D3football Daily Dose

Not all Saturdays are created equal and this one clearly has more interesting games than most.

No.1 Mount Union and No. 4 Capital meet each other in a familiar situation with Mount Union as the favorite and Capital hoping to upset the Purple Powerhouse. These teams have had a handful of meetings with these same national rankings and none of the outcomes favor the Crusaders.

No. 17 Salisbury takes the field without several members of its starting defense against St. John Fisher who is without any margin for error if it has any chance at an at-large bid.

Elsewhere the only undefeated teams in the NJAC (Cortland-Montclair), SCIAC (Occidental-Redlands) and MIAC (Augsburg and Carleton) meet. No. 15 Case Western faces its toughest test in Wooster. Ditto for Wheaton (Ill.) against Augustana and Wabash against Wash U. Lycoming ’s resurgent offense meets Albright, which struggled to score against FDU-Florham last week while Del Val hosts Leb Val.

Plenty to talk about, plenty to follow. Have at it and enjoy a great day of football.

OK, you know what? We’ve got pride here at D3football.com, but not that much pride. We’ll trot out the ‘turning point’ thing once again, because heck, that’s what Saturday is in more places than not.

In a week where No. 1 plays No. 4 and can hardly garner the hype befitting such a matchup (Hey Purple Raiders, any kind of drama you can provide would be appreciated), we at least were able to bring you a No. 1 (or No. 4) expert from Ohio to help prime faithful readers for what to expect. Mark Grossman does color for Mount Union’s radio broadcast, and has an uncanny feel for the Ohio Athletic Conference.

So without further ado, Mark, publisher Pat Coleman and columnist Keith McMillan point you towards Triple Take, Turning Point Saturday Style:

(yes, we’ll make it stop)

Game of the Week
Mark’s take: No. 4 Capital at No. 1 Mount Union: This one is easily the game of the week, and in my opinion, the regular season game of the year! I expect this game to be a real dogfight like the recent playoff contests that Mount won by three points (34-31 in ’05 and 17-14 in ’06), not the 37-0 Mount win last season. And even last season’s rout is very misleading as Capital’s defense held MUC in check better than anyone last year (including Whitewater), to the tune of only 286 yards on a picture-perfect fall afternoon. The problem last season for Capital was an injury-riddled offense capped by no Marty Assmann at quarterback and no Derick Alexander at wide receiver. Both are now healthy for the nation’s fourth-ranked offense and are joined in the backfield by a 220-poiund running back (Dominic D’Andrea) averaging over five yards a carry. So expect some fireworks against a young Raider defense that returns only two starters (Daryl Ely at cornerback and Joe Millings at defensive end). Mount Union counters with Division III’s best backfield tandem in all-American tailback Nate Kmic and quarterback Greg Micheli, but little else experience-wise. But if you need a foundation to build on, coach Larry Kehres couldn’t ask for more than the NCAA’s fifth all-time leading rusher and a quarterback that is as dangerous with his legs as he is his arm. In the end, I expect the two-headed monster of Kmic and Micheli to be the difference in another OAC classic battle as the Raiders make the plays in the fourth quarter to win 34-24.
Keith’s take: Occidental at No. 18 Redlands. OK, wow. Well, you don’t dial up a guest expert to talk about what he doesn’t know about. I think I was pretty clear in Around the Nation that there are a dozen or so big games this week, but forced to choose, I’d go way out west and stay up late for Tigers-Bulldogs. Chose it by a hair over St. Norbert-Monmouth, and here’s why: If Mount Union or Capital have their one bad Saturday this week, either could recover. But the SCIAC and MWC don’t churn out playoff teams in pairs. If there’s a single game for all the chips (or marbles, if you prefer), these are them.
Pat’s take: Lebanon Valley at No. 13 Delaware Valley. At least, it should be closer than last year, a 49-13 loss. Unlike a Mount Union game, this actually has a chance of being close. Lebanon Valley beat Wilkes for the first time in 16 years last week and is plus-6 on turnovers this season while leading the MAC in total offense. And it’s not like Delaware Valley hasn’t played some exciting games already this season.

Surprisingly close game
Mark’s take: No. 9 UW-Eau Claire at UW-La Crosse Eau Claire might be ranked No. 9 and La Crosse might be 0-4, but I have a hard time believing that the Eagles are really as bad as their record indicates. I don’t expect UW-L to win, but history says most WIAC games are tight on the scoreboard.
Keith’s take: Birmingham-Southern at DePauw. Staring at a date with No. 19 Trinity (Texas) next week, will the Tigers be able to put aside last week’s 55-13 thrashing at Millsaps and be sharp against the Panthers? DePauw didn’t look like a conference champion or playoff team last week, but it’s not far fetched to envision a three-way tie atop the conference if everything breaks right. I could see a sluggish start and a game closer than the Tigers would like.
Pat’s take: East Texas Baptist at No. 16 Hardin-Simmons. ETBU had a respectable showing at St. John’s and has won three games against the bottom teams in the American Southwest Conference, but will need to find the holes in the Cowboy defense.

