Regarding Pool C

Many deserving conference runners-up are competing for four spots in Pool C. This week, let's take a quick look at the main conference contenders.

Likely candidates
IOWA: The loser of Saturday's Central/Wartburg game seems destined to get one of these four bids. But that's not cut and dried. If Wartburg beats Central and Buena Vista (7-1) beats Central Nov. 13. Central's out of the picture and Buena Vista would have a strong Pool C claim. If Central beats Wartburg and loses to Buena Vista and the teams each finish 9-1, the IIAC has to go to a tiebreaker to name the Pool A team. The committee could then choose either runner-up as the second IIAC team, if they take one.

OHIO: Mount Union is in, even if they haven't mathematically clinched yet. That will come Saturday. The second spot, which seems like a lock, comes down to Ohio Northern vs. John Carroll this week. If ONU wins out and finishes 9-1 they are a virtual lock. Even with a win, John Carroll has troubles at 8-2. The loss to Mount Union doesn't hurt, but the loss to Baldwin-Wallace certainly does. On Carroll's side, however, is a season-opening win at likely ODAC champion Catholic.

WISCONSIN: UW-La Crosse (5-3, 5-1 WIAC) has the inside track at the championship now, with a head-to-head win against co-leader Stevens Point (7-1, 5-1) and one conference game remaining against Oshkosh (3-5, 2-4). If La Crosse wins out, Stevens Point could get a Pool C bid. But wait a second -- Stevens Point has to play Division II Bemidji State (7-3) at the Metrodome at 2:30 CST on Selection Sunday. It will be interesting to see how the selection committee plays this out, considering the selection announcements have traditionally taken place in the morning...

MINNESOTA: This conference is in a mess. No fewer than FIVE of the 10 schools still have a shot at the championship, which might come down to the Nov. 12 game between St. John's and Gustavus Adolphus in the Metrodome in Minneapolis. If St. John's wins out they will win the automatic bid. The conference's best shot at a second bid is Concordia-Moorhead, which has two losses, one to Division II Moorhead State (6-3) and one to St. John's. If anyone else wins out, St. John's has a shot at a Pool C bid with two Division III losses, but not a great one.

CENTENNIAL: Ursinus has a good shot at a Pool C bid if they win out and finish 9-1. That would include a non-conference win against Wilkes, a runner-up in the MAC, though non-conference wins against Waynesburg (4-3) and Lebanon Valley (2-6) won't wow anyone.

Only if there's an upset
CCIW: Another conference with a shot at two bids, this could take place only if current leader Wheaton loses at home to Augustana Nov. 13, thereby losing the conference title. If Wheaton beats Augustana then the Vikings have two losses and are out.

HEARTLAND: Leader Hanover has yet to play second-place Wabash, and if Wabash wins they would finish 6-1 in HCAC play. The best Hanover could finish would be 6-1, and 9-1 overall. Hanover would be an excellent Pool C candidate. Now, Wilmington could also finish 9-1, 6-1, with a loss to Hanover and a win against Wabash, creating a three-way tie. Regardless of the tie-breaker, neither Wabash or Wilmington is a particularly strong Pool C candidate. For Wabash it's because of the three losses and for Wilmington it's because of the fact that their three non-conference wins are against Olivet (0-8), Urbana (1-8) and Adrian (2-6).

MICHIGAN: Albion is leading the conference at 6-2, 5-0. They play Alma (7-1, 4-1) Nov. 6. And Hope (3-4, 3-1) is in the mix at well unless they lose to conference cellar-dwellers Kalamazoo or Olivet. The tie-breaker in this league is overall record, which is Alma's. If Alma loses to Albion it would be over -- a 62-7 loss to Hope certainly won't impress the committee.

NORTH COAST: Wooster and Wittenberg play the last week of the season. Wooster needs a win to get in, but Wittenberg can get in with a loss.

