D3football Daily Dose

We’ve predicted every playoff game this season and every Stagg Bowl since 1999. With the championship of the 2007 season upon us we expend our pool of predictors to include people with connections to each team and to the Stagg Bowl, as well as the rest of our Salem broadcast crew.

Last year we predicted Mount Union would win, which is a lot like predicting the sun will come up — admittedly, it’s a safe bet. Ric Brienza, Mount Union broadcaster and publisher of mtunionfootball.com, was our “champion” with a 34-27 prediction in favor of the Purple Raiders.

Previous years’ picks: 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006

He leads off our Triple-take take.

Ric Brienza, publisher, Mtunionfootball.com
The key for both teams will be to limit mistakes and finish drives, especially in bad weather conditions. Mount Union has done that better in each of the last two championship games and that’s a big reason they won both. It looks like weather will unfortunately play a factor in the game. If it isn’t miserable conditions that limit 90% of each team’s offense the Purple Raiders pull away for a comfortable victory. If the weather is really bad, it will be a one touchdown or closer game.
Mount Union 38, Whitewater 17

Pat Coleman, publisher, D3football.com
UW-Whitewater has something it didn’t have the past two years, in a mobile quarterback. It has a healthy Justin Beaver. It lacks the big threat at tight end and the fast guy on the outside. But then again, Whitewater didn’t try to stretch the field too much in 2005 and 2006. The play-caller has changed, the signal-caller has changed and the ground game is just as reliable. But the real change is on defense, where it does seem the Warhawks are better than last year. The secondary will need to continue its ball-hawking, the front four will have to apply the pressure and the linebackers are big, fast, and can make plays. However, I’m not sure that’s enough against this Mount Union team. If the weather is truly awful, knock seven off each side.
Mount Union 35, UW-Whitewater 21

Keith McMillan, D3football.com
For UW-Whitewater to make its third time the charm, it’ll have to figure out how to impose its will on Mount Union. That means dictating the tempo with long drives offensively, and tackling well on defense so the Warhawks can get off the field on three-and-outs. Big names aside, line play and tackling will be keys Saturday — the Purple Raiders just happen to feature one of the most difficult-to-tackle foursomes we’ve seen in Pierre Garcon, Nate Kmic, Justin Wray and Greg Micheli. The Warhawks counter with studs at defensive end and linebacker and a senior-laden secondary. UW-Whitewater can pull the upset — QB Danny Jones, or a scheme from coach Lance Leipold might make Stagg Bowl XXXV different than the past two, but with a Mount Union team with so few weaknesses and one that is so rarely unprepared, I fear we’re in for more of the same.
Mount Union 33, UW-Whitewater 20

Gordon Mann, D3football.com
If Division III football were a different animal, there would be more talk about whether this year’s Mount Union team is one of the best Division III teams of all time. With little video evidence and most Division III fans appropriate focused mainly on their own team, that’s a tough discussion to have. Of course, that discussion doesn’t happen at all unless Mount Union defeats UW-Whitewater tomorrow. And so they will. Justin Beaver is a great running back and an inspirational story, but he was held in check by Mary Hardin-Baylor last week. The Crusaders have a great run defense, allowing just 48.7 yards per game. That’s second in the country to Mount Union who has halved the total to an unreal 24.2 yards per game. The task of keeping pace with the Purple Juggernaut’s offense falls on Danny Jones and the UWW passing game. Jones is a lot of fun to watch, fleet-footed and cannon-armed. But he needs his receivers to get open and make big plays. Outside of Neil Mrkvicka, can anyone else get free from the vise-lock defense of Matt Kostelnik, Jonah Wilson and company? It’s been a great season for the Warhawks in which they have achieved excellence while changing their quarterback, offensive coordinator and head coach. Unfortunately for them, this much remains the same.
Mount Union 35, UW-Whitewater 17