Most likely Top 25 team to get upset
Mark’s take: No. 6 Wheaton The D3 poll loves the undefeated Thunder and has yet to give the 3-1 Vikings a single vote, but I think these two traditional CCIW powers play a close one. Much was made of Augie’s offseason ditching of the venerable Wing-T, but the Vikings continue to move the ball on the ground, averaging 200 yards per game, which is only 18 yards per game behind league leader Wheaton. Defense was the biggest reason Augie struggled to finish 5-5 last season (17.6 points per game allowed), but the “D” looks to be solved as they have surrendered only 6.3 a game so far. Only a 13-9 loss to UW-Platteville ,in which the Vikings outgained UW-P 349 to 218, keeps this from being a matchup of unbeatens.
Keith’s take: No. 15 Case Western Reserve. So many top 25 teams are playing quality opponents, it would be hard to call their losses upsets. In the case of Case (oh, shut it), Wooster is easily the most accomplished opponent it’s faced so far. The Scots are giving up just eight points a game, and the Spartans have had little go wrong while averaging more than 48 points per game, with just three total turnovers. If Wooster’s defense causes a little frustration early, perhaps it becomes a situation where the Spartans — thinking they must remain perfect to stay in the Pool B playoff chase — begin to press, and instead unravel.
Pat’s take: No. 18 Redlands. The Bulldogs will need a better performance from Steve Smith, who completed 13 of 24 passes for 156 yards and was picked off twice in his first start in relief of Dan Selway. Selway is out with a broken foot. Occidental is a few steps up from La Verne. The Tigers have had three weeks to game-plan, coming off a bye and a 38-0 blanking of Claremont-Mudd-Scripps.

They’ll be on your radar
Mark’s take: Carleton. The 4-0 Knights have already matched their highest win total of any season in the past decade, but we still don’t know that much about them. Their Week 2 win versus Bethel caught my attention at the time, but Bethel is slogging along at 2-3 and hasn’t looked good doing it. This is the Knights’ week to prove they’re no fluke, when they host No. 22 Augsburg (4-0). Win this one and they’re in the Top 25 and well on the way to staking a claim to a playoff spot, as surprising as that sounds.
Keith’s take: Curry. Already looking like the class of the NEFC and with their biggest challenge, Plymouth State, still a couple weeks away, it’s easy for pollsters to lose the Colonels among all the big games and tight races. After a pair of less-than-convincing 7-point wins early, Curry has pulled away from its past three opponents, showing the form, especially defensively, of a team that warrants top 25 consideration.
Pat’s take: Kean. The Cougars are playing well and could hang in there a game behind Cortland State in the NJAC the rest of the season. Kean lost to Cortland 32-28 last week but has running back Jared Chunn seemingly coming into his own, averaging 156.2 yards per game, and Tom D’Ambrisi completing 68 percent of his passes with just two interceptions. Kean hosts Montclair State to close the season, a game that could well have playoff implications.

Of the conference races with Turning Point games, which one will be the most complicated?
Mark’s take: The logjam at the top of the Empire 8 is the easy choice, but I’m going to go with the MIAC. Two of the historic bottom feeders in the MIAC (Augsburg and Carleton) have surprisingly sprinted to two-game leads over conference giants St. John’s and Bethel, but the conference race is a long way from being over. Neither has played the Johnnies yet, nor Concordia-Moorhead (2-0 in-conference), so it’s very conceivable the MIAC champ could end with two losses and not be decided until the final week.
Keith’s take: The MAC. I agree, Mark, picking the Empire 8 was as easy as a 1-yard plunge. (If anyone mentions the Philadelphia Eagles, I swear I’m quitting the site.) The NFL team in Southeastern Pa. is actually a pretty good model for how I feel about all eight teams in this conference. With traditionally strong Wilkes bringing up the rear, and traditionally weak FDU-Florham looking plenty competitive (all four games decided by a TD or less), every MAC team looks talented enough to beat another, but it’s anyone’s guess if they’ll follow through. There have been five different MAC champions (all teams still in the conference) the past six seasons, which is just enough to make you wonder if this race will be undecided even after we figure out where Pa.’s 21 electoral college votes are going.
Pat’s take: The IIAC. I mean, let’s face it, at the end of Saturday either Loras or Buena Vista is going to be the unbeaten conference leader. That’s just bizarre. Wartburg still has a role to play in this race, as does Coe, which had Loras beat in Week 4.

Who will score more points, Hartwick or Linfield, Montclair State and Cortland State combined?
Mark’s take: Wow, this is a tough one. I’m going with the trifecta of Linfield, Montclair and Cortland simply because Hartwick faces an Alfred team that has been playing decent defense.
Keith’s take: The Trio. I’ll be making the six-hour drive to Cortland on Saturday morning (yes, Pat offered to have me fly this week; no, I did not book my plane ticket in time), and if somebody red doesn’t finish a few red-zone trips with touchdowns, I might strap on a helmet and pads and break out the ol’ free safety forearm shiver.
Pat’s take: Hartwick. Because it’s fun to consider the possibilities and I’m not convinced the teams that Alfred has shut down so far are all that. Jason Boltus is one of the premier players in Division III and Hartwick scores in bunches whenever he plays.

