D3football Daily Dose

Rivalries. Rankings. Conference titles. Playoff berths. At this point in the season, in Week 10 of 11 in the regular season, so much is on the line that very little needs to be said about what kind of week it is. So without further ado, Gordon Mann, Pat Coleman and Keith McMillan peer into their clouded crystal balls to give you an idea what might happen on Saturday:

Game of the Week
Gordon’s take: Rowan vs. No. 21 Montclair State. This one has the feel of previous showdowns when the Profs and Red Hawks played for the NJAC title and an NCAA playoff time. Cortland State took the first prize off the table but the later is still up for grabs. With the long list of one-loss teams, neither can afford to pick up a second. Montclair has the top defense in the conference (13.1 points per game) and Rowan the second (18.2) so don’t expect a shootout.
Pat’s take: Hampden-Sydney at Huntingdon. Nearly an elimination game, this is a rematch of a contest that was a seven-point game for most of the second half in Virginia last year. HSC is not in a great position to get an at-large bid at the moment and needs to beat regionally ranked Huntingdon to get into the South Region rankings itself.
Keith’s take: No. 25 Trine at Adrian. Between the rivalries and clashes of top 25 teams I highlighted in Around the Nation, there are plenty to choose from. I took the Thunder-Bulldogs because both No. 1 Mount Union and No. 12 Otterbein will have a path to the postseason no matter what happens Saturday. But of Trine and Adrian, one is head to the playoffs, forever to be remembered as the 2008 MIAA champs. The other’s fate is to close out a pretty good season in Week 11 and turn in the pads.

Surprisingly close game
Gordon’s take: Hartwick at Springfield. The Hawks still are in the Empire 8 title hunt while this season has been a struggle for the 2-6 Pride. And Hartwick’s defense has enabled its potent offense to put weaker teams away by comfortable margins. But this is the home finale for Springfield, including three senior offensive linemen. Look for the Pride to show some, um, pride and keep this close.
Pat’s take: Ursinus at No. 6 Muhlenberg. I’m picturing the Ursinus team that went on the road and won at Alfred making another appearance. Since the Bears’ only other wins since then are against Juniata and McDaniel, a combined 3-14, it makes it a tough sell, though.
Keith’s take: Augustana at No. 2 North Central. I have a bad feeling about this one for North Central, and perhaps not for any logical reason. The 6-2 Vikings have been hot and the Cardinals have everything to lose. With a conference title, playoff spot and perhaps a No. 1 seed in North Central’s grasp, the pressure could become overwhelming, the play tight and the game way too close for comfort.

Most likely Top 25 team to get upset
Gordon’s take: No. 14 UW-Stevens Point. Trine is my first pick but I’ll save them for later. UW-Stevens Point has certainly made things exciting for themselves and the conference. Back-to-back one-point wins keep the Pointers in control of their own playoff destiny, but how many times can they do it? And can they do it on the road against UW-Eau Claire?
Pat’s take: No. 2 North Central. I’m going about as far up the poll as one reasonably can here, yes. Augustana looks like it’s getting the hang of the offense, going 28-for-41 through the air in their past two games (not counting a 13-for-15 in the North Park game).
Keith’s take: No. 15 Occidental. If the Tigers lost 67-61 to a 4-5 Whittier team when the playoffs were in their grasp last season, perhaps a stumble against 2-5 Pomona-Pitzer isn’t far-fetched. Consistency is the name of the game, and Occidental, playing at home for the first time since Oct. 4, must demonstrate it.

They’ll be on your radar
Gordon’s take: Husson. With a win against Becker, the Eagles will finish the season 7-0 against Division III opponents and stand on the brink of making Wesley fans very unhappy. Case Western takes one of three Pool B bids by winning out. Huntingdon is already ahead of Wesley in the regional rankings and seems a safe bet to stay that way unless the Hawks lose. There have been stranger playoff picks than Husson – okay, picks that are just strange – so don’t count out Husson or idle Northwestern (Minn.) as the third team selected.
Pat’s take: Adrian. This is a matchup of two teams on a roll, and with Adrian hosting, with the conference title on the line, I’m going with the home team. The score comparisons are fairly even … if you throw out the Hope and Kalamazoo results.
Keith’s take: Trinity (Conn). A win against 1-6 rival Wesleyan and the Bantams finish their fourth undefeated season since 2003. We’ll never know how this dynasty compares to others in Division III, but they at least deserve a little attention for the feat if they in fact pull it off this weekend.

