Some pretty good teams will be going home today, as well as some not-so-good teams. Someone has to play the part of Mount St. Mary’s or Florida A&M in this bracket, but that shouldn’t make the trip less memorable for them or make the conference championship any less of a recruiting boost among their prospects.

Later in the day, the site probably will get slow. One of the things we do when we have to keep the site operating under heavy traffic is close down the Daily Dose. We always hope it won’t come to that, but I just wanted you to be forewarned.

Scoreboard, Twitter, Daily Dose, lots of live video (more than half of the games). Plenty of ways to get your fix.

St. John’s and Coe trade fumbles. Then SJU’s Bobby Klint drops a wide-wide-open INT. 13-7 Coe 4:29 2nd.

Daily Dose closed. Get updates here:
http://twitter.com/d3football

Undoing an element of those expectations is the fact that there are no seeds attached to any of the games listed below. Consider this, then, to be a blank slate of sorts. Pat Coleman, Keith McMillan and I give you our individual predictions for Saturday. We didn’t collaborate in any way on these (no discussions, no sneak peeks, etc.) and it appears we have picked a consensus winner in all but a handful of games.

The postseason Triple Take predictions are not intended to be lines on the games, but rather a broad test of outcome vs. expectations.

– Ryan Tipps

Pat: Mount Union 53, Washington and Jefferson 10
Ryan: Mount Union 42, Washington and Jefferson 10
Keith: Mount Union 35, Washington and Jefferson 16

Pat: Montclair State 24, Maine Maritime 19
Ryan: Montclair State 20, Maine Maritime 17
Keith: Montclair State 19, Maine Maritime 7

Pat: Alfred 31, Albright 27
Ryan: Alfred 24, Albright 20
Keith: Alfred 28, Albright 27

Pat: Delaware Valley 37, Susquehanna 14
Ryan: Delaware Valley 31, Susquehanna 13
Keith: Delaware Valley 28, Susquehanna 10

Pat: Wesley 41, North Carolina Wesleyan 17
Ryan: Wesley 34, North Carolina Wesleyan 14
Keith: Wesley 31, North Carolina Wesleyan 3

Pat: Huntingdon 38, Mississippi College 35
Ryan: Mississippi College 24, Huntingdon 7
Keith: Mississippi College 28, Huntingdon 17

Pat: Hampden-Sydney 38, Johns Hopkins 20
Ryan: Hampden-Sydney 28, Johns Hopkins 14
Keith: Hampden-Sydney 35, Johns Hopkins 14

Pat: Thomas More 20, DePauw 17
Ryan: DePauw 20, Thomas More 17
Keith: Thomas More 20, DePauw 9

Pat: UW-Whitewater 58, Lakeland 7
Ryan: UW-Whitewater 52, Lakeland 6
Keith: UW-Whitewater 44, Lakeland 0

Pat: Illinois Wesleyan 24, Wabash 20
Ryan: Illinois Weseylan 28, Wabash 21
Keith: Illinois Wesleyan 14, Wabash 13

Pat: Trine 35, Case Western Reserve 31
Ryan: Case Western Reserve 41, Trine 31
Keith: Case Western Reserve 31, Trine 21

Pat: Wittenberg 20, Mount St. Joseph 6
Ryan: Wittenberg 17, Mount St. Joseph 9
Keith: Wittenberg 21, Mount St. Joseph 3

Pat: Coe 10, St. John’s 7
Ryan: St. John’s 28, Coe 7
Keith: St. John’s 14, Coe 12

Pat: St. Thomas 31, Monmouth 24
Ryan: Monmouth 34, St. Thomas 31
Keith: Monmouth 31, St. Thomas 28

Pat: Mary Hardin-Baylor 28, Central 17
Ryan: Central 21, Mary Hardin-Baylor 17
Keith: Mary Hardin-Baylor 27, Central 24, 2OT

Pat: Linfield 31, Cal Lutheran 14
Ryan: Linfield 38, Cal Lutheran 20
Keith: Linfield 28, Cal Lutheran 21

Before 1999, the bracket was seeded fairly simply: There were only 16 teams in the playoffs, four in each bracket, always four from each region and they never crossed over. The seedings followed the last regional ranking. Hosting privileges in the national semifinals rotated from region to region.

