Final playoff projection
Nov
2008
Well, what an end to an odd day and an odd season.
With that, we have no choice but to unveil an odd bracket. A bracket with 11, yes 11, South teams. Though just six East teams, so it almost balances.
We’ll all find out during the selection show just after 3 p.m. ET what the NCAA thinks. But a process that was fairly easy last week had some new wrinkles added — losses. And more losses.
As a reminder, 32 teams form four eight-team brackets. And we know the champions of 23 conferences and the automatic bids. Three bids (Pool B) are set aside for independents or members of non-automatic bid conferences. The remaining six bids go to what’s called Pool C, which is everyone left over.
Our bracketology team debated the at-large teams, the seedings and the pairings. Here’s our result.
East bracket
1. Mount Union
2. Ithaca
3. Cortland State
4. Hobart
5. Wesley (B)
6. Plymouth State
7. Montclair State (C)
8. Lycoming
The East has had seasons before without an unbeaten team. But none of them came a year after Mount Union got moved out to the East as the top seed. And it’s time to do it again. First-round pairings here fall right according to the seedings: Lycoming at Mount Union, Montclair State at Ithaca, Plymouth State at Cortland State and Wesley at Hobart.
North Region
1. North Central
2. Trine
3. Case Western Reserve (B)
4. Otterbein (C)
5. Wabash
6. Franklin
7. Aurora
8. Thomas More
Another bracket where pairings go according to seed. Thomas More ducks the trip to Mount Union, thanks to Ithaca. Wabash cost itself a No. 2 or 3 seed with the loss.
South bracket
1. Millsaps
2. Mary Hardin-Baylor
3. Hardin-Simmons (C)
4. Muhlenberg
5. Washington and Jefferson (C)
6. Christopher Newport
7. LaGrange (B)
8. Randolph-Macon
Because of the money requirement of the NCAA, the pairings won’t go according to seed here. LaGrange is at Millsaps, Hardin-Simmons at Mary Hardin-Baylor, Randolph-Macon at Muhlenberg and Christopher Newport at Washington and Jefferson. We could only hope for an extra flight here, but it would really take three to make this bracket work right, and that isn’t happening. Muhlenberg’s loss makes it unreasonable.
West bracket
1. Willamette
2. Occidental
3. Monmouth
4. Stevens Point
5. Whitewater (C)
6. St. John’s
7. DePauw (C)
8. Wartburg
Yes, DePauw. And of course, the NCAA will pit the top two seeds in this bracket against each other. It’s their way. Wartburg at UW-Stevens Point, DePauw at Monmouth and St. John’s at Whitewater to finish out the pairings.
When DePauw was selected, Rowan, Wooster and Cal Lutheran were left on the board. All with two losses. All with opponents’ winning percentages over .530. DePauw with the best opponents’ opponents winning percentage. And DePauw with a win against a regionally ranked team, in Wabash, on the road at that. None of the others have that.
I have a stock response for fans complaining about the Top 25 poll: It’s not who you lost to, it’s who you beat.
For DePauw, it’s who they beat.
We are aware that Trinity has a similar record and a head-to-head win against DePauw and could also merit selection in this spot. But Trinity’s .448 OWP left them further down our list. Hampden-Sydney (.602 OWP) and Salisbury (.588) were significantly higher.
And DePauw has done something lately.
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November 16th, 2008 at 7:41 am
Depauw? Barely beat winless Colorado College in OT. Blown out by Trinity & Millsaps. I think the win is more of an indictment of an over-rated Wabash.
I think moving Muhlenberg East makes more sense than moving Wesley. Muhlenberg deserves a home game and after losing yesterday? Wesley has won eight straight, its only loss on the final play of the game to the MAC co-champ Del Val on opening day.
November 16th, 2008 at 7:49 am
otter to play wabash in opening round if you are right what a pre game that would be!