Who has the hardest road to clinching a share of a conference title: Ithaca against Alfred, North Central against Augustana, or Adrian against Trine?
Gordon’s take: Trine. The Thunder have played a lot of close games and face an opponent that has quietly rolled through MIAA play. As a point of comparison, Hope lost to Trine by 1 and Adrian by 36. Trine rushes for 194.5 yards per game on the ground and holds opponents to 53 rushing yards per game. That’s second in the conference – guess who’s first in both categories.
Pat’s take: Ithaca. It’s the first home game in 35 days for Alfred, in case the Saxons need extra incentive. The Saxons have been close to the playoffs in recent years and been left out, even, dare we say, snubbed, so they know that they need to win the conference title.
Keith’s take: North Central. As I said, Augustana for some reason sounds like trouble to me. The Cardinals have to fight not only a 6-2 team that’s figuring its spread offense out, but also the enormous weight of expectations.

Which winless team earns its first victory?
Gordon’s take: Buffalo State. Man, hard to believe the Bengals are even in this conversation. I remember making a long drive on the New York State Thruway to Buffalo with Ray Martel to cover a game there with postseason implications. This one’s for you, Ray – I’m taking Buff State.
Pat’s take: Maranatha Baptist. They are outmanned by almost every Division III team but have put together two decent performances the past two weeks against teams a combined 7-9. A win could turn into two before the season’s over and give this struggling program something to work from in the offseason. … And Gordon, thanks for remembering the good-old days, when we had a D3football.com Game of the Week and had several thrillers in a row.
Keith’s take: Buffalo State. It’s one thing to say a winless teams needs a victory. It’s quite another for them to have a chance to get it against another winless team. Morrisville State’s transition to Division III hasn’t been smooth and will get less so when the Bengals take out their frustrations.

Come Saturday evening, how many teams will be tied at the top of the MIAC?
Gordon’s take: Three. St. John’s over Augsburg, Gustavus over St. Olaf and Concordia-Moorhead narrowly over Carleton. That makes three teams 5-2. Whatever the opposite of a stone cold lock is, that’s one of them.
Pat’s take: Two. I see Augsburg over St. John’s, Concordia-Moorhead over Carleton, Gustavus Adolphus over St. Olaf, leaving Concordia and Gustavus at 5-2. Though giving Jerry Haugen and the SJU defense a bye week to prepare for Augsburg makes me doubt that first pick.
Keith’s take: Two. With a possible six-way tie on the table, and the possible invocation of the dreaded Rose Bowl Rule tiebreaker, it’s more like wishful thinking that the MIAC can narrow itself down to an either-or scenario for Week 11.

Which long-running rivalry has the closest game?
Gordon’s take: Amherst-Williams. The Lord Jeffs and Ephs are 5-2 and will be as amped as possible for the 123rd installment of their rivalry. Williams looks like the favorite on paper but Amherst’s home field advantage should even things out.
Pat’s take: Kalamazoo-Albion. The 122nd meeting but the first for Jamie Zorbo as head coach. This was a 16-14 loss for Kalamazoo in Zorbo’s senior year of 1999, when Kalamazoo went 2-4 in the league and Albion went 5-1. And as an assistant at DePauw last season, he saw first-hand how to get a team up for a rivalry game.
Keith’s take: Bowdoin-Colby. This is it for the Polar Bears and White Mules, who meet for the 120th time since 1892. Bowdoin will be looking to come away with an outright title in the CBB rivalry that also includes fellow Maine school Bates.

The NCAA released its second 2008 regional rankings today.

Teams are listed with their regional record first, followed by their overall record. For more information about the playoff format and how participants are determined, check out our FAQ.

East Region
1. Cortland State 8-0 8-0
2. RPI 7-0 7-0
3. Ithaca 6-1 7-1
4. Montclair State 7-1 7-1
5. Rowan 7-1 7-1
6. Hartwick 6-1 6-1
7. Hobart 6-1 6-1
8. Plymouth State 7-1 8-1
9. Husson 6-0 6-2
10. Curry 7-1 8-1

North Region
1. Mount Union 7-0 8-0
2. North Central (Ill.) 8-0 8-0
3. Otterbein 8-0 8-0
4. Wabash 7-0 8-0
5. Trine 8-0 8-0
6. Case Western Reserve 7-0 8-0
7. Franklin 6-1 7-1
8. Adrian 6-1 7-1
9. Augustana 6-2 6-2
10. Wooster 4-2 6-2

South Region
1. Millsaps 7-0 8-0
2. Muhlenberg 8-0 8-0
3. Mary Hardin-Baylor 6-0 7-1
4. Hardin-Simmons 8-1 8-1
5. Thomas More 7-1 7-1
6. Huntingdon 7-0 8-0
7. Trinity (Texas) 6-1 7-1
8. Washington and Jefferson 6-1 7-1
9. Catholic 6-1 7-1
10. Wesley 2-1 6-1

