Triple Take: Third-round predictions
Dec
2008
Welcome to the Round of Eight. The initial 32-team field has been quartered, and it’s Friday — tomorrow we watch as it’s cut in half again.
Reading some of the comments recently, I almost thought ‘why bother with a fancy intro this week?’ But the discerning among you read closely, and that we appreciate, as well as your feedback. So let me jog your minds before we get to the actual picks.
I might not be able to keep pace with Ryan Tipps, but here’s one prediction I’ll nail this week: The three of us (and remember, we take a stab at scores without talking to each other) will be unanimous on three games, and split on one.
There’s no reason to take offense. Three of the dominant programs of the last half-decade are at home tomorrow. Mount Union, UW-Whitewater and Mary Hardin-Baylor have accounted for seven of the past eight Stagg Bowl appearances. And although the Cru, whose 2007 group was one of the best non-Stagg teams of the automatic bid era, lacks the jewelry the other two can show off, they have something no one I can think of does: A winning record (1-0) in Alliance.
So fans of Cortland State, Wartburg and Washington & Jefferson, don’t take it as a sign of disrespect. It’s more like a sign that respect is earned, not given. For certain, this is 2008 were talking about, and history doesn’t strap up on Saturday. All eight teams still standing have earned respect, and they honestly all have a chance to win.
What W&J did defensively and in the running game against Millsaps was tremendous, proving the team was more than just The Bobby Swallow Show. Wheaton and Wartburg, both with two losses, have been playing with their backs against the wall for weeks, and responding again and again. Cortland State and Wheaton played two of the more grueling schedules you’ll find, and Franklin … when that offense gets humming, it’s some see-it-to-believe-it type stuff.
Step back a second and remember that there are 231 Division III football programs who could not be with us this wekend, and the vast majority of them would love to have one more Saturday of football. Enjoy it. Represent college football in its purest form by playing and rooting hard, but being good to each other as well.
What’s been accomplished so far by these elite eight is really special. Four of these teams will end their seasons with a loss Saturday. It’s our job to set the expectation on which ones it will be, but even an “expert” isn’t always 100% sure. There’s reason to believe in every team left.
As always, feel free to tally the composite prediction. And please share your picks below.
MOUNT UNION (East) BRACKET FINAL
No. 3 seed Cortland State at No. 1 Mount Union
Ryan: Mount Union, 45-20
Keith: Mount Union, 38-21
Pat: Mount Union, 52-17
MILLSAPS (South) BRACKET FINAL
No. 5 Washington & Jefferson at No. 2 Mary Hardin-Baylor
Ryan: UMHB, 38-28
Keith: UMHB, 35-28
Pat: UMHB, 34-24
NORTH CENTRAL (North) BRACKET FINAL
No. 7 Wheaton at No. 5 Franklin
Ryan: Franklin, 42-34
Keith: Franklin, 37-31
Pat: Wheaton, 45-42
WILLAMETTE (West) BRACKET FINAL
No. 7 Wartburg at No. 5 UW-Whitewater
Ryan: UW-Whitewater, 31-21
Keith: UW-Whitewater, 24-7
Pat: UW-Whitewater, 34-13
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December 5th, 2008 at 6:17 am
Pat….OUCH 52–17 that hurts an the game hasn’t started yet..show some love
December 5th, 2008 at 7:00 am
I’ll be more than shocked if Wartburg is within 30 points of Whitewater. The other scores look about right.
December 5th, 2008 at 7:49 am
Hey Neil:
And that will probably be the score after Larry Kerhes calls off the dogs in the begining to mid-fourth quarter. Get used to it…..you’re going up against “The Machine” and when you do that, normally the ending is not pretty. Good Luck !!
December 5th, 2008 at 7:59 am
Thanks once again to the experts for taking the time to contemplate the games and give us your predictions. All you do at d3football.com helps make the football season all the more enjoyable for us. We all appreciate it guys!
Neil,
I think Pat IS showing Cortand State love. How many times has anyone scored 17 on Mount this year?
Mount 52
CSU 7
UMBH is at home and playing their best football. Their best is better than the most schools in the country best:
UMHB 34
W&J 20
Is this track or football??