November 16th, 2008 at 8:12 am
What was a perfect bracket 24 hours ago is a complete mess now. I figured someone (or two) would lose yesterday to add some spice to the brackets, but yesterday’s carnage was completely unexpected.
At least the four #1’s make sense.
November 16th, 2008 at 8:13 am
Those are still W’s though, Conrad.
When looking at OWP for Muhlenberg and Wesley, Wesley didn’t fare very well. (Posting from my phone at the airport so this is working from memory.) Both lost to similar teams.
November 16th, 2008 at 8:18 am
I think that both Depauw and Montclair St are debateable for Pool C. I think Salisbury and HSC merits a bid due to who they beat over those two schools. It wouldn’t be hard to replace either of those schools especially Montclair St.
I am not sure if this has any bearing in D3 but losing late in the season especially the last week of the season is usually not a reason to be rewarded with a playoff spot.
Does anyone agree?
November 16th, 2008 at 8:31 am
I agree. I think Montclair fits with all the criteria and has a win against a RRO. Losing in the last week of the season shouldn’t be rewarded but its not in the criteria anywhere. It also has a precedent if you look at all the Pool A teams that have been knocked into Pool C in week 12
November 16th, 2008 at 8:32 am
why montclair state instead of curry…..i agree with your case for depauw..however i dont understand montclair…..i think that curry, rowan, hartwick, cal lutheran, or moravian would be a better selection. How did you come up with montclair?
November 16th, 2008 at 8:39 am
Ron Boerger, who was South Region reporter for several years, first mentioned DePauw on the Message Boards to me. So, the thought is not unique here. The timing of the DPU win is not in the criteria, but two “results versus regionally ranked opponents” is. The SCAC finally has earned a Pool C bid.
Margin of Victory (MOV) is not a criterion. A win is a win, and so we don’t have any of that BCS bull-stuff blow-outs to impress the voters. As a coach, when you are comfortably ahead, or you want to play plenty of players, then you don’t have to worry about MOV.
The West Coast Sub-Bracket and the Texas Sub-Bracket make for some great first round games.
November 16th, 2008 at 8:48 am
Montclair was ahead of Curry in the regional rankings last week. So was Rowan. Montclair and Rowan now have similar records. No reason Curry would pass Rowan when they didn’t play this week. Montclair beat Rowan head to head, so Montclair would still be ahead of Rowan and therefore ahead of Curry.
November 16th, 2008 at 8:50 am
Ralph — as Pool C was falling down around us yesterday I told the DePauw people that they would want to pay attention to the selection show. It’s very possible.
November 16th, 2008 at 9:02 am
Pat,
This will be a tough selection show and many teams will have a beef. Playing devil’s advocate I would have to ask you again about montclair. Using your criteria of regional rankings it would appear that Hartwick would be ranked higher than Rowan, Montclair, and Curry. Why not Hartwick using your logic for selections. Geographically they would also fit into the East Bracket.
I also think that Cal Lutheran has a strong case. They have a good strength of schedule, they beat a ranked team in the last week, and their only losses are to two undefeated teams by 3 and 14 respectively.
It will be a tough selection show.
November 16th, 2008 at 9:06 am
Thanks Pat, DePauw to Monmouth is 764 miles. Another plane flight!
Thanks for all that you do! This year’s selection has been fun to consider.
My sympathy West Bracket had #8 Wartburg to #1Willamette and #7 Cal Lutheran (with losses to Willamette and Oxy) back to #2 Oxy.
The likely West Coast winner could host the West Regional Finals.
November 16th, 2008 at 9:15 am
I’m curious why Wheaton hasn’t been mentioned as a c pool option. They had the highest ranking (#4) of any of the discussed teams. Their combined Opponents win % and opponents opponents win % are higher. Wheaton at 8-2 with a owp of .565 and oowp of .559 outpaces Depaw and Montclair. No question Wheaton should be in the mix.
November 16th, 2008 at 9:23 am
Greencastle IN to Monmouth IL is 264 miles.
