/playoffs/2012/week10-playoff-projection

Week 10 playoff projection

Bethel and Concordia-Moorhead each lost last week. Would they still make our field if the season ended today?
Photo by Scott Pierson, d3photography.com 

By Pat Coleman
D3sports.com

Last week's results shuffled the regional rankings and they shuffle this projection as well.

For some of the toss-up leagues, it doesn't matter who wins in terms of our projection. That's because the runner-up is not a threat to make the playoffs and the two (or three) competitors would all have similar potential seeds.

Keep in mind that the NCAA does not want to spring for more plane flights than it has to in the first round. With four teams that must fly anywhere they go, that's a minimum of two flights. That's what I've projected. Any distance of more than 500 miles requires the NCAA to pay for a flight. Everything else can be done by bus.

Here's how it looks.

Wesley is the only team that has nothing to worry about this weekend. They're the only one-loss team in Pool B and that loss is to the top team in the region. And they're off in Week 11. Literally, nobody else has margin for error. Rowan's strength of schedule isn't very strong and the Profs have two losses, but one is to a Division II school, so they make our field as one of the seven at-large teams. Elmhurst has one overall loss and a win against a regionally ranked team, so they make it in. Heidelberg doesn't have the best strength of schedule, but we are running out of one-loss teams at this point. Of the two-loss teams on the board, Huntingdon has the second-best strength of schedule and a win against a regionally ranked team, putting them in the field. Pacific Lutheran is next -- the Lutes have two losses and both are to regionally ranked teams, plus they have a .625 strength of schedule. That's five teams in.

From here it gets difficult -- the remaining one-loss team on the board is Ohio Wesleyan, and, NCAC tiebreaker craziness aside, OWU has a .511 SOS and no wins against regionally ranked teams. Lycoming has two losses and no wins against regionally ranked teams, either. Louisiana College has two losses and a lower SOS than Lycoming. Bethel, however, has a .585 SOS, 74 points higher than Ohio Wesleyan, and that's significant. Plus they have results against regionally ranked teams, which OWU does not. Bethel gets in. The last spot is up between these four teams: Lycoming, Ohio Wesleyan, Louisiana College and Concordia-Moorhead. 

Lycoming is 7-2 in-region, with a .531 strength of schedule and is 0-1 against regionally ranked opponents (loss to East No. 2). 
Ohio Wesleyan is 8-1, with a .511 strength of schedue and is 0-1 against regionally ranked opponents.
Louisiana College is 5-2, with a .505 strength of schedule and is 0-2 against regionally ranked opponents (losses to South No. 1 and No. 2).
Concordia-Moorhead is 6-2, with a .604 strength of schedule, and is 0-2* against regionally ranked opponents (losses to West No. 3 and No. 6). Fans who have been paying attention all season know why there's an asterisk here, and who knows if it will be taken into account.

There is one one-loss team remaining here, but OWU has played just one regionally ranked team (now unranked in the North) and has a relatively low SOS. Concordia-Moorhead has an SOS that is 73 points higher than Lycoming and 93 points higher than Ohio Wesleyan. That is a statistically huge difference, and from everything we've been told, it's more than enough to overcome one loss. So Concordia-Moorhead still getting into the field after last week seems unusual, but it's possible. I feel the Cobbers have the best resume of this group, even without the asterisk.

I take those eight teams and the 24 automatic bids and break them into the best four groups of eight possible to create our brackets. With a potential of four teams in Minnesota, and one of those on the North Dakota border, the travel in the westernmost group is really difficult. That, and keeping the three MIAC teams from matching up in the first round made our Linfield bracket tricky.

Last year, remember, the NCAA threw us a wrinkle in the bracket, with shuffled pairings in the national quarterfinals. This bracket doesn't address that but as we get closer to Selection Sunday, I'll take a look at some of the more interesting possibilities.

Mount Union bracket

No. 8 USA South champ at No. 1 Mount Union
No. 5 Salisbury at No. 4 Cortland State

No. 7 ECFC champ at No. 2 Hobart
No. 6 Rowan at No. 3 Widener

The ECFC champ probably should be traveling to Mount Union but the distance is more than 500 miles. This way Hobart gets a team that really could be an eighth-seed even though it doesn't get a top seed in our projected bracket.

