Cody House and his Ursinus teammates are one of this weekend's UBARCC. Ursinus athletics photo by Donovan Dyitt

The Division III football regular season starts its final month and game results start to have clear consequences. We’re keeping our eyes on potential playoff knockout games in the WIAC and the CCIW. Undefeated conference leaders square off in the ARC, the Centennial, and the CNE. It’s also a good time to check in on the nation’s most prolific scorers, and at least three more teams are going to pick up their first wins on Saturday. Our panel of experts tackles all of that and more in this week’s Quick Hits!

Our regular crew is Greg Thomas, Patrick Coleman, Frank Rossi, Logan Hansen, and Riley Zayas.

— Greg Thomas

Which game is the Game of the Week?

	Greg's take: No. 11 Endicott at Western New England. The frontrunners in the Conference of New England clash this weekend. Endicott has won the last three games in the series, and consequently the last three conference championships. The Golden Bears are preparing a whiteout for their guests. It’s still early in CNE play, but the season is getting late. The winner of this one has the inside track to the NCAA playoffs, the loser likely to play in the Fusion Bowl.  The last two contests between these two have been decided by 3 and 5 points, respectively. Expect another close game this weekend.
	Patrick's take: So many important games on Saturday, including games involving unranked Bears against ranked conference counterparts, and I'm picking No. 25 Wheaton at Washington U. Wheaton has its starting quarterback back after a one-game absence, and that should help in what is more or less a playoff elimination game.
	Frank's take: Both No. 19 UW-Whitewater at No. 8 UW-Platteville and No. 10 UW-River Falls at No. 22 UW-La Crosse. The reason is that these two games will have an epic effect on NPI opportunities, especially for bubble teams. A Whitewater or La Crosse loss would likely be elimination for those teams (not definitively, but they would be, for a time, on the outside looking in). River Falls and Platteville both need wins, though, to really get a foothold after the Pioneers’ loss to Oshkosh and after the Kaleb Blaha injury has created real questions for the Falcons.
	Logan's take: Take your pick! The usual high stakes games in the WIAC & PAC? A Pool C elimination game in the CCIW? Or de facto conference title games in the ARC & CC? I'm somewhat partial to No. 13 Wartburg at Coe. These games have been extremely tight for a few years now, and with the lack of offense in either team's games against Central (15 total offensive points in regulation), I wouldn't expect either team to run away with this one.
	Riley's take: No. 19 UW-Whitewater at No. 8 UW-Platteville. At this point, almost every WIAC matchup is intriguing for one reason or another. But this features a Whitewater team playing with its playoff hopes on the line and a Platteville squad coming off a narrow loss at Oshkosh, snapping what was a five-game win streak. How does Platteville respond after the loss, a contest that saw the Pioneer offense held to 23 points below their scoring average? How does Whitewater handle the pressure in what will be a difficult road environment? Stellar defense should be the main storyline in this one, as both defenses rank in the Top 2 in the WIAC in total defense. That said, watch the matchup between the Whitewater offensive line and Platteville's D-Line, considering the pride both squads take in their line play. Platteville leads the WIAC in sacks, while UWW's O-Line has given up the fewest sacks of any team in the league.

Which Top 25 team is most likely to be upset?

	Greg's take: No. 23 Johns Hopkins. There are not many major statistical categories in this matchup that favor the Blue Jays. Ursinus is the unranked team in this matchup, but are probably the favorite to win regardless of where the game is played.  That Ursinus is hosting the game only helps. If the Bears can replicate their performances so far this season, and Hopkins is unable to match the Ursinus offense, we could be looking at a Centennial coronation at Patterson Field on Saturday.
	Patrick's take: No. 23 Johns Hopkins. This is another unranked Bears against ranked conference counterpart game. The UBARCC games both feature teams who have a high likelihood of pulling off the upsets, and I'm picking Ursinus because the Blue Jays have been pretty banged up and inconsistent.
	Frank's take: No. 13 Wartburg (at Coe). Kohawks fans may be disgruntled about their treatment from podcast with the initials ATN and ITH, but here is a true opportunity to gain national respect for the team. With Wartburg just nudging out Central earlier this season on the road, and Coe being a slightly stronger team than Central, the opportunity for the upset is somewhat 50/50. I’ll take the home team in the coin flip here.
	Logan's take: Three Top 25 teams this week have single digit spreads against unranked opponents: No. 25 Wheaton (-2.7 vs. WashU), No. 13 Wartburg (-1.3 vs. Coe), and Johns Hopkins (+0.9 vs. Ursinus). Among those, No. 23 Johns Hopkins is the only outright underdog, and is the only team playing without their starting quarterback. Ursinus's defense isn't going to be the best that backup QB James Rinello has played against in Bay Harvey's absence, but their offense is going to make it harder to keep pace than either F&M or Rowan did.
	Riley's take: No. 13 Wartburg (at Coe). The Kohawks have a great opportunity, playing at home and carrying a seven-game win streak. These are the A-R-C's lone undefeated teams in league play, and the last two meetings between the two programs have been decided by six points or fewer. I think this one ultimately comes down to how effective Coe is through the air. We know how well the Kohawks run the ball, but the strength of Wartburg's defense is in stopping the run. However, Wartburg has some weaknesses against the pass, and if Coe QB Clay Krousie is able to take advantage of those, the Kohawks should be in position to claim the win.

