The key is, nobody knows

This year Division III debuts a playoff system by which 28 teams will battle for the Stagg Bowl title and the national championship. But we know very little about that process.

We know 28 teams will form four seven-team brackets and the top team in each will get a bye. And we know the champions of 15 conferences will get an automatic bid to the playoffs.

The four-region system as we know it is dead. That's why you haven't seen a regional poll this year. So how will the brackets be formed, who will play whom? Who will get the nine Pool B bids that go to independents and champions of non-automatic conferences? Who will get the four Pool C bids that go to the runners-up of automatic conferences?

Here's our best guess at the Field of 28, updated Oct. 21. This is just a guess. We know the conference races are undecided, but we've plugged in the current leader in the 15 automatic conferences, so don't write me and ask about Hope or Massachusetts Maritime or any of those 4-1 teams in the MIAC.

The brackets as we knew them are dead, so I've named them by their top seed. These are the teams and the pool they come from, starting with...

The Rowan Bracket
1. Rowan (B)
2. Lycoming (A)
3. Western Maryland (A)
4. Ithaca (B)
5. Freedom Football Conference champ (Western Conn. or WPI) (A)
6. RPI (B)
7. New England Football Conference champ (A)

The Trinity Bracket
1. Trinity (A)
2. Hardin-Simmons (B)
3. Catholic (A)
4. Frostburg State (B)
5. Washington & Jefferson (B)
6. NCAC runner-up (C)
7. Westminster (B)

The Mount Union Bracket
1. Mount Union (A)
2. Wittenberg (A)
3. Millikin/Wheaton winner (A)
4. Hanover (A)
5. St. Norbert (A)
6. Albion (A)
7. Ohio Northern (C)

The Central Bracket
1. Central (A)
2. UW-Stevens Point (A)
3. St. John's (A)
4. La Verne (B)
5. Pacific Lutheran (B)
6. Wartburg (C)
7. Millikin/Wheaton loser (C)

Who's left out in this deal? Well, Montclair State is out, unles they can beat Rowan. Buffalo State is out unless RPI falters. The Illini-Badger champ is not a consideration unless Westminster loses again.

What's important to understand is 1) there's four weeks of football yet to be played and 2) we don't know how the committee will act in the first year of this system. Will the committee prefer a weak conference's champion, like Westminster, over the much better runner-up of the NJAC? And Pool C bids -- who will get them? Will the second MIAC team beat out the second CCIW team? Etc.

Now to the rumors. It's been said that the committee doesn't know how it's going to match brackets in the semifinals. Also, it's been floated that the committee might not even know where it's going to match up the first and second rounds. That seems unlikely. We do fully expect to see some juggling of the first-round matchups to eliminate air travel. That's what we tried to do with La Verne and Pacific Lutheran, though they are indeed too far apart.

We'll do this again on a weekly basis until the selections are announced Nov. 14. And when we find out more we will post it. These are just our opinions, take them as such.