D3football Daily Dose

Four teams clinched postseason berths last week, and more are sure to make the dance this week. In some cases, as was mentioned in the ATN Podcast, it’s going to mean learning tiebreaking procedures. Conferences such as the CCIW, SCAC and CC have the potential of becoming a little crowded at the top with these final two weeks arriving. Highlighting some of the nation’s most interesting matchups for Saturday are Ryan Tipps, Keith McMillan and Pat Coleman:

Game of the Week.

Ryan’s take: No. 12 Wheaton at No. 19 Illinois Wesleyan. There’s no question as to the magnitude of the shakeup in the CCIW, and with the loser on the fringes of Pool C chances with one loss already, this game could be do-or-die for these guys. Few teams have been able to score more than twice against the Titans this season, so keeping them off their game with a mix of rushers and receivers — which Wheaton is good at anyway — will be important for allowing the Thunder to move the ball.

Keith’s take: Albright at No. 20 Delaware Valley. The Aggies are the first of two 7-1 “Valley” teams that the Lions close the season with. The MAC title implications are obvious, but for those far from Pennsylvania holding out hope that the East Region can produce a playoff No. 1 seed for the first time in three years, you’ll want to root for Albright. At 10-0, with consecutive wins over one-loss teams, the Lions might have a shot. (Or they could lose both and play their way out of the postseason. No pressure though!)

Pat’s take: No. 10 St. Thomas at Bethel. Not to be the West Region homer again, sheesh, but both teams desperately need this game. A lot has been made of the teams’ at-large chances, but their MIAC title hopes aren’t entirely finished either, with St. John’s quarterback Joe Boyle out with a hand injury. Bethel comes in at 6-2, but with last-second losses to Wheaton and St. John’s. Promise I’m not just picking this game because I plan to be there.

Surprisingly close game.

Ryan’s take: Huntingdon at Birmingham-Southern. B-S might have four losses on the season, but a true blowout has happened only once. The Panthers are a far better squad this season than the 3-14 representation of its first two years, yet they will still have to be stepping up their game to be able to keep the Hawks’ point totals in check.

Keith’s take: William Paterson at Kean. The Cougars are so close to cementing the fact they’ve lifted the program out of the doldrums with an NJAC title and a playoff berth that it’d be hard not to look ahead to next week’s game with Montclair State. But great teams focus on the task at hand, and the 4-4 Pioneers have not been an easy victory for anybody. Three of their losses are by seven points or fewer, and three are to 7-1 Montclair, 6-2 Cortland (12-10) and 6-2 Rowan. Kean has to make sure it isn’t the good team that William Paterson finally knocks off.

Pat’s take: Allegheny at No. 14 Wittenberg. Especially if you like defense. Both teams are regionally ranked. Hard to picture Allegheny putting up more than the season-high seven points that Wittenberg has allowed all season, but the Gators might be able to keep it low-scoring, ergo, close.

Most likely Top 25 team to get upset.

Ryan’s take: No. 20 Delaware Valley, by Albright. While the Aggies’ backup quarterback barely missed a beat in his first start last week against King’s, undefeated Albright will pose a much more dangerous threat. Both team are vying for the MAC’s automatic qualifier, and all someone has to do is look at the stat sheets to see that one of these two teams lead the conference in almost every category. Maybe it’ll come down to who simply wants it more. But for a Top 25 Aggies squad, it won’t be a surprise if the Lions have the better hunt.

Keith’s take: No. 6 Central, by Wartburg. At 5-3, this is what’s referred to as a down year for the Knights. Nothing would perk it back up like a win over the rival Dutch, who could quite possibly be kicking up their feet mentally now that they’ve clinched the IIAC title and playoff spot. I wouldn’t bet on that though, as you don’t have to live in Iowa to know both teams get up for this game. No one’s kept it close with Central since Sept., so maybe they’re due for a nail-biter.

Pat’s take: No. 3 Wesley, by Lake Erie. It sounds like it’s been a trying week for the Wolverines. Lake Erie is a D-II school, barely, in just its second year of football and its second season at the Division II level. But the Storm have won four games in a row, including a home win against Salisbury. The only question in my mind is that this is a Wesley home game and a long trip from Ohio.

They’ll be on your radar.

Ryan’s take: Trine. The Thunder have already clinched a share of the MIAA title, but a win tomorrow means the automatic qualifier as well. Some opponents have played Trine closer than they should have, and Adrian will be one of the two or three best teams to line up against the team from Angola, Ind. Trine’s Achilles’ heel may be its pass defense, which could pose a problem with junior Mike McGee, who has thrown for 1,857 yards so far, starting for the Bulldogs.

Keith’s take: Mississippi College. The Choctaws had it all in their hands before a seven-turnover loss to Howard Payne on Saturday. They can still win the ASC and make the playoffs, but I’ll be watching closely this week to see how they bounce back from being humbled, and how they handle the insanely long trip to Sul Ross State, which a few hours from the middle of nowhere, as the joke goes. Alpine, Texas is much closer than that to the Mexican border.

Pat’s take: Hampden-Sydney. The Tigers haven’t been unbeaten this late in the season in quite some time. Although Salisbury is going to present a challenge that’s a little different than what the Tigers have seen this season, they have had an off week to prepare for the Sea Gulls’ option attack and need to finish with two wins to both lock down the ODAC title and guarantee a playoff home game.

A team that will clinch a share of the conference title on Saturday.

Ryan’s take: North Carolina Wesleyan. I’m making this pick not because the of how big a splash the Bishops are going to make this weekend by beating Shenandoah but rather because I think NCWC’s biggest threat to the postseason, Averett, is going to lose. That will leave the Cougars with two losses and put NCWC into the playoffs by way of the head-to-head win over Christopher Newport. Averett has had too many close calls for me to be confident that they can win out these last two games, which will be among their most grueling of the season.

Keith’s take: UW-Whitewater. Of the nine or so teams that have a chance to clinch on Saturday, none really have easy games. I think most of them will clinch, with an upset or two sprinkled in, but it’s not easy to anticipate just where those upsets will come. So when in doubt, lean on the team least likely to be upset. Normally that’d be Mount Union, but I’ll pay Otterbein some respect and say Whitewater will get it done against UW-Oshkosh. Way out on a limb picking a team outscoring it’s competition 41-7, on average, I know.

Pat’s take: Delaware Valley. I just think that Delaware Valley has to be far better prepared for this game. In the first five weeks of the season the Aggies played Johns Hopkins, Kean, Wesley and Lebanon Valley, teams that are a combined 28-4. Albright did not have a single non-conference opponent of that caliber and hasn’t played Lebanon Valley yet either. Tanner Kelly gives Albright a successful veteran quarterback, but Delaware Valley has a defense that has more interceptions than touchdowns allowed, gives up just 154 yards per game and allows 50 percent completions. Just saying.

Which season turnaround has been the most interesting?

Ryan’s take: Gallaudet. More than any other time in their three-year return to Division III, the Bison have found a way to consistently put points on the board. They’ve outrushed opponents more than 2-1 this year, with four players each racking up between 419 and 951 yards on the ground. Comparing year-to-year scores is impressive: Against Husson, a 49-0 loss last year became a 10-7 win this year; an overtime loss to Hiram in ’07 was now a 34-7 win. For a team that’s rebuilding itself on the varsity level, Gallaudet is taking some big leaps.

Keith’s take: Concordia (Ill.). The Cougars went 0-10 three times between 2002 and ’05, and hadn’t had better than a three-win season since we started the site. That they’re in control in the Northern Athletics Conference (that looks like a three-way tie, but the Cougars have beaten Lakeland and Concordia, Wis., the latter last Saturday in overtime) is no small feat. It seems as though teaching of head coach Lonnie Pries, hired in 2006, has sunk in as his first bunch of upperclassmen make their impact. The Cougars finish with a pair of 4-4 teams, Aurora and Benedictine, and for teams not used to winning, being consistent week to week is sometimes the highest hurdle.

Pat’s take: McMurry. Looking at their schedule, it’s like a light bulb turned on: four losses by an average of 41-19 followed by four wins by an average score of 38-21. Now, the schedule had a wee bit to do with that, but it’s still an interesting turnaround. And let’s be honest, the numbers are fun to look at: 328.9 yards passing and 41.2 rushing per game.

Which team will log its first win of the season?

Ryan’s take: Frostburg State, at Newport News. The Bobcats have picked up momentum against Division III teams during the second half of the season, playing close games against Ithaca and Randolph-Macon. This week, FSU lines up against conference opponent Newport News Apprentice, which won’t be able to stop the Bobcats if they get into a groove airing out the ball.

Keith’s take: Bates, against Bowdoin. Four of the Bobcats’ six losses were by 10 points or fewer, including the past three, so they haven’t given up. With Maine, NESCAC and CBB rival Bowdoin at 2-4 but averaging about as many points as it gives up, it’s not a given for Bates. But it could very well be one of those not-that-pretty, gut-it-out kind of wins, the kind that feel so sweet when it’s the only one you’ve had, and it’s against a rival.

Pat’s take: Rockford, at Maranatha Baptist. Although the Crusaders had reason for a little more optimism when the season started, this season hasn’t really looked any better than 2008, and after that season, we ranked Maranatha last overall. Against common opponents, Rockford and Maranatha have had strikingly similar results. Something in my gut thinks Rockford, which played a tougher non-conference schedule, is good enough to be a hair better here.

While Keith is off climbing South America’s five highest peaks, swimming with sharks off the Yucatan Peninsula, dog sledding in the Northwest Territories, or doing whatever else he may like to do on vacation, Deputy Managing Editor Gordon Mann is going to help us break down the Allhallows Eve matchups for this week’s Triple Take. Regional rankings are out, and only 32 teams can be in. Some teams are in for treats, while others are certain to get tricked.