UW-Oshkosh bracket

No. 8 Concordia-Moorhead at No. 1 UW-Oshkosh
No. 5 Adrian at No. 4 Wittenberg

No. 7 Bethel at No. 2 Concordia-Chicago
No. 6 North Central (Ill.) at No. 3 Heidelberg

Either Adrian or Wittenberg can get to UW-Oshkosh for a second-round game in under 500 miles. (And if Concordia-Moorhead wins, that's not our problem -- the NCAA finance people only focus on the first round.) And this is a bracket where all four home teams could lose.

Mary Hardin-Baylor bracket

No. 8 St. Scholastica at No. 1 Mary Hardin-Baylor
No. 5 Franklin at No. 4 Waynesburg

No. 7 NEFC Champ at No. 2 Wesley
No. 6 Washington and Lee at No. 3 Johns Hopkins

We have five "island teams" and we can take care of them in the first round with just two flights. One of them is taking the lowest seeded team that's available and sending them to Mary Hardin-Baylor. The rest of this is fairly self-explanatory.

Linfield bracket

No. 7 Pacific Lutheran at No. 1 Linfield
No. 5 Huntingdon at No. 4 Cal Lutheran

No. 8 Lake Forest at No. 2 St. Thomas
No. 6 Coe at No. 3 Elmhurst

Back when the NCAA used to put seedings on the bracket, it used to be common to see shuffled numbers such as these. Those who are new to Division III may not have seen seedings before but they exist. 

Meanwhile, I'm not sure we need a second version of this bracket, because this is pretty true to the seedings. If the NCAA decides it needs to avoid the PLU-Linfield matchup in the first round, it could put Huntingdon on a charter flight to Linfield and Pacific Lutheran down to Cal Lutheran but that would be three flights instead of two.

Many teams are mobile in this bracket. Widener or Rowan or Salisbury could swap with Johns Hopkins or Washington and Lee fairly easily without causing too many travel issues. Losing Wabash from the field and adding Pacific Lutheran makes this easier to line up. 

None of this takes into account what might happen if Widener, Waynesburg or Cal Lutheran fail to clinch their automatic bid. Waynesburg, with a really low strength of schedule, is not guaranteed an at-large bid with one loss, while a two-loss Cal Lutheran would probably get in because of its head-to-head win against Pacific Lutheran.

We will do this one final time Saturday night, once we know all of the automatic bids.