West Region
1. Willamette 7-0 8-0
2. Occidental 7-0 7-0
3. Monmouth 9-0 9-0
4. UW-Stevens Point 4-1 7-1
5. UW-Whitewater 6-1 7-1
6. Redlands 6-1 6-1
7. Northwestern (Minn.) 8-1 8-1
8. St. John’s 6-2 6-2
9. Gustavus Adolphus 6-2 6-2
10. Linfield 4-2 5-2

Keith McMillan was in San Antonio to get a first-hand look at Millsaps and found that and some more for this week’s Around the Nation podcast. Plus, Keith and Pat look at the week that was, on a busy week in Division III with a lot of playoff implications.

If you’re a fan of a team looking for an at-large bid, who do you root for? Who do you root against? We’ve got a laundry list of results that will help your bubble team’s cause. Just listen.

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Maybe that’s not the most important thing happening today but it seemed noteworthy, as Keith McMillan, who was taking the local rather than the express from Washington, D.C., to San Antonio, made both of his connections and landed at the site of today’s big showdown less than an hour ago.

Yes, No. 5 Millsaps and No. 14 Trinity (Texas) have a handful of subplots which we have already mentioned on the front page and which Jason Bowen wrote about in Around the South this week, so I won’t rehash them here.

Going on elsewhere, we can confirm a report that eight Delaware Valley defensive starters will not start this afternoon’s home game against Widener because of a violation of team rules. And last night, the three UMAC Dome day games were played at the Metrodome. I wasn’t able to attend because I had Halloween festivities to handle at home, unfortunately. Found it ironic after I saw the event last year despite living 1,200 miles away.

We’ll keep track, too, of who has clinched automatic bids, since we could have a few today. Chime in with what you’re seeing, as always, and if Keith gets on the Internet where he is hopefully he’ll join in. Otherwise I will be watching the game on the live video stream as much as possible.

In this case, the eighth time was the charm. Last week, all our Game of the Week picks were good ones, two of our Top 25 upset picks hit, teams properly got onto the radar and two of our surprisingly close games were both close and surprising.

Not sure if we can match that record here in Week 9, but Keith McMillan, Ryan Tipps and I will try.

Game of the Week
Ryan’s take: No. 10 Wesley at No. 16 Salisbury. In the preseason Kickoff guide, I had picked this as my most anticipated game of the year – and the stakes seem to have grown even bigger than I expected. Based on the first installment of the NCAA’s regional rankings, the loser’s chance of getting a playoff bid seems questionable. The winner, on the other hand, will almost certainly get to pass Go and have their playoff payday.
Keith’s take: No. 5 Millsaps at No. 14 Trinity (Texas). A battle of unbeaten teams. Conference title implications. An effect felt as far away as Pennsylvania regarding likely South Region playoff seeding. Yeah. That’s nothing. Subtext galore here: Millsaps, humbled on ESPN and all over the internet by last season’s 15-lateral, game-winning Riley Curry touchdown on the ‘Miracle in Mississippi’ might never be able to return the favor, but they wouldn’t mind humbling the Tigers.
Pat’s take: No. 19 UW-Eau Claire at No. 6 UW-Whitewater. This is the non-conference matchup between two teams that played in Week 2. So these teams know each other just a little better than usual. Plus, this is already a Pool C elimination game for Eau Claire and possibly for Whitewater as well. Last time around, Whitewater settled for field goals three times and survived with a 16-14 win.

Surprisingly close game
Ryan’s take: No. 4 Muhlenberg at Dickinson. The Mules have been caught a little off-guard at times, eking out tight wins against Johns Hopkins and Franklin & Marshall in conference play. Dickinson is on par with those two squads – and has a better playmaker under center. And as far as the stat sheets are concerned, it’s rare to find two teams such as Muhlenberg and Dickinson that are so evenly matched on all major offensive and defensive fronts.
Keith’s take: Plymouth State at MIT. The Panthers took control of the NEFC Boyd race and made themselves the playoff bid favorite with a win against Curry last week, but the 5-3 Engineers will be a stout test. RB DeRon Brown, who rushes for a national-best 184 yards per game and has scored 21 touchdowns, should give MIT a chance.
Pat’s take: Marietta at No. 18 Otterbein. This game is sandwiched right in between Capital and Mount Union for Otterbein. ’Nuff said.