Game of the Week
Ryan’s take: No. 11 Washington and Jefferson at No. 20 Thomas More. This is a game I’ve been looking forward to with curiosity for much of the season, primarily because I’ve been unconvinced as to how good the Presidents are this year. I’ve looked on Thomas More considerably more favorably throughout the past two months, and with both teams able to rest their laurels on their rushing offenses and defenses, it’ll be interesting to see how much of this comes down to the muscle in the trenches.
Gordon’s take: Rowan at Kean. These two teams have spent several weeks drawing a very bright line between the title contenders and the lower level teams in the NJAC. Now they put aside those impressive margins of victory in what could be a very entertaining match up. Which quarterback will lead his team to victory — Profs scrambler Frank Wilczynski (243 total yards per game, 11 touchdowns) or Cougars gun slinger Tom D’Ambrisi (222 passing yards per game, 14 passing touchdowns)?
Pat’s take: No. 2 UW-Whitewater at UW-Stevens Point. Do you think Whitewater got a little extra incentive this week? Whitewater lost to Stevens Point last year, costing it the WIAC’s automatic bid to the playoffs a second-round home game. And now, this week, Whitewater learned that it was the fourth-ranked team in the NCAA’s West Region rankings. So I am not picking this necessarily as a great game on the field, so to speak, but a showcase for what Whitewater can do.

Surprisingly close game.
Ryan’s take: Franklin at Rose-Hulman. No team in the HCAC may be in as good a position as the Engineers to put the brakes on Franklin’s passing game. And if Rose can keep the Grizzlies out of the red zone, they have a chance to make their five-touchdowns-a-game average really count.
Gordon’s take: No. 23 Delaware Valley vs. King’s. The Aggies defense has been very stingy, surrendering just seven points total to Wilkes and Lycoming. But Wilkes-Barre has always been a tough place for Del Val to play, plus the Aggies will be without senior quarterback Mike Isgro who is battling a sore shoulder. Instead junior Mark Hatty will get his first career start against a Monarchs squad that just missed beating Lycoming and hung in against Albright.
Pat’s take: Salisbury at No. 3 Wesley. I suspect Salisbury is only playing for Eastern Shore pride, perhaps an ECAC bowl game. The Sea Gulls don’t have enough firepower to get through the Wesley defense and hang with the Wesley offense, at least not on paper. But they’re rivals, after all … and can’t things happen in those games? Right?

Most likely Top 25 team to get upset.
Ryan’s take: No. 9 North Central. What more talked about kink in the CCIW hose would there be than for Illinois Wesleyan to bring together all the pieces and pull out the upset against North Central? Will the Cardinals be complacent after winning big last week against Wheaton? I doubt it, but Aaron Fanthorpe will need to be on target for the full 60 minutes because few teams can exploit turnovers the way Illinois Wesleyan has been able to this season.
Gordon’s take: No. 21 Occidental. The Tigers should be favored at home playing Cal Lutheran with a chance to take a strangle hold on the SCIAC. But they were at home last week, too, when they narrowly beat winless La Verne 14-13. The Kingsmen would still have to get by Redlands if they can pick up the road win here, but I like CLU to add some Hollywood level drama to the conference race.
Pat’s take: No. 24 Alfred. With injury questions about No. 1 quarterback Tommy Secky, who didn’t get out of the second quarter, I’d think that Rochester has a shot. The Yellowjackets are 3-4, but have only been blown out once, losing tight games to St. John Fisher, Union and Susquehanna while beating RPI and WPI.

They’ll be on your radar.
Ryan’s take: Salisbury. I haven’t decided whether this is a team that’s down and out, or just down. The Gulls are 2-2 against Division III teams, and all register as either quality wins or understandable losses. But with Wesley on tap for tomorrow, it’ll be important to know which Salisbury team is going to show up and whether this defense-heavy squad can come close to slowing the Wolverine machine.
Gordon’s take: No. 2 UW-Whitewater. Okay, it’s not that the Warhawks are off anyone’s radar. Nor do I think they’ll lose to UW-Stevens Point, despite the Pointers’ upset last year. But I’ve been as indecisive as Brett Favre at an offseason press conference on whether Mount Union or UW-Whitewater should be No. 1. This game will give us a point of comparison for the Warhawks similar to what we already have for Mount Union in its wins over Capital and Ohio Northern.

Based on preseason expectations, which team are you most surprised/impressed with to see in the regional rankings? And how will they fare Saturday?
Ryan’s take: The three MAC representatives. I hope I’m not stepping on Gordon’s turf too much here, but I couldn’t help but register the fact that last year, only one MAC team made an appearance on any of the regional rankings, and that was Albright at the very end of the regular season. It seemed like the polish had tarnished on the proud conference. This year, though, has marked an impressive resurgence for the conference top to bottom, going 16-8 in nonconference play, and getting three teams (Albright, Delaware Valley and Lebanon Valley) in the debut regional rankings. And come Saturday, all three should emerge winners.
Gordon’s take: No. 7 Otterbein. In the preseason I thought the Cardinals could be good, but probably not good enough to distinguish themselves from the talented scrum of OAC teams sitting behind Mount Union. And certainly not good enough to be ranked second in the first North region rankings. Otterbein needs one more win to equal last year’s 8-0 start with the trip to Alliance still looming on Nov. 7. The Cards will get it emphatically against Marietta (2-5).
Pat’s take: Coe. Although I seem to be typecasting myself as the West Region guy these days with this pick. Coming off a 4-6 season last year, the Kohawks were an afterthought in my projection of the IIAC race, but a Week 1 win against Augustana, and then a Week 7 win at Wartburg changed that. Coe shouldn’t have a problem at 2-5 Loras.

Which relatively new program has the best chance at a win this week?
Ryan’s take: St. Vincent. It wasn’t so long ago that the Bearcats were an easy win even for a team like Gallaudet, which was coming to the varsity level after years of club play. At 0-8, St. Vincent still isn’t a success story in the grand scheme of things, but a narrow 21-7 loss to W&J just two weeks ago suggests that they’re moving in the right direction. And both of the next two games (against Thiel and Bethany) are squarely in the “winnable” category.
Gordon’s take: Castleton State. The Spartans head to Becker which has scored more than one touchdown just once all year, a 62-39 loss to Maine Maritime. Castleton State has put some points this year and should be focused on this road game as a chance to notch its first win over a non-first year team. If the Spartans can go 3-6 in their first season, that’ll be a nice feather in their helmets when they recruit against the other very young programs in New England.
Pat’s take: St. Scholastica. Yeah, West guy. The Saints play Eureka on Friday in the Metrodome as part of the expanded UMAC’s Dome Day. I’d like to say Anna Maria, which hosts Gallaudet, can finish off its inaugural season with a win, but the Amcats have only been competitive against Castleton State.

Which conference without a team ranked in this week’s poll will go deepest in the playoffs?
Ryan’s take: Centennial. With four teams tied at the top, the team to get the automatic qualifier is still very much an unknown — and a Pool C isn’t out of the question either. But what I’ve seen of the Centennial teams is that when they’re healthy and on their game, they’re to be taken seriously. The conference this year is a classic beat-each-other-up scenario, leaving teams to easily fly under the radar. But that doesn’t mean they can’t drop some bombs on opponents into Round 2.
Gordon’s take: Essentially we’re looking for a surprise team who might be able to get two wins, and definitely one, in the playoffs. The East is definitely the easiest place to do that, provided a team can avoid getting shipped to Mount Union. There’s room for an unranked team to get a favorable first round draw and surprise a playoff newbie, like Alfred or Albright, at their place in the second round. So let’s go with the NJAC.
Pat’s take: The Liberty League. If Union wins, I figure there are plenty of opportunities for the Dutchmen to get a first-round game against a beatable opponent. I don’t see that for the HCAC, SCAC or some of the other leagues that don’t have any ranked teams.

Some conference races are becoming clearer, and three pairs of top 25 teams will meet on Saturday. With several one-loss teams still dotting the landscape and clusters of teams bunched at the top of conferences like the Centennial, the New Jersey and the Southern Collegiate, there is still plenty to watch and cheer for out there. Pat, Keith and I again break down some of the games that will play a role in the big picture — as well as noting a couple that aren’t as a big a factor as the early indicators suggested.

– Ryan Tipps

Game of the Week

Ryan’s take: No. 14 Capital at No. 10 Otterbein. The OAC’s No. 2 team is typically a lock to get selected for the playoffs — and this will be the likely decider for that honor. Expect the offenses to be at full throttle on Saturday, so far averaging 443 and 434 yards per game for Otterbein and Capital, respectively. But those same offenses will be testing the strongest facets of their opponent’s defense. As if playoff hopes, morale and pride weren’t enough to play for, would it help to be reminded that these Columbus-area rivals are but 20 minutes apart and have played each other 89 times during their histories? The series between them is nearly tied.

Keith’s take: No. 3 Wheaton at No. 13 North Central. Wow, I got third choice this week, and I feel like it’s a steal. I thought the Little Brass Bell game would be first off the board. Here’s why: It matches two top 15 teams who are CCIW title contenders and playoff possibilities. It’s a rivalry game. It’s been on the front page once already this week. And the Cardinals and Thunder have split the past four games, with each team winning once at home and once on the road.

Pat’s take: No. 6 Linfield at No. 17 Willamette. Can Linfield stomach losing three years in a row to the Bearcats? After giving up 429 yards of total offense to Pacific Lutheran, Willamette will need a better game on defense to beat the Wildcats. Linfield isn’t exactly La Verne or Lewis and Clark, two of the teams Willamette has put up big numbers on offense against.

Surprisingly close game

Ryan’s take: No. 24 Delaware Valley at Lycoming. The Warriors will be able to stay in this game if they find a way to spark even a little bit of offense. They match up well on defense against DelVal’s solid run game, but so far this season, opponents have been putting up more impressive numbers on the scoreboard than Lycoming has been able to generate.

Keith’s take: No. 11 Washington and Jefferson at Westminster and No. 23 Thomas More at Thiel. It’s important to remain in the moment. As a coach would say, the biggest game of the year is this week’s game. In the case of St. John’s (mentioned below) the challenge is not to look backward, but here’s it’s not looking ahead. The road game before an all-the-marbles conference clash is a danger spot. The Presidents and Saints each prevail, but not without some consternation.

