D3football Daily Dose

I want to reprise something I first wrote a couple of years ago after some particularly rough weekends in the sportsmanship department:

“Ladies and gentlemen, the NCAA promotes good sportsmanship by student-athletes, coaches and spectators. We request your cooperation by supporting the participants and officials in a positive manner. Profanity, racial, or sexist comments, or other intimidating actions directed at officials, student-athletes, coaches or team representatives will not be tolerated and are grounds for removal from the site of competition. Also, the consumption or possession of alcoholic beverages at the site of competition is prohibited.”

I’ve heard this so many times in the past decade or so it rolls off the tongue (or fingers) in a flash. But it often seems like there are some fans who need a reminder. This remains on the minds of decision makers as we come to the postseason.

Consider this, fans, especially you students out there. These are big games, no doubt, and it’s great to get excited about them, but these players do not deserve your abuse. A Division III football player gets no special treatment above and beyond what you get. They’re not on scholarship, don’t get special dining halls or treatment in the classroom (in fact, you can count on some professors being harder on football players than on the rest of the class).

I would be in favor of immediately kicking anyone out of the stadium who is in violation of the sportsmanship agreement. So what if you paid $5, $8, whatever to be there? Act like a grownup, since that’s what you allegedly are.

If you need to get all liquored up in order to enjoy a football game, stay home. The football should be reason enough. If you’re of legal age, there’s plenty of time to drink after the game — that’s one of the benefits of a noon kickoff.

On a related note, I was heartened to visit a Middle Atlantic Conference facility for the first time in 2007 and see the conference’s code of conduct posted prominently. Good work, MAC, welcome aboard. Be loud, proud and positive.

Well, we survived another Selection Sunday, though the day has barely ended as I write this portion of the site. Four hours of sleep, up at 7:15, off to ESPNU, analyze the bracket, check graphics and pronunciations, go over highlights, write a script, go through a dress rehearsal and do the show. Then tape a segment for ESPNews (did anyone ever see that?) and another for online.

Thankfully, the podcast was pretty simple, too, only requiring one edit to piece two parts together.

It’s our look at the bracket, the key points in each game, etc. How many points can Capital give up and still win? Do Keith McMillan and I both like the way this was put together? Why Eau Claire instead of Whitworth?

It wasn’t quite a record day trafficwise but with the brackets being revealed so early in the morning, we didn’t expect it. But it was a great day in Division III football, both Saturday and Sunday. Hear the highlights in our ATN podcast.

 

 Around the Nation Podcast [22:52m]: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

While Pat and Gordon were pretty darn close in their predictions, nailing 31 of 32 teams and missing on Whitworth (UW-Eau Claire made it instead), it’s clear we’d grown accustomed to the committee being fairly predictable.

Perhaps it’s because there was only one West Coast team in the field, but whatever the reason, they were anything but this time around. The bracket has been revealed, and some curveballs have been thrown.

Ithaca at Mount Union, Redlands at St. John’s and Widener at Case Western Reserve were among the matchups we did not see coming. You can throw Olivet at Central in there too. With the proximity of so many of the teams, the committee’s matchups did not hold to the regions. For years they have not had to, but often they simply shake out that way. In Saturday’s first round, we’ll have an East Region team at a North, a North at a West in two different brackets and two South Region teams who could have been moved to the East playing each other. And then Redlands flying halfway across the country … but still Texas vs. Texas.

Without further ado, the floor is open for your reactions.

Alright, this is it, our last word on who we think will be in the playoffs. This is our final projection. We’ll all find out during the selection show at 11:30 a.m. ET what the NCAA thinks. I’d like to toot our own horn, with the fact that we got every at-large team right last year, but this year the selection process changes slightly, with the disappearance of the Quality of Wins Index and the return of opponents’ winning percentage and opponents’ opponents’ winning percentage. So we’re optimistic, but cautious.

As a reminder, 32 teams form four eight-team brackets. And we know the champions of 22 conferences and the automatic bids. Three bids (Pool B) are set aside for independents or members of non-automatic bid conferences. The remaining seven bids go to what’s called Pool C, which is everyone left over.