Most likely Top 25 team to get upset
Ryan’s take: No. 9 Washington & Jefferson. Thomas More’s Week 1 loss to John Carroll must feel like ancient history at this point in the season. Even with three games left, the Saints are riding high, getting a whiff of the playoffs and having their best season in half a decade.
Keith’s take: No. 6 UW-Whitewater. Who knows if it’s really likely, but it’s a startling prospect, that our defending champion could go from No. 2 with first place votes to out of the playoff picture in two weeks. No. 19 UW-Eau Claire lost 16-14 at home in Week 2, the game that counted in the WIAC standings, but both coaching staffs get a do-over when the teams meet for the second time, in a “non-conference” game.
Pat’s take: No. 22 RPI. With Union unveiling a revamped defensive scheme last week against St. Lawrence, which gave up some rushing yardage but just 14 points, none of them after the first quarter. RPI has averaged just 109 yards per game on the ground since the Engineers’ opening two games against Endicott and Utica, so the key for Union is containing quarterback Jimmy Robertson.

They’ll be on your radar
Ryan’s take: East Texas Baptist. The Tigers’ opponent, Mary Hardin-Baylor, can be interpreted as being out for blood or picking itself up after last week’s loss. What’s more interesting is whether ETBU can capitalize against a team that has shown its flaws.
Keith’s take: I’m curious to see if Cal Lutheran is legitimate, and hosting No. 20 Occidental is their chance to prove it. Also I’ll be keeping an eye on No. 22 RPI since I really want to be there as well as in San Antonio.
Pat’s take: Adrian. The Bulldogs should beat Alma and set up a showdown with Trine for the top spot in the MIAA next week. Adrian’s only overall loss is to the healthy Capital back in Week 1.

Which conference front-runner faces the biggest challenge from a current runner-up: Christopher Newport at N.C. Wesleyan, Northwestern against Crown, or Muhlenberg at Dickinson?
Ryan’s take: Christopher Newport at N.C. Wesleyan. After needing the first couple weeks of the season to adjust to a new head coach and the loss of a good senior class, the Bishops have found ways to put points on the board. Turns out though, behind a running back that put up 225 and 254 yards in his last two outings, that’s CNU’s specialty, too. Repeat after me the key to winning: d-e-f-e-n-s-e.
Keith’s take: Christopher Newport. N.C. Wesleyan seems to have hit its stride, winning four of five and averaging 40.5 points per game in its past four.
Pat’s take: Trinity (Conn.) vs. Amherst. I’m going to go off the script here because I don’t see the UMAC outcome being different than it was when Northwestern won on the road at Crown in September. I think Amherst will provide a bigger challenge to the Bantams.

Which team impresses the most in Week 9 coming off of a lopsided loss last week: Capital, Linfield or Wheaton?
Ryan’s take: Wheaton. As the only team of this bunch playing an opponent with a winning record, the Thunder at least have the biggest opportunity to be impressive. Capital and Linfield will spend the weekend picking on their conferences’ bottom rungs. Wheaton still has a Pool C bid to think about.
Keith’s take: Wheaton. A win at 5-2 Elmhurst would be a strong bounce-back for Wheaton from a thumping at the hands of North Central. Playing a team you know can beat you if you don’t play your best is the best motivation for a week of practice.
Pat’s take: Capital. It’s three losses in a row for the Assmann-less Crusaders and they need a win pretty badly in their final home game.

How will the cluster of East Region teams with one regional loss get solved this week?
Ryan’s take: It won’t. Worcester Polytech will drop off, though, replaced by the in-region one-loss St. John Fisher. The rest of the cluster will have to wait a week for any tangible change.
Keith’s take: It won’t. Hobart and WPI meet head-to-head and that will sort things a little bit. It’s possible we’ll see upsets, but the big games (Rowan-Montclair State and Cortland State-Ithaca) are still ahead.
Pat’s take: It’ll actually get more complicated. Because of the above-mentioned Union/RPI upset, that is. At least I have to be consistent within myself, right?

The NCAA released its first 2008 regional rankings today.

Teams are listed with their regional record first, followed by their overall record. For more information about the playoff format and how participants are determined, check out our FAQ.