Pat’s take: Wartburg at Dubuque. The two teams are headed in opposite directions right now, with Dubuque coming off a win against Simpson and Wartburg having lost to Coe last week. Slowing down Michael Zweifel (11 receptions, 137.6 yards per game) will be key for Wartburg, as will getting a better game from Nick Yordi (12 for 27, three interceptions, four sacks in last week’s loss).

Most likely Top 25 team to get upset

Ryan’s take: None. If we’re talking upsets by non-top 25 squads, then I think the teams on the poll run a clean sweep of their opponents.

Keith’s take: No. 5 St. John’s. I don’t know that the Johnnies will really lose at home to 3-3 St. Olaf, which has been competitive in losses to No. 16 St. Thomas, Bethel and Carleton. But after having vanquished its two toughest MIAC challenges in the Royals and Tommies, St. John’s must guard against overconfidence as they finish out.

Pat’s take: No. 22 Franklin. Mount St. Joseph has plenty of players who remember what it was like to be the top dog in the HCAC and be a playoff team. A victory on Saturday would put them in the driver’s seat for a return trip

They’ll be on your radar.

Ryan’s take: Wooster. The Scots might be 4-2, but they are still undefeated in conference play and face the big dogs down the stretch – No. 18 Wabash, Allegheny and No. 21 Wittenberg. Wooster might not be the same team people were predicting it to be at the start of the season, but a few good bounces and the ability to continue forcing turnovers could keep the Scots in the spotlight.

Keith’s take: Union. The Dutchmen’s route to 5-1 has not been without risk; They’ve won by 10, seven, four and by three twice. The season’s longest road trip, for a non-conference game that has no bearing on Union’s pursuit of a playoff spot, against a Salisbury team whose triple-option attack had it ahead 31-6 in the fourth quarter of a 38-20 win against St. John Fisher a few weeks back, will be an interesting test. I’m also keeping an eye on Alfred (at St. John Fisher), Mount St. Joseph (at No. 22 Franklin) and Plymouth State (at Curry).

Pat’s take: McMurry. In a game that McMurry would be favored in, the former Indians have a chance to get back to .500 at 4-4 this week against Texas Lutheran, heading into a home game next week against struggling crosstown rival Hardin-Simmons. Just something to keep in mind.

By the end of Sunday, how many conferences will have at least two teams in the Top 25?

Ryan’s take: Eight. There are seven conferences right now sporting at least two teams on the poll, and I think a good showing by UW-La Crosse against UW-Stevens Point could cause them to bump out No. 25 Centre if they don’t play well against Millsaps.

Keith’s take: Six. Let’s say North Central, Willamette and Wabash (at Wooster) each picks up its second loss and drops out, leaving four (the OAC, ASC, MIAC, PAC) and Franklin does too, but Mount St. Joseph doesn’t garner enough votes to move in. Redlands is unconvincing in a game it should win but Alfred is, and the Saxons leapfrog in. All those things are imaginable, but not necessarily likely, so I split the difference.

Pat’s take: Eight. I picture Redlands coming in after the Franklin loss cited above. I don’t know about UW-La Crosse. A win would help but would also be perhaps unexpected after the past two weeks.

Which lost-its-luster game would you just as soon avoid?

Ryan’s take: Carthage at Augustana. The bubble has burst on these two teams’ playoff hopes despite promising starts in the early part of the season. Instead of vying for first place in the CCIW, this game will be a better indicator of fourth or fifth place. Which isn’t to say that’s without respect in a conference this tough, but it will get overshadowed by the more impactful matchups on the slate.

Keith’s take: Trinity (Texas) at DePauw. Are we dissing teams now? It’s not that the shine is completely off the ol’ Tiger-Tiger matchup, because it isn’t. But it has competition for biggest SCAC game of the day, which was unanticipated earlier in the year. It’s hard to believe that if the results break right, with Centre beating Millsaps and DePauw winning, that the Colonels could have the conference virtually won in Week 8.

Pat’s take: Montclair State at New Jersey. New Jersey’s oldest small-college rivalry looked like it was going to be a significant NJAC showdown, clash of styles, etc. But with TCNJ losing two of its last three, including last week’s game at William Paterson, it’s now more a curiosity, an offense vs. defense battle.

Which result will be least like last year: Cortland State at William Paterson; King’s at Lebanon Valley; Plymouth State at Curry; or Muhlenberg at Franklin and Marshall?

Ryan’s take: Muhlenberg at Franklin and Marshall. Last year the Diplomats were struggling to scrape together a .500 season and suffered a low-scoring loss to the Mules. Fast forward to ’09, and the 5-1 Diplomats will see their playoff hunt stay alive after this weekend, which promises to showcase a punishing pass offense led by sophomore John Harrison, who averages 312 yards a game. The air attack will also give the Dips the ability to sidestep Muhlenberg’s still-tough run defense.

Keith’s take: King’s at Lebanon Valley. If you couldn’t remember why last year’s Cortland State (31 first-half points in 38-0 win) or Lebanon Valley (34-7 road win) results were significant, don’t feel bad, I didn’t either. As for this season, if we get the King’s team that beat Randolph-Macon and Widener and led Lycoming by 11 with six minutes left, and not the one that gave up 57 to Springfield, scored six against William Paterson or let the Warriors game slip, then that final should be more interesting than 34-7.

Pat’s take: Plymouth State at Curry. This isn’t to say that I think Plymouth State won’t win again – I actually do think it will. But this year it won’t be nearly as much of a surprise.

If the season was condensed down into a week, we would have just gotten over hump day (a term I think is particularly lame but does illustrate the point). The playoff picture is becoming clearer in some instances, and the first installment of the NCAA’s regional rankings is right around the corner. Welcome to the beginning of the regular season home stretch.

– Ryan Tipps

Game of the Week

Ryan’s take: Wittenberg at No. 10 Wabash. It looks like the Little Giants will be playing this one without starting quarterback Matt Hudson, but that won’t matter. I say that not because of Wabash’s capable talent waiting in the wings; I say it because this is just going to be Wittenberg’s year — no matter who would be under center for their opponent. Wittenberg boasts one of the stingiest defenses in the country, especially against the pass, and though Wabash is less one-dimensional than past years, the Tigers are hungry for a big feast. No matter how it plays out, both of these undefeated teams are primed for a postseason run.

Keith’s take: No. 3 Mary Hardin-Baylor at Mississippi College. Honestly, I think it’s the Tommie-Johnnie game, but in the interest of variety, I’ll look south. And with the Cru going on the road to face the high-scoring Choctaws, and giving freshman LiDarral Bailey another start at quarterback, it could live up to the billing. Then again, UMHB averages 44 points per game and has allowed just 49 all season.

Pat’s take: No. 15 St. Thomas at No. 6 St. John’s. The Wabash grad takes the Wabash game and the Catholic guy from Minnesota takes the Tommie-Johnnie game. But I have a game where the winner could be a No. 1 seed that makes it possible for the committee to move UW-Whitewater out of region in the playoffs. And I’ll have 10,000 people in the stands at my game. Listen on the D3football.com Game of the Week. But about the game, it’s St. Thomas with the No. 1 total offense in the MIAC … and tops with 259.2 rushing yards per game against St. John’s, which allows 97.2 yards per game.

Surprisingly close game

Ryan’s take: Wilkes at No. 23 Delaware Valley. Sure the Colonels are seeing their season unravel after two straight losses, but the fire is still there, and Delaware Valley isn’t yet the overwhelming team it has the potential to become.

Keith’s take: Concordia (Ill.) at Lakeland. In the Northern Athletics Conference, the 2-3 Muskies are at home against the 4-1 Cougars. Yet they’re likely the favorite, given their history of success, and that their three losses are against teams (Central, Mount St. Joseph and Carthage) that are a combined 15-1. Concordia is the upstart, and after a 56-7 loss to the Muskies two seasons ago, expect this year’s game to more resemble last season’s 35-32 Cougars victory.

Pat’s take: No. 2 UW-Whitewater at UW-Stout. Marcus Ball was clearly back at full strength last week at defensive end for Stout, recording three and a half tackles for loss and two fumbles against UW-Stevens Point. Whitewater running back Levell Coppage will be facing a defense that allows an average of 111 rushing yards per game, and that includes 224 by UW-River Falls, which needed 52 carries to do it.

Most likely Top 25 team to get upset

Ryan’s take: No. 4 Wheaton. It’s easy to think that the Thunder would roll through this weekend, en route to a CCIW title matchup against North Central next weekend. But Saturday’s opponent, Millikin, is 4-1 and coming off a win against previously unbeaten Illinois Wesleyan. The Big Blue are in a good position to play spoiler in the conference, though with just one loss, maybe “contender” is a better title for them.

Keith’s take: No. 16 Capital. Losses by No. 6 St. John’s, No. 10 Wabash or No. 11 Monmouth would technically be upsets, but not be completely surprising. But if the Crusaders, perhaps feeling good about themselves after pushing No. 1 Mount Union to the brink, get caught napping against a John Carroll team that lost at Wilmington two weeks ago, that’d be eye-opening. And yet in the upper-middle tier of the OAC, it’s always a possibility.

Pat’s take: No. 10 Wabash. I say this not knowing whether Matt Hudson will be able to play at quarterback, but with the expectation that he won’t. While Wittenberg’s strength of schedule is legendarily low (literally, with an OWP of .208) Wabash’s offensive edge will be lessened if its No. 1 quarterback can’t go. That won’t affect the Little Giant defense, which features a quick front seven, and while Wittenberg can put up points on Hiram, Earlham and Wash. U., that doesn’t necessarily translate.

They’ll be on your radar

Ryan’s take: Randolph-Macon. The Yellow Jackets are squaring off against an Emory and Henry team that’ll be looking to rebound from last week’s loss. E&H will be fired up to remain in the at-large playoff hunt, but more noticeably, R-MC has been carefully keeping itself in contention to win the ODAC after opening the season with two nonconference losses. The Yellow Jackets made it to Week 12 last year a little slyly through the back door, and a win here is imperative if they want to accomplish that again.