So how will the brackets be formed, who will play whom? That’s what we answer each week from here until Selection Sunday. For more info check out our Playoff FAQ.

Gordon Mann and I, as we have for the past several years, debated the at-large teams, the seedings and the pairings. Here’s our result.

St. John Fisher Bracket
1. St. John Fisher (C)
2. Curry (A)
3. RPI (A)
4. Hobart (C)
5. New Jersey (A)
6. Hartwick (A)
7. Ithaca (C)
8. Widener (A)
A surprise, perhaps, right off the bat as we have three Empire 8 teams in the field. Hartwick passed Widener in opponents’ winning percentage (OWP) and OOWP this week and dragged Ithaca up with them. Widener plays at St. John Fisher, Ithaca at Curry, Hartwick at RPI and New Jersey at Hobart.

Mount Union Bracket
1. Mount Union (A)
2. Wabash (A)
3. Case Western Reserve (B)
4. Franklin (A)
5. Mt. St. Joseph (C)
6. North Central (A)
7. Capital (C)
8. Olivet (A)
Despite Wabash’s loss, we kept them in the No. 2 slot, giving them the nod based on a significantly higher opponents’ winning percentage. The traditional pairings get broken up here a little, as Mt. St. Joseph and Franklin wouldn’t play again in the first round. Olivet travels to Mount Union, Capital to Wabash, North Central to Franklin and Mt. St. Joseph to Case.

Washington and Jefferson Bracket
1. Washington and Jefferson (A)
2. Wesley (B)
3. Muhlenberg (A)
4. Mary Hardin-Baylor (A)
5. Salisbury (B)
6. Trinity, Texas (A)
7. Hampden-Sydney (A)
8. N.C. Wesleyan (A)
Despite the seedings, of course, the Texas teams play each other in the first round, with Trinity at Mary Hardin-Baylor. North Carolina Wesleyan is within the 500-mile radius of Washington and Jefferson, with Hampden-Sydney heading to Wesley and Salisbury at Muhlenberg.

UW-Whitewater Bracket
1. UW-Whitewater (A)
2. Central (A)
3. Bethel (A)
4. St. Norbert (A)
5. St. John’s (C)
6. Redlands (A)
7. Whitworth (C)
8. Concordia, Wis. (A)
Whitworth would be the first team in a non-automatic bid conference to earn a Pool C bid. And of course, the money saving NCAA would put No. 7 seed Whitworth at No. 6 seed Redlands, even though it’s the only flight of the bracket. Concordia (Wis.) gets the honor of the short trip to UW-Whitewater, with St. Norbert at Bethel and St. John’s at Central.

So our Pool B decision was easy: Wesley, Salisbury, Case Western Reserve.

Pool C was easier. Wait, make that harder. It went St. John Fisher, St. John’s, Mt. St. Joseph, Hobart, Capital, Whitworth and Ithaca. Millsaps, Wheaton and Wartburg were on the board when the buzzer sounded and Wheaton was the last team left out, the proverbial eighth Pool C team. Wheaton and Ithaca have nearly identical credentials but very different endings to their seasons.

GameDay just hit the airwaves on ESPN and so far the crowd is looking pretty good in Williamstown, Mass. I must admit to not being much of a GameDay watcher in the past couple of years. As I’ve traveled to more and more Division III games, I don’t exactly find myself in front of a television at 10 a.m. ET on a Saturday. This is only the third weekend of 11 that I’ve spent at home, and I’m only doing that because I have to be at the airport at a little after 3 p.m. to get to ESPNU.

Just showed highlights of Mount Union. Chris Fowler pronounced Monon Bell correctly. ESPN graphic missed the hyphen on Hampden-Sydney.

I’ll be virtually channel surfing between the big games today and watching for teams to clinch, etc.

Every week, Keith McMillan, a guest and I take a tour through the weekend’s games, giving you our take on what the big games, big upsets and new names will be coming out of the upcoming week. Our Triple-Take guest this week is D3football.com broadcaster John McGraw, who also has some loyalties he needs to disclose later.