November 16th, 2008 at 9:35 am
Wrong Monmouth, Ralph.
November 16th, 2008 at 10:05 am
DePauw’s OWP is .579 (20th, which ‘outpaces’ Wheaton’s) and they destroyed a (formerly) undefeated RRO yesterday. I don’t believe Wheaton defeated any RRO. That should be enough to make the difference if Wheaton and DePauw are on the board when the last spot is up for discussion. Yes, Wheaton’s OOWP is better, but OOWP is more of a tiebreaker and I don’t see it outweighing the other two, more primarily, criteria.
That said [ and even though I *do* believe I was the first person to push the idea of DPU yesterday
] it will still be a surprise if the committee selects the young men from Greencastle. It’s not exactly a school that’s been on anyone’s radar before yesterday, this year or any other.
November 16th, 2008 at 10:06 am
sb “more primary,” not “more primarily,” sorry.
November 16th, 2008 at 10:15 am
I was going to say the same thing to Ralph. Not a long trip at all. Will be eagerly awaiting the brackets to see who my Scots get to play. It’s definitely going to be interesting after yesterdays games, someone really good will be left out.
November 16th, 2008 at 10:19 am
Pat:
Although I agree Wabash deserve to fall ~ and fall “hard” ~ after their poor performance yesterday, why put them below Otterbein? Wabash were conference champions, whereas Otterbein were runners-up; Wabash’s OPW and strength of schedule is higher than Otterbein’s… Wabash had a quality win against a Wooster side that until yesterday’s results you yourself were bandying about as a potential Pool C team (if I remember your blog from last weekend correctly)…
And ~ as much as it pains me to say this ~ I agree wholeheartedly with DePauw’s inclusion in the field of 32. I was MOST impressed with their performance yesterday and believe them to be a very well-rounded, solid team that did NOT win on emotion alone…
Just don’t tell anyone in Crawfordsville I said so! I DO have to show my face in public!
November 16th, 2008 at 10:27 am
formerScot4,
“Someone really good will be left out”. Of that, there is little doubt.
But if that someone left doubts themselves with yesterday’s monumental collapse of Pool C, there is nowhere they should look to lay the blame beside the mirror.
Everybody knew yesterday what they had to do. Some did it. Some didn’t. The latter greatly helps the former.
November 16th, 2008 at 10:48 am
If anybody deserves a home game and isn’t going to get it, Conrad, it’s Hardin-Simmons. Their only blemish is a two point loss to a RRO on the road.
But, alas, I realize that the fair comes but once a year. I’m just happy my guys are back playing at the level the should play at.
If the AA is going to put the two ASC teams together, they should re-pair all the Pool C runner’s up in the first round. THAT would be fair.
November 16th, 2008 at 10:51 am
Gopokes,
You are right and Wheaton is in the discussion. The last two pool c spots will likely come down to Hartwick, Rowan, Wheaton, Curry, Montclair, Cal Lutheran, Wooster, Depauw and Moravian. It is just a question of what the committee finds to be important. Personally, I would choose Hartwick and Cal Lutheran for the reasons that I stated above. However, all nine of these teams have a good argument. It will be interesting to see what happens.
November 16th, 2008 at 11:13 am
Wow! I now have a headache trying to figure all this out. The good news is that in about 4 hours, we will all know for sure and the speculation will be over. Good Luck to the fans of the Pool C teams. There are so many deserving teams but only 6 slots. No matter what happens, it will not be “fair” to a few teams.
November 16th, 2008 at 12:01 pm
‘85,
as several have said already, with “W”’s yesterday (or earlier in the season) many of the teams left out today could have assured themselves playoff spots. When you’re down to looking at a two-loss team for the last spot, you have to think that the most deserving teams already got in.