Tom Pattison, Warhawkfootball.com
The Warhawks come into this year’s Stagg Bowl with a different attitude. Not the pressure of the past two years. Senior leadership is the difference in this year’s team. Hawks will also ride the wave of emotion after watching teammate Justin Beaver accept the Gagliardi Trophy. Third time’s the charm.
UW-Whitewater 27, Mount Union 24

John McGraw, D3football.com
Since this is the third installment of Mount Union vs. UW-Whitewater, who’s Rocky Balboa and who’s Clubber Lang? Somehow I don’t see either Justin Beaver or Nate Kmic shouting out “Yo, Adrian!” after the game. That being said, I admit I picked Whitewater last year and that didn’t turn out too well. The Purple Raiders have bludgeoned everyone they’ve played this year and I think that continues in Salem. UW-Whitewater and Justin Beaver will put up a fight, but Mount’s too much in the end.
Mount Union 31, UW-Whitewater 17

Ryan Tipps, D3football.com
It’s hard to say something that hasn’t been said in some format at least once before. And the even harder part is being on the outside looking in on whatever trick Coach Kehres has up his sleeve for the Stagg Bowl (a la Greg Micheli in ‘06). We all know what makes Mount Union good: practically everything. But looking at the opponent, I like that UW-Whitewater has a bigger and more mobile offensive line than the Purple Raiders are used to facing. I like that UW-W has played in snow and ice already this year (have you seen Salem’s forecast?). And I like that UW-W has a new and dynamic crop of playmakers and coaches that will try to jazz things up. No, this will definitely not be played like the Stagg Bowls of 2005 and ‘06. Though that doesn’t mean we’ll see a drastically different result. Mount’s just that good.
Mount Union 38, UW-Whitewater 20

Matt Barnhart, Bridgewaterfootball.com/Stone Station
Entering both the St. John’s game (’03) and Mary Hardin-Baylor game (’04), the Purple Raiders looked unstoppable, allowing only 6.5 and 8.7 points to their opponents, respectively. This year is no different, with only 10 touchdowns being scored against MUC. But as in 2003 and 2004, playoff opponents found a way to beat The Machine. They did it by sticking to the run, and forcing MUC to throw. SJU and MHB combined for 116 rushes for 555 yards. They also combined to hold the Raiders to only 211 rushing yards -– on 69 carries –- and 25-of-57 passing with five interceptions. That’s not what Mount Union wants to do. This season, UW-Whitewater has nearly rushed (679) exactly twice as much as they have thrown (340). The Warhawk defensive line — a six-man rotation — has combined for 50.5 tackles for a loss and 35 sacks this year. It’s also worth noting that UWW has forced 49 turnovers this year – second best in Division III. If they can stop the run, and the Gagliardi winner carries the ball 35 to 40 times, I like UWW in a close one.
UW-Whitewater 27, Mount Union 24

The first of the D3football.com crew has arrived in Salem — took a look at the field, which is a nice upgrade. They’ve also done some nice work with signage in and around the stadium. The banners with the name of each national champion that used to line the front of the grandstand have moved to the outside concourse and there is a new look inside.

The teams will be practicing here at the stadium in a short while, with Mount Union first, followed by UW-Whitewater. Currently, a local TV station is here doing a news piece on the game.

The weather is mild so far, though we know that is forecast to change. Hoping tomorrow’s weather holds over for an extra day.

We’ll have more from here later. Practices, then Gagliardi presentation tonight. Hope you can get down here.

Keith McMillan and I broadcast the Mount Union/Bethel game Saturday from Alliance, Ohio, and although we had more than 4,000 people listening live at various points throughout the game, you may not have heard our halftime interview.

We spoke to Dick Kaiser, the national chair of the Division III football committee, about the bracket, the new strength of schedule measurements, the final teams taken, etc. It’s a good look into the selection process.

 

 Around the Nation Podcast [10:09m]: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

Fifteen weeks and 1,100 games have led to this, Stagg Bowl XXXV, between Mount Union and UW-Whitewater.

If you’re new to Division III, these teams have met in the Stagg Bowl each of the previous two years as well. How have things changed since? What can UW-Whitewater do differently in 2007 than it did in 2006 and 2005? What will the Stagg Bowl be like with a healthy Pierre Garcon and Justin Beaver?