Game of the Week
John’s take: RPI at Union (Dutchman’s Shoes). There’s certainly nothing like rivalry weekend in Division III football. Obviously there are many great rivalry games around the country and to the fans of those particular teams and those games, that is their “game of the week.” But, not only will the Dutchman’s Shoes be on the line at Bailey Field in Schenectady, N.Y., when Union hosts RPI, a Liberty League championship and a playoff bid could go to the winner. The four-team race in the Liberty League makes my head spin, but either team helps their chances greatly with a victory over their rival.
Keith’s take: No. 4 Central at No. 12 Wartburg. I think you are all well aware by now where my Game of the Week is. Hampden-Sydney and Randolph-Macon play a huge rivalry game on the campus of my alma mater with a conference title and playoff bid on the line. But truthfully, Central-Wartburg and No. 3 St. John’s visit to No. 16 Bethel are more important. Both have wide-ranging playoff implications if the lower-ranked team forces its way into the 32-team field without knocking its 9-0 opponent out of the mix. Since I had to choose, I went with the game in Iowa, which is slightly more likely to produce a fantastic ending, since that’s pretty much the way Central likes ‘em all.
Pat’s take: No. 10 Wheaton at Illinois Wesleyan. This game, along with the game Keith chose, can impact two conference automatic bids, in this case the CCIW and the MIAA. Hope and Olivet, two of the three teams tied for first in the MIAA, played Wheaton and Illinois Wesleyan respectively and their opponents’ records are the tiebreaker that it appears will settle the automatic bid. Oh, and Wheaton can win the CCIW automatic bid with a victory, so that’s important too. IWU can win the automatic bid if it wins and North Central loses at Carthage.

Surprisingly Close Game
John’s take: Wheaton at Illinois Wesleyan. Last year, Wheaton hammered Illinois Wesleyan 49-14 at home en route to an appearance in the NCAA playoffs. In the CCIW preseason poll, the coaches selected Wheaton first and Illinois Wesleyan sixth. While IWU hasn’t had a winning season since 2002, the Titans are looking for a repeat of their home upset of Wheaton in 2005.
Keith’s take: St. Olaf at St. Thomas. Coming off an 85-point week, the 7-2 Oles probably can’t play their way into the postseason, and they know it. That could leave room for a sloppy performance against a 2-7 Tommies team that put up some serious offense in a 51-34 loss at St. John’s two weeks ago. There are some other key games that could be close, like Capital/Baldwin-Wallace, but that wouldn’t be much of a surprise.
Pat’s take: Moravian at No. 15 Muhlenberg. Not that I think Muhlenberg is going to lose this game, per se, but the rivalry has a little added bonus this year now that both teams are again in the same conference after a quarter-century. Moravian hasn’t had a bad season itself, coming into the game a 6-3, and could be fighting for an ECAC postseason “bowl” game, not to mention the spoiler aspect of knocking Muhlenberg out of a potential first- or even second-round home game. Picture a 17-13 game, depending on weather.

Top 25 team most likely to be upset
John’s take: No. 4 Central. The last three times the Dutch have gone on the road, they have come out with a victory of seven points or less, including a 37-34 triple-overtime thriller over Dubuque on Oct. 20. Only three of Central’s nine games this season have been decided by more than one score. Aside from a hiccup against Augsburg, Wartburg has been tough at home all season. I’m not sure how much magic the Dutch have left, if this game comes down to the wire, after so many nail-biters already.
Keith’s take: No. 9 Wabash. There are a bunch of top 25 teams who are playing for their playoff lives or even a postseason home game, but the 9-0 Little Giants might have wrapped up both in the North. DePauw can’t affect the playoff picture much, but at home and at 7-2, it’s no slouch, and won’t have trouble finding a reason to want to knock off its Monon Bell rival anyway.
Pat’s take: No. 19 UW-Eau Claire. When in doubt, go with the WIAC team, right? At 4-5, UW-Stout hasn’t been playing too badly after the offseason upheaval and these rivals, separated by 26 miles of I-94, have played some of their common opponents very favorably. Besides, Stout can play spoiler to Eau Claire’s faint playoff hopes.