Ethan Gallo, A.J. Jackson, and Chance Strickland lead the nation with 90 points scored. Who scores the most this week?

	Greg's take: A.J Jackson scores in a lot of different ways and Ethan Gallo has scored the most recently, but Hope’s Chance Strickland scored three touchdowns last year against Adrian and I expect a big workload for Hope’s workhorse in this game against an Adrian team that is just one game back in the MIAA standings.
	Patrick's take: Great question. A.J. Jackson has been pretty consistent this season and I'll give him the nod here.
	Frank's take: A.J. Jackson — the facts that he’s a running back at key times and can catch passes for deep TDs make him my favorite here against a Ripon team that has been inconsistent on defense, at best.
	Logan's take: As a team, Cortland is projected to score about 20 more points than Hope and 25 more than Lake Forest. But, A.J. Jackson scores a higher proportion of his team's points than either of the other two. Still, when in doubt, trust in base rates. More scoring opportunities gives the nod to Ethan Gallo.
	Riley's take: Cortland's Ethan Gallo. The Red Dragons are heavy favorites against St. John Fisher, and this appears to be a particularly favorable matchup for Gallo as a running back. Not only has Cortland scored 68% of its red zone TDs on the ground, but SJF is 189th in the country in rushing defense and 139th in scoring defense. Against similarly tiered defenses, we've seen Gallo rush for 3-plus TDs four times so far. I expect he'll make it five by the end of Saturday's game.

Which under the radar game are you following?

	Greg's take: Baldwin Wallace at Marietta.  The longest active winning streak in the OAC does not belong to Mount Union, but rather Marietta. The Pioneers actually hold the second longest active win streak in the division at 11 games. Marietta’s 2024 is wildly back loaded and this week kicks off the critical stretch that will determine Marietta’s postseason fate. Baldwin Wallace clings to faint playoff hopes which makes this a must win for any chance at a return to the postseason.
	Patrick's take: Gustavus Adolphus at No. 3 St. John's. Not that this game can be super under the radar, but the Johnnies are not likely to have forgotten last year's loss in St. Peter.
	Frank's take: Union at Hobart. Despite Union’s struggles this season, this is one of those games in which we’ll learn if Hobart is for real after the Ithaca win or just caught the Bombers at the right time with their QB issues. The Dutchmen are looking for a signature win under new Head Coach Jon Drach, and here’s their opportunity on the road.
	Logan's take: Grinnell at Knox. Grinnell is one of the harder places to win in D-III, and while they still only have one game in the win column this year, they've shown improvement. A year ago, they lost to the top 3 teams in the MWC by an average score of 70-2, and this season the first of two of those games averaged 46-15. With three winnable games left, including this one at Knox, Grinnell could have more than two wins for the first time in a decade.
	Riley's take: McMurry at Texas Lutheran. The SCAC doesn't have an AQ to the playoffs this year, and it doesn't appear likely that either will be at the forefront of the Pool C conversation. But in all likelihood, the SCAC title will be determined in this one, which is a big deal for both programs. McMurry, coming off a near upset against Hardin-Simmons, is 4-0 in SCAC play. TLU is 4-1. The last meeting between the two on Sept. 21 saw McMurry win at home, but with TLU now at home and its offense clicking, the tables could turn in the Bulldogs' favor.

Two games feature teams playing with 3-3 records. Pick the winners of these Game 7s featuring Alfred at Utica and Cornell at Chicago..

	Greg's take: Both of the road teams are going to be underdogs in these matchups, but I think one of the road teams will get it done. I’ll take Utica to handle business at home.  The Pioneers have been a much better side at home this year.  Cornell made Monmouth sweat last week and I’ll take the Rams to score the upset victory at Stagg Field.
	Patrick's take: Game 7 means every pitcher is available, right? Utica and Chicago (White Sox aside) have better pitching than Alfred and Cornell, which is as good a reason as any.
	Frank's take: Utica wins with a bounce-back performance after another close game at Morrisville last week, and Chicago gains momentum heading toward their eventual Week 11 meeting vs. Lake Forest.
	Logan's take: Utica (relatively comfortably) and Chicago (slightly less comfortably).
	Riley's take: I'm going to take both home teams, with Utica defeating Alfred and Chicago taking down Cornell.

Game 7 is going to mean win number one for three teams. Which three teams win the matchups between winless teams?

	Greg's take: Otterbein gets it done in their second straight game against a fellow winless team. Carthage breaks through to get Matt Popino’s first win as coach of the Firebirds. And then they’re due- Hilbert notches the first win in their program’s history this weekend.
	Patrick's take: I'm going to take the home teams: Otterbein, Millikin and Hartwick.
	Frank's take: Otterbein (their game at home vs. Mount Union can’t be ignored); Millikin (they have the ability to score more points based on overall scores this season and comparing opponent strengths); Hartwick (Hilbert has scored 12 points in 7 games — I don’t know where they’ll find the points to beat the Hawks on the road).
	Logan's take: Otterbein & Millikin should win in tossups, and Hartwick should win by a TD or two.
	Riley's take: Capital @ Otterbein Carthage @ Millikin Hilbert @ Hartwick

Got picks? Put them in the comments!