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Projecting the playoffs
| The playoff basics Twenty-eight teams will form four seven-team brackets and the top team in each will get a bye. And we know the champions of 18 conferences will get an automatic bid to the playoffs. Three runners-up in those conferences will get what are called Pool C bids, and seven bids (Pool B) will go to independents or members of non-automatic conferences. So how will the brackets be formed, who will play whom? That's what we answer each week from here until Selection Sunday. |
This is always an inexact science. But hey, it's fun!
Here's our best guess at the Field of 28, updated Oct. 31. This is just a guess. This is how we feel the committee would choose and pair the teams if they made their decision today.
We could certainly name these brackets North, South, East and West, but since teams can move into a bracket that is not part of their region, it's better to just name the brackets as we have traditionally — after their top seed. The NCAA refers to them as Bracket 1, Bracket 2, etc.
Teams in bold have clinched playoff spots. We are projecting some automatic bid winners and not others, depending on how it would affect seedings. We realize that many conference races are still up in the air.
The Rowan Bracket
1. Rowan (A)
2. Westfield State (A)
3. Hobart (B)
4. Brockport State (B)
5. Ithaca (B)
6. Springfield (A)
7. Muhlenberg (C)
Rowan finally gets the bye it has deserved as the top team in this
bracket over the last four seasons. Westfield State is unbeaten and untested
— usually that's enough to get a top seed in
this bracket. Hobart has to be above all the teams with one loss as well.
Brockport beat Ithaca, who beat Springfield. Muhlenberg would try to become
the second Centennial conference runner-up to win a playoff opener at
the NEFC champ. The committee might choose to break up Ithaca and Brockport
State, since they have already played — but
so will have Ithaca and Hobart. And the Ithaca/Hobart game this week will
go a long way toward deciding the seedings and Pool B selections.
The Bridgewater Bracket
1. Bridgewater (A)
2. Trinity (A)
3. UMHB (A)
4. Salisbury (B)
5. McDaniel (A)
6. King's (A)
7. Ferrum (A)
Yes, we are sending two teams to Texas. It's too big a bridge to cross
for us to match up two unbeaten teams in the first round just to save
money. Bridgewater, as the only unbeaten with a win against a playoff
team, is again the nod as the top seed.
The Mount Union Bracket
1. Mount Union (A)
2. Wabash (A)
3. Hanover (A)
4. MacMurray (A)
5. Augustana (A)
6. Alma (B)
7. John Carroll (C)
We keep pushing for this MacMurray/Augustana matchup and never get it.
The rest of this bracket is pretty straightforward travelwise, for once.
The Linfield Bracket
1. Linfield (B)
2. St. Norbert (A)
3. UW-Stout (A)
4. Claremont-Mudd-Scripps (B)
5. UW-Eau Claire (C)
6. St. John's (A)
7. Coe (A)
We don't expect the 4/5 game to be close. We actually break the mold here
as well, by seeding a once-beaten team (UW-Stout) above an unbeaten team
(Claremont-Mudd-Scripps).
We have to talk about Pool B, specifically our selection of both Salisbury and Claremont-Mudd-Scripps. These are easy picks to make now because it's still early. And the committee has never snubbed an unbeaten team for a Pool B bid, but they have had very few situations like this, a team with a sub-.300 strength of schedule going unbeaten. We anticipate at least one of those two teams will lose.
Our next two choices would be Washington & Jefferson and Pacific Lutheran. Washington & Jefferson didn't make this cut because they lost to a team that is currently below .500. Alma got the nod because they have beaten a possible playoff team in Wheaton.
We'll discuss Pool C in more depth next week. The decision for the final spot (Muhlenberg) came down to strength of schedule.