Franklin 52
Wheaton 45
UWW seems to be peaking at the right time….Again.
UWW 45
Wartburg 10
December 5th, 2008 at 8:31 am
bleedpurple:
I think that all of your predictions are right on !!
December 5th, 2008 at 9:37 am
bunch of meanies..I C got some points last year….by the way ..still have that I C Bombers tear soaked cap if anybody wants it
December 5th, 2008 at 9:55 am
Wow…..I’m shocked….I agree with almost all your picks…I say ALMOST because I’m with Pat on the Wheaton/Franklin matchup. Its great to see you giving UMHB more love…….Go Cru!!!
December 5th, 2008 at 10:48 am
Can someone explain to my boss why I haven’t gotten any work done this week — or last week — or the week before ??
December 5th, 2008 at 11:09 am
D3Keith!! Thank you for almost giving me props, i do know that ya’ll have done some on UMHB over the years and i Thank you for that, i am a long time fan of this site, i think that ya’ll do give some PROP’S to the our conference we have some great teams down here in Texas. For my predictions for the final *8* are as follows:
MHB 46
W&J 21
Wartburg 32 AND YES FANS UWW BOWS!!!OUT!!! This Round
UWW 24
Wheaton 32
Franklin 21
Mt Union 36
Cortland State 21
CONGRATS!!! To All The Teams That Have Made IT This Far!!!
December 5th, 2008 at 11:43 am
UMHBFAN,
VERY WISHFUL THINKING! UWW WILL BEAT WARTBURG, AND YES UMHB’S SEASON WILL END NEXT WEEK AGAINST THE WARHAWKS.
MOUNT WILL NOT GIVE UP 21. PAT LOOKS TO BE RIGHT ON, GO RAIDERS.
I HOPE THEY WEAR PURPLE ON PURPLE, I DIDN’T LIKE THAT BLACK ON WHITE AGAINST R-MC.
December 5th, 2008 at 2:11 pm
Just a reminder, Franklin College is not playing at “Faught Stadium” this weekend. The game has been moved to Franklin Community High School near campus due to field conditions. The field was torn up after the Franklin College vs. Hanover College Bell Game.
Hope to see you all there. Radio broadcasts with Adam Kloss and Matt Mckean will be available on 89.5 WFCI in the Franklin area. Also available on webstream at franklincollege.edu/athletics.
GO GRIZ!
December 5th, 2008 at 2:19 pm
42-10 mount…final answer.
December 5th, 2008 at 2:20 pm
Is there live video of any games this week? Just wondered – if not, I’ll be listening online.
MUC, UWW, UMHB all advance….I have to say, at mid-season, I’m not sure I would have guessed that all three of these teams would be returning to the final 8 mix…if one of them should go down this week though, it would really be an achievement for their opponent….I feel like MUC will really bring the heat early against Cortland after a slow start vs Hobart….if Cortland wants to stay in it, just like we’ve said for just about every MUC opponent this year, the first 5 to 10 minutes of the 1st QTR is key…
I really think the Franklin/Wheaton game is a toss up…but I’ll go with my gut…
Rupp gets Franklin to Alliance in a shoot out…42-38.
December 5th, 2008 at 2:36 pm
It’s a pretty good feeling when i realize that tomorrow my Cortland State Red Dragons will be playing in Alliance ….i just have a very weird feeling about this game tomorrow…i can’t help to think that of course the mount union fans and maybe players are looking past tomorrow, and yes I’m picking this game from my heart considering i have a relative on the team but I’m going with it.
If Kmic wants 8,000 he better rush for 600 tomorrow
Cortland State 38
Mount Union 35
GO DRAGONS!!!!!
Neil I know you will appreciate this
December 5th, 2008 at 3:00 pm
cortlandstate,
Bad omen, I told this story two weeks ago, two parents from R-MC talking and one said to the other ” hey, maybe if we’re lucky they’ll (muc) look past us.” Final Mt 56-0. This is why it’s fun for us Mount fans to see new teams that have never played THE MACHINE . I am really not trying to burst your bubble but here goes, MOUNT DOES NOT LOOK PASSED THEIR OPPONENTS…..PERIOD. I am sure your coach is making that clear to the Red Dragons. If, Cortland wins, it will be because they were the better team tomorrow, not becaus Mt looked passed them, not because Corland St. was lucky, just they were better that day.