Wooster and Occidental are unbeaten and have a combined zero Top 25 votes. Will either of them get votes after this weekend?
Mark’s take: No, because they’ll both lose this week. Wooster barely beat 0-4 Earlham last week and only Denison by 11, whereas Case Western Reserve drilled Denison by 31. Expect the Scots first loss to come with a resounding “thud” at CWRU. Occidental’s first three opponents are a combined 2-10, making the Tigers’ road trip to Redlands (3-0) a significant upgrade in competition. While Redlands’ opponents haven’t been much better (3-8 overall), they’ve looked better than Occidental and are at home. Go with Redlands to down Occidental.
Keith’s take: Yes. But now that I said that, does that mean I have to vote for one of them next week just to be right?
Pat’s take: Yes. If either of them plays close against their ranked competition they have a chance to slide onto a ballot somewhere, perhaps in where the loser of Augsburg/Carleton or St. John Fisher/Salisbury drops off.

In this week’s Around the Nation podcast, Keith McMillan and Pat Coleman talk about the conference races that got more clearer, those that got less clear, and they take a first look at the race for the two Pool B playoff spots.

Hear the two D-III football experts talk about the weekend’s results, look at next week’s games, figure out life’s persistent questions and more.

First person who posts here that can correctly identify what regular part of the ATN Podcast the guys forgot to do this week gets plus-10 karma on the message board!

You can load the podcast page in iTunes or can also get this and any of our future Around the Nation podcasts automatically by subscribing to this RSS feed: http://www.d3football.com/dailydose/?feed=podcast

Or you can click the play button below to listen.

 

 Around the Nation Podcast [29:13m]: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

It’s Week 5 out of 11 in the Division III football regular season and make or break for several teams, even some who are just starting their conference schedule.

One Division III football player’s Facebook status refers to the weekend games as “heading to the office,” and that’s a lot of what this part of the season is about. Get your work done, take care of business, and wait for what else happens around you. Few teams are completely and totally eliminated from the playoffs (though many are realistically eliminated) so all you can do is plow ahead and get your own W’s.

Great games today which we’ve detailed in the Triple Take and on the front page. Let’s plow ahead, and fill everyone in on what you’re seeing or hearing elsewhere in our comments section.

Sometimes rough starts get rougher when conference play begins. In the case of 0-3 UW-La Crosse, for example, No.2 UW-Whitewater awaits. In conferences like the ODAC, NJAC and MIAC, the only chance a stumbling team has to get it together is against a traditional conference power.

We guarantee there’s no stumbling in this all-staff edition of your weekly primer. Well, at least no stumbling over each other, as D3Sports.com Deputy Managing Editor Gordon Mann, Publisher Pat Coleman and Columnist Keith McMillan are careful to each go their separate ways under each category. (For bonus points, try to guess who got first pick under each header by turning their answers in first! )

Check out which contests will be making waves on each coast and everywhere in between:

Game of the Week
Gordon’s take: No. 23 Willamette at Whitworth. If the Bearcats are going to capture the NWC’s first automatic bid to the NCAA playoffs, they will have to win on the road. Linfield lurks in Week 8, but first Willamette has to beat the defending conference champ on homecoming.
Pat’s take: No. 21 Hardin-Simmons at No. 3 Mary Hardin-Baylor. This game has the potential to be better than the rankings would suggest. The Crusaders have played two of the bottom teams in the conference since losing running back Quincy Daniels to injury but have been much better at the quarterback position than projected. But it’s still endemic upon Hardin-Simmons to stop UMHB, and while the Cowboys have improved over last season, they’ve still allowed 22 points or more in each game.
Keith’s take: DePauw at No. 13 Millsaps. It’s a shame it’s taken gaudy scores for voters to get on board with the Majors, but it’s happening, as they surged from No. 19 in last week’s poll. The Tigers haven’t scuffled as much as their last two finals might suggest, although they briefly trailed in the second half against Centre. The SCAC has been a three-way race in recent seasons, and for Millsaps to really grab voters’ attention, a home win against fellow unbeaten DePauw is essential.

Surprisingly close game
Gordon’s take: Lycoming at Widener. The defending MAC champs open conference play by hosting an opponent with whom they’ve played some wild games. Lycoming hasn’t challenged for the conference crown in a couple seasons but already showed it can play on the road by hanging with Ithaca. Keep an eye on Warrior sophomore Josh Kleinfelter who is averaging 134 rushing yards per game.
Pat’s take: No. 22 Wartburg at Buena Vista. The Beavers have put a couple of good performances up the past two weeks.
Keith’s take: Trine at Hope. From afar, with the Thunder 3-0 and the Flying Dutchmen 0-4, it looks like a mismatch, but no one in the MIAA would be surprised by a close one. Perennial contender Hope reaches for the stars in its non-conference scheduling, while Trine has not played nearly as well on the road as they have at home. Each side considers the AQ its ultimate goal, so expect this one to be a lot more of a slugfest than the records would indicate.

