Projecting the playoffs

This is our second attempt at this for the 2001 season. Biggest move this week was dropping Rowan from our Pool C projection. We thought they would get a big bump in strength of schedule from playing Montclair State this upcoming week, and while that's true, we're now close enough to the end of the season to realize that it probably won't lift their opponents' record above .500. And they'd be 6-2 against D-III, where Mary-Hardin Baylor would be 7-1, with a .541 opponents' record, and a loss to a playoff team. One of Rowan's losses would be to non-playoff-bound Cortland State.

Since we started doing the Pool B Power Ranking, we've already got 70% of the hard decisions about the Field of 28 taken care of. Obviously, the top seven teams in our rankings each week are the ones we think would make the playoffs if the season ended today. (Otherwise, what's the point of doing rankings?)

Much has been made of Ohio Northern as a lock, since they are the second-best team in the OAC.

We feel the need to point out here that while ONU has never been within 24 points of Mount Union since beginning its run, there are other playoff contenders this year that have performed much better against the Purple Raiders in that time frame, such as Rowan, Augustana and Wittenberg. ONU fans, that's hardly an argument for your team. Try to keep it close someday. The loss to UW-Stevens Point doesn't help either, although if Stevens Point upsets Eau Claire and makes the playoffs from winning the WIAC, it would hurt less. It was also in Week 1.

Here's our best guess at the Field of 28, updated Nov. 8. This is just a guess. This is how we feel the committee would choose and pair the teams if they made their decision today. 

We could certainly name these brackets North, South, East and West, but since teams can move into a bracket that is not part of their region, it's better to just name the brackets as we have traditionally — after their top seed. The NCAA refers to them as Bracket 1, Bracket 2, etc.

Teams in bold have clinched playoff spots. We are projecting some automatic bid winners and not others, depending on how it would affect seedings. We realize that some conference races are still up in the air.

The Montclair State Bracket
1. Montclair State (A)
2. RPI (B)
3. Western Maryland (A)
4. Union (B)
5. Nichols/Westfield State (A)
6. Western Connecticut (A)
7. Ferrum/Christopher Newport (A)
Matchups in this bracket vary because of travel. We're forced to now bring two south teams in because of the lack of East qualifiers, so we've brought in the lower seeds that make the most sense geographically (Western Maryland and the Dixie Conference champ) and paired them against each other.Western Connecticut (or the FFC champ) at RPI, and the NEFC title game winner at Union. Note that if Nichols wins the NEFC, they'd have three losses, and we'd swap them with Western Connecticut.

The Widener Bracket
1. Widener (A)
2. Bridgewater (A)
3. Washington & Jefferson (B)
4. Hardin-Simmons (A)
5. Trinity (A)
6. Mary-Hardin Baylor (C)
7. Thomas More (B)
As long as Montclair State finishes undefeated I find it unlikely the committee would move another unbeaten into its bracket. That leaves Widener to rule the roost here, although it's very possible Bridgewater, being the only one of the three teams that has beaten another playoff team (Western Maryland) could get the nod as well. W&J is a clear third because they will be 8-0 against D-III teams (9-0 if Westminster counts, they're still in transition from D-II). It looks like we have to put Thomas More against W&J because of travel — there's no direct route to Bridgewater and winding across West Virginia puts the trip over the 400-mile limit. So it's Mary-Hardin Baylor at Bridgewater. The other two Texas teams have to play each other, and since both have a loss, there's no logic to separating them in the bracket.

The Mount Union Bracket
1. Mount Union (A)
2. Augustana (A)
3. Hope (B)
4. Wittenberg (A)
5. Ohio Northern (C)
6. Defiance (A)
7. MacMurray (A)
This bracket is actually not so hard, because there's Mount Union for the bye and then only one other unbeaten team. Augustana would host MacMurray (short trip), the HCAC champ travels to Hope (short trip, relatively), and Ohio Northern travels to Wittenberg (or vice versa, I suppose). This is the same bracket that was here last week.

The Eau Claire Bracket
1. UW-Eau Claire (A)
2. Central (A)
3. St. Norbert (A)
4. St. John's (A)
5. Pacific Lutheran (B)
6. Linfield (B)
7. Bethel (C)
I expect this bracket might see the most changes. Whitworth fell out of the field, in our opinion. Recent results have been a big deal to the committee in the past, and Linfield just beat Whitworth. And Pacific Lutheran has beaten Linfield. I'd like to seed St. John's ahead of St. Norbert, but two losses compared to zero is a big leap. And yes, St. Norbert has struggled the last two years to beat Hamline in its opener, but the last two years they've put up first-round playoff performances in Week 12 that belie that Week 1 result. I do not know if the committee would pair up the two NWC teams in the first round, but they did put them on opposite sides of the bracket last year.

Other Pool C candidates and their vital stats:

Lycoming plays all of its games in the Middle Atlantic Conference. Thusly, their opponents' record is guaranteed to be darn close to .500. That's where it rests this week. (These records include the final week's opponent.)

We'll at least discuss Centre, which beat I-AA non-scholarship Davidson this past week. They also have a .500 opponents' record at the moment. Their loss to Trinity is as ugly as Lycoming's was to Widener. They have the "upper division win" in their favor. Davidson was 3-0 in three previous games against D-III opponents, middle-of-the-pack ODAC teams.

Millikin made the field last year and was run out quickly by Ohio Northern. Having lost to Augustana and not having any real way to force a three-way tie this year, Millikin is not in any position to make the field. Consider that their three non-conference opponents, Knox, Eureka and Blackburn, are a combined 3-22 against D-III opponents. Total opponents' record is .427, the second-worst to ...

... Ohio Wesleyan, whose opponents' record is .333!