Cortland St. will have to play perfect, I mean perfect. Then hope they catch Mount on a fluke “off day”. I wish you and your relative good luck and if you come to the game enjoy yourself. It will be a great atmosphere and just think both teams are only two games away from the BIG DANCE.
December 5th, 2008 at 3:19 pm
does it seem like all the sucessful teams in d3 have purple uniforms,
December 5th, 2008 at 6:23 pm
muc01nashvegas
The UWW-Wartburg game will be streamed live online by PennAtlantic for free. It’s actually a pretty decent broadcast, even if it’s very easy to tell that the commentators are UWW students.
http://www.pennatlantic.com/main.php?tableName=event&fileName=results&recordId=&module=event-results&orderBy=&searchIt=yes&sport=0&month=0&day=01&year=2006&conferenceId=0&schoolId=76
If that link doesn’t work, go to http://www.uwwsports.com, click on the “Follow the Warhawks” banner on the right-hand side, then click on the PennAtlantic link. It requires a sign up, but sign up is free.
If you do watch the UWW game, keep your ears pealed for the UWW pep band. I’ll be there tootin’ my horn and cheering on the Warhawks. Good luck everyone and enjoy the games!
December 5th, 2008 at 8:02 pm
Hey Trombone, you pickin Wartburg! Sorry bro, but you know you have to take a little heat for last week!
December 5th, 2008 at 8:07 pm
THis was a post I made Monday….nothing’s changed.
My predictions this week (I know its 5 days early, but its not going to change):
UWW: 31
Wartburg: 14
UMHB: 45
W&J: 28
MU: 42
CSU: 14
Wheaton: 42
Franklin: 35
December 5th, 2008 at 8:29 pm
I think Cortland will be able to match up, but agree they’ll have to be close to flawless.
No way Franklin is held to 21.
Thanks for remembering the hyphen in R-MC.
My picks are the scores I would be least surprised to see, but there are others that wouldn’t come as total shocks.
December 5th, 2008 at 9:50 pm
I agree with Keith…no way FC only scores 21.
my prediction
FC: 45
Wheaton: 31
Chad Rupp and the GRIZ offense cannot be denied this week.
December 5th, 2008 at 11:09 pm
When it is all said and done and the scores are posted the final 4 will be Cortland, UMHB, Wheaton, Wartburg.
Cortland 45 Mount Union 37
UMHB, 42 W&J 27
Wheaton, 45 Franklin 35
Wartburg, 35 UWW 27
December 6th, 2008 at 1:42 am
R24aider,
I don’t see UWW beating the Cru in TX. In fact, MUC would not win here. Remember who beat you in Alliance in 2004. We will see how it plays out. It would be nice for MUC-UMHB to play a regular season game.
December 6th, 2008 at 2:04 am
Cortland state will be able to slow Kmic on defense and will be able to move the ball with their own top Rb and a solid Ray Miles at QB…
Upset City:
Cortland State Red Dragons 31, Mount Union Football Factory: 28
You heard it here.
Maybe one of these days we will make Pat Coleman a believer.
December 6th, 2008 at 9:38 am
dont sleep on W&J….a lesser W&J team only loss to 3 to a better UMHB team two years ago…this one will be decided by less than 7 and possibly less than 3
December 6th, 2008 at 9:52 am
mille125,
Remember W&J scored with 5 sec left in the game against reserves. UMHB totally dominated the game. W&J had one first down the first half.
December 6th, 2008 at 10:06 am
this is hilarious to see fans picking a team to score 30 points + against a team that has only given up 60 points TOTAL in 12 GAMES. Cortland St needs to get off to a great start… an early turnover will open this game up (see Otterbein) and play flawless (like Keith said). It can be done..
Instead of ripping on Pat for “not believing in Cortland St”, you guys should be thanking him for creating a site where you can make any wild prediction you want…
cru crushed,
You’re going to be surprised at this W&J team. I’m not saying they are going to win… but its going to be a close game as the experts are saying. If the MHB team is relaxing because of past results against the Presidents, this will be another win for W&J.