Most likely Top 25 team to get upset
Gordon’s take: No. 11 Washington & Jefferson. [Pat chose first]. Shoot, I was going to pick UW-Eau Claire, too. He who hesitates picks someone else. And Washington & Jefferson, who plays at Geneva, is “someone else” in a week without a lot of upset candidates.
Pat’s take: No. 9 UW-Eau Claire. The Blugolds haven’t shown the ability to put points on the board. (They scored 28 against Hope, compared to Carthage scoring 70 and Wheaton putting up 47.) While they may well beat UW-Oshkosh 13-7, I think it’s more likely Oshkosh puts enough together to win it.
Keith’s take: No. 5 Muhlenberg. W&J is gone too, eh? Okay then. No. 2 UW-Whitewater is a tempting pick against rival UW-La Crosse, but the Mules haven’t been pushed too hard, nor have they been flawless in a 3-0 start. Johns Hopkins is playing its first home game in a month, and is coming off a 33-10 loss to the Mules archrival, Moravian. You think the Bluejays were focused this week in practice?

They’ll be on your radar
Gordon’s take: UW-Stevens Point. The Pointers are 3-0 but it’s tough to know what to make of their three victories. Last week they beat Azusa Pacific who is usually solid and already beat UW-La Crosse. But we’ll know more if Stevens Point takes care of business on the road at UW-River Falls.
Pat’s take: Lycoming. Maybe it’s a bold pick, but even when Lycoming has been down in recent years, they have played Widener tough. I don’t see it being any different this week.
Keith’s take: Otterbein. With three wins under their belts, surrendering just seven points in each while scoring at least 37, the Cardinals are making bold statements. With Capital and Mount Union still a few weeks down the road, Otterbein must be consistently good against the OAC’s middle class. Another convincing win might catch some observing eyes nationally.

Who is more likely to sweeten a sour season — Bridgewater (vs. Hampden-Sydney), Bethel (vs. St. John’s) or Brockport (vs. Rowan)?
Gordon’s take: Brockport. The Rowan teams from the early part of this decade probably beat this Brockport team by 20-plus points. But they would’ve beaten Bridgewater State and William Paterson by larger margins than the 2008 version did, too. Rowan is still the favorite but the long drive from southern New Jersey to western New York gives the Golden Eagles a better shot at the upset.
Pat’s take: Bethel. The Royals have had a couple of tough losses, one of which it seemed they clearly outplayed their opponent (Wheaton) but lost in a rainstorm on a punt return. They are out of the running at the moment for the MIAC title but can put St. John’s in the same boat with a win.
Keith’s take: Bridgewater. Looks like I get the Eagles. Not a terrible proposition, though, since Bridgewater owned Hampden-Sydney until last season’s 38-31 road loss. Falling behind 34-0 in last week’s 17-point loss to Lycoming was a low point few Eagles in recent memory have seen, and a defeat would give Bridgewater more losses than it’s had since 1999. The now-humbled Eagles know the Tigers well and have no problems getting up for H-SC. Perhaps Bridgewater reaches into the past and pulls back a ODAC-shaking upset.

Who scores more, Wheaton, St. John Fisher or Salisbury?
Gordon’s take: Salisbury. The Sea Gulls didn’t win last week, but their triple-option offense was still impressive. Quarterback Ronnie Curley is one of, if not the, best quarterback I’ve ever seen at running this attack. I don’t envy Newport News who hosts a Salisbury team that is hungry for a bounce back victory.
Pat’s take: St. John Fisher. And I choose them not because Hartwick is the worst opponent but because the Hawks will likely put up some up points and force St. John Fisher to stay on the offensive a little longer than Wheaton will need to against North Park or Salisbury against Newport News.
Keith’s take: Wheaton. North Park, which is significantly less successful once the CCIW schedule begins, could be out of the game early. The Thunder might not be able to call off the dogs. Carroll of the MWC hung 55 on the Vikings.

Which surprise undefeated team stumbles?
Gordon’s take: MIT. It’s tempting to pick Trine since its opponent, Hope, plays a hard non-conference schedule just to prepare itself for MIAA play. But the Thunder’s win last week over Franklin pushes the spotlight elsewhere. MIT plays at Mass-Dartmouth who needs a win to avoid falling two games behind NEFC Boyd frontrunner Curry. Beavers lose by the skin of their teeth.
Pat’s take: Carleton. While the Knights’ emotions will be running high after St. Olaf took it to them to the tune of 85-28 last season, emotions won’t be quite enough.
Keith’s take: Elmhurst. A 3-0 start after a late summer coaching change is encouraging, but Augustana will be a notch above in quality of play.

Keith and I rank the conferences every summer and they get tweaked after we get through the bulk of non-conference play. We don’t have comments on the Around the Nation page yet (probably a 2009 item) but I thought we’d bring them over here to see what people thought.