Oct. 14: All times Eastern
Final
Salve Regina 45, at Nichols 10
Video Box Score Photos
Final
Mount Ida 14, at Dean 7
Box Score
Final
at Thomas More 59, Waynesburg 7
Video Box Score Recap
Final
at Maine Maritime 34, Coast Guard 16
Video Box Score Photos
Final
at Finlandia 27, Trinity Bible 21
Video Box Score
Final
Hamilton 28, at Bowdoin 7
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Final
at Delaware Valley 49, King's 14
Video Box Score Recap Recap
Final
at Olivet 47, Albion 26
Video Box Score Recap Photos
Final
at Wesleyan 41, Bates 23
Video Box Score Photos
Final
Union 27, at Rochester 0
Video Box Score Recap
Final
Amherst 40, at Colby 7
Video Box Score
Final
at Western New England 41, Endicott 14
Video Video Box Score Recap
Final
at Brockport 48, Morrisville State 7
Video Box Score Recap
Final - OT
at Plymouth State 16, Framingham State 13
Video Box Score Photos
Final
at RPI 27, Ithaca 14
Video Box Score Recap
Final
Hobart 49, at Hartwick 27
Video Box Score Recap Recap
Final
at Ferrum 34, LaGrange 20
Video Box Score
Final
at Carnegie Mellon 42, Geneva 27
Video Box Score
Final
Ohio Wesleyan 16, at Wabash 13
Video Box Score Recap
Final
DePauw 26, at Denison 17
Video Video Box Score Recap
Final
at Trine 42, Kalamazoo 7
Video Box Score
Final
at Washington and Lee 47, Guilford 26
Video Box Score Recap
Final
at Husson 49, Castleton 0
Box Score Recap
Final
Gallaudet 35, at Alfred State 19
Video Box Score Photos
Final
at Wittenberg 49, Allegheny 15
Video Box Score
Final
Brevard 41, at Methodist 17
Video Box Score
Final
at Lebanon Valley 31, Stevenson 24
Video Box Score Recap Recap
Final
Buffalo State 24, at St. Lawrence 21
Video Box Score Recap
Final - OT
at Cortland 20, Alfred 17
Box Score Recap Live stats
Final
at Randolph-Macon 52, Emory and Henry 29
Video Box Score
Final
at Wesley 29, Kean 9
Video Box Score Recap
Final
at Hampden-Sydney 58, Apprentice 28
Video Box Score
Final
Frostburg State 59, at William Paterson 7
Video Box Score Recap Recap
Final
at N.C. Wesleyan 45, Greensboro 0
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Final
at Westminster (Pa.) 49, Grove City 27
Video Box Score
Final
Washington and Jefferson 49, at Bethany 14
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Final
at Westminster (Mo.) 56, Crown 15
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Final
at Northwestern (Minn.) 29, Iowa Wesleyan 7
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Final
at Knox 56, Grinnell 14
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Final
at Widener 31, Lycoming 17
Video Box Score
Final
Trinity (Conn.) 23, at Tufts 16
Video Box Score Recap
Final
at Mount St. Joseph 66, Earlham 7
Video Box Score
Final - 2OT
Ohio Northern 27, at John Carroll 20
Preview Box Score Recap Photos
Final
Baldwin Wallace 23, at Muskingum 20
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Final
at Mount Union 72, Capital 14
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Final
Rose-Hulman 44, at Manchester 13
Video Box Score Recap Recap Photos
Final
at Hanover 31, Bluffton 28
Video Video Box Score
Final
Defiance 45, at Anderson 0
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Final
at Wartburg 42, Loras 11
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Final
Hiram 62, at Kenyon 56
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Final
Springfield 35, at Merchant Marine 13
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Final
Williams 27, at Middlebury 26
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Final
at Westfield State 33, Fitchburg State 21
Video Box Score Recap
Final
Marietta 43, at Wilmington 33
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Final
at Berry 34, Hendrix 10
Video Box Score Recap
Final
Curry 40, at Becker 0
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Final
TCNJ 20, at Rowan 14
Video Box Score Recap
Final
at SUNY-Maritime 51, Anna Maria 15
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Final
Salisbury 28, at Montclair State 10
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Final
at Huntingdon 28, Maryville (Tenn.) 16
Video Box Score
Final
at Austin 33, Millsaps 19
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Final
at Mary Hardin-Baylor 65, Howard Payne 0
Video Box Score Recap
Final
at Washington U. 55, Buena Vista 20
Video Video Box Score Recap
Final
Alma 27, at Aurora 19
Video Box Score
Final
at Rockford 29, Concordia-Chicago 14