Keith’s take: Christopher Newport. It’s hard to know what to make of the perennial USAC top dogs. Two of their three wins came in multiple overtimes, perhaps demonstrating impressive resolve, but they also lost the opener 34-0 to No. 5 Wesley. North Carolina Wesleyan has an identical 2-0, 3-2 record, with a 55-23 loss to No. 18 Hampden-Sydney and, like CNU, a close win against Salisbury. The Captains are playing for control of the USAC, though Maryville might be trouble later. I’m curious as to what they’re made of.

Pat’s take: Coe. I just might be prepared to say they’ll shock the IIAC by defeating Wartburg on Saturday. That will make the Kohawks 5-1, 3-1 in the conference, and who knows? A win against Augustana helps the ol’ Pool C resume.

Which team that lost for the first time last weekend will have the most impressive rebound on Saturday?

Ryan’s take: St. Norbert. Carroll is in the unenviable position of having to line up against St. Norbert a week after the Green Knights were pasted by Monmouth in one of the key indicators toward the MWC’s automatic qualifier. This conference hasn’t made the grade before in the Pool C hunt, but an impressive run down the stretch — starting against Carroll — can give St. Norbert some recognition.

Keith’s take: UW-La Crosse. After a loss at UW-Platteville took the wind from under the Eagles’ wings, they’ve likely humbled themselves to take UW-River Falls very seriously. Though 0-2 in the WIAC, the Falcons lost at Stout in overtime and by two at Oshkosh. La Crosse’s rebound won’t be impressive in margin of victory, but as an accomplishment.

Pat’s take: Redlands. A home game against Whittier is a good cure for what ails you, even if the Poets have already won twice as many games as last season and are coming off a strong win against Chapman. Now, Capital, on the other hand, needs to guard against a post-Mount Union letdown. Just thought I’d throw that in.

Which of the nation’s statistical Top 10 defenses will be put to the test on Saturday?

Ryan’s take: No. 3 Mary Hardin-Baylor. Mississippi College has been averaging 45 points a game already this year in one of the nation’s toughest conferences. Quarterback Adam Shaffer has a plethora of receiver options, which will push the speed and depth of UMHB’s secondary. If the Crusaders can keep the points down, there will be little denying how talented this team is.

Keith’s take: No. 11 Monmouth. It’s easy to assume the Scots passed their toughest MWC test by beating perennial power St. Norbert last Saturday, but it might be 5-1 Ripon that pushes them most. With the nation’s 14th-best rushing offense, rolling up 263 yards per game on the ground, the Red Hawks will put Monmouth’s 17th-ranked rushing defense (73 yards per game) to the test.

Pat’s take: No. 14 North Central. The Cardinals rolled up some gaudy defensive numbers against Benedictine, Olivet, Millikin and North Park. I think it’s fair to suggest that Carthage is a different animal. Consider the following: North Central gave up 402 yards of total offense to Ohio Northern in Week 1. It has given up 187.5 yards per game on average to the other four.

With a win this weekend, which unbeaten team most deserves a spot in the Top 25?

Ryan’s take: Hampden-Sydney. Sorry to trot out another ODAC team in Triple Take, but the Tigers started getting votes from me this past week. As balanced of a team as they are this year, a place in the Top 25 should emerge soon.

Keith’s take: Albright. You mean of the teams that aren’t ranked already? I’ve voted for Alfred and Hampden-Sydney for a couple weeks now, and Wittenberg would definitely attract votes with a win over Wabash. But few have made mention of the Lions, whose resume is similar to several of the unbeaten ranked teams that have yet to face their toughest opponents. Scoring 34 a game and holding three opponents to single digits is definitely worth considering.

Pat’s take: Alfred. The Saxons don’t even need a win this weekend to merit their spot. (That’s good, because they have a bye.) They’re far more qualified for a Top 25 slot than Ithaca was entering last week, for example.

Are you sold yet?

That was the focus of this week’s Around the Nation Podcast, and as we draw near to the middle of the season, it’s expected that we’ll see more undefeated teams start to fall. Some conferences are sporting multiple teams without losses, such as the CCIW (five) and the NCAC, MAC and SCIAC among the surprises (three unbeatens each).

Others out there will be looking to shrug off tough non-conference records and find their way to their automatic qualifiers. The NCAA’s first regional rankings will be here before we know it, and a combination of challenging schedules and on-field success is the gateway to postseason Pool C bids and seeding.

– Ryan Tipps

Game of the Week

Ryan’s take: No. 20 Ithaca at Hartwick. No team in the Empire 8 has a losing record this season, and with two surprise undefeated teams looming at the top of the leader board, conference games are becoming more and more important. The Bombers and Hawks represent the two best air attacks in the conference (though not by too wide of a margin), but Hartwick has been exceptional at getting pressure on quarterbacks and making them scramble. Ithaca will need a win here to stay in Pool A contention after an early season blemish, and continuing to force turnovers will be one way to make that happen.

Keith’s take: Bethel at No. 6 St. John’s. The Royals are a last-gasp touchdown vs. No 4 Wheaton away from making this a battle of 4-0 teams. But each is still 2-0 in MIAC play, meaning there’s plenty to play for in terms of jockeying for position before the playoff stretch. The Johnnies come in with the lofty ranking, but Bethel comes in knowing it’s won three in a row against St. John’s, including during a 4-5 down year last season.

Pat’s take: Bridgewater at Hampden-Sydney. This game has been a war for about the past seven years and I’m not expecting anything different this time around. Hampden-Sydney has the home-field advantage and looks better on paper and has won two in a row … but despite that I expect it to be anything but routine.

Surprisingly close game

Ryan’s take: Shenandoah at Christopher Newport. I’d like the Hornets even more if they were playing at home, but with the Captains’ offense still struggling to find consistency on the field one month into the season, a lot of this will depend on which CNU team shows up. Shenandoah will need to make more happen in its passing game to do well, but for both squads, it will come down to which defense steps up.

Keith’s take: Birmingham-Southern at Trinity (Texas). The Panthers have two of their five Division III wins in history this season, including last week’s 51-17 romp against Rhodes. The Tigers have looked uneven in a 3-1 start entirely on the road. I still think Trinity wins its home opener, but B-SC seems to be closing the gap.

Pat’s take: St. Olaf at Carleton. St. Olaf looks like it will have the upper hand significantly on paper, but Carleton’s desire to keep the Goat and the things that go with it in Northfield, Minn., will keep them in the game longer than expected. That and the fact that St. Olaf managed just nine yards rushing last week without electrifying sophomore tailback Leon Clark.

Most likely Top 25 team to get upset.

Ryan’s take: No. 18 Willamette. A win by Whitworth wouldn’t be much of an upset after already proving able to hang close against teams like Hardin-Simmons (in its Week 1 prime) and Redlands. If Whitworth can play 60 minutes of football, as opposed to the 30 on/30 off that has emerged at other points this year, then they will have a shot at winning and gain some momentum heading into the Linfield game.

Keith’s take: No. 17 UW-La Crosse. Honestly, there aren’t many top 25 teams I think are in trouble this week, but UW-Oshkosh is two points from being unbeaten, and the ride on the Eagles’ bandwagon is herky-jerky. Plus, it’s the WIAC.

Pat’s take: No. 6 St. John’s. Not that anyone has really had St. John’s number, but Saturday’s opponent, Bethel has won the past three meetings, including 14-9 last season at home. They’re far apart on the national radar, though perhaps not deservedly, as Bethel is 3-1, with its only loss at home to Wheaton (Ill.) on a touchdown on the final play of the game. How much distance there is between Wheaton and UW-Eau Claire (which had a shot to tie St. John’s on the road on the final play of regulation) is debatable.

They’ll be on your radar

Ryan’s take: Hope. The Dutchmen are 0-4 against teams that are a combined 11-1, including an overtime loss against a WIAC team and last week’s valiant stand against No. 4 Wheaton. If not too battered and beaten, I want to see how this tough schedule benefits them once they play good teams closer to home, as in this week against Trine. Hope has a chance to make its effort pay off en route to the MIAA’s automatic qualifier.

Keith’s take: DePauw. There are so many games to keep an eye on this week, from Johns Hopkins-Muhlenberg to Williams-Trinity to Mississippi College-Louisiana College. But Millsaps-DePauw is most intriguing because I still don’t quite know what to make of the Tigers. Was their loss to Centre because the Colonels are that good? Was the three points scored last week because of the sloppy weather? Is DePauw any good if quarterback Spud Dick’s concussions return?

Pat’s take: RPI. Though the Engineers are more than a little bit overexposed in the coaches’ poll, they would be worthy of at least getting some votes in the Top 25 with a win at home on Saturday against Rochester.

Which of the nation’s surprise undefeated teams has the most interesting matchup on Saturday?

Ryan’s take: Hampden-Sydney (facing Bridgewater). I realize that some people may not be surprised that the Tigers are 4-0, but I’ll ‘fess up to believing that there was a good chance they’d start the season 0-2, namely after the loss to graduation of their leading rusher and receiver. I certainly wasn’t thinking they’d have already put up 183 points this year. But with the ODAC overall showing less dominance than in years past, H-SC’s game against 3-1 Bridgewater becomes all the more important as the top teams vie to separate themselves. The Eagles themselves have put up 131 points against opponents. Both teams have relatively balanced defenses to make this a battle.

Keith’s take: Lebanon Valley (facing Delaware Valley). The Flying Dutchmen will likely move into the top 25 for the first time in 10-plus seasons of D3football.com if they can keep their hot start going at home against the Aggies this week. And if not now, a visit to Wilkes (currently 3-0, but facing 3-0 Albright) follows.

Pat’s take: The College of New Jersey (facing Kean). Kean is 2-1 against a much tougher schedule, while unbeaten TCNJ hasn’t shown it can stop anyone on defense. TCNJ will be playing its first road game. What will the 57.3 points per game TCNJ scored against Buffalo State, FDU-Florham and Morrisville State translate to at Kean?