1. WISCONSIN INTERCOLLEGIATE ATHLETIC CONFERENCE (WIAC)
Kickoff ‘08 ranking: 1st of 27
Non-conference record so far: 14-7
Verdict: Still at the top of the heap, given the depth (La Crosse and River Falls have accounted for five of the seven non-conference losses) and caliber of play and players. Whatever Northwestern (Minn.)’s win over River Falls took away in respect, UW-Whitewater and UW-Oshkosh’s wins over top 10 NAIA programs St. Xavier and Ohio Dominican restored.

2. OHIO ATHLETIC CONFERENCE (OAC)
Kickoff ‘08 ranking: 2nd
Non-conference record so far: 7-3
Verdict: Heidelberg, Otterbein adding weight to OAC’s usually tough top half, but conference still can’t match the WIAC’s strength from top to bottom.

3. AMERICAN SOUTHWEST CONFERENCE (ASC)
Kickoff ‘08 ranking: 3rd
Non-conference record so far: 8-8
Verdict: Hardin-Simmons’ early resurgence keeps ASC up high, though Mississippi College’s loss to Millsaps was a bad one.

4. COLLEGE CONFERENCE OF ILLINOIS AND WISCONSIN (CCIW)
Kickoff ‘08 ranking: 5th
Non-conference record so far: 19-5
Verdict: Wheaton, North Central, Elmhurst and Illinois Wesleyan are a combined 12-0 and only 1-2 North Park has a losing record. The Thunder beat Bethel and the Cardinals beat Ohio Northern in the most significant non-conference games.

5. EMPIRE 8 (E8)
Kickoff ‘08 ranking: 4th
Non-conference record so far: 10-8
Verdict: St. John Fisher’s 33-3 loss to Mount Union of the OAC is the only significant non-conference result, but this is the same conference that sent three teams to the playoffs last season, so it holds its ground for the most part.

6. MINNESOTA INTERCOLLEGIATE ATHLETIC CONFERENCE (MIAC)
Kickoff ‘08 ranking: 7th
Non-conference record so far: 13-2
Verdict: Only non-conference losses have been to now-ranked teams (Concordia-Moorhead to Willamette, Bethel to Wheaton). Depth, as seven of nine teams are off to winning starts.

7. NORTHWEST CONFERENCE (NWC)
Kickoff ‘08 ranking: 6th
Non-conference record so far: 11-10
Verdict: Championship days of 2004 and 1999 looking more distant, but first automatic playoff bid should keep conference play spirited. In key non-conference matchups, NWC went 1-1 vs. MIAC, 0-2 vs. WIAC and 0-1 vs. ASC. Redlands of the SCIAC also dealt Whitworth a convincing defeat.

8. NEW JERSEY ATHLETIC CONFERENCE (NJAC)
Kickoff ‘08 ranking: 8th
Non-conference record so far: 3-4
Verdict: Top team no longer an automatic Stagg Bowl contender, but conference is stronger top to bottom, even with new additions.

9. MIDDLE ATLANTIC CONFERENCE (MAC)
Kickoff ‘08 ranking: 15th
Non-conference record so far: 13-11
Verdict: Big move up the rankings is a bit deceiving, since middle group of conferences are very evenly matched. MAC gets the edge by virtue of its record so far, including a 4-2 record vs. the ACFC, including Delaware Valley’s two big wins over then-top-10 Wesley and Salisbury. Six 2-1 teams have helped MAC go 2-2 vs. Centennial. Against the ODAC, USAC and NJAC, the MAC is 2-1 vs. each, plus 1-0 vs. the Liberty League but 0-3 vs. the Empire 8.

10. ATLANTIC CENTRAL FOOTBALL CONFERENCE (ACFC)
Kickoff ‘08 ranking: 9th
Non-conference record so far: 6-6
Verdict: ACFC goes as Wesley and Salisbury go, and each has a key MAC win (Widener, Albright) and loss (Del Val).

11. CENTENNIAL CONFERENCE (CC)
Kickoff ‘08 ranking: 11th
Non-conference record so far: 10-8
Verdict: Four of the eight losses are by the bottom two teams, Gettysburg and Juniata. Illustrating the parity among middle conferences, CC is 8-8 combined against the MAC, ODAC and Liberty League.

12. OLD DOMINION ATHLETIC CONFERENCE (ODAC)
Kickoff ‘08 ranking: 12th
Non-conference record so far: 14-9
Verdict: Success came early in non-conference schedule, with five wins against the USAC in Week 1. ODAC is 3-2 vs. Centennial, but the CC took the even matchups (Franklin & Marshall 24, Washington & Lee 0; Johns Hopkins 39, Randolph-Macon 31, 3OT).

13. LIBERTY LEAGUE (LL)
Kickoff ‘08 ranking: 13th
Non-conference record so far: 10-10
Verdict: In the middle of the 27 ranked conferences, LL is .500 against modest competition so far. Hobart’s win over Carnegie Mellon kept the LL in front of the UAA.