Get ready for the Stagg Bowl with Keith McMillan and Pat Coleman’s take in this week’s Around the Nation podcast.

 

 Around the Nation Podcast [21:27m]: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

So let’s open the floor up for questions and comments on Bethel at Mount Union and Mary Hardin-Baylor at UW-Whitewater.

A lot of people are expecting a third consecutive all-purple Stagg Bowl. Since the first round of the playoffs, close games have not been the norm. Will we see a great finish on Saturday at either location, or both? What do the Crusaders and Royals have to do to pull the upsets? Why will the Warhawks and Purple Raiders dominate?

Give us your specific thoughts on the matchups, the weather or whatever crosses your mind. And feel free if you’re watching or listening to us to kick in your in-game updates here as well. And as always, enjoy!

There are just two games left, so it’s time to go into some of the thought process we use to predict these scores. Remember, Triple-Take is the weekly playoff score prediction blog from the people who live and breathe D3football.com: Publisher Pat Coleman, Around the Nation columnist Keith McMillan and Deputy Managing Editor Gordon Mann.

Last week’s results, with Gordon going 4-for-4, Pat going 3-for-4 and Keith going 2-for-4.
Mary Hardin-Baylor 27, Wesley 10. Gordon’s pick of Mary Hardin-Baylor 28-20 was the closest.
Bethel 27, Central 13. Gordon’s pick was the closest, as the only one to pick Bethel. (Guess he knew it would snow.)
UW-Whitewater 47, Wabash 7. Keith’s pick of 44-21 was the closest.
Mount Union 52, St. John Fisher 10. Pat’s pick of 40-17 was the closest.

On to the games!

Mary Hardin-Baylor (13-1) at UW-Whitewater (13-1)
Pat’s take: I really want to take Mary Hardin-Baylor and shock the world but I don’t know that they have enough offensive diversity to get it done. The year they made that run into December, remember, they did it on turf when the weather was bad. They played at Washington and Jefferson in the quarterfinals and Mount Union in the semis, and though it was cold, the field was consistent. They won’t see that this weekend and that’s the deciding factor in my mind. If they take better care of the ball and stick to their game plan they will win. However, Whitewater has a way of getting the ball back and they will here.
UW-Whitewater 34, Mary Hardin-Baylor 21.

Keith’s take: I have a real strong feeling that the other semifinal will be won and lost in the trenches. We can be certain that Mary Hardin-Baylor will be more careful with the ball in the early going this time around after turnovers got them in trouble early during October’s 41-14 loss at UW-Whitewater. If UMHB’s defensive line keeps blocks off Jerrell Freeman and Eric Henri, the Crusaders are good enough defensively to keep it close. And that’s where Mary Hardin-Baylor is effective, not so much jumping on teams, but wearing them down. Both teams will try to establish the run, but look for UMHB to be more conservative while the Warhawks are opening things up as they gain confidence in Danny Jones weekly. The Crusaders definitely have a chance here, but the smart pick is the Warhawks.
UW-Whitewater 34, Mary Hardin-Baylor 24.

Gordon’s take: There has been a lot of focus on how Mary Hardin-Baylor committed five turnovers against UW-Whitewater earlier this year, leading to 24 Warhawk points. That could certainly be an aberration for the Crusaders who only had about 1.5 turnovers per game in all their other contests. But it’s not an aberration for the Warhawks who have forced 48 turnovers this season, including 14 in the playoffs. Even if Mary Hardin-Baylor doesn’t give up the ball, can they sustain a drive against Warhawks? In two games the Crusaders have had 27 offensive series against the Warhawks. They have had one drive that went more than 50 yards. They have had 15 that 10 or less, including a handful where they went backwards. UW-Whitewater has a balanced enough offense and aggressive enough defense that they will put points on the board. Can the Crusaders do the same?
UW-Whitewater 28 Mary Hardin Baylor 14.