Around the Nation this week talked about turnarounds, and three ’08 playoff teams have just one win so far this season. Which still has the best shot at a turnaround?

Ryan’s take: LaGrange, with a maybe. Hobart and Lycoming clearly have tough stretches ahead of them, and I don’t know that there’s any reason to think there will be a grand turnaround from either of them. LaGrange, however, has been bounced around by Wesley and Maryville, yet the Panthers do have a couple of winnable games left to play.

Keith’s take: Lycoming. This is AQ 101. Hobart’s 1-2 start includes a Liberty League loss at Susquehanna, while LaGrange, in Pool B, isn’t going back to the playoffs with three losses. But Lycoming’s 1-2 start doesn’t involve any MAC games, so it still determines its own playoff fate, and there’s no better turnaround (or reason to stay motivated) than to return to the postseason.

Pat’s take: Hobart. The Statesmen have played a couple of pretty decent opponents to take those two early losses. Turn all the way back around into a playoff spot? Probably not. But maybe 6-3 is possible. They may find themselves kicking themselves for not playing Alfred on their mutual open date, because it could be as close to a tenth game as Hobart gets this season.

What will be the final score of the somewhat deflated matchup between Mary Hardin-Baylor and Hardin-Simmons?

Ryan’s take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 35, Hardin-Simmons 10. Even if this game were to be played later in the season, I don’t know that I’d pick a much different outcome.

Keith’s take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 42, Hardin-Simmons 28. I hate to even take a crack at this one. The Cowboys lost, 20-18, in the regular season last year and 38-35 in the playoffs, and 47-14 the regular season before. And since Hardin-Simmons has injury, and likely confidence, issues after its 1-3 start, it’s difficult to determine which band of Cowboys will take the field.

Pat’s take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 48, Hardin-Simmons 24. I expect HSU to get a few points on the board, but not many. Regardless, it’s likely to be more competitive than the game I’ll be at at that time: Baldwin-Wallace at Mount Union.

Last year, few may have foreseen that Randolph-Macon’s win over undefeated Catholic would help jump start a turnaround and an eventual trip to the playoffs for the Yellow Jackets, which began the ’08 season 1-2. With the Yellow Jackets in the same position, and Catholic at 0-3 so far, both teams are looking for a little extra spark this year. Will it be Pat’s alma mater (CUA) or Keith’s (R-MC) that’ll earn the bragging rights come Saturday? See what we think below, plus our games of the week and possible upsets.

– Ryan Tipps

Game of the Week

Ryan’s take: No. 9 Ohio Northern at No. 18 Otterbein. No question about the magnitude of this one. I think the Polar Bears come away with a convincing win.

Keith’s take: Wilkes at Christopher Newport. It doesn’t quite have the cache of a normal game of the week since neither team is ranked, but it’s a non-conference matchup of potential conference champions, and it’s not an easy call as to who’ll win.

Pat’s take: Trinity (Texas) at Millsaps. I envision a hard-fought game that comes down to a desperation play on the last snap of the game, one that makes highlight reels for years. What, that story line has already been done? Crap.

Surprisingly close game

Ryan’s take: Frostburg State at Widener. Last year’s matchup wasn’t out of reach for the Bobcats, and freshman signal-caller Phoenix Butler-Poole has almost 700 yards passing despite the team’s 0-3 record. Defense will be a clear and present concern if the underdogs expect to be able to stand up to a Pride team that has opened with a tough schedule that would make many other teams blush.

Keith’s take: No. 20 Ithaca at Utica. After the Pride’s respectable showing at RPI (a 17-14 loss), I’ll be eager to see what happens when they play a good team on their home turf. Was last Saturday a fluke or a warning shot?

Pat’s take: Kean at No. 7 Cortland State. Although, this will be an interesting matchup since both may well be without their best offensive player. Kean lost Jason Gwaltney in the second quarter of its season opener against Delaware Valley and he hasn’t played since. Cortland State quarterback Dan Pitcher tore his Achilles’ tendon last week against Rowan and is done for the year.

Most likely Top 25 team to get upset

Ryan’s take: No. 22 Trine. This may be the easy pick. The Thunder’s win against Manchester was too close for comfort, and tackling Franklin on the road will be harder than anything Trine has seen this season. Plus, Trine doesn’t quite have the firepower to exploit Franklin’s defensive shortcomings.

Keith’s take: No. 4 Wheaton. It’s dangerous to go this far out on the limb, reaching all the way up the top 25 when there are so many lower-ranked teams to choose from. But Hope, 0-3 after a loss to Illinois Wesleyan by a field goal, and both Carthage and UW-Eau Claire by a touchdown, the latter by a 52-45 score in two overtimes … don’t the Flying Dutchmen eventually have to catch a giant sleeping and steal an upset?

Pat’s take: No. 15 Central. Although the recent years’ trend for the Dutch would mean they’re more likely to pull out a last-minute win by the skin of their teeth, like they did earlier this month against UW-Stevens Point and multiple times during their recent run of Iowa Conference titles. Coe is 3-0, with a signature win in its opener, 9-7 against Augustana. The Kohawks didn’t look impressive on the scoreboard against Luther last week, winning 19-6, but gave up its only touchdown after consecutive fair-catch interference penalties wrapped around a short punt gave Luther the ball at the Coe 28.

They’ll be on your radar

Ryan’s take: Muhlenberg. I’m sort of cheating with this pick because I will be heading up to Pennsylvania to see the Mules play this weekend. Nevertheless, the team — which held close to Wilkes in Week 1 and later went on to beat Union — has had a surprisingly strong start despite losing its star passer and rusher to graduation. The Mules’ Saturday opponent, Gettysburg, is also much better than its 0-3 record would suggest.

Keith’s take: Millsaps. Not sure what to make of the Majors’ tight games against Mississippi and Austin. Hosting Trinity should tell us if they’re going to contend for a playoff spot. I’d like to get the same insight from Concordia-Moorhead at Bethel and ONU at Otterbein, while we’re at it.

Pat’s take: Wittenberg. Perhaps the Tigers should be on the radar already, after crushing Olivet and Wash. U. by a combined total of 83-6. But it’s hard to tell how much of that is Wittenberg and how much is Olivet (which also lost to Concordia-Chicago) and Wash. U. (which also lost to Greenville). Ohio Wesleyan is winless but has at least been competitive against reasonable teams.

As the NESCAC teams debut, what will be the most noteworthy thing to come out of the conference this weekend?

Ryan’s take: Donald McKillop’s performance. As NESCAC teams go, McKillop’s Middlebury has a favorable opening draw against Bowdoin in which to showcase his return. After an ’07 season in which the quarterback passed for almost 1,400 yards, he followed that up in ’08 with 1,940 yards in just six games amid an injury. Expect him to post big numbers again this year right out of the gate.

Keith’s take: The performance of the road teams. You have to go back to Bowdoin’s 6-2 year in 2005 to find a team other than Trinity, Williams, Amherst, Middlebury or Tufts that’s finished above .500 in the NESCAC. Those five are on the road Saturday against Bates, Colby, Hamilton, Bowdoin and Wesleyan, respectively. Each road team travels out of state, making one of its longest trips of the season. Any home team that emerges victorious on Saturday could put us on the trail of the conference’s surprise this season.

Pat’s take: Not sure, but at least we can watch. The games are all early in the day and three of them are on live video, so what we don’t know now we have the ability to find out pretty soon.

Which conference clash mentioned in the ATN Podcast will have the biggest “wow” factor: Coe at Central; Ohio Northern at Otterbein; or Hardin-Simmons at Mississippi College?

Ryan’s take: Coe at No. 15 Central. Both teams are ones that I’ve kept a strong interest in. Both are good, and both have a shot at making the postseason via Pool A and C bids. Coe has had close but quality wins so far, while Central has put last year behind it and already knocked off a high-ranked UW-Stevens Point team. The winner will be in the Iowa driver’s seat.

Keith’s take: Hardin-Simmons at Mississippi College. The Cowboys’ Justin Feaster tried to play through his shoulder sprain for part of last week’s loss to Louisiana College. If he can somehow gut it out again this week, he’d be part of a clash of two of the South Region’s best quarterbacks. The Choctaws’ Adam Shaffer has passed for 753 yards and nine touchdowns in three games.

Pat’s take: No. 9 Ohio Northern at No. 18 Otterbein. The wow factor will be, I think, Ohio Northern’s dominance. Otterbein starting quarterback Jack Rafferty injured a finger in last week’s win against Muskingum and sophomore Austin Schlosser is slated to get the call.

Who wins the Guru Bowl between Pat’s alma mater (Catholic) and Keith’s alma mater (Randolph-Macon)?

Ryan’s take: Randolph-Macon. I picked R-MC last year against the odds, and, with them having found a solid solution to the run game, I think they’re the smart choice this year as well.

Keith’s take: Randolph-Macon. I’m not sure I’m thrilled about the whole “Guru Bowl” concept – and to be clear, no one but Triple Take really calls it that. The Jackets and Cardinals have a nice rivalry, but does it really deserve this much attention? Either way, my alma mater is going to win. Because I said so.

Pat’s take: Randolph-Macon. I’m not afraid to admit when my alma mater is not so good. I’m never blindly loyal. I think the Cardinals will figure it out soon but completing less than 50 percent of their passes and 6 for 34 on third down isn’t going to get the job done.

As we reach Week 3, many teams are staring down 2-0 or 0-2 starts and are reaching a critical proving ground about whether their efforts so far are a fluke or have follow-through. Heads can swell with early success, while hearts can sink with shortfalls. The question is how likely could the tide turn for those teams.

Last week we saw three Top 25 squads get bumped off by lower-ranked opponents, and this week all but two teams in the poll will be lining up. With that, Pat, Keith and I give your our thoughts and predictions for Saturday.

