Projecting the playoffs

This is always an inexact science. But hey, it's fun!

Here's our best guess at the Field of 28, updated Nov. 7. This is just a guess. This is how we feel the committee would choose and pair the teams if they made their decision today. 

We could certainly name these brackets North, South, East and West, but since teams can move into a bracket that is not part of their region, it's better to just name the brackets as we have traditionally — after their top seed. The NCAA refers to them as Bracket 1, Bracket 2, etc.

Teams in bold have clinched playoff spots. We are projecting some automatic bid winners and not others, depending on how it would affect seedings. We realize that many conference races are still up in the air. Don't get your knickers in a twist if we've named someone else as a winner in your conference.

The Rowan Bracket
1. Rowan (A)
2. Westfield State (A)
3. Hobart (B)
4. Salisbury (B)
5. Springfield (A)
6. Muhlenberg (C)
7. RPI (B)
Ithaca dropped out of playoff consideration, and those of you looking for Brockport State will find them in another bracket. Rowan finally gets the bye it has deserved as the top team in this bracket over the last four seasons. Westfield State is unbeaten and untested — usually that's enough to get a top seed in this bracket. Hobart has to be above all the teams with one loss as well. We have to break the brackets apart a little bit here for travel, and we'll send RPI to Westfield, Springfield to Hobart and Muhlenberg to Salisbury.

The Bridgewater Bracket
1. Bridgewater (A)
2. Trinity (A)
3. UMHB (A)
4. McDaniel (A)
5. King's (A)
6. Claremont-Mudd-Scripps (B)
7. Ferrum (A)
Huh? Yes, this bracket has a Pennsylvania team, two Texas teams and a California team. But this actually eliminates one of our airline flights from last week, where we had a flight for CMS and two for the Texas games. Now we combine CMS with Texas. We think it's worth it. Ferrum to Trinity and CMS to UMHB, and the odds would be with the committee getting a second-round game between Trinity and UMHB that doesn't require an airplane at all.

The Mount Union Bracket
1. Mount Union (A)
2. Wabash (A)
3. Hanover (A)
4. John Carroll (C)
5. Augustana (A)
6. Alma (B)
7. Brockport State (B)
Brockport is the furthest west of the traditional East Region teams we selected, so they slide in here. Since the NCAA extended the driving radius to 500 miles last winter, Brockport can go to either John Carroll or Alma. And if they win, they go to Mount Union, also a drive.

The Linfield Bracket
1. Linfield (B)
2. St. Norbert (A)
3. UW-Stout (A)
4. UW-Eau Claire (C)
5. MacMurray (A)
6. St. John's (A)
7. Coe (A)
Again, the 500-mile radius allows us to send MacMurray to Eau Claire. St. John's goes to Stout and again we avoid the rematch with Eau Claire. And we get a reunion of former Midwest Conference rivals in the 2-7 game.

We've struggled over how to pick Pool C. The strength of schedule listings will change rather significantly over the final two weeks of the season. Among the nine legitimate Pool C candidates, the one with the best strength of schedule, Wheaton, will not actually get a Pool C bid. If they win out, they will get the CCIW's automatic bid, while a loss will be their second.

Our logic remains the same as last week. UW-Eau Claire is the only team in contention that has beaten another playoff team (St. John's). John Carroll gets in on the "only loss to Mount Union" clause. That leaves one spot for Howard Payne, Muhlenberg, Wartburg, Widener, Wittenberg and Wooster.

Of those teams, two have opponents' record below .500, Howard Payne and Widener. Muhlenberg's is by far the highest at .592. That's why they are our third selection. Wooster actually follows at .534, then Wittenberg at .515 and Wartburg at .500. Wooster and Wittenberg play in Week 11, so one can knock the other off.

For the St. John's fans who are confused as to why they are seeded so low, here's the selection criteria the committee uses and how they apply in this situation:

The committee will select teams based on regional competition. The
committee will review all of the following primary criteria:
. In-region winning percentage;
. In-region head-to-head results;
. Results against common opponents;
. Strength of schedule as demonstrated by in-region opponents'
winning percentage and strength-of-schedule index; and
. Results against in-region teams already in the tournament.

Note: The committee will review all criteria in the order listed. A team may have an excellent winning percentage; however, the selection process does not stop at this one criterion. All of the primary criteria will be examined.

4. Pairings
A. Once the automatic qualifiers are identified and the Pools B and C teams selected, teams will be seeded using regional criteria and then grouped into competition brackets according to natural geographic proximity. Teams will be paired utilizing seeding and according to geographic policies. Geographic proximity takes precedence over seeding. It is the intent of the committee to create four competition brackets with a maximum of seven teams competing in each bracket. Flights will be kept to a minimum.

It is our examination of the criteria that has brought us to that determination.

Linfield, St. Norbert and MacMurray would all have a 1.000 in-region winning percentage.

UW-Stout and UW-Eau Claire would each have one regional loss, the same as St. John's.

Eau Claire beat St. John's head-to-head.

UW-Stout beat Eau Claire, while St. John's did not.

Hence, St. John's would be behind all five of them.

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