D3football Daily Dose

We’re a little more than an hour from kickoff on the three Eastern Time Zone games Saturday, in Alliance, Ohio; Crawfordsville, Ind.; and Cortland, N.Y.

D3football.com will be coming to you live from the home of the Red Dragons with audio at noon, and will cap the day with a broadcast of UW-Whitewater at Willamette at 3 p.m. The defending national champions and the West No. 1 seed have the “airwaves” to themselves in a broadcast that’s not online elsewhere, and doesn’t feature live stats or video (that we know of).

If one of the four Central Time Zone games is what you’re after, we’ll be around to chat and provide updates about those too.

Links to video (from Millsaps and Monmouth), live stats (from Mount Union, Wabash, Mary Hardin-Baylor and North Central) and audio from all eight games are on our scoreboard page.

The floor is open. Have at it.

In Week 13, the round of 16 is often where we separate the proverbial men from the boys; where we find out who’s OK with taking one playoff win back to campus and who has a real shot at getting to Salem.

Of course, these are not exactly dog matchups with obvious favorites and likely losers. Some powerful teams very capable of advancing are going to bow out on Saturday because they’re matched up against similarly powerful teams. Makes the job of predicting final scores pretty difficult.

But then again, even “experts” don’t expect to call every game correctly, and what fun would the playoffs be if we could? The surprises are as interesting to us as they are to you, and the ones we can’t call (but try to anyway) are what makes us appreciate the sort-it-out-on-the-field system we have.

Though it isn’t hard to keep track, as Ryan Tipps went 12-4 last week with correct picks on three of the four No. 7 seeds that advanced, while Pat Coleman went 11-5 and Keith McMillan 10-6, these picks are really for your gratification, not ours. We’re setting the expectation, but teams do the unexpected every week, and frankly, we expect that too.

If you want to taunt us next week for a score we fail to accurately predict, knock yourself out. Hindsight, of course, is 20-20. If you really want to impress, use the comments section below to guess the scores of this week’s games yourselves.

Our expectations, compiled without consulting each other, from the westernmost bracket east:

No. 5 UW-WHITEWATER at No. 1 WILLAMETTE
Keith: Whitewater, 28-21
Ryan: Whitewater, 27-24
Pat: Willamette, 38-34

No. 7 WARTBURG at No. 3 MONMOUTH
Keith: Wartburg, 23-21
Ryan: Wartburg, 21-14
Pat: Wartburg, 28-25

No. 5 WASHINGTON & JEFFERSON at No. 1 MILLSAPS
Keith: Millsaps, 41-31
Ryan: Millsaps, 38-21
Pat: Millsaps, 45-24

No. 7 WESLEY at No. 2 MARY HARDIN-BAYLOR
Keith: Wesley, 21-20
Ryan: Wesley, 34-24
Pat: UMHB, 35-31

No. 5 FRANKLIN at No. 1 NORTH CENTRAL
Keith: North Central, 35-34
Ryan: North Central, 45-38
Pat: North Central, 51-45

No. 7 WHEATON at No. 6 WABASH
Keith: Wheaton, 17-13
Ryan: Wheaton, 31-27
Pat: Wheaton, 28-24

No. 4 HOBART at No. 1 MOUNT UNION
Keith: Mount Union, 54-23
Ryan: Mount Union, 52-10
Pat: Mount Union, 42-10

No. 7 CURRY at No. 3 CORTLAND STATE
Keith: Cortland State, 24-14
Ryan: Cortland State, 31-17
Pat: Curry, 31-27

As with last week, if anyone wants to put together a composite expectation or chart the unanimous vs. split picks, feel free.

A lot of things went according to plan this week. Triple Take was a more accurate predictor of who would win than the NCAA’s actual seedings were.

And yes, all four No. 7 seeds advanced.

Plus, Keith McMillan was at the bracket’s biggest shootout, between Franklin and Otterbein. But we run through the games in all four brackets plus take a first look ahead at the second round in this week’s Around the Nation Podcast.

You can load the podcast page in iTunes or can also get this and any of our future Around the Nation podcasts automatically by subscribing to this RSS feed: http://www.d3football.com/dailydose/?feed=podcast

Or you can click the play button below to listen.

 

 Around the Nation Podcast [40:08m]: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

I’m in Naperville, Ill.; Keith McMillan is in Westerville, Ohio; John McGraw is in Geneva, N.Y.; and Frank Rossi is in Belton, Texas. And there are photographers elsewhere and of course, your eyes are everywhere.

