D3football Daily Dose

ATN podcast: All playoff scenarios

Posted by Pat Coleman, Permanent link

10
Nov
2008

We are down to our last “next week” for the 2008 season, with nine automatic bids yet to be handed out and, of course, all the at-larges.

In our weekly podcast, Keith McMillan and I run down the various scenarios in each AQ conference, plus look at the slightly muddier Pool B and Pool C pictures for at-large bids.

The playoffs are coming. D3football.com will take you there.

You can load the podcast page in iTunes or can also get this and any of our future Around the Nation podcasts automatically by subscribing to this RSS feed: http://www.d3football.com/dailydose/?feed=podcast

Or you can click the play button below to listen.

 

 Around the Nation Podcast [26:52m]: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

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7 Responses to “ATN podcast: All playoff scenarios”

1. labart96 Says:
   November 10th, 2008 at 2:41 pm

   dizzy-ing (is that a word? if not, oh well) perspective when you look outside your own region (in my case, the east). how you guys track all this stuff and still hold down your day jobs is pretty impressive.

   although the national champion is usually a foregone conclusion in d3 (at least in the last 10 seasons) this process sure makes it a lot more interesting than the bcs.

2. Augie Grad Says:
   November 10th, 2008 at 9:01 pm

   Big CCIW fan. In the criteria section for making the playoffs—-it doesn’t state that winning % is the number one prioroty to get you in. Why can’t an 8-2 team get in if they have a far better OPPW% and OOPPW% and have beaten 2 regionally ranked teams versus a 9-1 that doesn’t even come close?? I am inexperienced in all this playoff stuff so show some grace here Keith. It clearly states there is no priority given—so the average Joe like myself needs some explanation. If Elmhurst beats North Central, they could be that team. I’m assuming that Wheaton and North Central would be ranked because there is nobody else left in the North. Elmhurst’s OPPW% would be close to .553. after NC game.

3. Gordon Says:
   November 10th, 2008 at 9:34 pm

   Augie Grad:

   Nothing wrong with that. It’s a good question.

   Keep in mind that the victories against regionally ranked teams means victories against teams that are regionally ranked at the time of playoff selection. The committee puts together one last regional rankings this weekend before making the selections. Those last rankings are not published.

   If Elmhurst beats North Central and gets ranked, they could knock Wheaton (Ill) out of the rankings. That would leave the Blue Jays with one win against regionally ranked opponents.

   But the best indicator that Elmhurst is a long shot is the rankings themselves. They give you a good sense who the Committee would take if the selections were done today. If you haven’t been in the regional rankings yet at this point in the season, that’s a bad sign.

4. Augie Grad Says:
   November 11th, 2008 at 10:56 pm

   Gordon:
   I really appreciate the reply. So does the committee follow the criteria listed or not? If they follow winning percentage first and foremost as ATN has stated–for playoff consideration and even to do regional rankings, why would Wooster be ranked regionally above Wheaton & Elmhurst in regional rankings #2? If I am not mistaken, Wooster is listed as 4-2 or should be 5-2 regionally and Wheaton and Elmhurst are 6-2 regionally. Just trying to figure this whole thing out.

5. D3Keith Says:
   November 12th, 2008 at 3:20 am

   I think it’s a great question.

   Yes, a two-loss team with a much more impressive resume can get in over a one-loss team.

   It is likely? No.

   Gordon’s response was a good one. I’ll add that with the pool of one-loss teams in the twenties and high teens the past few weeks, I’ve assumed that no two-loss team will grade out well enough in the criteria to leapfrog a one-loss team, but I haven’t examined all of the possibilities.

   The ones I’ve seen require a lot of things happening, which isn’t impossible, just not prudent for me to go examining it with my limited time if it’s not likely to occur.

   In Elmhurst’s case, first they have to beat North Central. Then you’d have to see teams in the strong group of one-loss teams lose.

   Historically when the Pool C pool is strong, we have not seen it happen much; in other words, for layman’s purposes, wins still “seem” to carry the most weight.

   Even with the other criteria weighed equally, the teams with more wins have tended to grade out better. I bet if I looked I could find a scenario where what you propose came close to happening or did happen. 9-1s have missed the postseason before.

   The scenario you propose is possible though, no doubt. Sharp eye. And +1 for reading the criteria!

6. muc01nashvegas Says:
   November 12th, 2008 at 2:04 pm

   Great breakdown guys – I’m looking forward to watching another championship decided ON THE FIELD once the brackets are complete….I want to say congrats on a great season to the Otterbein Cardinals….They do need to take care of business against John Carroll, which isn’t likely to just lay down this weekend..but if they get in, I have to think that they make a fairly deep run…the rankings as always will come into play to affect the Cardinal’s draw, but that’s my take…

7. BellTower Says:
   November 16th, 2008 at 10:09 am

   My heart is still thumping after a ridiculous SJU win at Carleton this afternoon. The Johnnies went 70 yards in 5 plays (and 38 seconds), scoring with 18 seconds on the clock to produce a 14-10 win over the Knigths, SJU’s 26th consectuve win over Carleton. Another bit of Monastic Magic working on behalf of the Johnnies…

   Not sure what next week will bring, of SJU’s defense brings its “A” game,

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