Fgrizc,
I think the weather is going to play a huge factor in this game. Franklin is definitely the favorite, but the wind and precip is going to even things out. Wheaton has an advantage because of that and playoff experience. Remember, they haven’t lost in the playoffs this decade to a team not named Mount Union.
December 6th, 2008 at 10:23 am
I too have a feeling, albeit most likely a hopeful feeling regarding Cortland State. Also, in reference to the statement made about “no disrespect meant here” on the predictions. All of these teams diserve the utmost respect for making it as far as they have, win or lose, blowout or barn burner. These teams are the cream of the D-III crop and congratulations to all!!! That being said, GO RED DRAGONS!!!!
December 6th, 2008 at 10:52 am
cru crush…
they play two halves bud…with 13 min left the score was 27-20 UMHB, u can’t tell me that they had there reserves in up a TD. yes they did put together a solid drive and kick a field goal to put them up by 10, but W&J still had the ball with time to score twice.
it was a close game, dominated early by UMHB 27-7 at one point. what we seem to be missing here is both teams are completely different.
I dont know who wins today and beating a team on their home field is always tough. It is nice though for the presidents to have a QB that has played down their before and a defense that has been really good all year long.
as for UMHB, you guys are always good, we arent ever knocking that, your running game is unreal, and your defense is extremly fast.
I was at all the games played between these two teams and this year I would say W&J has the best team of the three.
Just looking at the game it will come down to can W&J keep bobby protected (sacked 5 times the last time these two played) and can the defense hold UMHB to under 250 yrds rushing and under 100 yards passing.
no prediction here, just wishing everyone left on a great season and good luck W&J
December 6th, 2008 at 11:47 am
cru crush……
Presidents actually gave a more accurate statement of their last meeting. All I am saying is that this W&J team is much better than the 2006 team and that this year’s UMHB team is not as good as their 2006 team. It will be very close and by far the most competitive of the four games.
December 6th, 2008 at 12:30 pm
I sure hope that Wartburg can come through and beat the UWW team today. It would be refreshing to see another team from the west region advance to the semifinals , for a change. Go Wartburg!
December 6th, 2008 at 5:59 pm
Well I went to the UMHB-W&J game and I can say it was over in the first 12 min of the game. Below are some people eating crow.
However, UWW will give the Cru all they can handle if not more.
mille125 Says:
December 6th, 2008 at 11:47 am
cru crush……
Presidents actually gave a more accurate statement of their last meeting. All I am saying is that this W&J team is much better than the 2006 team and that this year’s UMHB team is not as good as their 2006 team. It will be very close and by far the most competitive of the four games.
presidents Says:
December 6th, 2008 at 10:52 am
cru crush…
they play two halves bud…with 13 min left the score was 27-20 UMHB, u can’t tell me that they had there reserves in up a TD. yes they did put together a solid drive and kick a field goal to put them up by 10, but W&J still had the ball with time to score twice.
it was a close game, dominated early by UMHB 27-7 at one point. what we seem to be missing here is both teams are completely different.
I dont know who wins today and beating a team on their home field is always tough. It is nice though for the presidents to have a QB that has played down their before and a defense that has been really good all year long.
as for UMHB, you guys are always good, we arent ever knocking that, your running game is unreal, and your defense is extremly fast.
I was at all the games played between these two teams and this year I would say W&J has the best team of the three.
Just looking at the game it will come down to can W&J keep bobby protected (sacked 5 times the last time these two played) and can the defense hold UMHB to under 250 yrds rushing and under 100 yards passing.
no prediction here, just wishing everyone left on a great season and good luck W&J
SaintsFAN Says:
December 6th, 2008 at 10:06 am
cru crushed,
You’re going to be surprised at this W&J team. I’m not saying they are going to win… but its going to be a close game as the experts are saying. If the MHB team is relaxing because of past results against the Presidents, this will be another win for W&J
December 6th, 2008 at 6:03 pm
I sat on the W&J side and talked to some of the fans. I can say everyone was very nice and sportsman like. I did not see 46th president or I would have bought him a soda.