– Ryan Tipps

Game of the Week.
Ryan’s take: No. 5 Wesley at Delaware Valley.I remember where I was in 2008 when I read the front page headline “Wesley falls in belated opener.” A team that was getting looks as a possible No. 1 in the country lost its first game of the season after letting a halftime lead slip away, and Del Val took command of the game seconds before the final clock ran out. I remind you of this because I’m sure the Wesley veterans have been reminded of it all week, and with both teams having started their seasons 2-0, there’s that much more to be excited about.
Keith’s take: Rowan at No. 9 Cortland State. I’d be willing to bet there’s not as much difference between the Profs and Red Dragons as the rankings suggest. As openers go, Rowan’s 29-7 win at Lycoming was more impressive than Cortland’s 26-17 home victory against Morrisville State. But what makes this game, and others like it (Lousiana College at No. 15 Hardin-Simmons, No. 6 St. John’s at No. 23 Concordia-Moorhead) so important is that in conferences where three or more teams could contend, it almost functions as an early elimination game. It’s not 100 percent do-or-die, but with Kean, Montclair State and the rest of the NJAC looming, neither team can afford to drop a conference game so early.
Pat’s take: No. 14 Linfield at No. 21 Occidental. It’s the last game of the day, and I hope it’s worth the wait, not to mention the trip. I have some trepidation about Occidental after what seems like a lackluster performance in its opener at Menlo. But to be fair, I could think the same about Linfield, wondering how much of its win against Hardin-Simmons was Linfield, how much was the home field, and how much was HSU losing its All-American candidate quarterback. So I’ll be there in person, and you guys will be watching the live video stream, right?

Surprisingly close game.
Ryan’s take: Thiel at No. 8 Washington and Jefferson. Count me among those who aren’t yet convinced that this year’s Presidents deserve to be in the Top 10 — or even the Top 20. Tempered wins in the first two weeks against teams that are a combined 0-3 make me think that the Tomcats can offer W&J something new: a challenge.
Pat’s take: No. 1 Mount Union at No. 7 Ohio Northern. Surprisingly closer than five touchdowns, right? Who knows – if Ohio Northern can pick off Aaron Fanthorpe three times then what can it do with a quarterback making his second career start, or a freshman backup in game No. 2. The question will be whether that’s enough to get ONU on the board in sufficient quantities against a strong Purple Raider defense.

Most likely Top 25 team to get upset.
Ryan’s take: No. 18 St. Thomas. With Ohio Northern having a week to rest after upsetting North Central in Week 1, it would would be nice to have the guts to pull the trigger on their game against Mount Union, but I think a repeat of ’05 isn’t going to happen. But over in the MIAC, the Tommies and Oles are at the top of their conference in yards per game, and amid both teams’ ground-based attacks, the Oles are proving stouter against the run (opponents have averaged minus-26.5 yards rushing per game).
Keith’s take: No. 6 St. John’s. Two schools of thought on the Johnnies’ start: They beat two teams from the nation’s most powerful conference. Or, they’re lucky they aren’t 0-2. If the Cobbers’ win over Willamette means as much as pollsters seem to think, the Johnnies could be trouble this week, especially in Moorhead, which is the least-friendly road trip in the MIAC.
Pat’s take: No. 9 Cortland State. If the NJAC coaches poll is right — and when is a preseason coaches poll ever wrong? — then this isn’t an upset at all. But Rowan had this game right there for the taking last year and couldn’t pull it off. An especially tough defensive performance for the Profs puts them in good stead heading to New York, but they need to keep the penalties in check.

They’ll be on your radar.
Ryan’s take: No. 7 Ohio Northern. As hinted at above, I’m interested to see how this plays out. It’s well documented that Mount Union can turn highly ranked, well-oiled teams into a pile of rubble. But if — just what if — ONU keeps this one close …?
Keith’s take: No. 20 DePauw. I’m interested in how Ohio Northern fares as well, but we know something about the Polar Bears, from the North Central win. DePauw, on the other hand, is quite a mystery for a team favored to win its conference. That coach Robby Long took over not long before the season began added to that intrigue. Senior quarterback Spud Dick tossed five touchdown passes and led the offense to 665 yards in the opener, a 55-7 win over Anderson. But Centre is first in a line of tough teams that will visit Blackstock Stadium this season. Millsaps, Trinity, Austin and Wabash follow.
Pat’s take: Redlands. The poll doesn’t rank them this way, but I believe Redlands is the best team in the SCIAC and they’ll have a shot to put that to use against Whitworth. And I’ll tell you – we’re looking for radar teams. Not just on the radar but Top 25. Positions are open.

Which surprise 2-0 team is least likely to go 3-0?
Ryan’s take: Waynesburg. The Yellow Jackets opened the year against Wooster with a gutsy performance and piled on lots of points against a team that was touting the promise of its defense. Then Waynesburg turned around and made short work of Hanover. However, Thomas More is now waiting in the wings, and I’ll be impressed if anyone in the PAC is able to stop the Saints this year.
Keith’s take: Utica. After 62-7 and 62-10 wins over Becker and Castleton State, the Pioneers are likely riding high. But confidence won’t do the trick in a visit to RPI, which looked like its usual strong self in a 28-0 shutout of Endicott.
Pat’s take: Beloit. (at Monmouth). I was going to go with Austin, but opening against Southwest Assemblies of God and McMurry doesn’t qualify as surprisingly 2-0. Or I could take St. Olaf, since that’s how little I agree with Ryan’s upset pick. I expect St. Thomas to run for 250 yards more than St. Olaf has allowed on average.

Who needs to notch its first win more: Wooster, Baldwin-Wallace or Christopher Newport?
Ryan’s take: Wooster. Though the Scots’ path was surprisingly tainted already this year, their season feels more wide open than the other two, as if (to use the cliche) they control their destiny more. A big win could mean a big morale boost. The other two feel different than that. For B-W, every week in the OAC is going to be a massive, unpredictable challenge; and CNU has as good a chance as any in the USAC to rebound from nonconference play with a postseason bid via the automatic qualifier.
Keith’s take: Christopher Newport. The logic is that a nonconference loss wouldn’t hurt the Captains’ playoff chances much since they often handle business in the USAC. But if they don’t beat Salisbury this week, Wilkes looms, and there’s a very real chance they could limp into the conference schedule at 0-3. Besides, the Sea Gulls are coming off a loss to USAC rival N.C. Wesleyan, so assuming a CNU sweep of the conference might not be wise.
Pat’s take: Baldwin-Wallace. Unlike the other two, B-W could conceivably get an at-large bid at 8-2 because the second loss, presumably to Mount Union, tends to get forgiven by the playoff selection committee.

As introduced in this week’s Around the Nation, which NEFC game between Bogan and Boyd will be the most interesting?
Ryan’s take: Framingham State at MIT. Since learning last year that one of the country’s best rushers, MIT’s DeRon Brown, comes from my neck of the woods, I’ve been keeping an eye on him. This year, I’m expecting to see even bigger things. He and his team will be tested as the Rams stand up well against the run, and the interest lies in how well the Engineers cope with that obstacle.
Keith’s take: Coast Guard at Plymouth State. Both have already experienced heartbreaking defeat – the Bears lost the Secretaries Cup to rival Merchant Marine in the second overtime, while the Panthers never trailed against Division II St. Anselm until the fifth overtime. Both have been among the NEFC’s best too. Coast Guard backslid to three wins last year after consecutive eight-win seasons, while the Panthers are 19-3 the past two seasons. With high hopes and losses already on the ledger, this clash should be high stakes.
Pat’s take: Massachusetts Maritime at Endicott. And even if it’s not the most interesting team story line, after the performance Mass Maritime running back Nathan Sherr has put up in the first two weeks (15-162 with a touchdown against SUNY-Maritime and 26-325-3 against MIT), it provides an individual worth watching. By the way, for those keeping track, Sherr outrushed Brown by 177 yards last week.

Squaring off against teammates during camp is one thing, but one of the most interesting things to watch is a team’s improvement from Week 1 to Week 2, after it gets that first real game under its belt. Do these squads have an advantage over teams that are debuting this week? Many would argue so, and there’s certainly some evidence of it in past seasons.

But, of course, there’s more to it than that. Below, check out who Pat, Keith and I are keeping an eye on this week:

Game of the Week
Ryan’s take: No. 4 Hardin-Simmons at Linfield. For the Cowboys, the wear and tear of a long road trip could be balanced by the one game they already have in the bank, compared with their debuting opponent. Last week, HSU proved its determination and what kind of team it has the potential to be once all elements on offense, defense and special teams come together. I never take a Northwest Conference team for granted, but with as much as HSU has going for it, I hope this is a more balanced pick than my choice for last Saturday’s Game of the Week.
Keith’s take: No. 7 UW-Stevens Point at Central. The bigger names will be in Oregon, and a nod to the Cowboys and Wildcats for keeping their high-profile series going. The Pointers’ visit to Pella, Iowa however might tell us more about where this season is headed. UW-SP got a early-season test against a quality Division III opponent, something that seems difficult for WIAC schools to do. If they show well, they could be a team that defeats Whitewater again. Same with Central, national observers want to see if this is a team that will regain its place among IIAC contenders (likely) and cause trouble in the West Region playoff picture.
Pat’s take: No. 18 Montclair State at Wilkes. This is especially for those who like defense. It’s the third year in a row the teams have played and nobody has scored more than 14 points in either of the two previous meetings. Wilkes set the tone with a 14-12 win against Muhlenberg in Week 1 and is trying to shake off back-to-back 4-6 seasons after going 11-1 in 2006.

Surprisingly close game
Ryan’s take: No. 8 Ithaca at Union. The Bombers can’t let their 45-0 drubbing on St. Lawrence get to their heads. In almost every category, Union will be an improvement over Ithaca’s Week 1 matchup — and if Matt Scalice & Co. can’t put the brakes on Hobart rusher Chris Coney, points will start racking up fast.
Keith’s take: Cal Lutheran at Willamette. Just because they’re fuming from last week’s upset, don’t think the Bearcats win easy. The Kingsmen have to travel from Malibu up the coast to Oregon, but they’re bringing 18 starters on the trip, including quarterback Jericho Toilolo. A seven-win team last season, Cal Lutheran will throw a scare into Willamette.
Pat’s take: Buffalo State at St. John Fisher. If it were a game of fan morale, I would suspect Buffalo State wins in a blowout. But Fisher is the better team on paper and is playing at home. I just don’t think they are going to handle Buff State the way they should. Fisher still wins but … it’s surprisingly close.