Twelve weeks into the Division III football season, and while us Triple Takers were fairly unanimous with our first-round predictions, there are still lingering questions.

We all think Wheaton will win, but here’s what Trine has on its side. Trine has a 10-game home winning streak going and hasn’t lost at Shive Field since a 21-7 loss to Hope on Oct. 28, 2006. That’s another era in Trine/Tri-State football, to be sure.

We all picked Hardin-Simmons to lose to Mary Hardin-Baylor. I know I looked at the last meeting and took into account that Mary Hardin-Baylor is really banged up. But we all picked the home team to lose, and that’s a red flag. This game is too close to call, and I think our scores reflected that. That’s also why we sent a broadcast crew, since we think this is going to be a great game.

Plus, there’s the weather. It should hold scores down across the North Central and Mount Union bracket. Is it enough to prompt an upset? There aren’t many games being played on grass today, but the ball will still be affected.

We’ll update. You’ll update. It’ll be a great time. Madness on!

Week 12 is here, and if you’re anything like me, the annual let’s-all-start-at-noon 16-game smackdown is your favorite Saturday of the season. There are ECAC bowls and makeup games too, but in all honesty, the Walnut and Bronze is what we play (or watch) for, and one of the 32 teams in the field will be in Salem on Dec. 20 hoisting it.

You might not need an expert to tell you that the No. 1 team in the D3football.com Top 25 is expected to win it all. But expected outcomes in the first-round matchups are less certain, especially if your vision is clouded by the love of a particular team or the lack of knowledge of much outside your home conference.

It is with that in mind that Pat Coleman, Ryan Tipps and I give you our playoff score predictions. These are not “lines,” and this is not a contest between the three of us. It’s an experiment in expectation vs. outcome.

Simply put, the three of us separately guesstimate what Saturday’s 16 final scores will be. In some cases, our expectations will be remarkably similar. In others, they’ll differ. Everything the three of us think will happen won’t, but at least you’ll know a stunning result when you see it.

MOUNT UNION (East) BRACKET
No. 8 Randolph-Macon at No. 1 Mount Union
Keith: Mount Union, 44-7
Ryan: Mount Union, 63-7
Pat: Mount Union, 63-6

No. 5 Lycoming at No. 4 Hobart
Keith: Lycoming, 13-12
Ryan: Lycoming, 24-14
Pat: Hobart, 14-10

No. 6 Plymouth State at No. 3 Cortland State
Keith: Cortland State, 24-13
Ryan: Cortland State, 31-17
Pat: Cortland State, 32-14

No. 7 Curry at No. 2 Ithaca
Keith: Ithaca, 42-21
Ryan: Ithaca, 42-13
Pat: Ithaca, 48-7

NORTH CENTRAL (North) BRACKET
No. 8 Thomas More at No. 1 North Central
Keith: North Central, 33-10
Ryan: North Central, 31-21
Pat: North Central, 45-14

No. 5 Franklin at No. 4 Otterbein
Keith: Otterbein, 30-27
Ryan: Otterbein, 37-14
Pat: Otterbein, 35-20

No. 6 Wabash at No. 3 Case Western Reserve
Keith: Case Western Reserve, 15-12
Ryan: Wabash, 34-28
Pat: Wabash, 35-28

No. 7 Wheaton at No. 2 Trine
Keith:Wheaton, 27-24
Ryan: Wheaton, 24-23
Pat: Wheaton, 38-21

WILLAMETTE (West) BRACKET
No. 2 Occidental at No. 1 Willamette
Keith: Willamette, 34-23
Ryan: Willamette, 31-17
Pat: Willamette, 41-27

No. 6 St. John’s at No. 5 UW-Whitewater
Keith: UW-Whitewater, 28-14
Ryan: UW-Whitewater, 17-13
Pat: UW-Whitewater, 24-14

No. 7 Wartburg at No. 4 UW-Stevens Point
Keith: UW-Stevens Point, 14-13
Ryan: Wartburg, 21-14
Pat: UW-Stevens Point, 17-3

No. 8 Aurora at No. 3 Monmouth
Keith: Monmouth, 38-20
Ryan: Monmouth, 42-31
Pat: Monmouth, 30-13

MILLSAPS (South) BRACKET
No. 8 LaGrange at No. 1 Millsaps
Keith: Millsaps, 49-17
Ryan: Millsaps, 45-10
Pat: Millsaps, 63-3

