Projecting the playoffs

The playoff basics Twenty-eight teams will form four seven-team brackets and the top team in each will get a bye. And we know the champions of 19 conferences will get an automatic bid to the playoffs. Three runners-up in those conferences will get what are called Pool C bids, and seven bids (Pool B) will go to independents or members of non-automatic conferences. So how will the brackets be formed, who will play whom? That's what we answer each week from here until Selection Sunday.

This is always an inexact science. But hey, it's fun!

Here's our best guess at the Field of 28, updated Nov. 5. This is just a guess.

Part of this is how we feel the committee would choose and pair the teams. Part of this is how we feel they should choose and pair the teams. This would be if they made their decision today. When these missions differ, we'll tell you why. And with regional rankings returning this season, much of this process is made easier.

We could certainly name these brackets North, South, East and West, but since teams can move into a bracket that is not part of their region, it's better to just name the brackets as we have traditionally — after their top seed. The NCAA refers to them as Bracket 1, Bracket 2, etc.

The Springfield Bracket
1. Springfield (A)
2. Brockport State (B)
3. Montclair State (B)
4. Curry (A)
5. Ithaca (B)
6. RPI (B)
7. Muhlenberg (A)
Some of the biggest questions are answered right here: Is Ithaca still in? (Yes, we think.) Is RPI still in (Yes, we think.) Ithaca at two losses makes our field. We're taking a big leap of faith here, because in the past the committee has not taken any two-loss teams before any one-loss teams. We aren't really leaving any one-loss teams out, but we are leaving out some one-regional loss teams. Ithaca's 2-1 record against regionally ranked teams won us over in several head-to-head comparisons (vs. Rowan, TCNJ, Washington & Jefferson, etc.). Muhlenberg moves over here, although we also considered Lycoming, which is moving to the East region in 2004 if the paperwork goes through. The losses give Curry a home game, although we do not know if they have an acceptable facility, so that game could move to Ithaca.

The Bridgewater Bracket
1. Bridgewater (A)
2. Christopher Newport (A)
3. Lycoming (A)
4. East Texas Baptist (A)
5. Mary Hardin-Baylor (C)
6. Waynesburg (B)
7. Trinity (Texas) (A)
You're going to love this one. Three Texas teams and not one gets a bye, although we remember last year's penny-pinching and figure it's possible the NCAA will give East Texas Baptist a bye just to save a little scratch. But the matchups here are interesting. First, we have the traditional 4/7 game between Trinity and ETBU. Then the always-popular 5/3 game between Mary Hardin-Baylor and Lycoming. Wrap up with the storied 6/2 game between Waynesburg and Christopher Newport. That's the way this should be. But we fully expect ETBU awaiting the winner of UMHB and Trinity, with No. 3 Lycoming at No. 2 Christopher Newport and No. 6 Waynesburg at No. 1 Bridgewater. And should Bridgewater get the top seed as opposed to the team they lost to, Christopher Newport? Maybe not, but CNU lost to Ferrum. Enough said.

The Mount Union Bracket
1. Mount Union (A)
2. Wheaton (A)
3. Baldwin-Wallace (C)
4. Concordia (Wis.) (A)
5. Hanover (A)
6. Hope (A)
7. Allegheny (A)
Finally, an easy bracket. Only Hope lost this week, so we bump them (5-3 in-region) down and Hanover (7-1) up. Bus distances still work for traditional seeding matchups.

The St. John's Bracket
1. St. John's (A)
2. Linfield (B)
3. Wartburg (A)
4. UW-La Crosse (A)
5. St. Norbert (A)
6. Bethel (C)
7. Redlands (A)
We traded spaces between the WIAC champ and St. Norbert based on UW-La Crosse picking up a little in the strength of schedule index with the win against UW-Whitewater, as well as a win against a regionally ranked opponent. That's something St. Norbert doesn't have.

Our Pool B runners-up were relatively distant ones: Rowan, TCNJ and Washington & Jefferson failed to distinguish themselves. W&J looked decent in the primary criteria but when you look at the secondary criteria, they pick up today's painful home loss to 2-8 Buffalo State, which not only kills the SOS, it gives them a common opponent that Ithaca beat.

Much as the committee does, we decided on Pool C candidates by region, based on the regional rankings. Baldwin-Wallace was the only team that really trumped everyone else, so they were the first in. From the regional rankings, Mary Hardin-Baylor was next on the board, with a win against a regionally ranked opponent, plus another one lurking out of region in the secondary criteria.

That left us with four candidates: Bethel, Simpson, Johns Hopkins and Hampden-Sydney. We couldn't really figure out why the committee had HSC so much higher in the regional rankings, unless it's the fact that HSC was 0-1 against regionally ranked opponents, while JHU was 0-0. JHU had what we felt was a significantly better SOS index, but that wasn't much different than the previous week. Similarly with Bethel and Simpson, who seemed pretty identical all the way down. Bethel isn't affected by the secondary criteria. Simpson could see a slight gain from beating Washington U. But, Bethel has been ranked higher in the regional poll and that doesn't change after today, we don't think.

So, for the final slot, we put up Bethel from the West and Hampden-Sydney from the South. Obviously, there was no head-to-head meeting or common opponent. Both finished 0-1 against regionally ranked opponents. Bethel had a measurable edge in SOS, similar to playing one better class of opponent on three occasions over the course of the season, or playing the same schedule but almost all of it on the road. This was borne out in the teams' one loss — Hampden-Sydney lost at home to Bridgewater, while Bethel lost at St. John's, in equally close games.

So we took Bethel.

And really, this reflects the informal criteria as well. Because Bethel lost to the better team.