opposite side of that argument is why did they lose the game(s) that they lost.
November 9th, 2007 at 1:06 pm
What if Hobart and PRI Lose this week, what does that mean for Cortland? Will Union have a chance at playoffs even if they have 3 loses?
November 9th, 2007 at 1:17 pm
Well, Union will get the automatic bid if Hobart and RPI lose so yes, they’ll have a shot if Hobart and RPI lose.
You need more losses elsewhere in the country, not just the East.
November 9th, 2007 at 4:06 pm
rams15,
Fisher has an easy schedule? I believe the last time I checked, Hartwick, Ithaca and Alfred were ranked 8th, 9th and 10th respectively in the east. That means the Empire 8 has 4 teams ranked in the top 10 in the east! Doesn’t sound too weak to me!
November 9th, 2007 at 4:42 pm
All these projections and Muhlenberg shut out East region #1 TCNJ and shutout Union (possible LL team). How high does that get the Mules who are 9-0 so far?
November 9th, 2007 at 5:29 pm
sjf, not to mention Rochester (winners of 6 straight) and always solid Springfield. It’s tough not to have few “cream puffs” on the D-III schedule, but SJF has no more than most. I’ve also seen SJF play and believe they’re loaded. As I’ve indicated before, SJF should handle AU without much trouble. I’ve seen AU too and believe they were overrated for much of the season. They have turned out to be a good, not great team as evidenced by the last 2 weeks when they have been soundly beaten.