Starting in 1999 and beyond, the bracket got larger and more complicated, but we always got seeds from the NCAA, applied them to the bracket and passed them along to you, the Division III football players, fans and coaches. This year, apparently the seedings were never even discussed.

I explained that that seemed unlikely — that somehow they had determined who would play whom and who had home games this weekend. Therefore, there must be some pecking order of teams somewhere. I mentioned that our readers are familiar with the occasions where No. 1 does not play No. 8 because of geography, or No. 2 does not play No. 7, etc. I said that people understood that teams were seeded by bracket, not by region. I said you people know that sometimes teams cannot host because they didn’t file paperwork, or their stadium doesn’t meet standards.

But none of this had an effect.

I explained that openness was a good thing. That men’s and women’s soccer released their final regional rankings. That, as a result of the discussion at the NCAA Convention, everyone will be going in that direction soon, next year even.

But that didn’t help. They would have to reconvene the committee in order to seed teams.

What we can get, and we will pass along to you, is a set of scenarios that determine who will play where in the next round depending on who wins this week.

That will have to be what passes for openness.

But for the first time in my experience following the playoffs, back to 1994, we won’t know who will go where. Not yet.

What does the selection of Washington and Jefferson mean for future NCAA playoffs? What message does it send to coaches who want to schedule to help their teams get into the tournament? I think it’s fair to say Keith McMillan and Pat Coleman are more than a little concerned.

Plus, Keith and Pat break down the entire bracket and talk about all 16 first-round games, including the fact that one bracket has the No. 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 and 10 teams in the country in it? If only it had No. 1 and No. 2, it would be a men’s basketball bracket.

Yes, truth be told, it could be worse. That’s why we’re not calling it a Bracket of Death. But it’s a great bracket, with four games between teams that all have a legitimate chance of winning first-round games.

That makes this a long podcast, but hopefully worth it. At least if you’re a fan of a playoff team. Or the playoffs in general.

Click the play button below to listen.

You can load the podcast page in iTunes or can also get this and any of our future Around the Nation podcasts automatically by subscribing to this RSS feed: http://www.d3football.com/dailydose/?feed=podcast

It’s an interesting conversation that any Division III fan who wants to understand the NCAA’s thought process should really listen to.

Click the play button below to listen.

You can load the podcast page in iTunes or can also get this and any of our future Around the Nation podcasts automatically by subscribing to this RSS feed: http://www.d3football.com/dailydose/?feed=podcast

Enjoy.

http://www.d3boards.com/playoffs/footballbracket2009.pdf

Plus, Advantage Catdome archived the selection show and posted it to YouTube, where you can watch it below:

This year at this time … well, it’s done.

Wednesday night’s projected hold up pretty well. All of the at-large teams remain the same, though selected in a different order. And the wrinkle of Maine Maritime, which is so far away from the rest of the field that there’s only one team in our projection it can drive to, actually got a fairly simple solution, if surprising to some.

But enough with the chit-chat and on with the brackets. Pool B and Pool C teams are noted. The rest got automatic bids.

Bracket 1
1. Mount Union
2. Delaware Valley
3. Alfred
4. Mary Hardin-Baylor (Pool C)
5. Montclair State
6. Maine Maritime
7. Johns Hopkins
8. Susquehanna

The games: Susquehanna at Mount Union; winner faces the winner of Maine Maritime and Mary Hardin-Baylor. Johns Hopkins at Delaware Valley; winner faces the winner of Montclair State at Alfred.

Why? Maine Maritime could only drive to one place: Montclair State. Mary Hardin-Baylor doesn’t have an opponent it can drive to. (Or, more accurately, it could drive to Mississippi College, but that would leave Huntingdon without an opponent. Basically, two flights are required in the first round no matter how we arrange the 32 teams, so why not match UMHB this way?)

Bracket 2
1. UW-Whitewater
2. Wittenberg
3. Case Western Reserve (Pool B)
4. Illinois Wesleyan
5. Coe (Pool C)
6. Wabash (Pool C)
7. Trine
8. Mount St. Joseph

The games: Mount St. Joseph at UW-Whitewater; winner faces winner of Coe at Illinois Wesleyan. Wabash at Case Western Reserve (again, yes); winner faces winner of Trine at Wittenberg.