They’ll be on your radar
John’s take: Cal Lutheran. After an 0-2 start under new coach Ben McEnroe, it appeared the Kingsmen would be bound for a rebuilding year. Since then, Cal Lu (5-0, 5-3) has won five out of its last six games and can clinch the SCIAC auto-bid to the NCAA playoffs with a victory at home over Redlands. Not bad for a program that has never been to the NCAA tournament.
Keith’s take: North Central. The Cardinals don’t even play the biggest CCIW game Saturday, but they can get their hands on a share of the conference title, unlike its opponent Carthage, which has an identical 7-2 record. While Wheaton is controlling its destiny against Illinois Wesleyan, North Central will have to motivate itself with hopes of a three-way tie.
Pat’s take: Curry. You heard it here first – the Colonels might be able to win a playoff game this season if they beat Coast Guard and maintain their lofty seeding. But that’s only because I can’t take Olivet again this week after picking them for Week 10.

Which game most deserves the “Biggest Little Game in America” designation that more than one rivalry claims?
John’s take: Having witnessed the Williams-Amherst rivalry first-hand (2002), I’m hard-pressed to pick against it. But, then again, what rivalry game sells out almost three weeks before the two teams take the field? The Cortaca Jug game between Ithaca and Cortland. It’s the hottest ticket in town when these two schools get together on the gridiron and tickets have sold out five times in the last six years. While Ithaca leads the all-time series, nine of the last 10 games have come down to the final minute and the last two have gone to overtime. Throw in the always miserable upstate New York weather in November, an always loud and boisterous crowd and lots of school spirit, and that’s what makes this rivalry great. (Full disclosure: I graduated from Ithaca and broadcast football at Cortland for four years).
Keith’s take: With ESPN’s College GameDay on site for Amherst-Williams, this one’s a no-brainer, at least for this Saturday.
Pat’s take: Someone has to stick up for Wabash-DePauw, right? Best part about the Monon Bell game is that it outdraws Cortaca and the schools somehow manage to pick up the pieces after this game and still compete in the playoffs. The NESCAC folks would have you believe that you can’t possible then go back and play in a playoff game after competing in the big season-ending rivalry, but Wabash would beg to differ. DePauw would beg to be able to beg to differ, but that’s a different story.

Who will have Pool C hopes surprisingly dashed?
John’s take: Bethel. A Week 1 loss to Buena Vista dooms the Royals if they cannot get past the Johnnies on Saturday. While it is going to be possible for a two-loss team to make the playoffs, I’m not sure if the Royals will be one of those teams. Bethel’s fate could be decided by how things play out in southern California and upstate New York.
Keith’s take: Redlands. Despite going 7-1 to this point with a non-conference road win against a likely playoff team, Whitworth, it appears even a victory over Cal Lutheran won’t guarantee the Bulldogs a spot in the playoffs. A three-way tie would be broken by the Rose Bowl rule, rewarding the spot to the team who has been to the playoffs least recently, sending the Kingsmen to the postseason even if they pick up their fourth loss, unless 3-5 Whittier manages to knock off Occidental and make the Redlands-CLU winner the automatic qualifier. Too bad the Bulldogs’ 1 p.m. local kickoff leaves them time to get over to Whittier to watch Occidental agonizingly ruin their plans in a 7 p.m. game.
Pat’s take: Mt. St. Joseph. At 4-5, Thomas More is playing for a .500 record, there’s a local rivalry on the line and of course, the spoiler factor. The Saints have had moments of brilliance (10-9 loss to Geneva) but haven’t quite put it all together against a good team. Does Mt. St. Joseph not take the Bridge Bowl game seriously enough? Preserving a one-loss resume heading into Selection Sunday should be enough motivation.

What winless team takes advantage of its last chance to get off the schneid?
John’s take: King’s. Only one time in the D3football.com era has King’s finished below .500. This year, the Monarchs have gone winless in nine contests. They’ve been close, a two-point loss to Hampden-Sydney, a three-point loss versus Albright and a four-point loss to Lebanon Valley. For a program that’s usually in the top half of the MAC, I can’t see King’s going 0-10. The Monarchs are 6-2 against FDU-Florham in their last eight meetings. Look for Tore Alaimo and company to go out on a winning note.
Keith’s take: Bates. Boy, it’s hard to really get behind any team that hasn’t pulled one together by this point. Playing for a win is sure to keep the competitive flames stoked, but confidence can go out the window quick if the game gets off to a bad start. In the case of the Bobcats, they just seem to have one of the most beatable opponents in 2-5 Hamilton, which scores a paltry 10.7 points per game.
Pat’s take: Juniata. It didn’t get any better for the Eagles after moving from the MAC to the Centennial and after losing two of the first four games by one score, Juniata has lost its last five by an average of three touchdowns. Juniata needs this one.

