D3football Daily Dose

Every week, Keith McMillan, a guest and I take a tour through the weekend’s games, giving you our take on what the big games, big upsets and new names will be coming out of the upcoming week. Our Triple-Take guest this week is D3football.com broadcaster John McGraw, who also has some loyalties he needs to disclose later.

Game of the Week
John’s take: RPI at Union (Dutchman’s Shoes). There’s certainly nothing like rivalry weekend in Division III football. Obviously there are many great rivalry games around the country and to the fans of those particular teams and those games, that is their “game of the week.” But, not only will the Dutchman’s Shoes be on the line at Bailey Field in Schenectady, N.Y., when Union hosts RPI, a Liberty League championship and a playoff bid could go to the winner. The four-team race in the Liberty League makes my head spin, but either team helps their chances greatly with a victory over their rival.
Keith’s take: No. 4 Central at No. 12 Wartburg. I think you are all well aware by now where my Game of the Week is. Hampden-Sydney and Randolph-Macon play a huge rivalry game on the campus of my alma mater with a conference title and playoff bid on the line. But truthfully, Central-Wartburg and No. 3 St. John’s visit to No. 16 Bethel are more important. Both have wide-ranging playoff implications if the lower-ranked team forces its way into the 32-team field without knocking its 9-0 opponent out of the mix. Since I had to choose, I went with the game in Iowa, which is slightly more likely to produce a fantastic ending, since that’s pretty much the way Central likes ‘em all.
Pat’s take: No. 10 Wheaton at Illinois Wesleyan. This game, along with the game Keith chose, can impact two conference automatic bids, in this case the CCIW and the MIAA. Hope and Olivet, two of the three teams tied for first in the MIAA, played Wheaton and Illinois Wesleyan respectively and their opponents’ records are the tiebreaker that it appears will settle the automatic bid. Oh, and Wheaton can win the CCIW automatic bid with a victory, so that’s important too. IWU can win the automatic bid if it wins and North Central loses at Carthage.

Surprisingly Close Game
John’s take: Wheaton at Illinois Wesleyan. Last year, Wheaton hammered Illinois Wesleyan 49-14 at home en route to an appearance in the NCAA playoffs. In the CCIW preseason poll, the coaches selected Wheaton first and Illinois Wesleyan sixth. While IWU hasn’t had a winning season since 2002, the Titans are looking for a repeat of their home upset of Wheaton in 2005.
Keith’s take: St. Olaf at St. Thomas. Coming off an 85-point week, the 7-2 Oles probably can’t play their way into the postseason, and they know it. That could leave room for a sloppy performance against a 2-7 Tommies team that put up some serious offense in a 51-34 loss at St. John’s two weeks ago. There are some other key games that could be close, like Capital/Baldwin-Wallace, but that wouldn’t be much of a surprise.
Pat’s take: Moravian at No. 15 Muhlenberg. Not that I think Muhlenberg is going to lose this game, per se, but the rivalry has a little added bonus this year now that both teams are again in the same conference after a quarter-century. Moravian hasn’t had a bad season itself, coming into the game a 6-3, and could be fighting for an ECAC postseason “bowl” game, not to mention the spoiler aspect of knocking Muhlenberg out of a potential first- or even second-round home game. Picture a 17-13 game, depending on weather.

Top 25 team most likely to be upset
John’s take: No. 4 Central. The last three times the Dutch have gone on the road, they have come out with a victory of seven points or less, including a 37-34 triple-overtime thriller over Dubuque on Oct. 20. Only three of Central’s nine games this season have been decided by more than one score. Aside from a hiccup against Augsburg, Wartburg has been tough at home all season. I’m not sure how much magic the Dutch have left, if this game comes down to the wire, after so many nail-biters already.
Keith’s take: No. 9 Wabash. There are a bunch of top 25 teams who are playing for their playoff lives or even a postseason home game, but the 9-0 Little Giants might have wrapped up both in the North. DePauw can’t affect the playoff picture much, but at home and at 7-2, it’s no slouch, and won’t have trouble finding a reason to want to knock off its Monon Bell rival anyway.
Pat’s take: No. 19 UW-Eau Claire. When in doubt, go with the WIAC team, right? At 4-5, UW-Stout hasn’t been playing too badly after the offseason upheaval and these rivals, separated by 26 miles of I-94, have played some of their common opponents very favorably. Besides, Stout can play spoiler to Eau Claire’s faint playoff hopes.