Bethel (13-1) at Mount Union (14-0)
Pat’s take: This isn’t a place to take dumb chances. It’s a place to take smart ones, like sticking with your running game down by two scores in the fourth quarter, or going for the end zone with a running back on a swing pass rather than kick a field goal to close the half. It’s not a place to go for it on fourth down from your own 25. It’s not a place to be at less than 100% health. If, and only if, Bethel can control the ball for 40 minutes, like it did at Central, or like Augustana did at Mount Union in 1999, this will be a competitive game. But while I expect Mount Union to score quickly, I don’t expect Bethel to be able to do it every time down the floor. Wait, sorry, field.
Mount Union 48, Bethel 20.

Keith’s take: Bethel seems to be built to grind, so if it can do a couple of things well early, we’ll have an interesting semifinal. They have got to either jump on Mount Union first or limit the Purple Raiders’ start, perhaps by forcing field goal attempts on early drives instead of giving up touchdowns. To stay competitive early, as Mount Union’s last two opponents have failed to do, they have to finish tackles, especially the first guy who gets to Nate Kmic. The Purple Raiders lost their last meeting with a MIAC champion, back in 2003’s Stagg Bowl, which might provide the Royals a reason to believe they won’t be blown off the field. Bottom line, if Bethel can turn it into a grind, they have a chance. Mount Union’s been too diverse offensively and too stout defensively for everyone else though, so I’ll go:
Mount Union 41, Bethel 13.

Gordon’s take: Mount Union hasn’t played anyone close enough this year to give us a good sense what its weakness is, if any, but the Ithaca game might be the best indication. The Bombers scored 18 points by throwing the ball for 324 yards. The only other team to score more than one touchdown against the Purple Raiders was Otterbein, who had two passing touchdowns. That’s not to say Mount Union is vulnerable against the pass, but you need a good passing attack to have any hope against this juggernaut. If you can move the ball in the air…if you don’t commit turnovers…if you don’t give up 20+ yard gains to Nate Kmic…if pigs fly…maybe you can beat the Purple Raiders. The Royals’ offense is primarily a rushing one and their 167.3 passing yards per game ranks second last in the MIAC, ahead of only Hamline. Not a good sign. Nor is the fact that quarterback Ben Wetzell is banged up from last week’s game at Central. Plus I can’t shake the feeling that Bethel will battle “just happy to be here” feelings of their own, after a long road trip to a prohibitive favorite during the deepest playoff run in Royals history. All that adds up to a lopsided affair in Alliance.
Mount Union 42 Bethel 7.

It’s hard to focus too much energy on this game this time of year, with either semifinals or a national championship going on at the same time, but just a reminder that the Aztec Bowl takes place Saturday evening, with kickoff at 7 p.m. ET in Chihuahua, Mexico.

It’s the Division III all-star team facing the champion of Mexico’s collegiate league. The frequent questions about the Aztec Bowl and some answers:

Why is the game played on the same weekend as the national semifinals (or the Stagg Bowl some years)?
The AFCA doesn’t have any control over the date of the game. It’s set by Mexico’s college football association, as is the location, which is why the Division III All-Stars are always on the road.

How come my favorite player didn’t make the team?
This question is often asked about players that aren’t seniors. Playing in a postseason All-Star game is only possible if you’ve exhausted your eligibility. Most sophomores and juniors aren’t willing to do that just to play in this game.

How can I watch the game online?
You can’t, according to the Aztec Bowl site. You can listen to it online here.

Wouldn’t it be better to have a true Division III on Division III All-Star game?
Yep, we agree, it would. I’d rather see 96 or so All-Stars playing instead of 48. But Division III and the AFCA would need tens of thousands more dollars to put on that game, since it would have two teams. Perhaps we’ll get there someday. Then we’d have control over the date, as well. Now that Salem has turf, perhaps a true Division III All-Star Game could be played the next day in Salem Stadium. Picture one senior from each of the Stagg Bowl teams from the night before making a cameo appearance in the game, etc.