It’s that time of year again, our first playoff projections.

This is where we take the 22 automatic bids, 10 of which are not yet set, then figure out at-large bids, some of which will lose between now and Selection Sunday, then seed them and pair them up logically … or fiscally … or geographically … or randomly, depending on the bracket.

In doing this every year, we have to toe a fine line. We can call some conference races, leave some open, pretend we know what’s going to happen, or ignore what has yet to be played. This is an inexact science, but it’s an attempt to look at the entire field using the NCAA’s stated selection/seeding criteria. But you can’t simply try to project one bracket in isolation. How do you know if there are eight West teams getting into the field, and not seven or nine or 10?

First, the basics:

Thirty-two teams will form four eight-team brackets. And we know the champions of 22 conferences will get an automatic bid to the playoffs. Three bids (Pool B) are set aside for independents or members of non-automatic bid conferences. The remaining seven bids go to what’s called Pool C, which is everyone left over.

So how will the brackets be formed, who will play whom? That’s what we answer each week from here until Selection Sunday. For more info check out our Playoff FAQ.

Teams that have clinched playoff spots are in bold.

New Jersey Bracket
1. New Jersey (Pool A)
2. Curry (A)
3. St. John Fisher (C)
4. RPI (A)
5. Salisbury (B)
6. Hobart (C)
7. Hartwick (A)
8. Widener (A)
We tried projecting this bracket without figuring out who would win the Liberty League, but it wasn’t doable. So we projected Hobart and RPI to win their games, which gives RPI the automatic bid. Hartwick and St. John Fisher win in Week 11 and Hartwick gets the automatic bid. Salisbury gets moved into this bracket because there aren’t enough East teams that qualify.

Washington and Jefferson Bracket
1. Washington and Jefferson (A)
2. Wesley (B)
3. Muhlenberg (A)
4. Mary Hardin-Baylor (A)
5. Trinity, Texas (A)
6. Capital (C)
7. Randolph-Macon/Hampden-Sydney (A)
8. N.C. Wesleyan (A)
North Carolina Wesleyan can get to Washington and Jefferson within the prescribed 500 miles, and Capital can get to Muhlenberg as well. Interesting how when you lift Salisbury out of the bracket, you get the two Texas teams at 4-5.

Mount Union Bracket
1. Mount Union (A)
2. Wabash (A)
3. Case Western Reserve (B)
4. Wheaton, Ill. (A)
5. Franklin (A)
6. Mt. St. Joseph (C)
7. MIAA champ (A)
8. Concordia, Wis. (A)
The travel works out in this bracket, even from Mequon, Wis., to Alliance, Ohio. We qualified nine teams for the playoffs from the North Region, which filled this bracket after we moved Capital to the South.

UW-Whitewater Bracket
1. UW-Whitewater (A)
2. St. John’s (A)
3. Central (A)
4. St. Norbert (A)
5. Redlands (C)
6. Bethel (C)
7. Whitworth (C)
8. Cal Lutheran (A)
Alright, NCAA penny-pinching could rear its ugly head here. But even the NCAA couldn’t possibly make Redlands and Cal Lutheran play again, one week later, right? Right?? Let’s hope so, anyway. So we’re sending Whitworth to Redlands and Cal Lutheran to UW-Whitewater in the Danny Jones Reunion Bowl. Bethel can’t play St. John’s again, unfortunately for St. Norbert, because Norbert gets the call. Bethel would be at Central.

We end up with three teams with two regional losses in Pool C in this projection: Capital, Hobart and Bethel. Occidental, with one regional loss and the weakest opponents’ winning percentage among one-loss teams (currently .391), gets passed in the regional rankings when Redlands beats Cal Lutheran and gets left home. Waynesburg’s .424 is the second-lowest.