December 6th, 2008 at 10:58 pm
Not here to brag, not here to boast. I like hot butter on my breakfast toast.
My bad, flashback, y’all. This week’s final scores:
Wheaton (Ill.) 45, Franklin 28
Mount Union 41, Cortland State 14
Mary Hardin-Baylor 63, Washington and Jefferson 7
UW-Whitewater 34, Wartburg 17
Everybody wins by at least 17. This is a very solid final four, the three dominant programs of the past 4 years and a team from a power conference in the CCIW that has apparently never been beaten in the playoffs by anyone other than MUC.
You almost wish Wheaton could come off the other side of the bracket, but these matchups as they are are super-compelling.
I might have hit the 0-fer in my final four Kickoff picks … this year was not nearly as wide-open as I thought it would be. Or maybe it was and the same Big Three rose to the occasion. (no disrespect to Wesley, which would be the fourth in the mix I guess)
Pat 4-0, me and Tipps 3-1.
I’m definitely off the pace by about two games, but a playoffs I can’t pick easily is much more fun than one that I can.
December 7th, 2008 at 11:23 am
Newbie here.
I’m a big fan of the site. My parents are from Belton and I just moved here two years ago. I’ve always followed UMHB, but more-so over the last few years.
I have to say, if you asked me early in the year or even late this season, I would have told you this is one of UMHB’s weakest teams in the last 5 years. Especially when our star RB, Quincy Daniels went down on the first series of the first game. We’re inexperienced at most positions, smaller at a lot of positions than we’ve been…..and some of the teams we beat this year, quite frankly, should have beaten us with a couple changes in coahcing decisions.
Until two weeks ago. I know it was mostly out of necessity, but moving Bryson Tucker from linebacker to RB, makes this a different team. I still don’t think Saenz runs the option as well as QB’s of UMHB past….but I wouldn’t want to have to tackle him. He’s playing with the confidence of someone who could win it all by himself.
Our defensive line has come out of nowhere the last two weeks. What I saw yesterday was a different team. Our weakness is still at the corners and a team that can exploit it (and I’m not sure if there is one left) can pass. It drives me crazy when our corners don’t turn around and look for the ball. Hardin Simmons took advantage of it….just not enough to win.
Going in to yesterday’s game, I only knew of Washington and Jefferson from their press clippings. A great QB with 3 great receivers. Our worst nightmare. But, when I entered the stadium I saw something shocking. It prompted me to post this message here.
W&J was TINY. Bobby Swallow and a couple of his receivers looked the part, but the offensive and defensive lines looked tiny. Not that it’s their fault. I was just expecting a wall to protect Swallow. How did this team win so many? Were most of Swallow’s passes the quick hitters? UMHB ran at will because our line dominated.
I’m looking forward to getting UW-Whitewater on our field. I think the weather makes a HUGE difference in these games. In cold weather, the passing game is turned down and the bigger teams that can run inside have the advantage. When the weather is a little better, I think the more balanced team has the edge.
And at this moment in time, I think that’s exactly what UMHB is. A balanced team. We can pass a lot more than we’ve had to (what was the stat yesterday? 5 completeions…4 for touchtowns?). Our defensive line has figured it out. Even our defensive backs have gotten better. Saenz has really gained the confidence to be exactly the QB that we need.
I’m anxious to see how big Whitewater really is.
December 7th, 2008 at 11:42 pm
CentexCoog,
I can tell you, Whitewater is BIG, PHYSICAL, STRONG and well coached. I have seen them play several times and they are the defending champs. We better play better, or at least par the last 2 games, or we will get beat.
December 8th, 2008 at 10:20 am
Cru,
On defense, I think we have a good shot because our run defense is actually our strength now. That hasn’t always been the case. From what I understand, Whitewater is a running team. That’s what shocked me about the W&J coaches comments about needing to run the ball. Our weakness is our pass coverage.
On offense, it’s all about how they defend the option. We aren’t a come from behind team. We have to be able to run the ball.
Either way – I’m just very excited that it’s a home game and that the weather should be somewhat warm (in comparason with up north).