14. UNIVERSITY ATHLETIC ASSOCIATION (UAA)
Kickoff ‘08 ranking: 14th
Non-conference record so far: 8-5
Verdict: Four-team UAA is 5-2 in the first season of its scheduling agreement with the NCAC, with Chicago accounting for both defeats. Washington U.’s 30-27 win against Wittenberg of the NCAC is a significant non-conference win.

15. SOUTHERN COLLEGIATE ATHLETIC CONFERENCE (SCAC)
Kickoff ‘08 ranking: 18th
Non-conference record so far: 9-6
Verdict: Trinity and Millsaps account for three of the wins in a 4-1 mark vs. the ASC, and the ASC teams beaten have a combined 2-10 record. The rest of the SCAC’s non-conference wins have come against teams from the HCAC, SLIAC and outside Division III.

16. IOWA INTERCOLLEGIATE ATHLETIC CONFERENCE (IIAC)
Kickoff ‘08 ranking: 10th
Non-conference record so far: 6-8
Verdict: Slow start and lack of a dominant top 25 team hurt the IIAC more than any other conference in our re-ranking, but there’s still not much difference in strength among the middle third of Division III conferences. The IIAC could get credit for much of its damage coming against the MIAC (0-4) and CCIW (1-1), but it was only 1-2 against the MWC. The other four wins were against the Northern Athletics Conference, the UMAC and a non-division team.

17. PRESIDENTS’ ATHLETIC CONFERENCE (PAC)
Kickoff ‘08 ranking: 17th
Non-conference record so far: 8-10
Verdict: For a nine-team conference, the depth isn’t there in terms of power teams. It’s Washington & Jefferson and the occasional challenge. PAC teams are 0-4 vs. the OAC, 0-2 vs. the CC and 1-1 vs. the ACFC. The wins are against teams from the NCAC, HCAC, UAA plus an independent and a non-Division III.

18. USA SOUTH ATHLETIC CONFERENCE (USAC)
Kickoff ‘08 ranking: 16th
Non-conference record so far: 10-12
Verdict: Bulk of where they’re placed is the result of a 5-7 record against ODAC teams. Three wins came against independents or non-Division III teams, while the USAC is 1-2 vs. the MAC and 0-2 vs. the SLIAC.

19. SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTERCOLLEGIATE ATHLETIC CONFERENCE (SCIAC)
Kickoff ‘08 ranking: 21st
Non-conference record so far: 8-6
Verdict: A 5-6 mark vs. the NWC is decent, and Redlands has bowled a couple non-conference strikes, against Dubuque of the IIAC (46-9) and Whitworth of the NWC (38-7). But three of the SCIAC’s non-conference wins have come against Lewis & Clark and Principia, who haven’t beaten a Division III team other than each other since 2004.

20. NORTH COAST ATHLETIC CONFERENCE (NCAC)
Kickoff ‘08 ranking: 19th
Non-conference record so far: 7-11
Verdict: Beyond the top teams, the strength is questionable, and even the numbers back it up: 2-5 vs. the UAA, 1-3 vs. the PAC. The two wins against the MIAA were Wittenberg beating defending champ Olivet and Denison beating Kalamazoo.

21. MICHIGAN INTERCOLLEGIATE ATHLETIC ASSOCIATION (MIAA)
Kickoff ‘08 ranking: 22nd
Non-conference record so far: 11-16
Verdict: It wasn’t just Trine’s win against HCAC champ Franklin that moved the conference up a spot. MIAA teams are 6-2 against the HCAC this season. They are also 0-7 against the CCIW and winless against the PAC, IIAC, OAC and WIAC.

22. HEARTLAND COLLEGIATE ATHLETIC CONFERENCE (HCAC)
Kickoff ‘08 ranking: 20th
Non-conference record so far: 10-12
Verdict: The rise of Franklin to give Mount St. Joseph a consistent challenger and top 25 threat helped last season, but re-ranking was not as kind. The 2-6 MIAA mark was offset by a 2-1 mark against the OAC, but the overall win total is less impressive than it looks. Its three wins against the NCAC were all against struggling Earlham.

23. MIDWEST CONFERENCE (MWC)
Kickoff ‘08 ranking: 23rd
Non-conference record so far: 5-4
Verdict: Monmouth’s win against Loras of the IIAC was intriguing, but the MWC is judged by its most successful team, St. Norbert. Wartburg defeated the Green Knights 44-20 in the MWC’s most significant chance to make a move upward.

24. NEW ENGLAND FOOTBALL CONFERENCE (NEFC)
Kickoff ‘08 ranking: 24th
Non-conference record so far: 0-6
Verdict: The good vibes from Curry’s playoff win against the Empire 8 champion last season can only go so far; One of the other 15 teams must win a non-conference game at some point, although chances are few.

25. UPPER MIDWEST ATHLETIC CONFERENCE (UMAC)
Kickoff ‘08 ranking: 27th
Non-conference record so far: 7-6
Verdict: Down to five teams, including brand new St. Scholastica, Northwestern (Minn.)’s defeat of UW-River Falls of the WIAC is alone enough for a bump up a couple notches.