MIDDLE ATLANTIC: The MAC isn't wrapped up yet, thanks to the two-division setup. The winner of the game between the champions of its two divisions will get the AQ. Lycoming pretty much has its division wrapped up, barring a shocking loss to FDU-Madison in the season finale. They play Susquehanna, the leader of the other division, on Saturday. If Lyco loses this game they could get a Pool C bid.

SOUTHERN: Can Sewanee beat Trinity Saturday? If so, they're in and Trinity is about the best lock for a runner-up bid as there is. But don't worry too much about this scenario.

Here's our best guess at the Field of 28, updated Nov. 3. This is just a guess. We know the conference races are undecided, but we've plugged in the current leader in the 15 automatic conferences, so don't write me and ask about Alma or Massachusetts Maritime or any of those other teams in the MIAC. This is how we feel the committee would choose and pair the teams if they made their decision today. And a tough decision that would be — this was much more difficult than last week, with the losses across the bracket.

The brackets as we knew them are dead, so I've named them by their top seed. These are the teams and the pool they come from. Teams in bold have clinched a playoff spot.

The Rowan Bracket
1. Rowan (B)
2. Lycoming (A)
3. Western Connecticut (A)
4. Ithaca (B)
5. Buffalo State (B)
6. RPI (B)
7. NEFC Champ (A)

The Trinity Bracket
1. Trinity (A)
2. Western Maryland (A)
3. Hardin-Simmons (B)
4. Catholic (A)
5. Ohio Northern (C)
6. McMurry (B)
7. Washington & Jefferson (B)
Note how we've cleverly slid McMurry in to play Hardin-Simmons in the first round. But one will lose in Week 11.

The Mount Union Bracket
1. Mount Union (A)
2. Wittenberg (A)
3. Wheaton (A)
4. Hanover (A)
5. St. Norbert (A)
6. Albion (A)
7. CCIW runner-up or UW-Stevens Point (C)
If UW-Stevens Point makes the field, they would be seeded higher than No. 7.

The Central Bracket
1. Central (A)
2. St. John's (A)
3. Pacific Lutheran (B)
4. UW-La Crosse (A)
5. Wartburg (C)
6. CCIW or MIAC runner-up (C)
7. Aurora (B)

What's new here? I'm letting Buffalo State and Ithaca play out. They play each other the last week of the season anyway, so one will likely eliminate the other. Another name that has come up of late is Washington U., which certainly has two impressive losses, but it's wins that are important here. Their best hope is if Wabash (see above) wins the HCAC, which would give the Bears a win against a playoff opponent.

Let's welcome McMurry to the Pool B fold this week after the second loss by Frostburg State. They host conference leader Hardin-Simmons the last week of the season, and the way HSU has been looking of late, they might not make the playoffs if they lose to McMurry.

So, losses by either Ithaca or Buffalo State and McMurry and Hardin-Simmons in Week 11 could make or break the Pool B hopes of teams such as Washington & Jefferson, Frostburg State, Aurora and La Verne.

What's important to understand is 1) there's two weeks of football yet to be played and 2) we don't know how the committee will act in the first year of this system.

Now to the rumors. It's been said that the committee doesn't know how it's going to match brackets in the semifinals. Also, it's been floated that the committee might not even know where it's going to match up the first and second rounds. That seems unlikely. We do fully expect to see some juggling of the first-round matchups to eliminate air travel, perhaps with an eye to second-round travel possibilities as well.

Taking a further look at Pool B, here's how they rank in the AFCA Top 25. It must be noted that the Top 25 poll has no bearing whatsoever on the selection procedure, but it's one way we have to compare across regions. (Courtesy Pacific correspondent Dennis Anderson)

And of the Pool B teams with two losses or fewer, here's a look at who they have left of their schedule, courtesy Frank Rossi, frossi@law.harvard.edu

3 Undefeated Teams

9 One-Loss Teams

8 Two-Loss Teams

We'll do this again on a weekly basis until the selections are announced Nov. 14. And when we find out more we will post it. These are just our opinions, take them as such.