Picture somewhat focused

Here's what we're looking at this week. As we mentioned, Pool B had some precipitous calamaties this week, starting with Hardin-Simmons' declaration of a player ineligible. Everyone we've talked to who has dealt with the NCAA on such matters has indicated that the 17 games he played in will likely be forfeited, dropping them from the running. A decision is expected later this week, possibly Wednesday. Then Ithaca and Buffalo State each picked up its second loss, meaning their meeting this week will give one its third loss, effectively dropping the loser from contention.

Here's our best guess at the Field of 28, updated Nov. 10. This is just a guess. We know the conference races are undecided, but we've plugged in the current leader in the 15 automatic conferences, so don't write me and ask about Massachusetts Maritime or any of those teams in the MIAC involved in the potential five-way tie (which St. Thomas would win). This is how we feel the committee would choose and pair the teams if they made their decision today. We have attempted to follow the same guidelines the committee will use to rank these teams.

These are the teams and the pool they come from. Teams in bold have clinched a playoff spot.

The East Bracket
1. Rowan (B)
2. Lycoming (A)
3. Western Connecticut (A)
4. RPI (B)
5. Ithaca/Buffalo State winner (B)
6. NEFC Champ (A)
7. Ursinus (C)
The committee might actually seed Ursinus above the NEFC champ, but for travel purposes these would undoubtedly be the matchups they would choose.

The South Bracket
1. Trinity (A)
2. Western Maryland (A)
3. Catholic (A)
4. McMurry (B)
5. Washington U. (B)
6. Ohio Northern (C)
7. Washington & Jefferson (B)
This is still a mess. Someone from the North Bracket has to come play over here because there are eight natural North teams in our field. None of them is a good travel fit. However, I've decided to take a Pool C team and send them to the nation's capital because as long as someone from the North has to fly, they might as well fly to a city with major air access. The NCAA has done this before.

The North Bracket
1. Mount Union (A)
2. Wittenberg (A)
3. Hanover (A)
4. Wheaton/Augustana (A)
5. St. Norbert (A)
6. Alma (A)
7. Aurora (B)
Conventional wisdom actually has Alma going to the CCIW champ, but that causes a travel problem. The only team St. Norbert can reach in this bracket without flying is the CCIW champ, leaving Alma to travel to Hanover. Hanover is 399.7 miles from Alma, according to Yahoo!'s driving directions. The minimum distance required to fly? Four hundred miles.

The West Bracket
1. Wartburg (A)
2. St. John's (A)
3. Pacific Lutheran (B)
4. UW-La Crosse (A)
5. Central (C)
6. Redlands (B)
7. UW-Stevens Point (C)
This is just a reminder that the AFCA poll has NO bearing on the playoff seedings, and we believe Wartburg, as the only undefeated team remaining out West, will get the bye. They are just as deserving as the AFCA's No. 4 team, Lycoming. Why? Compare their non-conference records: Each is 0-0.

What's new here? After looking at Washington U.'s strength of schedule versus that of some others in the field, I've decided to give a Pool B bid to the Bears. Their opponents' winning percentage is .540. (Westminster? .300. Pomona-Pitzer? .265) And I've grudgingly given one to Redlands, since one of their two losses is against NAIA No. 9 Azusa Pacifc. The other, regrettably, was a shutout of one of the top offenses in Division III. This could hurt their bid. Opponents' winning percentage? .446

Washington & Jefferson? Hanging on. If Montclair State were to beat Rowan it would actually help this bracket. We could move Ursinus back into its home South Region, move Ohio Northern back to the North and possibly St. Norbert to the West. And Lycoming could be the East's No. 1 seed. A Rowan-at-Lycoming rematch? I'd be there.

What's important to understand is 1) there's one week of football yet to be played and 2) we don't know how the committee will act in the first year of this system.

And here's a look at the Pool B teams with two losses or fewer, courtesy Frank Rossi:

3 Undefeated Teams

6 One-Loss Teams

10 Two-Loss Teams

We'll do this again on a weekly basis until the selections are announced Nov. 14. And when we find out more we will post it. These are just our opinions, take them as such.