Why? Coe wasn’t going to be in this bracket, but there’s a bind in the West that would either force Coe and Central to play each other or put Coe at St. John’s in the first round. Coe can get to Illinois Wesleyan easily within 500 miles, as well at UW-Whitewater.

Bracket 3
1. Wesley (Pool B)
2. Thomas More
3. Hampden-Sydney
4. Huntingdon (Pool B)
5. Albright (Pool C)
6. Mississippi College
7. Ohio Northern (Pool C)
8. North Carolina Wesleyan

The games: North Carolina Wesleyan at Wesley; winner faces winner of Mississippi College at Huntingdon. Ohio Northern at Thomas More; winner faces winner of Albright at Hampden-Sydney.

Why? Well, Ohio Northern is here because it’s closer to the rest of the teams than DePauw is, even though DePauw is in the NCAA’s South Region. I put Albright here instead of swapping them with Johns Hopkins because Albright would likely have had been seeded to play Delaware Valley if both were in the same bracket.

Bracket 4
1. St. John’s
2. Central
3. Linfield
4. Monmouth
5. St. Thomas
6. Cal Lutheran
7. DePauw
8. Lakeland

The games: Lakeland at St. John’s; winner faces winner of St. Thomas and Monmouth. Cal Lutheran at Linfield; winner faces winner of DePauw and Central.

Why? Cal Lutheran was going to play Linfield no matter what. Central nudged ahead of Linfield in my mind with a .537 SOS compared to Linfield’s .508. Each was 1-0 against teams in our mock regional ranking: UW-Stevens Point did not make the ranking.

When Ohio Northern was selected as our last Pool C team, Springfield, Washington and Jefferson and St. Norbert were left on the board. Ohio Northern has a win against a regionally ranked team, which those teams lacked.

The final board, with regional record, strength of schedule and results against regionally ranked opponents:

Springfield 7-2 .568 lost to ALF
Ohio Northern 8-2 .537 beat NCC, lost to MTU
Wash. & Jeff. 9-1 .433 lost to TMRE
St. Norbert 9-1 .491 lost to MONM

This is a fairly unusual-looking bracket for those who may still be stuck in the pre-Pools era and expect to see only East, South, North and West teams in their respective brackets. But when you have a South team from Indiana and another from suburban Cincinnati … when you have three East teams from Pennsylvania and a South team even further East, in Delaware, you simply cannot build a bracket that makes sense to the old guard.

This bracket makes the best use of the limited first-round flight resources, and does so in a responsible manner. It makes sense.

We’ll see if it makes the big screen tomorrow.

I was at this game last year, at Wabash, but I think I might have a better view today.

Aside from that, of course, the five head-to-head championship games, Pool C teams trying to win out and Pool B teams basically secure and looking to preserve their seeding.

We’ll also track who’s in the field, with 11 bids left to hand out.

Have at it! Big day! We’ll have a final set of playoff projections tonight, hopefully pretty early.

Closed to comments temporarily while system load is high.

The conferences with automatic bids are listed below:

ASC Mississippi College
CC Johns Hopkins
CCIW Illinois Wesleyan
E8 Alfred
HCAC Mount St. Joseph
IIAC Central
LL Susquehanna
MAC Delaware Valley
MIAA Trine
MIAC St. John’s
MWC Monmouth
NATHC Lakeland
NCAC Wittenberg
NEFC Maine Maritime
NJAC Montclair State
NWC Linfield
OAC Mount Union
ODAC Hampden-Sydney
PAC Thomas More
SCAC DePauw
SCIAC Cal Lutheran
USAC North Carolina Wesleyan
WIAC UW-Whitewater

– Ryan Tipps

Game of the Week

Ryan’s take: Amherst at Williams. Looking at the key games around the country, it’s going to be hard not to touch on rivalry games several times in this Triple Take. But I feel I have to highlight this off-the-grid matchup, of sorts. I say “off the grid” because while many teams are playing for the chance to continue into Week 12, the Lord Jeffs and Ephs will play for pride and the NESCAC title, the latter being something that hasn’t happened since 2002. The teams are a combined 13-1, with Amherst undefeated after having taken down perennial powerhouse Trinity (Conn.). Williams, however, is on a powerful run over its last five games, and if my wallet weren’t empty, I’d put my money in that camp come Saturday.