We’ll do this again at the end of the night on Saturday, heading into Selection Sunday.

The NCAA released its third 2007 regional rankings today.

Teams are listed with their regional record first, followed by their overall record. For more information about the playoff format and how participants are determined, check out our FAQ.

There will be one final set of regional rankings, prepared for Selection Sunday. However, we do not get to see them.

East Region
No. Name In-Region Overall
1. New Jersey 8-1 8-1
2. Curry 10-0 10-0
3. St. John Fisher 8-1 8-1
4. RPI 7-1 7-1
5. Hobart 7-2 7-2
6. Cortland State 6-2 7-2
7. Widener 6-2 7-2
8. Hartwick 7-2 7-2
9. Ithaca 7-2 7-2
10. Alfred 7-2 7-2

North Region
No. Name In-Region Overall
1. Mount Union 9-0 9-0
2. Wabash 9-0 9-0
3. Case Western Reserve 7-0 9-0
4. Wheaton (Ill.) 8-1 8-1
5. Franklin 8-1 8-1
6. Mount St. Joseph 8-1 8-1
7. Capital 7-2 7-2
8. Wittenberg 7-2 7-2
9. North Central 7-2 7-2
10. Carthage 7-2 7-2

South Region
No. Name In-Region Overall
1. Washington and Jefferson 6-0 9-0
2. Wesley 6-1 8-1
3. Muhlenberg 9-0 9-0
4. Mary Hardin-Baylor 8-1 8-1
5. Salisbury 4-1 8-1
6. Trinity (Texas) 7-1 8-1
7. Randolph-Macon 8-1 8-1
8. Millsaps 7-2 7-2
9. Hampden-Sydney 6-2 7-2
10. Waynesburg 6-1 7-2

West Region
No. Name In-Region Overall
1. UW-Whitewater 8-0 8-1
2. St. John’s 8-0 9-0
3. Central 8-0 9-0
4. St. Norbert 9-0 10-0
5. Bethel 8-1 8-1
6. Wartburg 8-1 8-1
7. Occidental 7-1 7-1
8. Redlands 6-1 7-1
9. Whitworth 7-1 7-2
10. UW-Eau Claire 4-2 7-2

Confused by tiebreakers? Oh yeah, definitely understandable. See, each conference sets its own rules for breaking ties for the automatic bid, and with the limited number of games played in any given football season, there’s not exactly a lot of data to work with.

So this week, in the Around the Nation podcast, Keith McMillan and Pat Coleman not only run down how the remaining 10 conferences’ automatic bids will be handed out, they run through the tiebreakers in leagues where they’ll be needed, and debate the merit of such tiebreakers in the first place. So get your primer on how the E8 or LL or MIAA will be won.

 

 Around the Nation Podcast [11:14m]: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

That’s where I am, anyway. Obviously there are great games with automatic bids on the line all over the place but I’m at this one, where Widener (6-2, 5-0) can wrap up the Middle Atlantic Conference automatic bid with a win against Albright (7-1, 5-0). Albright, Delaware Valley and Widener are all still in play in this league’s race, and Albright has yet to play either of the other two.

Elsewhere, we’ll be keeping an eye on at least nine other games where an automatic bid could be awarded, and more of the 19 remaining bids could be determined if the conference leaders get some help.

Here, it’s a chilly early afternoon, about 50 minutes before game time and standing at about 52 degrees. Widener’s Leslie C. Quick, Jr. Stadium is in a bowl and surrounded on three sides by threes. The home stands are in an impressive permanent grandstand, making for a nice atmosphere when this place is full, or at least crowded.

My first national-type Division III football game was in this stadium in 1998, the year before we launched D3football.com, as Widener hosted Lycoming in a battle of ranked teams. Widener led 13-2 with 3:03 left and had pinned Lyco on its 1-yard line before the Warriors rallied for a 15-13 win. Last time I was here was in 2002, when Widener beat Lycoming in overtime 20-14, converting its own blocked field goal into a touchdown in an ending similar to the Central/Linfield Miracle in the Mud.

On with the show, folks. Games already underway in the East, including the Wash U/Case game that keys Pool B hopes for several teams.