26. ST. LOUIS INTERCOLLEGIATE ATHLETIC CONFERENCE (SLIAC)
Kickoff ‘08 ranking: 26th
Non-conference record so far: 8-13
Verdict: The addition of former independents LaGrange and Huntingdon give conference travel budgets a boost, but it’s done the same for the SLIAC’s profile in its first season back on the football field since 1999. The other six teams, however, are just 4-12 in non-conference action.

27. NORTHERN ATHLETICS CONFERENCE (NATHC)
Kickoff ‘08 ranking: 25th
Non-conference record so far: 4-20
Verdict: With five teams at 0-3 and only 2-1 Aurora with a winning record, this new mix of former Illini-Badger Football Conference, UMAC and MIAA teams has a long way to climb.

Every preseason we rank the conferences for Kickoff, and while the rankings are based mostly on last season and a little on projections, as games get played things tend to change.

It’s clear the MAC is moving back up the conference pecking order. Delaware Valley has forced its way into the lead story twice in three weeks, something which we would rarely do in September. But who is falling based on the first four weeks?

Delaware Valley posed an interesting conundrum, too, in a week without many upsets, in forcing its way into the Top 25. So Keith and I discuss that, some other teams that could get in, games that are getting onto the radar and falling below them, and more in this week’s Around the Nation podcast.

Happy Monday morning, everyone. Listen in while you’re doing your TPS reports and try not to think about the economy.

 

 Around the Nation Podcast [31:51m]: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

It seems strange to say that already, but two teams who went deep in the playoffs last year need wins today.

Unranked Bethel has two loses and needs a win at Concordia-Moorhead to avoid falling out of the MIAC race early. That’s just one of several intriguing games, including St. John’s trying to bounce back against Gustavus Adolphus and St. Olaf and Augsburg dueling to keep their undefeated stature.

No. 11 St. John Fisher starts conference play in the Empire 8 hosting No. 16 Ithaca. The Bombers might need this game more psychologically given how the Cards have beaten them recently, but the Cards need this one to control their own playoff destiny. If they lose here, do you like their chances to run the table, including beating No. 6 Salisbury? Me neither.

Check out the scoreboard and the post pattern pages for the MIAC and Empire 8, particularly the latter. I guarantee they will keep you updated and entertained.

Before Pat and Keith were ever colleagues at D3football.com, they were on opposite sides of Catholic/Randolph-Macon clashes, at about the time when the two teams began to have thrilling enough games to begin calling it a rivalry. That must have the boys a little giddy this week, so for our weekly Triple Take look at highlights from Saturday’s lineup, we brought in the steady hand of Around the mid-Atlantic columnist Ryan Tipps. Because someone’s got to give some serious analysis while the jokesters yuk it up.

Game of the Week
Ryan’s take: No. 6 Salisbury at Delaware Valley. The last time the Aggies played at home, they felled one of D-III’s predicted titans of 2008. That team, Wesley, also happens to be the biggest conference rival of Salisbury. When it comes to using a common opponent to predict the strength of teams, it doesn’t get any more straight-forward than this. At stake for Delaware Valley is proof that it could be the biggest threat to the rest of the MAC teams. For Salisbury, at stake is one of seven crucial regional games that will go a long way toward a fragile Pool B bid.
Keith’s take: No. 16 Ithaca at No. 11 St. John Fisher. We try not to double up picking the same game, but I think this is pretty obviously the G.O.T.W. for Week 4. I mentioned it a bit in Around the Nation, but otherwise Pat can do the heavy lifting …
Pat’s take: No. 16 Ithaca at No. 11 St. John Fisher. Ithaca does seem a little bit more put together at this point but with Dan Juvan playing on a bad right ankle and wearing a protective boot this week, plus St. John Fisher having the home field, I think that levels things out a bit. Plus, repeat after me, there’s no love lost when these two teams met. That’s from our Sportscaster Clichés 101 textbook. Bet you thought I was going to say something about throwing out record books. Hah! Not that predictable.

Surprisingly close game
Ryan’s take: Gettysburg at Muhlenberg. The Bullets’ 0-3 record is highly deceiving. Muhlenberg is ranked fifth in the country, but Gettysburg has been playing good teams with surprising intensity. Gettysburg traded last year’s running shoes for this year’s throwing arm, but whether that can penetrate the Mules’ stout defense is the biggest question mark.
Keith’s take: WPI at RPI. I never get this category right, but it’s about highlighting a good game, not me being right. Worcester Polytech has given up just 17 points in the two wins since their five-overtime opener against Mass-Dartmouth. RPI is heading into Game 3 of a nine-game slate and has one fewer game under its belt. If both defenses are playing as well as they have been (WPI allows 250 yards per game, RPI 272), it should be a good one.
Pat’s take: No. 14 Franklin at Trine. The MIAA has gone a long time between signature wins – in fact, I can’t name one at the moment. But Trine has looked good so far and Franklin has drifted up fairly high in the rankings, especially for an HCAC team.