Keith’s take: Wabash at DePauw. There are SO many huge games and rivalry clashes to choose from, literally from coast (Colby at Bowdoin) to coast (Pomona-Pitzer vs. Claremont-Mudd-Scripps). If it’s the last game of the season, or a senior’s career, then it’s somebody’s game of the week. The careful observer knows where my GOTW is, but for national impact, this Monon Bell game has it all. Forget about the rivalry, the trophy, the pomp and circumstance – okay, don’t forget – and consider: A DePauw (7-1) victory cripples the Little Giants’ playoff potential and draws cheers from Pennsylvania to Texas to Wisconsin, where other at-large hopefuls will sit on pins and needles Sunday. A Wabash (8-1) win sends a ripple through the potential playoff bracket, likely putting the Little Giants in the field.

Pat’s take: No. 24 Kean at Montclair State. This has to be considered a winner-take-all game. But in addition to the NJAC title and playoff implications, there’s an extra layer or two. The schools overlap each other in northern New Jersey. The Kean coaching staff is part of the Montclair State coaching tree, with Dan Garrett having first played at Montclair State and then coached under Rick Giancola before moving to Kean. Last year, Kean may well have kept Montclair out of the playoffs with a 21-17 win at Kean in Week 11.

Surprisingly close game

Ryan’s take: Johns Hopkins at McDaniel. Never mind the fact that the Green Terror are in the midst of their best season since 2005. They also tend to sneak up on a lot of opponents. With a playoff bid in the balance, JHU can’t afford to take any part of this game for granted. On most days, I’m not certain that McDaniel could keep a player like Andrew Kase in check while also guarding against the long ball, but as I said, McDaniel does have its sly moments.

Keith’s take: No. 17 Delaware Valley at Widener. Assuming the 3-6 Pride have any, I could see them pushing the Aggies,  who are already in the playoffs and should be most concerned with staying healthy and taking any kind of victory they can. Against a tough schedule, Widener is scoring 22 points a game and allowing 26. After a 3-1 start and a five-game slide, they could put up a spirited effort in an attempt to finish on a high note.

Pat’s take: Kalamazoo at Hope. These teams also play for a pair of shoes. Wooden ones, in fact. Kalamazoo hasn’t been within two touchdowns of Hope since 2004, losing the past four by an average of 36 points.

Most likely Top 25 team to get upset

Ryan’s take: No. 23 Otterbein, by John Carroll. I wouldn’t put it past John Carroll to keep this game within reach throughout the entire 60 minutes. They’re just middle-of-the-pack enough to be able to upset some good opponents. And both teams are in jeopardy of seeing their season sputter out, and it could come down to which is less willing to let that happen.

Keith’s take: No. 20 Washington & Jefferson, by Waynesburg. All the playoff projecting has made very little mention of the 8-1 Presidents, partially because a win against this week’s opponent, the 5-4 Yellowjackets, would leave W&J with nine wins over zero teams with better-than-.500 records. If the Presidents have caught wind of how bleak their playoff hopes are, they could lose focus and stumble.

Pat’s take: No. 15 Wabash, by DePauw. Is it cheating to look for the upset in a rivalry game where we are apparently required to throw out the records?

They’ll be on your radar

Ryan’s take: Greensboro. In their short lifetime since 1997, the Pride have never put together a season better than .500. Now, the team stands at 5-4, squaring off against a Shenandoah team that’s better than its 1-8 record, but vulnerable nonetheless. Greensboro’s first-year coach seems to have lit a fire under this team, and if this turning of the corner is permanent, it will add a new dynamic to the USA South in the years to come.

Keith’s take: Spud Dick, Matt Hudson, Corey Sedlar, et. al. I’ll be very interested in the performance of quarterbacks of potentially playoff-bound teams in rivalry games. Especially one like Hudson, who missed Wabash’s only loss with a cracked rib, or one like Sedlar, who has led Hampden-Sydney to nine mostly easy wins but needs to lead them to a 10^th to guarantee a playoff bid. For Dick, there’s this dilemma: The Tigers already are one of the 32 teams who will have a shot at the Stagg Bowl. If they have designs on advancing, their best players need to remain healthy. Will there be even a sliver of temptation to play it safe, to run out of bounds instead of fighting for extra yardage, when the spectre of winning the rivalry game (again) in front of the season’s biggest crowd looms so large?