They’ll be on your radar
John’s take: Cal Lutheran. After an 0-2 start under new coach Ben McEnroe, it appeared the Kingsmen would be bound for a rebuilding year. Since then, Cal Lu (5-0, 5-3) has won five out of its last six games and can clinch the SCIAC auto-bid to the NCAA playoffs with a victory at home over Redlands. Not bad for a program that has never been to the NCAA tournament.
Keith’s take: North Central. The Cardinals don’t even play the biggest CCIW game Saturday, but they can get their hands on a share of the conference title, unlike its opponent Carthage, which has an identical 7-2 record. While Wheaton is controlling its destiny against Illinois Wesleyan, North Central will have to motivate itself with hopes of a three-way tie.
Pat’s take: Curry. You heard it here first – the Colonels might be able to win a playoff game this season if they beat Coast Guard and maintain their lofty seeding. But that’s only because I can’t take Olivet again this week after picking them for Week 10.

Which game most deserves the “Biggest Little Game in America” designation that more than one rivalry claims?
John’s take: Having witnessed the Williams-Amherst rivalry first-hand (2002), I’m hard-pressed to pick against it. But, then again, what rivalry game sells out almost three weeks before the two teams take the field? The Cortaca Jug game between Ithaca and Cortland. It’s the hottest ticket in town when these two schools get together on the gridiron and tickets have sold out five times in the last six years. While Ithaca leads the all-time series, nine of the last 10 games have come down to the final minute and the last two have gone to overtime. Throw in the always miserable upstate New York weather in November, an always loud and boisterous crowd and lots of school spirit, and that’s what makes this rivalry great. (Full disclosure: I graduated from Ithaca and broadcast football at Cortland for four years).
Keith’s take: With ESPN’s College GameDay on site for Amherst-Williams, this one’s a no-brainer, at least for this Saturday.
Pat’s take: Someone has to stick up for Wabash-DePauw, right? Best part about the Monon Bell game is that it outdraws Cortaca and the schools somehow manage to pick up the pieces after this game and still compete in the playoffs. The NESCAC folks would have you believe that you can’t possible then go back and play in a playoff game after competing in the big season-ending rivalry, but Wabash would beg to differ. DePauw would beg to be able to beg to differ, but that’s a different story.

Who will have Pool C hopes surprisingly dashed?
John’s take: Bethel. A Week 1 loss to Buena Vista dooms the Royals if they cannot get past the Johnnies on Saturday. While it is going to be possible for a two-loss team to make the playoffs, I’m not sure if the Royals will be one of those teams. Bethel’s fate could be decided by how things play out in southern California and upstate New York.
Keith’s take: Redlands. Despite going 7-1 to this point with a non-conference road win against a likely playoff team, Whitworth, it appears even a victory over Cal Lutheran won’t guarantee the Bulldogs a spot in the playoffs. A three-way tie would be broken by the Rose Bowl rule, rewarding the spot to the team who has been to the playoffs least recently, sending the Kingsmen to the postseason even if they pick up their fourth loss, unless 3-5 Whittier manages to knock off Occidental and make the Redlands-CLU winner the automatic qualifier. Too bad the Bulldogs’ 1 p.m. local kickoff leaves them time to get over to Whittier to watch Occidental agonizingly ruin their plans in a 7 p.m. game.
Pat’s take: Mt. St. Joseph. At 4-5, Thomas More is playing for a .500 record, there’s a local rivalry on the line and of course, the spoiler factor. The Saints have had moments of brilliance (10-9 loss to Geneva) but haven’t quite put it all together against a good team. Does Mt. St. Joseph not take the Bridge Bowl game seriously enough? Preserving a one-loss resume heading into Selection Sunday should be enough motivation.

What winless team takes advantage of its last chance to get off the schneid?
John’s take: King’s. Only one time in the D3football.com era has King’s finished below .500. This year, the Monarchs have gone winless in nine contests. They’ve been close, a two-point loss to Hampden-Sydney, a three-point loss versus Albright and a four-point loss to Lebanon Valley. For a program that’s usually in the top half of the MAC, I can’t see King’s going 0-10. The Monarchs are 6-2 against FDU-Florham in their last eight meetings. Look for Tore Alaimo and company to go out on a winning note.
Keith’s take: Bates. Boy, it’s hard to really get behind any team that hasn’t pulled one together by this point. Playing for a win is sure to keep the competitive flames stoked, but confidence can go out the window quick if the game gets off to a bad start. In the case of the Bobcats, they just seem to have one of the most beatable opponents in 2-5 Hamilton, which scores a paltry 10.7 points per game.
Pat’s take: Juniata. It didn’t get any better for the Eagles after moving from the MAC to the Centennial and after losing two of the first four games by one score, Juniata has lost its last five by an average of three touchdowns. Juniata needs this one.