No. 6 Christopher Newport at No. 5 Washington & Jefferson
Keith: W&J, 28-21
Ryan: W&J, 34-31
Pat: W&J, 24-21

No. 7 Wesley at No. 4 Muhlenberg
Keith: Wesley, 21-20
Ryan: Wesley, 31-20
Pat: Wesley, 31-23

No. 3 Hardin-Simmons at No. 2 Mary Hardin-Baylor
Keith: Hardin-Simmons, 20-18
Ryan: Hardin-Simmons, 27-24
Pat: Hardin-Simmons, 38-35

Anyone who wants to average the scores to come up with a composite “expectation,” go right ahead.

Thirty-two teams are preparing for NCAA playoff games and a handful of others are readying for other postseason experiences. Others headed for the offseason with a warm feeling from beating an archrival in the final game, or breaking a streak of losing seasons, finishing on a hot streak or any of a bunch of ways to gather some momentum going into the offseason.

And then there’s a fairly large group at the other end as well, teams whose seasons ended on a down note. That doesn’t include just RPI, Redlands, Montclair State and the others who played their way out of a likely playoff bid with Week 11 losses, but teams who were quickly out of the playoff running altogether.

Or winless, even.

Such was the fate of Colorado College, along with McMurry, Principia, Maranatha Baptist, Massachusetts Maritime and Cornell. And if you remember from early on in the season, Colorado College freshman Chris Jarmon was writing on his blog, The D3 Experience, about the season.

Reading back on it now, you can sense the frustration. This was from a post heading into the final game:

We’re 0-8 now, and just saying that feels strange. It’s hard to believe that with all of the talent and confidence we entered the season with, we’ve been unable to win a single game. I feel especially bad for our seniors, who have busted their tails for four years and deserve better.

For all of those out there who feel that pain, good luck this offseason. Don’t give up. It can get better. But college football, at any level, is hard work.

This is the time of year I actually get to do some reading. Not because November, the crossover season between D3football.com and D3hoops.com, is some wonderful bastion of free time, but because every once in a while I have to get on an airplane to get to a playoff game.

There have been just a handful of books in the past decade that really speak to the Division III football experience. One of them came out in the past 12 months, however, and that’s Frank Agin’s Out of the Comfort Zone.

Former Principia and Capital wide receiver Lewis Howes has had some D-III football experiences himself, and he reviews the book for us.

Lewis Howes’ review of Out of the Comfort Zone (by Frank Agin)

If you have ever played, been a fan of or watched D-III football, you should read Frank Agin’s Out of the Comfort Zone – it is an exciting and enjoyable story.

Frank knows D-III football first hand, having played four years at Beloit College (Beloit, Wis.) during the early 1980s. In Out of the Comfort Zone, he crafts his experiences into one inspiring and yet very entertaining season of D-III football. Frank has a vivid writing style – he actually makes you feel the hits, sense the emotion and smell the game.

What I really enjoyed about Frank’s novel, however, is that while it centers on small college football players, Frank devotes a surprisingly little portion of the book to the game of football itself. Out of the Comfort Zone touches on the players’ camaraderie off the field, their romantic interests as well as the relationships they share with coaches. The story explores the rigors of being a true student-athlete in a demanding academic environment. And, the novel reminds us that no matter what we try to achieve, that there will be hard work, challenges and setbacks.

If you played (or play) D-III, Out of the Comfort Zone will bring back a rush of memories. If you haven’t, this novel with give you a first hand view of life as a small college football player. In Out of the Comfort Zone, Frank Agin will make you laugh … he will bring a tear to your eye … and, he will make you long for a chance at one more big time play – the kind that lives in your mind forever.

- Lewis Howes
D3 All-American, NCAA All-Division Record Holder

If you think this bracket is good … and I do, at least a little … you should’ve seen the first version that went out. It had one extra flight in it, and that made a world of difference.

Instead, we have business as usual. And I mean business.

I’m in between show No. 3 and No. 4. I’ll be on North Central’s radio station later, where I’ll probably get asked most of the same questions, which is fine, because it’s a different audience. But there are a lot of things on people’s minds.

We took a ton of questions on our post-selection analysis show. If you missed it, it’s below, and it will end up in your feed if you’re a podcast subscriber.

We also talked with Wheaton coach Mike Swider, Willamette coach Mark Speckman, Mount Union quarterback Greg Micheli and Washington and Jefferson coach Mike Sirianni. Plus, you’ll get an interesting insight into the bracket that did not make ESPNews.