Pat’s take: North Carolina Wesleyan. Plus, if they beat Averett to win the USAC, it will mean the USA South can’t play Mount Union in the first round. NCWC is too far from Alliance. The Battling Bishops probably haven’t been on the radar since a Week 3 loss at Emory and Henry.

Which conference front-runner is most likely to play itself out of the postseason?

Ryan’s take: Concordia (Ill). While the Cougars have proved they can dominate the teams at the bottom of the NATHC, they’ve consistently struggled on the scoreboard against those middle-of-the pack squads, which include the team’s only loss this season. And this week’s opponent, Benedictine, has a tough enough defense, especially against the pass, that it could rattle Concordia.

Keith’s take: Alfred. Pat and Ryan called dibs on the easy ones, so I had to reach a little. The Saxons, riding high at 7-0 before last Saturday, face 4-5 Utica with the cruelest fate on the line. After averaging eight wins over the past five seasons without making the playoffs, it would be heartbreaking to see Alfred let it slip a sixth time.

Pat’s take: Johns Hopkins. There aren’t a lot of possibilities here, but who knows with Johns Hopkins at McDaniel. Once upon a time, McDaniel was a tough place to play, and the Green Terror are looking for their first winning season since 2004. A win seals that and maybe brings some respect back to a once-proud program.

Rivalry game you’re most interested in (alma maters excluded)

Ryan’s take: Hampden-Sydney at Randolph-Macon. Since Keith can’t pick this one, I’ll nab it. For the third time in a row, this game will decide which team gets the ODAC’s automatic bid to the playoffs. Both teams have followed similar arcs offensively, having solid pass games but facing questions during the preseason about their rushing attack. Those have been answered, yet one big edge goes to H-SC. The Tigers have been consistently more dominant on the defensive side of the ball this season.

Keith’s take: Mount St. Joseph at Thomas More. There are so many classic rivalries not getting much attention this week, including Cortland State-Ithaca, Coe-Cornell, Trinity (Conn.)-Wesleyan, Occidental-Whittier, Franklin-Hanover, Moravian-Muhlenberg, Frostburg State-Salisbury, Pacific Lutheran-Linfield and UW-Whitewater/UW-La Crosse. Forced to choose, I’m partial to the Bridge Bowl because it pits a pair of 9-0 teams playing for a likely first-round home game. The loser ends up with a tougher playoff draw that could lead to another loss next week.

Pat’s take: Mount St. Joseph at Thomas More. My alma mater isn’t playing in a rivalry game, so I’m free to pick the one I’m truly interested in. I am not sure what Mount St. Joseph has shown this season, with a schedule that’s not particularly strong. Thomas More is the best opponent the Lions have played, by far.

Who will have the least momentum going into the playoffs?

Ryan’s take: Mississippi College. I have no doubt that the Choctaws will get the ASC’s automatic bid, but going into Saturday, they’ve played three teams that are a combined 8-19 — and one of these games wound up being a loss. Also, Saturday’s opponent is just 0-9. Playing this kind of competition can make a team complacent, and especially if there’s a chance of again lining up against Mary Hardin-Baylor, the postseason result may not be as favorable for Mississippi College as the regular season one.

Keith’s take: Huntingdon. Anybody who loses Saturday but still gets in – DePauw is a candidate, as is the MSJ/Thomas More loser – fits the bill, but I doubt they’ll be coming off a 35-point whitewashing. The Hawks’ Thursday night loss to Division I South Alabama, which finished its inaugural season 7-0, is likely humbling, but shouldn’t affect the Hawks’ chances at a Pool B bid.

Pat’s take: Alfred. Based on Ryan’s theory, I actually would go with Case Western Reserve, which hasn’t played much of anyone all season. But I am thinking of Alfred, coming off a loss – and a big one – last week, followed by a game against Utica, a team they should be able to handle. That doesn’t exactly provide the opportunity to erase self-doubts. By the way, the exact opposite answer? Mount Union. Man, are the Purple Raiders on a roll or what?