EAST REGION
1. Cortland State 7-0 7-0
2. RPI 5-0 6-0
3. Ithaca 5-1 6-1
4. Montclair State 6-1 6-1
5. Rowan 6-1 6-1
6. Hartwick 5-1 5-1
7. Worcester Polytech 6-1 6-1
8. Hobart 5-1 5-1
9. Plymouth State 5-1 7-1
10. Husson 6-0 6-2

NORTH REGION
1. Mount Union 6-0 7-0
2. North Central (Ill.) 7-0 7-0
3. Otterbein 7-0 7-0
4. Wabash 6-0 7-0
5. Trine 7-0 7-0
6. Case Western Reserve 6-0 7-0
7. Wheaton (Ill.) 6-1 6-1
8. Franklin 5-1 6-1
9. Adrian 5-1 6-1
10. Rose-Hulman 7-1 7-1

SOUTH REGION
1. Muhlenberg 7-0 7-0
2. Millsaps 6-0 7-0
3. Washington and Jefferson 6-0 7-0
4. Trinity (Texas) 6-0 7-0
5. Mary Hardin-Baylor 5-0 6-1
6. Hardin-Simmons 7-1 7-1
7. Huntingdon 1-0 7-0
8. Catholic 5-1 6-1
9. Salisbury 2-0 7-1
10. Thomas More 6-1 6-1

WEST REGION
1. Willamette 7-0 8-0
2. Occidental 6-0 6-0
3. Monmouth 8-0 8-0
4. UW-Stevens Point 3-1 6-1
5. UW-Whitewater 5-1 6-1
6. Cal Lutheran 5-1 5-1
7. Redlands 5-1 5-1
8. Northwestern (Minn.) 5-1 7-1
9. Concordia-Moorhead 4-2 5-2
10. St. John’s 5-2 6-2

Hmm, yes, it’s getting late in the season and slowly but surely there are a lot fewer variables in the playoff picture.

Keith and I run through some of them, plus discuss the Top 25 distress from the past weekend, ponder the various choices for the No. 2 spot in our poll and on our ballots, consider how the NCAA might pair up West Coast and Southeast/Southwest teams that make the playoffs and the like. Plus Keith gives his take on a couple of interesting play calls, including taking points off the board.

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This is another good game day to be sitting in front of the virtual TV. I’m not entirely sure I will shell out $12 for the Linfield/Willamette game — and with our Adam Johnson on the scene in McMinnville, I know we’ll get a good perspective on the game anyway.

Tonight I’ll be watching the Wheaton/North Central game online. Still pondering what early game or games I’ll be following most closely this afternoon, but I’ll probably use one computer to surf through a bunch of games and the other to follow Otterbein/Capital or Whitewater/Stevens Point or the like.

Gordon Mann reports in from Williamsport, Pa., that the weather will have an impact on the Delaware Valley/Lycoming game. Lycoming still has grass, which is a couple years away from being in the minority. Just under half of Division III football fields have one of the various brands of infill artificial turf.

Where you’re at, I hope it’s mild and dry.

The news today that Division III football players won’t be able to participate in the Aztec Bowl this season only drives home more strongly the point that Division III football should have its own All-Star game.

The Aztec Bowl has been fine in a lot of ways. Sure, we wish it gave more players the chance to participate, or that it were held in a place that we could get to, or that it didn’t coincide with the Stagg Bowl or the playoffs, but it did provide three things: organization, funding and a ready-made opponent (the Mexican college league’s champion).

But after ONEFA dropped the ball, we can’t expect the AFCA to be left holding the bag for another $50,000, considering that would double what they already spend. I’m convinced we could do it cheaper, and I know we could do it better, here at home.

Why should we spend all the money it takes to fly people to Mexico and deal with all the administrative hassles required in crossing the border, etc.? Why should we tell seniors who play on the Stagg Bowl teams, or sometimes the semifinal teams, that they can’t play because Mexico schedules the game when it’s convenient for them?

For the vocal minority that insists the Stagg Bowl should be played in a warmer climate, here’s your chance. Let’s put the All-Star game in a warmer climate, scheduled after the Stagg Bowl, and see how it draws. Let’s give 96 seniors the chance to participate instead of 48.

And meanwhile, let’s find that all-important $100,000. Unfortunately, that’s a significant amount of money, far more than D3sports.com’s annual budget. (That’s why we all work full-time jobs.) But if scheduled in the right location, I think we can get it done.

This weekend not only put a new twist on a couple of rivalries, it put a new twist on some conferences’ standings as well. It’s not just the new mess at the top of the MAC, MIAC, and the like — it’s new second-place teams in conferences, teams that could be talked about for playoff at-large bids.

Keith McMillan and I discuss those in this week’s Around the Nation podcast.

Of course, there were those two fantastic finishes as well. Hear from the St. John’s defensive lineman who recovered St. Thomas’ fumble and the call of the game as Wabash knocked off Wittenberg (Brent Harris on the call).

You can load the podcast page in iTunes or can also get this and any of our future Around the Nation podcasts automatically by subscribing to this RSS feed: http://www.d3football.com/dailydose/?feed=podcast

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