Most likely Top 25 team to get upset
Ryan’s take: No. 17 Cortland State. Armed with a budding star in freshman quarterback Thomas D’Ambrisi, Kean is in prime position to play the spoiler in the NJAC. The Cougars’ first upset starts here.
Keith’s take: No. 6 Salisbury. I don’t have high hopes for anyone playing a top 25 team this week, but Delaware Valley will come in confident and well-rested after knocking off then-No. 3 Wesley two weeks ago. With the extra week to practice stopping the option and attacking the 3-3-5, the Aggies could pull it off.
Pat’s take: No. 19 Millsaps. Does Rhodes have the defense to slow down the Majors’ offense? Perhaps not, but with Millsaps outscoring opponents 39-9 this year and Rhodes’ defense having allowed just 14 points this season, repeat after me, something’s gotta give. That’s our second sportscaster cliché for the day. Thanks for playing!

They’ll be on your radar
Ryan’s take: Christopher Newport. A delayed opener, an uneasy team and a top 10 opponent. Last week the Captains were two steps behind in a three-step race. This week, against Wilkes, will be a better and more balanced showcase for CNU with conference play on the horizon.
Keith’s take: Catholic. At 3-0 and quietly poised to contend in the wide-open ODAC, the Cardinals must defeat Randolph-Macon, which has become quite a rival. The teams haven’t had a game decided by more than 10 points since 2003. R-MC has struggled, leaving an opening for CUA to be the team to push defending champion Hampden-Sydney.
Pat’s take: Wooster. Although, the Scots should be already, even before the trip to Denison. They’re 2-0 and have outscored opponents 47-8.

Which of last week’s West Region upset victims bounces back the strongest?
Ryan’s take: St. John’s. The Johnnies won’t nail a lopsided victory, but they will gain confidence – and maybe a better understanding of their quarterback situation – against the currently undefeated Gusties.
Keith’s take: St. John’s. Sorry to be a copycat, but the Johnnies don’t lose often, and rarely twice in a row. Gustavus might give St. John’s a run, but I’d be surprised if it were a tight game in the final minutes.
Pat’s take: Central. Albion has won three of its past 13 games, prime for a Central get-well card.

Which long losing streak ends this week?
Ryan’s take: North Park. Dating back to last season, the Vikings have limped through 10 straight losses entering their game against Benedictine. North Park’s most apparent weakness is defending the run. But the team’s solid pass defense should match up well against the Eagles, who have gained almost twice as many yards throwing the ball this season that they have running it.
Keith’s take: Cornell. I’m reaching, but eventually the Rams have to catch a break, right? After 22 IIAC losses in a row, maybe No. 22 Wartburg comes in riding high after the Central win and gets caught napping. By a score of 22-21. This is the topsy-turvy IIAC, after all, it’s not impossible.
Pat’s take: Buffalo State. There just aren’t many long losing streaks left, as Keith pointed out in Around the Nation. I’m going to cast my lot with the Bengals, who have lost eight in a row in heading to Western Connecticut. The Bengals did roll up 278 yards on the ground in a 42-32 loss to TCNJ this past week.

Who wins the Guru Bowl? That would be Pat’s alma mater (Catholic U.) at Keith’s alma mater (Randolph-Macon).
Ryan’s take: Randolph-Macon. It’s certainly hard to ignore a Catholic team that is undefeated and at the opposite end of the conference ladder as R-MC. Both teams are more balanced offensively than they have been in past years, but it’s the Yellow Jackets that have a more threatening defensive secondary and should be able to rein in Catholic quarterback Keith Ricca’s well-defined receiving corps.
Keith’s take: Catholic. Darn. I already said I’d be watching Catholic. Of course I’m pulling for Randolph-Macon. I mean, not professionally, just personally. Well, maybe I could make a case for professionally, since R-MC bouncing back after a rough start would make them a compelling team to follow. I’ve been following this rivalry for a lot of years now, and it tends to alternate years. So my “pick” is based on that. Plus, it makes me appear really fair and balanced!
Pat’s take: Catholic. I have to take this, right? Make sure to tell the guys to remember John Butler knocking down a pass at the end of the game to win in 1994, or Bob Frole pulling down a two-point conversion to tie the 1995 game 50-50.

Because of concerns regarding the increasing cost of travel, the NCAA Division III championships committee pushed back a recommendation to increase the playoff roster size from 52 to 56 players.

“The rationale for adding another baseball player to the roster, and four more players to the football roster, is valid,” Redlands athletic director Jeff Martinez, the chairman of the committee, said in a story in the NCAA News. “The games have changed — in baseball, the need is relief pitching; and football is a vertical game with more receivers, more personnel packages.

“But, you have to weigh, is it more important to put more people on every sideline, or to be able to afford an additional charter flight or two when air-travel conditions make doing so unavoidable? We cannot control the air situation, and we have every indication that it’s going to get more challenging before it gets less challenging.”

It will have to wait until the next budget cycle, in 2010-11.