Video Box Score
Final
Wisconsin Lutheran 22, at Concordia (Wis.) 19
Video Box Score
Final
at Lakeland 57, Benedictine 21
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Final
at St. Norbert 10, Chicago 0
Video Box Score Recap
Final
Concordia-Moorhead 45, at Hamline 0
Video Box Score Recap
Final
St. Olaf 22, at Augsburg 20
Video Box Score Photos
Final
Bethel 24, at Gustavus Adolphus 3
Video Box Score
Final
St. John's 35, at Carleton 0
Video Box Score
Final
at Eureka 30, Greenville 19
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Final
Centre 27, at Trinity (Texas) 21
Video Box Score Recap Photos
Final
Dubuque 42, at Nebraska Wesleyan 27
Video Box Score
Final
Central 30, at Coe 19
Video Box Score Recap Photos
Final
Lake Forest 56, at Cornell 28
Video Box Score
Final
at Carthage 31, Elmhurst 8
Video Box Score Recap
Final
at Illinois Wesleyan 30, Carroll 0
Video Box Score
Final
Millikin 28, at Augustana 27
Video Box Score Recap
Final
Ripon 52, at Beloit 28
Video Box Score
Final
MacMurray 49, at Minnesota-Morris 13
Video
Final
Macalester 21, at Lawrence 18
Video Box Score
Final
at Monmouth 59, Illinois College 14
Video Box Score
Final
at UW-Stevens Point 26, UW-Eau Claire 3
Video Box Score Photos
Final
Case Western Reserve 63, at Thiel 28
Video Box Score Recap Photos
Final
at Wooster 38, Oberlin 28
Video Box Score
Final
Texas Lutheran 41, at East Texas Baptist 34
Video Box Score
Final
at UW-Stout 21, UW-River Falls 16
Box Score Recap
Final
UW-Oshkosh 28, at UW-Platteville 14
Video Box Score Photos
Final
Sewanee 34, at Birmingham-Southern 13
Video Box Score Recap
Final
at Hope 22, Adrian 3
Video Box Score Recap
Final
Linfield 49, at Lewis and Clark 14
Video Box Score
Cancelled
La Verne at Occidental
Video Live stats Audio
Final
Whitworth 17, at Pacific Lutheran 14
Video Box Score Photos Photos
Final
at Cal Lutheran 42, Claremont-Mudd-Scripps 20
Video Box Score
Final
at George Fox 58, Willamette 12
Video Video Box Score
Final
at Pacific 35, Puget Sound 27
Video Box Score Recap
Final
Pomona-Pitzer 45, at Whittier 23
Video Box Score
Final
at Western Connecticut 28, Massachusetts Maritime 21
Video Box Score Recap
Final
at St. Scholastica 56, Martin Luther 21
Video Box Score Recap
Final - 5OT
at St. John Fisher 39, Utica 36
Video Recap Live stats Audio
Final - OT
at Heidelberg 48, Otterbein 45
Video Preview Box Score Recap Audio Tickets
Final
at Shenandoah 38, Bridgewater 20
Box Score Recap Photos
Final
Southwestern 60, at Belhaven 31
Video Video Box Score
Final
Hardin-Simmons 35, at Sul Ross State 10
Box Score
Final
at Louisiana College 52, McMurry 34
Box Score
Final
at Simpson 38, Luther 17
Video Box Score
Final
at Chapman 45, Redlands 26
Video Video Box Score Recap Recap
Oct. 16: All times Eastern
Final
at Wheaton (Ill.) 42, North Central (Ill.) 20
Box Score Recap
Oct. 20: All times Eastern
7:00 PM
Gettysburg at Johns Hopkins
Video Video Live stats Live stats
Oct. 14: All times Eastern
Final
at Delaware Valley 49, King's 14
Video Box Score Recap Recap
Final - OT
at Cortland 20, Alfred 17
Box Score Recap Live stats
Final
at Wesley 29, Kean 9
Video Box Score Recap
Final
Frostburg State 59, at William Paterson 7
Video Box Score Recap Recap
Final
at Wittenberg 49, Allegheny 15
Video Box Score
Final
at Brockport 48, Morrisville State 7
Recap Box Score Video
Final
Washington and Jefferson 49, at Bethany 14
Video Box Score
Final
Ohio Wesleyan 16, at Wabash 13
Video Box Score Recap
Final
at Mount Union 72, Capital 14
Video Box Score Photos
Final
at Wartburg 42, Loras 11
Video Box Score
Final
at Berry 34, Hendrix 10
Video Box Score Recap
Final
Springfield 35, at Merchant Marine 13
Video Box Score Photos
Final
at Mary Hardin-Baylor 65, Howard Payne 0
Video Box Score Recap
Final
St. John's 35, at Carleton 0
Video Box Score
Final
at Illinois Wesleyan 30, Carroll 0
Video Box Score
Final
Concordia-Moorhead 45, at Hamline 0
Video Box Score Recap
Final
Case Western Reserve 63, at Thiel 28
Video Box Score Recap Photos
Final
UW-Oshkosh 28, at UW-Platteville 14
Video Box Score Photos
Final
Linfield 49, at Lewis and Clark 14
Video Box Score
Final
at George Fox 58, Willamette 12
Video Video Box Score
Final
Hardin-Simmons 35, at Sul Ross State 10
Box Score
Oct. 16: All times Eastern
Final
at Wheaton (Ill.) 42, North Central (Ill.) 20
Box Score Recap
Oct. 20: All times Eastern
7:00 PM
Gettysburg at Johns Hopkins
Video Video Live stats Live stats