Most likely Top 25 team to get upset
Ryan’s take: No. 17 Hobart. Here’s another team that will get dogged by the fact that it is debuting against a tough opponent that already has a game — and a win — under its belt. The Statesmen’s defense will have to play one of its best games of the season against the 1-2-3 punch of Mitchell, O’Connor and Lord, which will feel more like a 7-8-9 punch by the time the day is over.
Keith’s take: No. 11 St. John’s. It’s never wise to go against the Johnnies, but if they needed 14 points in the final 8:38 to get past UW-River Falls in Week 1, we’ve got to assume UW-Eau Claire – four spots higher in the WIAC preseason poll and three more wins last season – will be more trouble. Not that football usually goes as you’d expect. The Blugolds took a 14-0 lead nine minutes into their opener against NAIA Bethel (Tenn.) last week and went on to win, so the Johnnies don’t even have the ‘played one more game’ advantage.
Pat’s take: None. I think Franklin will struggle, but losing to Butler wouldn’t really be an upset in my mind. Well, maybe Montclair State. Or Wheaton. Or St. John’s. But I don’t have that lock feeling about any of them the way I did last week.

They’ll be on your radar
Ryan’s take: Grove City. The Wolverines went toe-to-toe with possibly the Centennial’s best team last week, even leading by a hair early in the fourth quarter. With Carnegie Mellon on tap for Saturday, Grove City has another chance to showcase its massive multi-pronged offense — only this time for a win.
Keith’s take: Curry. Mostly because I’ll be there. But also because the NEFC (whose schedule also features Endicott playing RPI, Coast Guard taking on rival Merchant Marine and Fitchburg State introducing Anna Maria to the world of established Division III programs) is gaining in stature and has a MAC contender (Widener) coming to Milton. Play tough opponents and we will come.
Pat’s take: Beloit. The Buccaneers won’t end up being contenders in the Midwest Conference, to be sure, not ahead of Monmouth and St. Norbert, but Beloit is keyed on this week’s game against Carroll. Beloit lost 10-0 on the road last year, a game which kept the program from its first winning season since 2002. But Beloit at 2-0 for the first time this century? Could happen.

Team playing its opener you’re most curious about
Ryan’s take: No. 16 Wabash. Yeah, I’m playing the homer card, but for good reason: The Little Giants had some key holes to fill this year on the defensive line and will be going up a Denison team that ran for 275 yards in its opener. Not to mention that as Wabash itself tries to establish a ground game, it will face two solid linebackers in Bill Aukerman and Taylor Dlouhy — with the Little Giants possibly being forced into a more one-dimensional offense with the pass.
Keith’s take: No. 5 Wheaton. Eager to see how the Thunder perform against Bethel for a few reasons. First, a top-half CCIW team vs. top-half MIAC team is usually going to be a good game. Second, we hear change is afoot at Wheaton, although we’re sworn to secrecy until Saturday afternoon. Third, after Ohio Northern upset conference rival North Central – not to mention the apple cart – the Thunder is playing for CCIW pride. A win probably makes Wheaton the highest-ranked conference team until at least the Augustana game Oct. 10.
Pat’s take: No. 7 UW-Stevens Point. Did the Pointers save all their emotion for the UW-Whitewater game last year and forget to play the rest of the season? They needed overtime at home to beat Oshkosh, beat Eau Claire by one and then lost at home to Wartburg. They do have 17 starters back, including 10 on offense, but they could stand for that offense to be a little more effective, especially on the ground.

The MAC and MIAC are undefeated; which of these two conferences comes closest to maintaining that torch in Week 2?
Ryan’s take: The MAC. There isn’t a game on this week’s schedule that isn’t winnable, but the tough slate (including Curry, Montclair State, Alfred, Rowan) should be worth a lot of recognition and prove that the conference is again ready to be mentioned among the nation’s big boys. A 6-2 outing is more likely, but an 8-0 result isn’t out of the question.
Keith’s take: The MIAC. I realize this goes against the St. John’s pick above, but I also realize how Ryan carefully worded the question. “Comes closest” … I honestly see the MAC struggling with a slate of Montclair State, Rowan, Curry, Alfred, Kean, Springfield, Western Connecticut and Ursinus more than the MIAC against its nine opponents.
Pat’s take: The MAC. The MIAC has at least four very losable games and probably only three locks. If Gustavus Adolphus, St. John’s, Bethel and Augsburg all win, I’d be surprised.

Which potential shootout will tally the most points from its two teams combined?
Ryan’s take: Gettysburg at Hampden-Sydney. In Week 1, these two teams combined for 97 points and 1,199 yards. And the teams they earned those stats again hardly qualify as pushovers. The Tigers should emerge from this OK Corral the victors, but it won’t be easy.
Keith’s take: Carthage at Hope. If you’re looking for fireworks, one could do worse than a game that ended 70-46 last season. The Red Men have quarterback Evan Jones back under center, while the Flying Dutchmen have a new QB, but eight other offensive starters back and a game under their belts.
Pat’s take: St. Scholastica at Maranatha Baptist. What? Ryan took the obvious answer already. But a young program against a undermanned but spirited program could be quite entertaining.

Though Week 1 features only one game between Top 25 teams, polling is hardly the only way to pick which games could be among the most significant and interesting.

From battles halfway across the country to cross-town rivalries, every team opening this weekend enters the season with the highest expectations. For some, such as Mount Union, those expectations are nothing short of a national championship. For others, such as Wittenberg, they may include trying to make it though the season injury-free. And yet others, such as Millsaps, might be anxious to see how they perform after graduating a superstar athlete.

Each week, Friday’s Triple Take — which will feature a roundtable of panelists consisting of D3football.com Editor and Publisher Pat Coleman, Managing Editor and National Columnist Keith McMillan, and Senior Editor and Mid-Atlantic Columnist Ryan Tipps — will try to predict some what’s to come on Saturday, while rooting out unique games and teams to keep an eye on, among other things.

The bar is at different levels for different teams; success can be found in many forms. Not every team this year will fall in line with their expectations, but the fun part is watching them try.

To comment on the Daily Dose, you’ll need to register. There’s a link for that on the bottom of the right-hand rail of this page.

– Ryan Tipps

Game of the Week
Ryan’s take: No. 20 Christopher Newport at No. 9 Wesley. The threat of tropical weather ended last year’s meeting before it ever got started. The anticipation, though, remains. Wesley graduated many of its stars from the past couple of years, including three 2008 starting linebackers. What’s that mean for CNU? Well, the window may be open just enough to squeeze in an upset, especially with a bigger, stronger Tunde Ogun at running back.
Keith’s take: Whitworth at No. 5 Hardin-Simmons. I don’t really like to suggest a Week 1 game is must-win or has playoff implications, but with the visiting Pirates following the opener with games against Redlands (7-2 in ’08), No. 8 Willamette (11-1) and Linfield (6-3) among its first six, and with the Cowboys going to Linfield next, then playing Louisiana College (7-3), Mississippi College (5-5 with star QB injured) and No. 3 UMHB (12-2), the winner here banks a key victory. The loser faces an uphill climb.
Pat’s take: Millsaps at Mississippi College. I’m looking forward to a good chapter in the Backyard Brawl history books, with Mississippi College having the upper hand in terms of experience this time around.

Surprisingly close game
Ryan’s take: Thomas More at John Carroll. The 41-14 drubbing enjoyed by the Blue Streaks last year likely won’t be repeated. And it’s not because JCU is too much worse for wear. Instead, it’s because the Saints have a lot of returners who got a sampling of the postseason in 2008 and have a renewed drive to get back there in ’09.
Keith’s take: Morrisville State at Hartwick. The Mustangs were 1-9 last season and the Hawks were 7-3, but Hartwick is bound to look different without quarterback Jason Boltus and wide receiver Jack Phelan powering the nation’s second-most-prolific offense. Morrisville State returns seven starters from a defense that can only be better after giving up 38.2 points per game this season. The Hawks might sputter a little as new quarterback Brian Radley gets his feet wet.
Pat’s take: No. 8 Willamette at Concordia-Moorhead. This is a game I really wish I could be at. I could make the 480-mile round trip, but I did that sort of thing last year a lot and I was pretty burnt out by the time the playoffs rolled around. Got to pace myself better this year. In terms of this game, Willamette has to win some games to prove to me that it can do it without Merben Woo, and perhaps more importantly, Grant Leslie. The guy threw 19 touchdowns last year and just three interceptions and Ryan Whitcomb, this year’s starter, threw three TD passes in 2007 when the team went 4-6.

Most likely Top 25 team to get upset
Ryan’s take: No. 19 Franklin. It’s a grisly prospect for the Grizzlies. All-America quarterback Chad Rupp is gone — along with more than half of last year’s starters on offense. The defensive depletion is even gloomier. This is not the team I’d prefer to take into a game against any OAC team, let alone Baldwin-Wallace.
Keith’s take: No. 19 Franklin. I don’t mean it as a knock on the strength of the Grizzlies’ potential longevity, as recruiting is generally pretty fertile after consecutive playoff appearances. But I’d be doing a disservice by ignoring how talented the seniors Franklin lost were and just assuming the program picks up where it left off.
Pat’s take: I might have given it away earlier, but No. 8 Willamette.