November 16th, 2008 at 12:44 pm
Ron,
In regards to Wheaton, the OOWP is just as primary as the OWP. they are not prioritized and wheaton’s is better than Depauws by a large margin. the OWP’s for wheaton and Depauw are .565 and .579 respectively and the OOWP’s are .559 and .510 respectively. That said, the win against a RRO is a trumping card so I agree with you. Montclair is the same analysis with .503 and .518 and a win over a RRO, although its less clear to me because they lost their last game.
November 16th, 2008 at 12:46 pm
Agreed with the Wheaton discussion. I think the question is whether Wheaton passed Wooster in the North — if Wheaton got on the table, I can see them getting a bid the same way UW-Eau Claire did last year. But not sure if what happened on Saturday was enough for that jump to happen.
November 16th, 2008 at 12:54 pm
Pat,
seems to me a lot is riding on the role of the regional advisory committees that recommend the pool C teams. Remember that is a different committee than the national committee that votes on the 32 teams (although the national committee is made up of reps from the regional committee). The regional rankings are critical for wheaton in the north as well as the logjam in the east. What do we know about the groundrules they operate with?
November 16th, 2008 at 1:39 pm
Committee members have said they recuse themselves when discussing games that affect their school, but I guess at some level they all affect each school.
Lot of good points made here.
I’m sure there are going to be some surprises. I would tune in at 3:30, and I’m not just saying it to be a self-promoter. LOTS to learn about how we arrived at what we’ll eventually have.
I strongly disagree with the notion that some team will “unfairly” be left out. Everyone knew what they had to do, and when we start talking about two-loss Pool C teams, they are teams that had no business being in the discussion without the number of upsets yesterday, so they should be (and probably are) thanking their lucky stars for even having a chance, not complaining about being “unfairly” left out.
What’s unfair is that two West Coast teams will likely play each other as usual, and two Texas teams will. No matter how good the SCIAC team is and the ASC runner-up is, they almost never play a home game. Or they don’t have any control over whether or not they do.
November 17th, 2008 at 8:29 am
I have no argument for Mount Union to be an East Region team, hey give it up for them.My question is was there any team other than Mount Union that could have been moved and put in the East Region as to me it’s a harsh sentence for the East Regional teams and an easy bracket for Mt. Union to take control of? I am sure they are thrilled to be playing in the East region and at least a national semi-final appearance for them. You blame Ithaca for Mount Union to go to the East in a way, just think about it. Now for the remaining East Region teams to get to the final quarterfinals against Union is the goal and one heck of a season. Can a team in this East Region knock off Mount UNion?
November 17th, 2008 at 10:15 am
“You blame Ithaca for Mount Union to go to the East in a way, just think about it.”
That’s one of the most ridiculous things I’ve ever read at d3football.com.
Ithaca did what they had to do on Saturday. They won the game that was in front of them. Had they lost (allowing SUNY-Cortland to go 10-0), the Bombers would likely have been out.
You can blame alot of teams for Mount ending up in the East. Ithaca isn’t one of them.
November 17th, 2008 at 8:35 pm
I think any of the East teams could beat Mt Union at any point in these playoffs…whether they will or not is another question….if it were my team, i would say our D would have to have best day of it’s life…in order to shut down all the MUC offensive weapons….you cant try and win a shoot out with this year’s team…the name of the game is to slow down the pace, control the ball…bend don’t break on D…and you MUST start well…no room to stumble out of the gates…if you get down early you’ve forced yourself into playing a type of game you most likely won’t win…
all that said though…then you’ve gotta try and put points on the board yourselves…and that aint easy either…..but i do believe a really hungry team can beat MUC….UWW was outright hungry in that stagg last year…when the Raiders smacked them around, UWW smacked them right in the mouth…they were a force to be reckoned with…that along with their playoff experience was enough for them to win…and the UWW coaching staff really brought their A game as well and matched wits with Larry Kehres…
i never count any team completely out….
These teams need to ask themselves how bad they want it…and then it comes down to can they execute enough to reach their goal…
November 18th, 2008 at 10:26 am
YEP