Thanks to the more than a thousand people who listened to the show live, and to the 75 percent of our audience that stuck with us even as we went 45 minutes longer than we planned. But we got to everyone’s questions.

 

 ATN's Selection Sunday Analysis [100:36m]: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

Well, what an end to an odd day and an odd season.

With that, we have no choice but to unveil an odd bracket. A bracket with 11, yes 11, South teams. Though just six East teams, so it almost balances.

We’ll all find out during the selection show just after 3 p.m. ET what the NCAA thinks. But a process that was fairly easy last week had some new wrinkles added — losses. And more losses.

As a reminder, 32 teams form four eight-team brackets. And we know the champions of 23 conferences and the automatic bids. Three bids (Pool B) are set aside for independents or members of non-automatic bid conferences. The remaining six bids go to what’s called Pool C, which is everyone left over.

Our bracketology team debated the at-large teams, the seedings and the pairings. Here’s our result.

East bracket
1. Mount Union
2. Ithaca
3. Cortland State
4. Hobart
5. Wesley (B)
6. Plymouth State
7. Montclair State (C)
8. Lycoming
The East has had seasons before without an unbeaten team. But none of them came a year after Mount Union got moved out to the East as the top seed. And it’s time to do it again. First-round pairings here fall right according to the seedings: Lycoming at Mount Union, Montclair State at Ithaca, Plymouth State at Cortland State and Wesley at Hobart.

North Region
1. North Central
2. Trine
3. Case Western Reserve (B)
4. Otterbein (C)
5. Wabash
6. Franklin
7. Aurora
8. Thomas More
Another bracket where pairings go according to seed. Thomas More ducks the trip to Mount Union, thanks to Ithaca. Wabash cost itself a No. 2 or 3 seed with the loss.

South bracket
1. Millsaps
2. Mary Hardin-Baylor
3. Hardin-Simmons (C)
4. Muhlenberg
5. Washington and Jefferson (C)
6. Christopher Newport
7. LaGrange (B)
8. Randolph-Macon
Because of the money requirement of the NCAA, the pairings won’t go according to seed here. LaGrange is at Millsaps, Hardin-Simmons at Mary Hardin-Baylor, Randolph-Macon at Muhlenberg and Christopher Newport at Washington and Jefferson. We could only hope for an extra flight here, but it would really take three to make this bracket work right, and that isn’t happening. Muhlenberg’s loss makes it unreasonable.

West bracket
1. Willamette
2. Occidental
3. Monmouth
4. Stevens Point
5. Whitewater (C)
6. St. John’s
7. DePauw (C)
8. Wartburg
Yes, DePauw. And of course, the NCAA will pit the top two seeds in this bracket against each other. It’s their way. Wartburg at UW-Stevens Point, DePauw at Monmouth and St. John’s at Whitewater to finish out the pairings.

When DePauw was selected, Rowan, Wooster and Cal Lutheran were left on the board. All with two losses. All with opponents’ winning percentages over .530. DePauw with the best opponents’ opponents winning percentage. And DePauw with a win against a regionally ranked team, in Wabash, on the road at that. None of the others have that.

I have a stock response for fans complaining about the Top 25 poll: It’s not who you lost to, it’s who you beat.

For DePauw, it’s who they beat.

We are aware that Trinity has a similar record and a head-to-head win against DePauw and could also merit selection in this spot. But Trinity’s .448 OWP left them further down our list. Hampden-Sydney (.602 OWP) and Salisbury (.588) were significantly higher.

And DePauw has done something lately.

All 23 automatic bids have been decided. Be sure to check back later for our projections of who will come away with the at-large bids.

Bids clinched
Aurora (NATHC)
Cortland State (NJAC)
Christopher Newport (USAC)
Franklin (HCAC)
Hobart (Liberty League)
Ithaca (Empire 8 )
Lycoming (MAC)
Mary Hardin-Baylor (ASC)
Millsaps (SCAC)
Monmouth (MWC)
Mount Union (OAC)
Muhlenberg (CC)
North Central (Ill.) (CCIW)
Occidental (SCIAC)
Plymouth State (NEFC)
Randolph-Macon (ODAC)
St. John (MIAC)
Thomas More (PAC)
Trine (MIAA)
UW-Stevens Point (WIAC)
Wabash (NCAC)
Wartburg (IIAC)
Willamette (NWC)