They’ll be on your radar
Ryan’s take: Hardin-Simmons. The Cowboys have the potential to be an undefeated team this regular season — and well into the playoffs. Getting there won’t be easy (starting this weekend against Whitworth), but if the offensive line comes together and gives quarterback Justin Feaster time to make decisions, this will be a tough team to corral.
Keith’s take: No. 17 Wartburg. Iowa’s orange and black-clad Knights head north to take on their Green brethren at St. Norbert. And while Wartburg has opened with a top MWC team (either Monmouth or SNC) three seasons running and has yet to win by fewer than 20, in the opener I’d still like to see a team closer to the one that pushed UW-Whitewater in last season’s playoffs than the one that needed overtime to beat 2-8 Dubuque.
Pat’s take: Adrian. Wins against OAC teams are hard to come by in the non-conference schedule. Adrian will have to do it without two-time MIAA offensive MVP Troy Niblock, but has an experienced replacement at quarterback and a good number back on defense going into the opener at home against Capital.

Which 2008 playoff team will have the rockiest opening week?
Ryan’s take: Willamette. For an NWC team, traveling far and wide is hardly foreign. But going 1,500 miles in Week 1 can’t be easy. Plus, with how much the Bearcats will have to reload, beating Concordia-Moorhead could be a challenge.
Keith’s take: LaGrange. It’s worth noting that Trine needed a fourth-quarter rally to win its opener at Manchester on Thursday night, because if not, the Thunder might already have this one sewn up. I look at the Panthers here because of the internal struggle players have to respect their opponents. It’s easy for LaGrange to think of itself as a 9-2 team from last year and B-SC as a 3-7 group and forget it needed two late Drew Carter-to-Devin Bilings touchdown passes, the last with 23 seconds left, to beat those Panthers, 34-31, in last year’s opener.
Pat’s take: Curry. They’re a little paranoid up in Milton, Mass., where they wouldn’t even commit to a style of offense on the record or off the record two weeks before the season started. They must think Bentley is pretty good.

Which bubble team has the best chance of breaking into the next Top 25 poll?
Ryan’s take: Delaware Valley. I’m a little surprised the Aggies aren’t part of the top two bits already. A win against Johns Hopkins, one of the favorites to win the Centennial, should give Del Val the kind of credibility that was so sporadic (and, ultimately, elusive) in ’08. With the Blue Jays able to crow about a highly potent run game, led on the line by a preseason All-American, a Del Val win would truly be sweet success.
Keith’s take: Millsaps. St. John Fisher is also receiving votes at “No. 31” and would be a lock to surge into the top 25 with an upset of No. 1 Mount Union, but I’m going to go ahead and assume that by “best chance” we mean “most realistic chance.” In which case, a Majors win and one ranked team’s loss would seem to move them in from the 26 spot.
Pat’s take: Trinity (Texas). I actually don’t feel strongly about any of the teams in the 26-32 range. Trine has already struggled this week, I think Millsaps may well lose, Salisbury is playing a team it should beat and beyond that, I think teams are pretty far off.

Most significant game against a non-Division III opponent.
Ryan’s take: Curry at Bentley. The Colonels raised eyebrows last year with a postseason win for the perennially discounted NEFC. Have fortunes faded since that November day? A test will come against Division II’s Bentley, which already has one game — a win — under its belt this season. A victory for Curry should not be taken lightly.
Keith’s take: Pace at Salisbury. The Gulls take on a team picked to finish in the mid-to-lower part of the Division II Northeast-10, as do Curry, Plymouth State and Worcester State. The difference in significance for Salisbury, however, is that without an automatic playoff bid to chase, and with six Division III perennial winners on the schedule, a strong start is imperative.
Pat’s take: No. 2 UW-Whitewater at Dickinson State. The Blue Hawks were a preseason No. 15 in the NAIA coaches poll, though they lost to Rocky Mountain College last week. That gives them a game under their belts and a home game while Whitewater takes a 12-hour bus ride since no D-III team will play them. This could spell trouble for our defending runner-up.

Predicting the Stagg Bowl has now reached double digits.

Dating to 1999, this marks the 10th consecutive time that we have made predictions for the championship game, though it hasn’t always been with this broad of a forecasting base. To cap the season, we have several voices leading off the discussion about Saturday’s game.

Last year, Tom Pattison of Warhawkfootball.com and Matt Barnhart of Bridgewaterfootball.com were our “champion” pickers, each foreshadowing a 27-24 Whitewater victory. The actual final score was 31-21.

Previous years’ picks: 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007

This year is unique in several ways, and with that comes unique ways of looking at
the matchup. The takes:

Pat Coleman, D3football.com
I haven’t had a great postseason of picks after a good early start, and often it seems to be from picking UW-Whitewater wrong. Last year we saw the key to beating Mount Union, and part of it is containing Nate Kmic. One thing I’ve seen from the Warhawks this year is the ability to limit, if not eliminate, yards after contact. And that’s despite starting two new linebackers. If the game becomes a battle of the secondaries, I like Whitewater’s chances. If it’s a battle of the kicking game, then I like Whitewater even more. But I worry about the quarterback play when I make this prediction. Mount Union clearly has a decided edge in Greg Micheli, with both his arm and his legs. I’m not big into cliches about wanting it more, or stuff like that. I just can foresee UW-Whitewater doing enough things right to win this game.
UW-Whitewater 27, Mount Union 20

Keith McMillan, D3football.com
I’d like to call this one a toss-up, but I’m not sure it is one. Unless Anthony White and the UW-Whitewater defensive line can cause some disruption among Luke Summers and the Mount Union offensive line (yeah, I just name-dropped linemen), it seems like the Mount Union offense will hum as usual. It will be physical, and the Warhawks will get their licks in, but if they defend their title, it would be a mild surprise to me. If all else is equal, the combination of the most efficient passer in college football history and the leading rusher in NCAA history should put Mount Union over the top.
Mount Union 38, UW-Whitewater 20

Tom Pattison, Warhawkfootball.com
So here we go again. Whitewater vs. Mount Union IV. From a Whitewater perspective, looking at the statistics of Nate Kmic, Greg Micheli and Cecil Shorts, you wonder if the Warhawks belong on the same field. Had the same feeling in ‘07. A reporter from the Roanoke area repeatedly tried to get MUC head coach Larry Kehres this week to say that the Purple Raiders were out for revenge following UWW’s 31-21 win in last year’s Stagg Bowl. No dice! Kehres isn’t looking for revenge, he is looking for
his team to play error-free football, something it did not do in last year’s game. The farther you go in the playoffs, the more magnified are turnovers and missed scoring opportunities in the Red Zone. Whitewater getting back to the Stagg Bowl after losing 24 seniors and 17 starters from last year’s National Championship team is simply amazing. The team jelled early in the season and rode its defense to a share of the WIAC title. As a fifth seed, UWW needed to travel to Salem, Ore., to slow down the high octane offense of Willamette. Last week, the Hawks dominated a Mary Hardin-Baylor team that most predicted would beat Whitewater and advance to the Stagg Bowl. The Hawks possess a strong, physical, fast defense. The offense features two 1000-yard rushers for the first time in school history. They are not Justin Beaver, but they are pretty darn good! I also think Whitewater’s special teams have an advantage over MUC, lead by Jeff Schebler, NCAA Division III’s all-time leading field goal kicker. Hawks win the special teams play and force four MUC turnovers.
UW-Whitewater 27, Mount Union 21

Bret Page, former Mary Hardin-Baylor linebacker
I believe that both teams will try to set the tempo early by trying to set up and establish the run game. UWW will have a slight advantage at being more balanced and mixing in the pass. Mount Union will have to play well on defense as they seem a little small, and I think Whitewater will make them pay for that as they have proven to be very big and physical in their impressive win over UMHB this year. I think it will be a clean game as both teams are disciplined, so which ever team is able to capitalize on errors such as penalties and turnovers will have the upper hand. I think neither team will be able to count on one player to carry them through, but it will be a total team effort for both sides as they will have to mix it up to try to pull out the win. Whitewater in a close one …
UW-Whitewater 31, Mount Union 28

Gordon Mann, D3football.com
Regardless of how the Stagg Bowl turns out, Coach Lance Liepold has my vote for the D3football.com Coach of the Year. Both Mount Union and UW-Whitewater had to replace a significant portion of their starting lineups this year, but the Warhawks lost the offensive player of the year and their starting quarterback. They’ve battled through injuries, playoff road games and the toughest conference in Division III. The magnitude of that accomplishment underlines potential weaknesses going into Saturday. Last year the Warhawks had an intangible edge in that Justin Beaver was playing the last game in a spectacular college career. This year that edge slides over to Mount Union because of Nate Kmic and Greg Micheli. The situations aren’t the same but watching Mount Union stifle Wheaton when its top running back was hurt makes me wonder how effective the UW-Whitewater’s ground game will be if Levell Coppage isn’t at full strength. And while UW-Whitewater has impressive wins, they haven’t looked invincible. Remember they lost to two-loss UW-Stevens Point and had close games with Willamette and Wartburg (20-17 in fourth quarter). On the bright side for UWW, I was wrong on two of three previous matchups.
Mount Union 28, UW-Whitewater 24

Ryan Tipps, D3football.com
UW-Whitewater is proof that the whole is greater than the parts. The skill players aren’t household names like Mount Union’s Micheli or Kmic, but as a unit, the Warhawks have overcome tests of injury, travel and inexperience, to name a few. They emerged from the toughest branch of the “West” bracket, have been forcing turnovers (+13 on the season) and can put pressure on a quarterback. The biggest offensive weapon for UW-W could be dual rushers that have the potential to sustain a drive and wear down Mount’s defense. But for every score Whitewater can put up, Mount should be able to match. UW-W has proven throughout the postseason that it can stop the run, but facing a passing game as sophisticated and crisp as MUC’s may become the Achilles’ heel for the defending national champions.
UW-Whitewater 34, Mount Union 31

Frank Rossi, D3football.com
It’s a tough choice, now that the Warhawks have broken the ice with a win last year. There are some things that are consistent every year with these teams: 1) Mount Union’s offense is in tip-top shape; 2) Mount Union’s defense has proven sturdy all season; and 3) UW-Whitewater’s defense has improved all year. That leaves one question for me — but the Warhawks’ offense is not as strong as it was last year with Justin Beaver. Because of this, Mount Union unseats the defending
champions, pulling away at the end.
Mount Union 42, UW-Whitewater 24