Projecting the playoffs

The playoff basics Twenty-eight teams will form four seven-team brackets and the top team in each will get a bye. And we know the champions of 19 conferences will get an automatic bid to the playoffs. Three runners-up in those conferences will get what are called Pool C bids, and seven bids (Pool B) will go to independents or members of non-automatic conferences. So how will the brackets be formed, who will play whom? That's what we answer each week from here until Selection Sunday.

This is always an inexact science. But hey, it's fun!

Here's our best guess at the Field of 28, updated Nov. 5. This is just a guess.

Part of this is how we feel the committee would choose and pair the teams. Part of this is how we feel they should choose and pair the teams. This would be if they made their decision today. And with regional rankings returning this season, much of this process is made easier.

We could certainly name these brackets North, South, East and West, but since teams can move into a bracket that is not part of their region, it's better to just name the brackets as we have traditionally — after their top seed. The NCAA refers to them as Bracket 1, Bracket 2, etc.

Teams in bold have clinched playoff spots. We are projecting some automatic bid winners and not others, depending on how it would affect seedings. We realize that many conference races are still up in the air.

The Springfield Bracket
1. Springfield (A)
2. Ithaca (B)
3. Brockport State (B)
4. RPI (B)
5. Montclair State (B)
6. New Jersey (B)
7. Curry/Westfield State (A)
Look at this, seven East teams in the East bracket, something which doesn't end up happening most years. Obviously, there's a good chance Brockport State will not tie New Jersey this weekend, which would jigger the pairings. Otherwise, this bracket's travel is straightforward: NEFC winner at Ithaca, New Jersey at Brockport State, Montclair State at RPI.

The Mary Hardin-Baylor Bracket
1. Mary Hardin-Baylor (A)
2. Christopher Newport (A)
3. Bridgewater (A)
4. Delaware Valley (A)
5. Lycoming (C)
6. Trinity (Texas) (A)
7. Muhlenberg (A)
Sorry, undefeated gets the first-round bye in our book, regardless of what the regional rankings might say. Besides, UMHB's strength of schedule rating would increase in the final two weeks as well, while Christopher Newport's will backslide slightly. Of course after last year's penny-pinching expect the committee to still give the first-round bye to CNU. While it wouldn't make for the competitive imbalance their machinations did last year, it's still a sad statement about what's truly important to the NCAA.

The Mount Union Bracket
1. Mount Union (A)
2. Wheaton (A)
3. Baldwin-Wallace (C)
4. Concordia (Wis.) (A)
5. Hope (A)
6. Hanover/Mt. St. Joseph (A)
7. Allegheny (A)
Yes, we checked, and Allegheny can indeed drive to Wheaton, not requiring a flight. If Augustana were to win the CCIW instead of Wheaton, they'd probably be seeded fourth, ahead of Hope, with a similar record and a win against common opponent Wheaton. However, since Concordia would be required to fly to Mount Union or Baldwin-Wallace, we should break up this bracket anyway. So, unless Hope wins, we'd have to send Baldwin-Wallace to Mount Union in the second round. Sorry, guys.

The St. John's Bracket
1. St. John's/Bethel (A)
2. Linfield (B)
3. Wartburg (A)
4. St. Norbert (A)
5. WIAC champ (A)
6. Bethel/St. John's (C)
7. SCIAC champ (A)
We considered putting St. Norbert in the North to even out that bracket but that travel wasn't any better than Concordia's would have been. Seeds hold out: SCIAC goes to Linfield, MIAC runner-up goes to Wartburg and the WIAC champ to St. Norbert.

The next Pool B teams are Waynesburg, Rowan, Washington & Jefferson, Willamette and Salisbury. Our other Pool C candidates were Hampden-Sydney, Johns Hopkins and Simpson, among others.