Besides, I know plenty of people have horror stories about non-Aztec Bowl Division III All-Star events. Aztec may only have one team, but it is done right.

Go grab your coffee and sit down with us on a Monday morning for this week’s ATN podcast. Four games last week, two games this week. Plus, hear what Keith thought of the Wesley/Mary Hardin-Baylor game and Pat’s take on the Central/Bethel game. What’s coming up this week? Are we really destined for a threepeat Stagg Bowl?

Listen in.

 

 Around the Nation Podcast [26:49m]: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

Looking like a tough weekend weatherwise in parts of the bracket this weekend.

I, for example, am projecting missed extra points in the North and West regional finals because of weather. But those are only a point or two either direction.

In last week’s picks, Keith and I both went 8-for-8 and Gordon was 7-for-8. Gordon got his in just under the gun, in a comment post eight minutes before kickoff.

Mount Union 59, New Jersey 7. Closest pick, Gordon (Mount Union 42-7). None picked TCNJ with more than seven points.
St. John Fisher 38, Curry 7. Closest pick, Pat (SJF 31-10). All three had St. John Fisher in the 30s.
Central 37, St. John’s 7. Closest pick, Pat (barely, Central 27-24).
Bethel 21, UW-Eau Claire 12. Closest pick, Gordon (Bethel 21-17).
Mary Hardin-Baylor 64, N.C. Wesleyan 0. Closest pick, Pat (UMHB 48-21).
Wesley 38, Muhlenberg 21. Closest pick, Pat (Wesley 28-20).
UW-Whitewater 59, North Central 28. Closest pick, Pat (UWW 38-17).
Wabash 38, Case Western Reserve 23. Closest pick, Pat (Wabash 30-19).

Here’s our take on the regional finals.

South Region
Pat: Mary Hardin-Baylor 41, Wesley 27
Keith: Wesley 34, Mary Hardin-Baylor 31 (OT)
Gordon: Mary Hardin-Baylor 28 Wesley 20

West Region
Pat: Central 20, Bethel 13
Keith: Central 29, Bethel 16
Gordon: Bethel 24 Central 21 (OT)

North Region
Pat: UW-Whitewater 34, Wabash 20
Keith: UW-Whitewater 44, Wabash 21
Gordon: UW-Whitewater 30 Wabash 17

East Region
Pat: Mount Union 40, St. John Fisher 17
Keith: Mount Union 45, St. John Fisher 27
Gordon: Mount Union 35 St. John Fisher 21

In 2005 Delaware Valley faced the unenviable task of replacing three players who were the best at their position in school history – All American quarterback Adam Knoblauch, all-time leading rusher Steve Cook and All American center Damien Ciecwisz.

Knoblauch and Cook received far more attention than Ciecwisz, but their impact on the Aggies was no greater than the man dubbed C-Wiz. He anchored a very good line that ran and pass blocked for a balanced offense. He was so accurate on shotgun snaps that you forgot they could be tricky until he was gone. And the next season one coach remarked that Ciecwisz, not the more lauded quarterback or running back, might be the toughest guy to replace.

Centers are so critical to a team’s success. Ask a running team that relies on its line to open holes up the middle. Or ask a passing team whose potent attack can be short circuited by a shotgun snap that’s a tad long or a tad short, granting the defense the half-second they need to get to the quarterback. The Center is the only player other than the quarterback who touches the ball on every snap.

And yet, when putting together this year’s All Region teams, there weren’t many centers nominated in some regions for the honor. Just one center was nominated in the East. Honorees were sparse at the conference level, too. The three centers named All Conference in the NJAC were honorable mention, not first or second team. There were no centers on the first teams for the Liberty League or MAC. In fact, there were no centers selected in the MAC at all.

NOTE: Thanks to Saxon54 for a correction. The Empire 8 did have a center on its first team, Mike Callahan of Alfred. I apologize for the mistake.

Last year we mentioned that the tight end seems like an endangered species in Division III. We know centers are plentiful and there’s plenty evidence of some very good ones, like Mount Union’s Eric Safran who is up for the Draddy Trophy.