Projecting the playoffs

See, since we started doing the Pool B Power Ranking (links at left), we've already got 70% of the hard decisions about the Field of 28 taken care of. Obviously, the top seven teams in our rankings each week are the ones we think would make the playoffs if the season ended today. (Otherwise, what's the point of doing rankings?)

The three Pool C teams, however, a different story. The teams in this group that are traditionally the best already have two losses, or, will have two losses by the time they get to Pool C. Those are Ohio Northern and Rowan. Much has been made of Ohio Northern as a lock, since they are the second-best team in the OAC.

We feel the need to point out here that while ONU has never been within 24 points of Mount Union since beginning its run, there are other playoff contenders this year that have performed much better against the Purple Raiders in that time frame, such as Rowan, Augustana and Wittenberg. ONU fans, that's hardly an argument for your team. Try to keep it close someday. The loss to UW-Stevens Point doesn't help either. But for now, we've got both ONU and Rowan in.

Here's our best guess at the Field of 28, updated Oct. 31. This is just a guess. This is how we feel the committee would choose and pair the teams if they made their decision today. 

We could certainly name these brackets North, South, East and West, but since teams can move into a bracket that is not part of their region, it's better to just name the brackets as we have traditionally — after their top seed. The NCAA refers to them as Bracket 1, Bracket 2, etc.

Teams in bold have clinched playoff spots. We are projecting some automatic bid winners and not others, depending on how it would affect seedings. We realize that many conference races are still up in the air.

The Montclair State Bracket
1. Montclair State (A)
2. RPI (B)
3. Western Maryland (A)
4. Union (B)
5. Rowan (C)
6. NEFC champion (A)
7. Western Connecticut (A)
Matchups in this bracket vary because of travel. We'll put Western Connecticut at RPI, but Rowan at Western Maryland and the NEFC champion at Union. The possible NEFC champions are close to the 400-mile mark distant from Western Maryland (beyond which the NCAA is forced to pay for an airplane flight), so there might not be a need to adjust the matchups. We had to move a South team into this bracket, but unfortunately, Western Maryland was the lowest-seeded team we could possibly move. Trinity and Thomas More are not well-situated geographically to make the easternmost bracket.

The Widener Bracket
1. Widener (A)
2. Bridgewater (A)
3. Washington & Jefferson (B)
4. Hardin-Simmons (A)
5. Trinity (A)
6. Thomas More (B)
7. Ferrum/Christopher Newport (A)
There is a good amount of talk regarding the three unbeaten teams in this bracket, but as long as Montclair State finishes undefeated I find it unlikely the committee would move another undefeated team into its bracket. That leaves Widener to rule the roost here, although it's very possible Bridgewater, being the only one of the three teams that has beaten another playoff team (Western Maryland) could get the nod as well. Bridgewater has struggled with a pair of .500 teams, however, and that's troublesome. W&J is a clear third because they will be 8-0 against D-III teams (9-0 if Westminster counts, they're still in transition from D-II). Hardin-Simmons is only in if it wins out, and they would host Trinity. Each school's loss is out of region. Then Thomas More, playing at W&J, and the Dixie champ playing at Bridgewater.

The Mount Union Bracket
1. Mount Union (A)
2. Augustana (A)
3. Hope (B)
4. Wittenberg (A)
5. Ohio Northern (C)
6. Defiance/Anderson (A)
7. MacMurray (A)
Someone actually asked earlier in October if Mount Union would get a first-round bye. Uhm, yeah. This bracket is actually not so hard, because there's Mount Union for the bye and then only one other unbeaten team. Augustana would host MacMurray (short trip), the HCAC champ travels to Hope (short trip, relatively), and Ohio Northern travels to Wittenberg (or vice versa, I suppose).

The Whitworth Bracket
1. Whitworth (B)
2. UW-Eau Claire (A)
3. Central (A)
4. St. Norbert (A)
5. St. John's (A)
6. Pacific Lutheran (B)
7. Bethel (C)
I expect this bracket might see the most changes. Whitworth has a tough challenge this weekend against Linfield, which can try to play its way into the field. If they take Whitworth down, it's a three-way tie with one loss in the NWC (which does not have an automatic bid): Whitworth beat Pacific Lutheran, PLU beat Linfield, and then Linfield beating Whitworth. I still think only two of those teams get in, but it would be an interesting question as to which two. I'd like to seed St. John's ahead of St. Norbert, but two losses compared to zero is a big leap. And yes, St. Norbert has struggled the last two years to beat Hamline in its opener, but the last two years they've put up first-round playoff performances that belie that Week 1 result.

Here's where we should discuss Pool C. The committee displayed a complete disregard for the criteria, going outside the box last year to take Ohio Northern (8-1 vs. D-III, 0-1 vs. playoff teams) over Illinois Wesleyan (9-1 vs. D-III, 2-0 vs. playoff teams). So who can project what they're thinking?

There are several one-loss candidates in Pool C, and a couple of them are worthy.

Mary-Hardin Baylor could still play itself into the field this weekend by beating Hardin-Simmons and taking the ASC automatic bid. But without the win, the road is tenuous. Things are no better for UMHB than they were last season. The non-conference win against NAIA Belhaven (3-4) doesn't look much better than it did in 2000. We're going to recommend a game against Trinity (Texas) for future years, assuming Trinity, which often seems to be looking for games, will take them up on it.

Lycoming is real close as well. They are not much better off than Bethel is, and in fact, they are nearly interchangeable. For both teams, their only loss of the year is a shutout by a 2000 national semifinalist. But there's one difference to look at — Lycoming lost at home, 35-0 to Widener; Bethel lost on the road, 34-0 to St. John's. Bethel also has a quality non-conference win against Aurora, although it won't be as helpful as it was last year since Aurora will not win the Illini-Badger title.

Millikin made the field last year and was run out quickly by Ohio Northern. Having lost to Augustana and not having any real way to force a three-way tie this year, Millikin is not in any position to make the field. Consider that their three non-conference opponents, Knox, Eureka and Blackburn, are a combined 3-21. 'Nuff said.

Centre, Ohio Wesleyan and Ripon also have just one D-III loss, along with St. Thomas and others, but we don't currently consider them viable Pool C candidates.